All Hinges On Jameis

August 1st, 2019


It’s a big year for America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, and not just because of his bank account.

The near-term and maybe long-term future of the Bucs is in the balance. If Jameis has a kick-tail year, the decision is made. Jameis returns. If Jameis has an OK year, Jameis likely stays. If Jameis has a bad year, well, the Bucs likely draft a quarterback in April in the first round (but then, what happens with Bucco Bruce Arians and his staff?).

Breaking down the Bucs’ 2019 guesstimates using “Football Outsiders 2019 Almanac,” jet-flyin’, kiss–stealin‘, data-analyzin’, Bucs-film-studyin’, limousine-ridin’ Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times tries to see what the outcome may be for Jameis via crystal ball gazing.

His turnovers, though, are what keep him outside of the top 10 quarterback conversation. Though he should improve in that department over last season, Football Outsiders expects his turnover numbers to be in line with his career rates. The book projects 4,729 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and 10 fumbles.

Such a season will be just good enough to make the Bucs fret over the possibility of losing Winston in free agency and just bad enough to keep him from landing the big money multiyear contract extension he is seeking.

Look, regular readers know Joe more often than not defends Jameis and sees the good in his football ways. But one thing that drives Joe wild are the fumbles. That’s just careless and sloppy.

Joe knows a lot of fans grumbled because former coach Dirk Koetter rarely used Jameis on short-yardage runs up Ryan Jensen’s rear end. As big as Jameis is, that should be an easy one- or two-yard gain.

However, as sloppy as Jameis is with the ball as a runner, Joe is guessing Koetter didn’t trust him to hang on to the football in a scrum. Sadly, it was a dishonor richly deserved.

To Joe, Jameis’ fumbles are worse than his picks. And that may cost him tens of millions of dollars, not so much his picks.

37 Responses to “All Hinges On Jameis”

  1. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    With a running game, and some kind of defense, Jameis will be a better QB.
    I look for him to have a great year this year, in Arian’s offense.

  2. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    If Jameis fails, I don’t see an end to BA & staff……to the contrary….I see the Glazers not wanting to make wholesale changes….just draft a QB & they would want BA to make the selection and groom the QB.
    If Jameis fails….it will be on Jameis.
    I suspect BA’s fate will ride on how well the rest of the team progresses…..and if the do in the running game, kicking and defense….it’s hard for me to envision Jameis failing.

  3. Loyaltotheend Section 312 Says:

    BA is here for minimum 2 years he’s not gonna destroy his rep within the league because Jameis craps himself

    Until Jameis learns to protect the ball he will be a losing QB and this team will suck. Time to put that supposed high football IQ to work Jameis

  4. Bird Says:

    He will throw for 5,000 yards.
    He is Finally getting proper coaching and Arians has best receiver / tight end group in NFL. We have to many weapons. Arians will know how to play chess and break down a defense and make it easier for Jameis. Not to much on his shoulders.

    Turnovers – no clue ?
    However , with Less turnovers , we will win more games.
    I wanna say there was 7 or 8 one score games last year. That’s a lot.
    I Was thinking 8-8 at first.

    But with defense shining early. 9-7 a real possibility.

  5. EvolvingBucsFan Says:

    I agree, interceptions are going to happen especially with our passing attack the last few years and no running game. The fumbles killed us especially the field position as a result, interceptions at least they are usually down field, not that our defense could stop them anyway. As bad as our defense has been any turn over was another stress inducing scenario watching them give up the booty over and over. Hopefully this year will be different in many ways.

  6. BigPoppaBuc Says:

    Spot on, Joe… It’s the fumbles that make my eye twitch. They are usually the back breakers in a game. The ints are usually down field or in desperation time because our defense sucked.
    Such a rollercoaster this kid has been. I saw things in that Cincinnati game last year that I can’t unsee. Then I saw things in his last six games that had me thinking they should strike a deal with him over the off-season. The team around Winston should be an improvement and I have faith our kicking woes will be cured. The team will go as Jameis goes.

  7. Pittsshore Says:

    JW will be on the bench by week 6. They only kept him because of the FSU fan base that also support the Bucs. The Glazers would rather have 45K in the seats with him at QB over 30K if he is gone. It’s all about the caaaaash. Regarding the FSU fan base in Tampa: it’s almost as bad as the UM fan base that I deal with living in South Florida…..80% never attended FSU. To that point, why not pick a much better reputable University to pretend that you attended…..UF comes to mind

  8. Kobe Faker Says:

    “So the defensive coords going to easily let JW3 and BA pass downfield?

    They all going to attack nonstop to our weak oline and disrupt the run and pass attack

    Can leftwhich replace our hot outlet reciever Hump?

    We have the worst pass catching runningbacks in the NFL

    With the constant downhill pressure its not going to be pretty for JW3

    ints and fumbles not because of JW3 but because of the oline breakdowns

    BA will be eating his Kangol hat and humble pie by week 4”

    Kobe Faker

  9. AlteredEgo Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation. Says:

    Jameis hinges on the neglected OL….DC’s are going to expose the OL early and often…

  10. Buc1987 Says:

    Pittsshore…why are you always wrong?

    The Glazers don’t care about seats filled. They get paid either way.

    “Regarding the FSU fan base in Tampa”…wrong again. What FSU fan base? Every local Wal-Mart in the Tampa bay area is filled with Gator apparel and merchandise. FSU gear is hard to find. It’s been that way for a long while.

  11. Duthsty Rhothdes Says:

    The Bucs have had a top 5 passing attack in NFL past 2 years under Koetter and Arians has acknowledged that Dirk has done a great job with jameis; I dont understand people saying that Arians is going to change jameis? Like joe said and any objective fan can plainly see, jameis makes dumb turnovers at bad times. He needs to be the qb that kills the other team with a thousand cuts hopefully the defense can stop the other team this year.

  12. Defense Rules Says:

    @Joe … “The near-term and maybe long-term future of the Bucs is in the balance.”

    The near-term? Probably, because it’s hard seeing BA benching Jameis in favor of Gabbert or Griffin. The long-term future? Not hardly. Bucs are FINALLY getting back to some semblance of a BALANCED TEAM, and balanced teams IMO don’t depend on one critical cog. IF Jameis has a lousy or mediocre year, he won’t be re-signed, the Bucs will draft a QB in the 1st Rnd, and BA & his staff will groom him. On the good news side, we’ll be about $25 mil or so ahead, and can spend that (if we choose) to beef up the trenches.

    I’m still not sure how I feel about paying anyone but a VERY ELITE QB $30 mil per year or more to lead this team. That’s a huge chunk of a team’s salary Cap, and usually means that other position groups suffer. Bucs have several excellent players who’ll be looking to be paid big-time in a year or two (Godwin, OJ) plus quite a few on 1-year ‘try-before-buy’ contracts who, IF they work out, will want to be paid a LOT more also (Nassib, Barrett, Barber, Bucannon, etc).

    Personally I’d rather see us focus on the defensive side of the ball (Top-10 minimum, preferably Top-5) like Chicago & Baltimore have done, except with a somewhat better balance. Both are good running teams (#7 & #3 in rushing scoring) but don’t excel in passing game scoring (#14 & #26). For our part, the Bucs were #3 in passing game scoring, but only #23 in rushing scoring. Developing better balance would probably require beefing up the trenches & maybe adding an elite RB to the stable. But doing so would de-emphasize the passing game somewhat by default (more runs = fewer passes). I admit, I favor BALANCE. I prefer a TEAM led by a STRONG DEFENSE with a more BALANCED OFFENSE (pass-run more in the 55%-45% range as long as they BOTH get the job done). Doesn’t necessarily take an ELITE QB to accomplish that.

  13. Joe Says:

    The Glazers don’t care about seats filled. They get paid either way.

    That is not exactly wrong. That’s the NFL in general. If they really cared about rear ends in seats, the NFL wouldn’t have gotten rid of blackouts. TV money is the river of cash that floats the league.

    Would NFL owners prefer eight sellouts a year? Obviously, yes. However, you don’t see owners of teams that struggle to sell out games filing for bankruptcy.

  14. Says:

    Fear the Beard. Preseason Week 2 will be very interesting!

  15. Defense Rules Says:

    Joe … Out of curiosity, most of the time when I include a quote from you my comment goes into the ‘Awaiting Moderation’ dungeon. Oftentimes they don’t seem to come out until they’re irrelevant (which most of them probably are as soon as I write them).

    But my question: Are the quotes from you a trigger?

  16. Joe Says:

    The long-term future? Not hardly.

    Well, if the Bucs need a new quarterback, how many years do you give the guy to develop, if he develops? Pretty sure if you give another quarterback four years to develop, this roster looks drastically different than it does now.

  17. Joe Says:

    Joe … Out of curiosity, most of the time when I include a quote from you my comment goes into the ‘Awaiting Moderation’ dungeon. Oftentimes they don’t seem to come out until they’re irrelevant (which most of them probably are as soon as I write them).

    Been over this too many times to explain again. Just know Joe is not persecuting you in any way.

    Trust Joe, he has much more important things to do in his day than CONSTANTLY digging comments out of the moderation queue 19, 20 hours a day. You wouldn’t see half the number of stories on this site if all Joe did was stare at the moderation queue from 5 a.m. to past midnight like a mental patient.

    It’s more of a pain in the arse for Joe than it is for the commenters, trust Joe on this.

    (Generally, if you try to use HTML code in a comment, the spam filter is triggered.)

  18. Loyaltotheend Section 312 Says:

    To Joes point

    Jameis has 76 career turnovers
    18 of those are lost fumbles
    But he’s fumbled a total of 38 times in 56 career games

    Dudes gotta protect the ball, bottom line.

  19. BucsminsterFuller Says:

    After 5 years should we be asing the questions?
    I say NO, and no to a long term big money contract as well.

  20. Kobe Faker Says:

    “There is only 2 important must positions in a franchise to be successful

    its not left tackle

    QB and GM

    Gump has put this team as a hostage for another 2 years with the hiring of the retired delegator

    Defense rules, those are wet dreams without a competent GM making the moves

    Its very simple…


    Kobe Bubba Faker

  21. Morgus the Magnificent Says:

    He squeezes the ball into tight openings…no doubt about it. If he cuts down on TO’s he HAS to stop throwing passes that have a low chance of success. But he won’t because he’s an idiot. Same goes with fumbles. And I STILL can’t BELIEVE we’re going through Groundhog Day with Winston. Again. Haven’t we learned???

  22. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    @ Defense

    Join the club on being moderated and posts showing up much later….(too late to be pertinent)
    And,………of all the posts, I have never had one that wasn’t eventually published…, I guess they were all OK…..

  23. Ndog Says:

    I love all the fretting over Fumbles. But for some context here are the Fumbles from the pocket per year for four of the “greatest” QBs in our game today.

    Drew Brees: 4.9 fumbles per year
    Tom Brady: 5 fumbles per year
    Aaron Rodgers: 4.7 fumbles per year
    Andrew Luck: 6 fumbles per year
    Jameis Winston: 5.5 fumbles per year

    So while yes Jameis is higher than a few of them he is not totally out of line with the others. So like usual it is an issue for him but the others it seems to be just fine. Then factor in we cannot/won’t run the ball and we are frequently in known passing situations is he clearly doing any worse than the others listed? I’m not being a jerk but for real look at the facts and not just perception, he really is in line with the others at his position.

  24. 813bucboi Says:

    if he throws that many picks and has that many fumbles with only 28TD’s, he’s gone…..

    GO BUCS!!!!!

  25. D-Rome Says:

    If Jay-Miss turns the ball over 27 times bewtween fumbles and INTs then it’s time to move on.

  26. Defense Rules Says:

    @Joe … “(Generally, if you try to use HTML code in a comment, the spam filter is triggered.)” That explains a lot Joe. Thanks. Don’t want them carting you off to Bellview.

  27. Buccaroo Says:

    That’s 27 turnovers to 28 TD’s. How is that an acceptable performance?

  28. Defense Rules Says:

    Kobe Faker (aka, Bubba) … You tickle me Bubba; still thinking that Jason Licht is a critical cog in this new wheel. He didn’t control this last draft … it was BA’s & TB’s draft.

    And QBs don’t have to be ELITE or Uber-expensive to be effective on a BALANCED TEAM. Bucs won the 2002 Super Bowl with a #1 defense (196 Points Allowed) & a #18 offense (346 Points Scored … 5 TDs of which (35 pts) came DIRECTLY from the DEFENSE). Brad Johnson was a good game manager, but his 62% passing was just average).

    Ndog … Excellent point about Jameis’ fumbles not being totally out-of-line with many other QBs. But all the QBs who you picked (Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Luck) have all shown the ability through the years to ‘put a team on their back’ & lead them to the playoffs in the past. Interestingly though, all but Brady have struggled through losing seasons when their defenses sh_t the bed and/or their running games peed on themselves. look at Aaron Rodgers last year … #22 (scoring) defense, #15 rushing (scoring) & the Pack ended up with a 6-9-1 record. It takes a BALANCED TEAM (like the Patriots have perennially been) to win the whole enchilada.

  29. Buccaroo Says:

    I don’t even know why I’m being moderated. I thought this was normal for everyone. Forget about trying to have a normal conversation with other fans.

  30. Ozzie the Sports Junkie Says:

    The one variable or forgotten item is if #3 has a halfway decent but not 100% 5 yr mega deal type year the Bucs can always franchise him for one additional year for an extended look…I dont wanna see it but its a possibility..One way or another Keep him or let him go that MUST be decided this season or Bucco Bruce is wasting 2 years of what could have been sculpting a contender.. ..still tying to find ANY other NFL city that gives a QB 5 years to “work the kinks out”

  31. Rod Munch Says:

    Best QB in team history (well not counting Steve Young – who, while in Tampa, wasn’t very good).

    He’s getting paid, and the Winston haters will cry.

    I mean you literally have a QB that just lead the best offense in team history, in yards and points. Meanwhile the team had the worst defense in team history. Yet there’s idiots that will blame Winston and the offense for not getting it done.

    If you’re one of those people, do me a favor and get ebola, you’re too stupid to live.

    God bless.

  32. Defense Rules Says:

    Rod Munch … There’s something about telling people to “do me a favor and get ebola” and ending with “God bless” that REALLY don’t go together Rod. Not the first of your comments that’ve included words like “you’re too stupid to live”. Others are just stating their opinions, which you may or may not agree with. They’re not the ones who need help.

  33. tickrdr Says:



  34. BoltIsle Says:

    Pittsshore really has an unhealthy obsession with JW. Pharmaceuticals should help with your JW anxiety.
    He’s also never lived in the Bay Area based on his putting such a large percentage of the fan base as Noles. Always has been, and always will be, a HUGE Hogtown base. And probably 80% of those florida fans also never attended school in Hogtown.

  35. Clay Travis Says:

    My JAY-MISS hating brothers,

    Don’t let anyone know Tom Brady was a FUMBLE-MACHINE for his first 4 years starting in the NFL or that JAY-MISS turns the ball over at just about the same rate as most Hall of Fame QBs always have …

    WE will run JAY-MISS and his kind out of Tampa!!!!

    WE will WIN for WE are LEGION!!!!

  36. July Joe Says:

    The ONLY thing that Jameis needs to do different from last year to get a contract extension is end the season HEALTHY, that’s it.

    The only people that don’t understand this are those who think “stats are for losers” and that GMs draft and sign players based on the “team record” they had from the previous season, rather than how much talent they have,

    If Jameis finishes 2019:

    Top 5 in Raw QBR

    Top 8 in Total QBR

    #1 in the entire NFL under pressure

    #1 in the entire NFL on 3rd downs (#1 in conversion percentage and #4 in passer rating)

    and HEALTHY

    He will get a contract extension … even if the team goes 0-16.

    That would cause the Jameis-haters to lose their minds, but that’s just the way it is. No GM in their right mind is going to draft a midget nowhere near as talented as Jameis who just happens to have a great college W.L record because he plays on a college all-star team (i.e. Tua), or some other guy who is nowhere near as talented as Jameis (Herbert or Fromm) just because Jameis’ “t-e-a-m” crapped the bed and went 0-16 despite his excellent “individual” play.

    “Team fans” care about team wins … that makes many of them clueless when it comes to evaluating “individual” talent and performance.

  37. orlbucfan Says:

    So far, you get the impression from these posts that the whole team is playing with enthusiasm. That hasn’t happened in quite some time. Really sick of the constant HC carousel–I can only imagine how players like LVD feel. Jameis has had to contend with 3 different HCs and a horribly coached defense. He had to play constant catch-up. Still, Bucs only lost a boatload of games by a TD or less last season. Let’s see what happens when he quits playing catch-up, and the defense starts carrying its weight, and HELPS the offense win/finish games. 8/9 will be interesting to watch even if it is the first preseason game.