Odds Are Against Koetter

December 21st, 2018

NFL history not kind.

Bucs Bit-O-Honey-snacking, Ozark-watching, yams-eating coach Dirk Koetter is in a pickle.

We all know the history of Team Glazer: You have two consecutive losing season as Bucs coach and unless you once hoisted a Vince Lombardi Trophy aloft in victory for the Bucs, you are toast.

Koetter and the Bucs secured yet another losing season last week with a loss to the Crows, as Koetter is about to finish his third season in charge. All playoff-less seasons (a revolting habit around these parts).

Greg Auman of The Athletic points out that if recent NFL history repeats itself, Koetter is at best a coin flip to return for his fourth season and if he doesn’t, his future as an NFL head coach is bleak.

In the last 20 years, there have been 20 head coaches finish Year 3 without a playoff appearance, and 10 were fired after that third season, though all had worse overall records than Koetter, who is 19-27. None of those 10 fired have returned to a full-time head coaching role since being dismissed.

But of the 10 head coaches brought back for a fourth season without making the playoffs, seven were ultimately fired during or after that fourth season. The best outcome for such a coach will be on the opposite sideline from Koetter on Sunday, in the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett.

Garrett missed the playoffs in each his first three years in Dallas, then went 12-4 in his fourth year and is now in line for his third division title in five seasons this year. But Garrett went 8-8 in each of those first three seasons, so his teams were much more on the cusp of the postseason than the Bucs have been the past two years.

Auman also quoted Brian Billick for this story. Billick is the brother-in-law of defrocked Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith (damn, Joe would love to be a fly on the wall in Billick’s office). Billick offered another reason why Koetter is doomed: Coaches hired to develop a quarterback but said quarterback regresses are doomed.

When Koetter benched America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, after his rotten game against Cincinnati, Joe wrote at the time that Koetter was essentially raising the white flag in surrender.

If Billick’s words come true, Koetter’s move to bench Jameis may have been the final straw for Team Glazer.

35 Responses to “Odds Are Against Koetter”

  1. doolnutts Says:

    Teams a mess… I don’t even know who could come in here to fix it. I am not going to blame Winston, Defense, coaching whatever I blame them all. We are like a broken compass with an endless spin… Until the Glazers hire a President of Football ops to actually come up with some kind of game plan we are doomed.

  2. 813bucboi Says:

    that has been my point all along…..dirk was promoted so he can get winston to the next level…..instead winston has regressed…along with other players under dirks leadership…..

    dirk failed and now its time for @realist to help him pack his U-HAUL…..


  3. lewis Says:

    I don’t like this coach but I was hoping we would improve and not go threw this but there is to much wrong and it feels like the 80 s early 90 s when you start not caring and that’s where I am at .

  4. Andrew Says:

    The reason it wouldn’t surprise me for the Glazers to try and throw money at this coaching problem, especially one that can fix Jameis. (Harbaugh)

    1) The Glazers piled money into Ray Jay only to see attendance plummet. They announced $100M after Jameis’ rookie year, pretty much betting that Jameis would fill the stadium and they would profit from better amenities. That hasn’t been the case. This was way more than their lease required them to invest. They are likely losing money on that investment, not getting a return like they thought.

    2) Having to rid yourself of a #1 overall qb hurts, especially when we’ve seen Jameis look talented in stretches. He’s 25 and is a competitor. Look at Phillip Rivers right now. The Glazers would gladly pay up for a big coach to get a clear indication on what they have in Jameis.

    3) ManU is a mess. And is their main focus.

  5. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    So…Koetter will be canned for benching Jameis?
    Or canned for not developing Jameis?
    Or canned for Licht bringing in poor kickers?

    Take your pick…..

  6. SOEbuc Says:

    People keep saying what coach would come here? All the Bucs need is a good HC that can put together a staff and maybe a new GM. Licht has a lot better chance to stay than Koetter. The Bucs are atop of all the other teams that look to be firing their HC’s at the end of the year when it comes to talent. Have a lot of young talent that can be corrected.

  7. Bucsfanman Says:

    Andrew- Rivers has always been one of the most underrated QBs in the NFL. I’m not sure that the comparison fits. I get your point though.

  8. SOEbuc Says:


    “The Glazers piled money into Ray Jay only to see attendance plummet. They announced $100M after Jameis’ rookie year, pretty much betting that Jameis would fill the stadium and they would profit from better amenities.”

    I’ve been saying for a long time now that they need to put some kind of canopies for shade at Ray Jay like the Dolphins have. Even if our team sucked, I would go to a lot more games and they might not have to give away tickets to a huge rivalry game. And it’s a fact the Glazers are good friends with Trump. Can anyone say…climate change.

  9. SOEbuc Says:


    “The Glazers piled money into Ray Jay only to see attendance plummet. They announced $100M after Jameis’ rookie year, pretty much betting that Jameis would fill the stadium and they would profit from better amenities. That hasn’t been the case. This was way more than their lease required them to invest. They are likely losing money on that investment, not getting a return like they thought.”

    Bucs need to put up canopies for shade like the Dolphins and stop having to hand out tickets to major division games. I would and I think a lot more Bucs fans would to games with a shadier environment. Everyone that watches the news in the Tampa Bay area sees there is continuous record breaking for every year. Maybe wouldn’t have to hand out tickets for huge rivalry game.

  10. SOEbuc Says:

    *continuous record breaking heat every year.

  11. SOEbuc Says:

    ^^”I would and I think a lot more Bucs fans would to games with a shadier environment.”^^

    Even if we sucked gigantic testicles

  12. Pete I Says:

    The Dolphins did a great Job making Hard Rock shaded and more comfortable. The Glazers did nothing at Ray Jay that comes close.

  13. Not there yet Says:

    Any coach with a clue could come here and improve this team overnight. Koetter is just trash, he’s a coordinator who knows nothing about being a head coach.basically the failure is on the glazers for bringing in loser coaches to change a loser culture. It’s very odd and if they haven’t learned by now they need a proven winner they never will

  14. Bucsfanman Says:

    SOE- That would be a welcome addition at Ray-Jay. Shelter from the sun AND the rain! Yea, there’d be more people at the games for sure.

  15. Bucamania Says:

    That’s what happens when you show everyone you’re not head coaching material.

  16. Bucs Fan #7423 Says:

    Jamies started playing a lot better after Koetter benched him. He started turning the ball over a lot less.

    Now the problem is that Jamies can’t throw 4 touchdowns without turning the ball over 3 times a game.

    Who fault is that? Koetter… Jamies? Elite quarters can throw 4 touchdowns a game with 0 turn overs.

    One day you guys are gonna just have to accept that Jamies needs a babysitter

  17. LakeLand Says:

    Dirk Koetter was the wrong guy to develop Jameis Winston

    Jason Licht and Lovie Smith screwed that up big time

  18. LakeLand Says:

    Dirk Koetter offense is a pass happy vertical offense
    Not a good fit for Jameis Winston and his strengths

    But the part of this mess I don’t understand:
    Mike Bajakian the QB coach
    His only experience with QB was at the college level
    His only pro experience was with the Chicago Bears

    He was Lovie Smith Offensive Quality Control coach from 2004-2006
    I believe he was hand picked by Lovie to develop Jameis Winston
    I maybe wrong, but that’s my theory

  19. tickrdr Says:

    Congrats to the Joes on Jameis Winston! He is like the “Jelly of the Month” club from Christmas vacation. The gift that keeps on giving.
    He was drafted with the hope of being the franchise QB who could unite and excite the fanbase, but instead has completely divided the fanbase as evidenced on these very comment sections, and there seem to be thousands of others like me who gave up their season tickets, because it’s not worth the cost or the “hassle”.


  20. Tampa Bay Demon Says:

    ^ You already posted that.

  21. Ghingus Kwon Says:

    hashtags in a forum post?

  22. pelbuc Says:

    Jason Gump ruined this team and that’s saying a lot considering he took over from Domink. The front office has been clueless for a long time!

  23. Bucs Fan #7423 Says:

    What exactly is “Jameis’s Strengths” ?????????

    And what type of offense would fit those “strengths” ??

  24. LakeLand Says:

    His strengths are getting the ball to the RB, TE and Slot WR

    Throwing the deep pass is a weakness

    Not a strength

  25. LakeLand Says:

    He need more YAC from his receivers

    He get it from Hump and OJ

    The rest of them has to step up

  26. Alaskan Abdominal Snowman Says:

    Uh oh someone didn’t follow forum decorum.
    Have no fear, Ghingus (Genghis?) Kwon is on the job!

  27. Alaskan Abdominal Snowman Says:

    I think Jameis’ strengths are the seam routes, posts, hooks, wheels, crossing routes, and maybe the hardest throw, out throws. Also his ability to get out of the pocket and create offense on the fly is very good.
    His deep ball struggles are over exaggerated IMO, I think because many people only watch full games of the Bucs, they assume when watching highlights that other QBs just connect on every deep pass. I think Jameis is just average with the deep ball.
    I don’t think it’s a matter of what throws he can make. To me it’s just when he is comfortable and can set his feet, there is a notable difference in his game. When he gets hit a lot early, it’s like his internal clock speeds up and he rushes things a lot more.
    Consistency will be the key going forward, we need more good Jameis and that will also be a result of others around him as well.
    Can’t wait for next year.

  28. Howard Cosell Says:

    Other, better run teams, are salivating at the prospect of having Koetter or Monken or Winston on staff or roster.
    I wish all 3 of them the best in their awesome new lives outside of purgatory

  29. Kobe Faker Says:

    “Kobe has stated 3 years ago, that there was something wrong and weird why Klueless didnt get a offensive coordinator. Even every playcalling Headcoach has a offensive coordinator to assist in the weekly game planning and bouncing ideas and such

    But Klueless has personality issues. Insecurity, lack of judgement, awareness and common sense

    Klueless finally gets Monken the relievers coach to help as an offensive coordinator after 2 years

    what does Klueless do with the important recievers coach position that Monken coached the previous 2 years?

    Klueless hires a first time ever receivers coach Skylar Fulton. an arizona state graduate with absolutely no experience

    LOL. Mesean doesnt even acknowledge Monken, what will a 1st time ever recievers coach going to do? The Buc Realist is as qualified to teach a seam pass route than this Kenny Bell gofer, with this incompetent newbie coach, both Godwin and Brate cant catch a cold

    Klueless doesnt know how to use players correctly in their positions and he doesnt know how to hire coaches…

    For 3 years we had a aloof position coach as Head coach of an NFL franchise

    Klueless and Gump will be known as the worst incompetent unqualified hires in the history of the NFL”

    Kobe Faker

  30. 813bucboi Says:


    you cant blame lovie….lol…

    when lovie was here, we something that helped winston out a ton….a run game….

    but since the run game has been gone, winston has had to carry the team in a system that doesnt fit him which has made him regressed….

    blame the folks that have been in OBP for the past 3years….not someone who hasnt been here for 3years….


  31. 813bucboi Says:


  32. Jean Lafitte Says:

    “The Season Jameis Killed Coach Koetter”

  33. Alaskan Abdominal Snowman Says:

    Fitz 2-6
    Jameis 3-3
    Yaaaa “The Season of the Haters”

  34. LakeLand Says:


    But Lovie was responsible for Licht, Koetter and most of the offensive coaching staff, coming to Tampa.

  35. FortMyersDave Says:

    I think the only thing we have to realize about Lovie is that he is bunkered down in Champagne guiding the fighting Illini to an finishes at the bottom of the Big 10 along with Rutgers……