Salvaging Jameis
April 15th, 2019
Comparing picks with Matty Ice.
Here is something interesting to ponder.
Is Matty Ice really that much better than America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston? A look at the stats makes you think.
Loyal reader @Samer__Ali posed a question to Joe on Twitter over the weekend. He compared Matty Ice’s stats with Dirk Koetter in his first (and only) three years as Dixie Chicks offensive coordinator with Jameis in Koetter’s first three seasons.
The big hangup that the folks who want to run Jameis out of town have with him is his picks, which is a valid gripe. However, looking at interception percentage (percentage of passes that were picked), Jameis’ numbers were very close to Matty Ice’s.
Joe doesn’t know anyone that thinks Matty Ice is a stiff of a quarterback who should be thrown out of the league.
To be fair, Matty Ice threw for more touchdowns than Jameis, 86 to 69.
But the key question Joe was asked was how many of Jameis’ picks ended up in points for the opposition because the Bucs defense was a total slap in the face to both sober and drunk fans alike?
Joe doesn’t have the patience and time to go through each pick, but Joe does know the Bucs’ obscene defense the past two years did both Jameis and the Bucs no favors. Joe knows that in 2017, the defense vomited away four fourth-quarter leads. It was an outrage how badly the Bucs defense played.
Now Joe doesn’t believe Jameis is as good as Matty Ice. He may be someday, but not now. We will soon learn if Bucco Bruce Arians can fix Jameis, but it’s not like he’s trying to turn around some stiff like the Bucs had for a quarterback before drafting Jameis like Stewart McClown and Mike Glennon.
— Samer Ali (@Samer__Ali) April 13, 2019
April 15th, 2019 at 5:17 am
We have lacked an overall plan and obviously crappy execution has followed. Every player has been stuck in this quagmire. Not just Jamies. He’ll be fine, especially if he can play the way he did after his healthy scratch last year, which could be the turning point of his career.
In BA I trust!
April 15th, 2019 at 5:46 am
@Joe … “But the key question that Joe was asked was how many of Jameis’ picks ended up in points for the opposition because the Bucs defense was a total slap in the face to both sober and drunk fans alike?”
OK, you amazed me yet again Joe. On the 1 hand you acknowledge that Jameis threw too many picks (but don’t mention fumbles I might add which IMO are even more significant because of the ‘normally’ shorter field that results). Then with the other hand you chastise the defense for not bailing Jameis out of those crappy situations which HE CREATED.
Why can’t they BOTH just stand on their own Joe? Jameis threw 58 INTs during the last 4 years & fumbled it away another 38 times for a total of 96 turnovers (an average of 24 per year). In those same 4 years, the Bucs’ defense got 50 INTs & recovered 92 fumbles for a total of 142 turnovers (an average of 35.5 per year). Admittedly that doesn’t include the OTHER INTs & fumbles that the Bucs’ OFFENSE committed (just focusing on Jameis like you did).
Bottom line though is that although our defense sucked (during these past 2 years especially), you’re holding them responsible for the RESULTS of Jameis’ turnovers without giving them CREDIT for turning the ball back over 142 times to that same Bucs’ offense to score … OR NOT SCORE as the case may be. ACCOUNTABILITY works BOTH ways.
And although it’s rarely mentioned, Jameis has had the good fortune of throwing to some of the best receivers in the NFL (so has Matty Ice BTW). He’s had decent (but certainly not outstanding) pass protection during his time here. Personally I would expect that a QB given those advantages SHOULD do better than his counterparts. Especially since gaining those offensive advantages (via the draft & FA & salary Cap?) came largely at the expense of building a Lichts-Out defense.
April 15th, 2019 at 6:41 am
An area Jameis can improve on is the deep pass. He has had around 40 passes
over 20 yards completed for the last 3 years. He had over 60 in his first year
which was very good. Some of this may be because of the running game ,which
was also very good. But better footwork will also help improve the all important
big plays in the passing game.
Just a couple of examples
As a comparison Majomes completed 80 passes over 20 yards. After Hunt’s
release ,KC also didn’t have much of a running game. Who had the most passes
over 20 yards? Big Ben with 90. I look for Jameis to crack 60 this year as he did in his rookie year with Koetter.
April 15th, 2019 at 7:00 am
Defense Rules Says:
“Jameis threw 58 INTs during the last 4 years & fumbled it away another 38 times for a total of 96 turnovers”
Winston “fumbled it away” 16 times in 4 years – not 38…..
Fumbles recovered are not turnovers DR. C’mon man – you are better than that.
We all know Winston has had issues with turnovers – but you can’t just add an extra 22 to his career total out of nowhere…..
Matt Ryan is definitely over rated as an NFL QB btw.
April 15th, 2019 at 7:12 am
Has Matty Ice ever gotten himself in the kind of trouble that caused him to have to sit out a few games? The physical gifts and talent are certainly there with Jameis, but so too are the turnovers and immaturity. It pains me to say I don’t think Jameis will ever be as good a QB as Ryan (and it’s not like Matty Ice is a future Hall of Famer). Best we can probably hope for is for Jameis to become better than Cam Newton…which let’s be real, that isn’t exactly setting the bar sky high.
April 15th, 2019 at 7:28 am
Does the INT’s into points count if it was a pick six? Do you have any stats for that? Or if the ball was tipped and intercepted or just thrown directly into the defenders hands? Any stats for those? How about throwing into double or triple coverage when there is a open receiver that results in another INT. Any stats for that? Winston is an okay QB, he has potential but has had issues putting that into action play after play after play game after game after game, season after season. This is his 5th season coming up, his last chance here if he does not become consistent with his QB play.
GO Bucs!
April 15th, 2019 at 7:48 am
@ pickgren
NfL stats shows 18 fumbles lost. All fumbles are usually momentum killers or lost plays. Jameis does need to improve on protecting the ball.
On another note, can you share why you think Ryan is overrated. He did fail to win the superbowl. I am a firm believer in stepping on a team’s throat and keeping the pressure on. That didn’t happen the second half. But part of the problem was the defense was either gassed or thought they had the game won.
Gotta give it to Brady he takes a licking and keeps on ticking. With him at the helm I would venture to say they are the best second half team in football.
April 15th, 2019 at 7:59 am
Ive said it all along dirks offense gives up tons of sacks and a lot of interceptions due to longer developing plays that put more pressure on the offensive line and more time for the dbs to get to the ball because its being thrown downfield on most plays with little threat of a running game to keep the underneath coverage honest.
April 15th, 2019 at 8:01 am
A wise man once said.
3 kinds of lies:
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
April 15th, 2019 at 8:01 am
Winstons stats would look considerably better if he could understand the concept of utilizing a check down. Go back and look at stats for RBs in Koetter’s system at Atlanta vs ours….Koetter definitely coaches the check down
April 15th, 2019 at 8:16 am
What about all the passes Winston threw at defenders that they dropped? All these cherry picked stats give an incomplete picture of Jameis through his first years on the NFL.
If you’ve watched him play, you would know he has NOT been elite (although has briefly flashed moments here and there) and has been wildly inconsistent with a ton of momentum killing turnovers etc. Consistency is the key trait of all the top QB’a. As a number 1 overall draft pick you expect him to be able to put the team on his back and win games…something he has yet to do in the NFL.
Let’s hope he turns it around this year with BA, otherwise it’s time to cut bait. Simple as that.
April 15th, 2019 at 8:20 am
@Pickgrin … “Winston “fumbled it away” 16 times in 4 years – not 38. Fumbles recovered are not turnovers DR. C’mon man – you are better than that.” LMAO Pickgrin (apparently I’m NOT better than that). Love it when JBFers dig back into the stats to call each other on miscues (keeps us all ‘sharper’?).
Pro-Football-Reference just used ‘Fumbles’ without further detailing whether or not they resulted in turnovers (should’ve looked deeper … my bad). Teamrankings.com (NFLstats) though breaks them out deeper (and yes, Jameis only had 18 in the 4 years, not 38). (Good catch Bob). Still, leading the league in Fumbles Lost in both 2016 & 2017 isn’t good to be sure. I suspect though that BA will ‘fix’ that problem this year.
April 15th, 2019 at 8:22 am
Also for everyone that says he has sooo much talent and potential those are the two most dangerous words in the NFL. See Ryan Leaf and all the other uber “talented” players that never actually make it in the NFL. College and the pro’s are two different games. Jameis has yet to show he can make it as top notch or even average QB in the pro game. Let’s hope BA gets the most out of him.
As a bucs fan I would love nothing more than for him to live up to the hype and draft status. Color me skeptical until he shows us he can. Huge year for JW.
April 15th, 2019 at 8:25 am
Stop blaming everyone but Jameis for the turnovers
April 15th, 2019 at 8:31 am
What should fans expect from Winston to think he was improving?
For me, it would start with, at MINIMUM, throwing twice as many TDs as INTs;
a TD/INT ratio of at least 2:1.
Secondly, most of the playoff QBs have a TD percentage greater than 5.0% or more, which Jameis finally reached this last year for the first time.
And finally, his TD% MINUS his INT% needs to be greater than 3.0 or more, which is the threshold for most of the QBs in the playoffs.
While nothing in a football game occurs in a vacuum, the above criteria ARE ACHIEVED by the best QBs in the NFL, and independent of the performance of the rest of the team.
The QB’s play should meet the above standards fairly consistently in order to be judged “good” QB play, even if his passing yards, completion percentage, and QBR are “good”, ESPECIALLY since JW3’s pedigree is the #1 overall first pick in the draft.
In other words, it is great if a QB limits turnovers like Alex Smith, but at the very same time, he must throw enough TD passes to win the game. Yes, JW3 limited turnovers those last several games, and threw the ball out of bounds at times, but at the same time the offense did NOT score many points! You need BOTH from the play of an “elite” QB.
tickrdr
April 15th, 2019 at 8:42 am
If Joe knows Winston isn’t as good at Matty, why in the hell are we going through this useless exercise?
April 15th, 2019 at 8:43 am
The simple truth is if you ignore wins and losses, Jameis is just about equal to Matt Ryan. The stats prove it.
Cam Newton is actually the worst QB in the division.
April 15th, 2019 at 9:06 am
All I gotta say is the #s are there to support Joe’s point.
Quite possibly Koetter was the worst offensive coach a guy with Jameis’s troubles could have had.
Then again, people just like to Bit$h.
I’m sure half of the people on this board jumped on the “Tiger’s an idiot” bandwagon too, saying he is washed up and will never win another Major!!! LMAO
Sportsbooks all over the country flat out lost their A$$.
April 15th, 2019 at 9:14 am
Bonzai,
Ryan has a career 65 % completion average. His career touchdown ratio is approximately 2 to one .Last year he had 35 TD’s to 6 INT’s for 108.6 rating, there is no comparison at this point in Jameis career.
April 15th, 2019 at 9:19 am
who cares about matty ice…..he’ll regress under dirk…..lol….
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!
April 15th, 2019 at 9:20 am
We’re going to see.
The funny thing about statistics is the ability to argue more than one point using the same #’s. Sure, the statistics “say” Jameis and Matt are similar. Those same stats also say that the Bucs offense is top 10.
Now, for people who actually watch the games, tell me in what universe Matt and Jameis are similar? Tell me how “great” our offense is on a 5-11 football team.
April 15th, 2019 at 9:33 am
Harping on the first 4 seasons of Winston is a futile exercise. A 21 year old knucklehead thrown in to save a 2-14 team with a bad defense.
I prefer to look ahead and see maybe what can be. After a disastrous start to 2018 including a benching, Winston looked like the #1 overall pick the last 6 1/2 games.
278 pass yds per game
26 rush yds per game
13/2 real TD/INT ratio
64% completion %
If we see this Winston going forward what will his stats look like for 2019.
4478 yds passing
416 yds rushing
32/5 real TD/INT ratio
64% completion %
I don’t expect the rushing yardage nor a 32/5 TD/INT ratio but better days ahead for Jameis Winston. Getting up to 66-67% completion % I can see. He’s improved there every year.
April 15th, 2019 at 9:44 am
Comparing Winston to Matt Ryan is a major insult to Ryan.
There really is no comparison whatsoever. Ryan is a proven winner at the professional level and Winston has proven absolutely nothing. Ryan will be a starter in the league for as long as he wants, and Winston after this year will turn into a journeyman backup and then be gone.
April 15th, 2019 at 10:00 am
I really wonder if half of you’ll actually watch the games. Over half of these ‘fumbles’ were either bad snaps, good handoffs that were dropped, or blindside sacks when the defender came in completely unblocked. Jameis is way more careful with the ball in close games down 3 scores late he’s gonna try to make something happen. I like the fact Jameis cares more about winning than his own personal stats. It leads to more turnovers at the end of the year but in many situations it can give you a chance to win. They put a decent team around him one year and won 9 games. If they put a good team he’ll get to the playoffs every year. JW3 is not the problem!
April 15th, 2019 at 10:14 am
Fingers crossed
April 15th, 2019 at 5:19 pm
If you throw out wins and losses…
Hahahahahahaha
April 16th, 2019 at 7:12 am
“To be fair, Matty Ice threw for more touchdowns than Jameis, 86 to 69.”
Matty also played more games. Thats not fair, thats apples to oranges.