Projection Not Good

November 1st, 2018

Projects Bucs’ season.

If a stats chick has her algorithms right, the Bucs will have their seventh losing season this decade, but not by much.

Cynthia Frelund decided run every number she has through all sorts of programs to determine who will make the playoffs and who won’t.

And Frelund’s software suggests for the 11th straight season, the Bucs will miss out.

Current record: 3-4. Projected playoff percentage: 10.3.

The Bucs have the NFL’s worst red-zone defense and a lot of volatility on offense. I ran the model with both Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The 6.8 you see above is a blended result. If Fitz continues to start, the number increases to 7.2 — meaning he gives the Bucs almost a half-game uptick.

So there you have it. Her info shows there is no marked upgrade by having journeyman backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick starting over America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.

If Joe is stuck on his couch and the batteries go out on his remote, at least Frelund is much easier on the eyes than, say, Michael Fabiano.

The five most feared words in the broadcast medium are “We bring in Michael Fabiano.”

19 Responses to “ Projection Not Good”

  1. Lamarcus Says:

    Um can she break down our historical record u know the .38 win percentage to see how many years it would take to that number .500 ??

  2. ATrain Says:

    No marked upgrade

    So what would her information have to show for Joe to say Fitz is an upgrade?
    Best player should play period

    But in true fashion let’s keep Capt INT

    Oh wait can’t say Capt his TEAM won’t put the C on his chest

    but some ignore anything negative about Winston

  3. Trench War Says:

    6.8 to 7.2. …So we can all assume by your own statement that Jameis Winston is no better than a washed up 35 y.o. backup? Is this our franchise QB you speak of? If that’s the case, then keep Fitz. He’s cheaper. Bubble-wrap JW so he don’t get hurt.

  4. Topcoach1978 Says:

    Joe you’re trying bro I give you that, you’re a true friend smh I guess she has it all figured out!

  5. Donkc Says:

    C’mon Joe! You’re always trying to put lipstick on a pig. Instead of your “there you have it” take, the rest of the world sees “journeyman QB gives Bucs a better chance at winning than ‘franchise’ quarterback.” Your spin doctoring reminds me of someone in Washington…..

  6. Knoxville Buc Fan Says:


  7. Bucs fan #7423 Says:

    Week by week guys, stats don’t matter

  8. LakeLand Says:

    And they are tied for LAST in the NFC South

  9. LakeLand Says:

    The Bucs will be home in January

    Watching the “good” teams compete

  10. MBuc Says:

    I still giggle when JoeBuc rips Fitzpatrick while the stats people say he’s better and one is crowned a “franchise QB”, the other? A backup.


    If Fitz is so bad your franchise QB shouldn’t be in the same sentence, that’s a you problem.

  11. 813bucboi Says:

    clean house!!!!!

    Kris Richard for HC!!!!!!


  12. Gobucs Says:

    I love the “pro bowler” stuff.

    He got in because others didn’t wanna go lol.

    He didn’t play his way into the pro bowl.

  13. Ra'Shad Says:

    Dude said Kris Richard for HC.. Dayum!!!! She’s easy on the eye but the hell with her numbers. Her numbers along with chubby Maurice Jones-Drew said the bucs would only win two games this season. The bucs will beat the panthers.. I wish you guys could hear the sports talk radio station here in Charlotte. They are already talking about next weeks opponent.

  14. Sharkiebucfan Says:

    Team is dooomed, no franchise qb, new coaching staff and front office next year. Like I’ve suggested before, it’s time to bring out the brown paper bags. Franchise is a joke.

  15. D-Rome Says:

    Her info shows there is no marked upgrade by having journeyman backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick starting over America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.

    What you think, I think, or Cynthia Frelund thinks doesn’t matter. The organization and players think they are better with Fitz. It can’t be all about Jameis any more. We all should move on.

  16. Not there yet Says:

    There is no quarterback on this roster that can get this team more than 3 wins not with this pathetic head coach. 5-11 Fitz and Winston get 1 apiece but not one in Atlanta, no idea how they get the other. Probably once again in the last game of the season trying to save dork Koetter so he can allow them another year to slack off while getting a big game check

  17. Dubcity06 Says:

    D-Rome is absolutely correct!!!

  18. westernbuc Says:

    I don’t know what that stat means, I just know that Fitz is playing better than Jameis. This site is turning into FSU’s PR department

  19. Darin Says:

    I think she is the one who had the Bucs at 2-14 before the season. Her software is.. what she hears from others she repeats. Not sure why she gets air time, not a fan. Nothing to do with Bucs prediction either. She doesnt know football too well.