Searching For An Answer
August 29th, 2018
“Riddle me this… “
Joe isn’t sure if he has solved the puzzle or not.
The Bucs had one of the best passing offenses last year, and that was with a quarterback who had a bum shoulder and missed three games as a result, America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston. The Bucs averaged 272 yards a game, which was fourth in the NFL.
But when the Bucs got into the red zone, they melted down. So last night when Joe was researching, a stat was found that may explain why.
Keyword here is “may.”
It seems, per Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders, typing for BSPN, Jameis was the third-most aggressive passer in the NFL.
Winston joins Wentz and Rodgers as the only quarterbacks to throw their average third-down pass more than 10 yards down the field last year. This has been a fairly consistent part of Winston’s three-year career in Tampa Bay. He finished fifth in 2016. The addition of DeSean Jackson did not really help the offense last season, but Winston still has a deep receiving corps to work with.
Could it be, since Jameis is used to winging the ball downfield, that he and the offense just got bogged down in the red zone because there really isn’t room to throw deep?
This may be an answer. But in Kacsmar’s list, the other four quarterbacks in his top-five, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Tom Brady and Cam Newton didn’t have any trouble scoring in the red zone despite being aggressive.
Maybe the answer to the riddle is the simple fact that Doug Martin stunk last year, thus, the Bucs had no run game to rely on deep in enemy territory?
August 29th, 2018 at 9:06 am
the answer is simple…..SCHEME!!!!
tough to run 4verts in the red zone!!!!!!
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
August 29th, 2018 at 9:08 am
also having to throw the ball against prevent defenses at the games lends to padding stats
August 29th, 2018 at 9:14 am
A genuine running game will help this situation inside the red zone.
August 29th, 2018 at 9:27 am
2 starting Offensive linemen are no longer on the team is another explanation
August 29th, 2018 at 9:37 am
Non-existent running game + constantly playing from behind = hella passing yardage. JW is excellent in between the 20s, it’s when the field gets shorter that he can get baited into ill-advised behavior.
August 29th, 2018 at 9:40 am
if the run game was the problem i think peyton barber will fix it and find the yards in short yardage situations
August 29th, 2018 at 9:44 am
Where’s Vea?
August 29th, 2018 at 9:46 am
813- Exactly, play-calling! Short passing game? Anyone ever hear of that?
August 29th, 2018 at 9:50 am
This is simple
Aaron Rodgers one of the best to ever play
Carson Wentz great run game
Tom Brady one of the best to ever play
Cam Newton great run game including himself
Jameis will get there but for arguments sake, lets go look at both Rodgers and Bradys redzone numbers in their 3rd year.
Brady first:
59 attempts 28 comp so that is 47.5% comp%
TD 19 INT 0
QB Rating 88.0
Rodgers next: (Much smaller sample size)
5 attempts 5 comp so that is 100% comp%
TD 1 INT 0
QB Rating 130.4
Winston last:
42 attempts 21 so that is 50% comp%
TD 12 INT 0
QB Rating 102.3
August 29th, 2018 at 10:00 am
That just shows how bad the playcalling was on 1st and 2nd down. I saw an article where the bucs were the worst team running. The football on 1st and 2nd down. Which led to us having the longest third down yardage to gain. So that is the reason for his 3rd down passes going ten plus yards when it is always 3rd and 8 or more of course he is going to throw it 10 yards. I think the red zone was playcalling. We would do a pitch and a run up the middle just because we have a stubborn coach who believes and has stayed that good teams run the ball in the red zone. Then on third we would throw the opposing team would now this and would blitz forcing jameis to get rid of the ball early and off timing. I think we need to do some more rpo in the red zone and have jameis rolling out. Where he can suck a linebacker up to have a better throwing lane or he can try to run in in himself. He had a lot of touchdowns rushing early in his career.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:44 am
Just take a gander at our 0-6 performance in the redzone against the panthers. Our offensive line got taken advantage of by a more physical team.
Not to say that the Oline was to blame all season long for poor redzone play. But I am going to say that they didn’t do their part. Just like the running game.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:46 am
Just bring in Fritz when in the red zone and problem solved. For whatever reason, while Glennon was a bust outside the red zone, he was really good inside the red zone, though it usually took a turnover for him to get there. That tells me that it isn’t the play calling!
August 29th, 2018 at 10:53 am
813bucboi Says
“the answer is simple…..SCHEME!!!!”
I gotta disagree on this one.
The scheme is fine. The offense moved up and down the field very well. A bad scheme does not do that. The offense came from behind to take the lead several times. A bad scheme does not do that. Sure, I think there were a couple bad play calls, no one is perfect, but for the most part, it all came down to this:
• Execution
• Opposing defenses bent but did not break
• Lack of experience and development
Hopefully, this is the year those things change.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:56 am
According to that same article Jameis was also the 3rd most valuable and the 3rd most accurate.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:56 am
Already wrote about those elements.
August 29th, 2018 at 11:02 am
JohnLynchBrokeMyBody47 Says:
August 29th, 2018 at 9:37 am
Non-existent running game + constantly playing from behind = hella passing yardage. JW is excellent in between the 20s, it’s when the field gets shorter that he can get baited into ill-advised behavior.
Really, below are Jamies numbers last year in the red zone. Man look at all those bad decisions: # no what you are talking about before opening your mouth:
Winston last:
42 attempts 21 so that is 50% comp%
TD 12 INT 0
QB Rating 102.3
August 29th, 2018 at 11:04 am
Joel this is an article about our offense in the red zone
August 29th, 2018 at 11:26 am
Yes – the lack of a running game is the primary reason the 2017 Bucs had trouble scoring TDs once in the red zone.
But Joe as usual fails to acknowledge that the OLine’s failures were every bit as responsible for that as Doug Martin was.
We had the 2 worst starting run blocking Guards in the league. Those guys are both gone for a reason.
Its OK Joe. You can admit it. Go ahead and mouth the words with me – “The Bucs OLine was way sub-par in 2017”
See – that wasn’t so hard. The truth shall set you free!
August 29th, 2018 at 11:34 am
Bonzai- I only partially agree with that statement. Play-calling and adjustments are part of scheme. Koetter was overly predictable last year. It’s why we weren’t able to capitalize in certain situations. Teams KNEW what was coming.
There are ways to overcome weaknesses in your game. Adjustments are part of the game. AND, when you’re as bad as the Bucs have been, what’s to lose by tinkering?!
August 29th, 2018 at 11:36 am
#1 = Lack of run game
#2 = poor usage of personnel and poor designs/calls at times
#3 = lack of execution by players – primarily O-line
We had a lot of O-line penalties it seemed in the red zone.
In general – the highest efficiency red zone teams typically have great run games or average at worst. I think only 1 or 2 teams in the top 10 of red zone efficiency had bad run games.
August 29th, 2018 at 11:46 am
bonzai
if the scheme is fine, why cant we score?…..
you say execution….well, that’s BS….execution was fine between the 20’s…..so what happened….
you say bend don’t break defense…..well that’s BS….if the “scheme” was fine, they wouldn’t have a problem scoring….much like how smitty ‘s bend don’t break defense worked….
you say lack of experience and development…..well that’s BS…dirk has had the same scheme for 4years now…..everyone from Winston to Dotson to mike evans to marpet to brate to hump have all been in this offense for years…..
and players like brate, hump, marpet, d.smith, Winston, godwin, oj, barber and others have all “developed” under dirk in this offense…..
what you just mentioned were EXCUSES!!!!!…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
August 29th, 2018 at 11:56 am
LC
I agree with the lack of run game and bad personnel….but I cant say player execution….hard to execute when the DC and defensive players know whats coming….
that’s play calling or lack of creativity….that’s scheme…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
August 29th, 2018 at 11:57 am
Bring in Fritz when bucs are in the red zone
August 29th, 2018 at 12:54 pm
If Jameis can better secure the ball, I think he’ll be consider one of the best young and upcoming quarterbacks. Hopefully our Oline will hold up with all the injuries.
August 29th, 2018 at 12:59 pm
Go get Warren #34 from the Raiders! Make them an offer they can’t refuse!!!
August 29th, 2018 at 1:09 pm
Ah, so we’re still blaming one running back (despite 4 backs playing last year) instead of the o-line that was incapable of opening a hole?
Keep beating that horse Joe.
August 29th, 2018 at 1:22 pm
In order to be a good scoring Red Zone team you must be able to both run and pass the ball. If you are one dimensional the other team pretty much knows which way you are going, run vs pass. This isn’t rocket science. The Bucs were not a good running team in 2017. Period. No matter where they were on the field they were bottom of the league. If the OL can’t clear any holes how can a coach call a running play? News flash, he can’t.
August 29th, 2018 at 1:56 pm
Bucs could use an Alstott type back for those short yardage and goal to go situations. The change of pace would be a good thing too. Sure miss that ol bruiser.
August 29th, 2018 at 3:28 pm
ndog Says:
August 29th, 2018 at 11:02 am
JohnLynchBrokeMyBody47 Says:
August 29th, 2018 at 9:37 am
Non-existent running game + constantly playing from behind = hella passing yardage. JW is excellent in between the 20s, it’s when the field gets shorter that he can get baited into ill-advised behavior.
Really, below are Jamies numbers last year in the red zone. Man look at all those bad decisions: # no what you are talking about before opening your mouth:
Winston last:
42 attempts 21 so that is 50% comp%
TD 12 INT 0
QB Rating 102.3
Astute observation, ndog. Why don’t you take it a step further and point out that out of starting QBs to throw 12 or more tds in the red zone, JW tied for 18th with the WORST completion percentage of that group (that would be worst of 22). How about inside the 10? JW is 27th worst…with…wait for it: the WORST completion percentage (5 of 14) of that group. To his credit, he did outperform DeShaun Keizer and Jacoby Brissett. I love when people use their lazy abbreviated stat research to spin their narrative. “Ill-advised behavior” results in incomplete passes, which his stats clearly reflect. And please, ndog, before telling someone else about KNOWing when to open their mouth, perhaps you should heed your own advice?
August 29th, 2018 at 4:00 pm
Maybe the answer is that Dirk is a terrible play caller in the red zone. Take the game in Carolina for example, the Bucs have the ball at what, the 4 yard line just before halftime. What does Dirk do? He runs a sweep, which I don’t think has EVER worked, even going back to Gruden I don’t think that God awful play has worked. Then he runs the ball again for no gain. This runs the clock nearly all the way down, then finally he Winston pass, I forgot to who, maybe Brate, who gets a PI call against the defense, but now there’s not enough time to run any more plays and they have to kick the FG. That’s Dirk for you, dumb play calls mixed with completely moronic time management. Dirk also cost the team the game against the Rams a couple of years ago where his completely moronic time management left the team with no time left despite having a TO left. Oh and then he had that deal in Carolina where he didn’t know how the clock worked… embarrassing. I will say Dirk has gotten better since his first year at time management when he was truly terrible, but I don’t get how you get to the NFL head coaching level and don’t know how timeouts work.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:02 pm
JohnLynchBrokeMyBody47 – You’re presented with stats that blow up your fake news narrative, and instead of accepting you’re a dummy, you double down on stupid. LOL!
August 29th, 2018 at 4:08 pm
According to NextGen stats, over the last 3 years Winston has had the NFL’s highest intended pass depth, meaning he throws deep more than anyone. Which of course is no surprise to those that pay any attention since Dirk runs a deep ball offense. However Dirk also runs a completely predictable offense where anyone that watches him call more than a game or two, they can easily predict what plays he’s going to call. This wasn’t the case in 2015 when he was in the booth and could see the field, he wasn’t nearly as predictable, and shockingly the run game worked. Then once we moved to the sideline and became the head coach and no longer spent nearly the amount of time game planning as he did in the past, the running game went to $@#@. In basically every game you can expect Dirk to come out in the first half and run it up the middle on nearly every first down, then after setting up that run up the middle on every first down, instead of using a PA pass to catch people off guard, if he wants to throw he moves to shotgun telling everyone that, hey, I’m going to throw the ball this time. It’s truly moronic playcalling. Dirk has said himself that he might have someone else call plays, then has backed off of that, so there is some self awareness that he’s awful at calling plays from the sideline, and as we know he’s been letting the OC call plays in the preseason. Hopefully come regular season he’ll actually listen to the OC who will hopefully be pointing out how incredibly predictable he is. Hopefully.
August 29th, 2018 at 5:36 pm
DB55
True Dat Chris Warren III
August 30th, 2018 at 1:35 am
They’re not running the ball this year either. It seems like they’re allergic to it.