Draft Odds Tumble
November 15th, 2017
The win over the Jets sure was a feel-good moment and maybe, albeit too late, could be a catalyst for the second half of the season.
But for those dreaming of Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb, the win over the Jets was like your girlfriend spitting in your beer.
Prior the game against the Jets, the Bucs were barreling towards a top-five pick. Alas, that now seems slim, per BSPN. The four-letter ran the numbers and suggests the Bucs have a good shot at a top-10 pick but less than a 20 percent shot at the top-five.
Would No. 10 pick be good enough to trade back and stockpile picks?
November 15th, 2017 at 9:05 am
No worries only 10 more games to go and first half of the season had easier opponents than the second half. Are we expecting the bucs to go on a win streak scoring 15 points a game?
November 15th, 2017 at 9:19 am
Umm, the Bucs had the over-all number one draft pick three years ago, but still have lost most games and still haven’t made the play-offs. High picks and even individual talent on a team doesn’t always lead to success.
November 15th, 2017 at 9:20 am
I’d rather have wins…quality free agents and players want to play for winners.
November 15th, 2017 at 9:22 am
After the last few weeks performance it certainly looks like Saquan will be available for quite some time. After the putrid performances lately I wouldn’t want to use a first rounder on him. Now Chubb, that is a different story.
November 15th, 2017 at 9:32 am
@Jim
I’m sorry, but if you don’t recall, in 2015, we used all those top of the round picks to pick up what seemed at the time like 4 Studs. Donovan Smith is struggling right now, but I say he would be a Quality LG.
Compare that to 2016, after we went 6-10, which seems like the same dumb ass record we’re barreling towards now. And we missed out on guys like Jalen Ramsey, Joey Bosa, and Jack Conklin, and were left we Vernon Hargreaves.
Half the reason the Bucs are where they are, is because in years when we have no shot at the playoffs, we tend to still win just enough games to screw ourselves out of a great player. Just lik were gonna do this year, unless the 49’ers, Browns, and Giants suddenly start to win games.
November 15th, 2017 at 9:37 am
still a lot of games on the table for dirk to prove he’s unworthy….as you mentioned yesterday, the remaining teams all have winning records….i’ll stick with 3-13…4-12…GO BUCS!!!!
November 15th, 2017 at 9:46 am
During the draft season last year I constantly flip-flopped on what we should do with the #19 pick. This year its clear what we need.
Its all about the trenches with the 1st round pick this year. OL or DL doesnt matter to me. Although, I do think the DL class is a little deeper than the OL class.
November 15th, 2017 at 9:49 am
I think Jason will still have plenty of kickers to choose from in the 1st rd, unless he trades the pick for some magic beans.
November 15th, 2017 at 9:57 am
Licht’s Out better hire John Skipper’s agent for his much deserved lucrative contract extension…
November 15th, 2017 at 10:09 am
Great….I hope we somehow end up with the 32nd pick…..you know what that would mean.
Part of the losing mentality rests with fans who hope for losses in order to improve draft position…..(I feel sorry for you)…..I think it feels much better to win.
I hope for wins and a wise draft pick whatever our position.
I am reminded of our # 1 pick….Bo Jackson….how did that work out?
November 15th, 2017 at 10:12 am
I want the lowest possible draft pick every year. AKA the most wins we can obtain. Tired of hearing about tanking. I’m glad we were able to draft Jameis but got sick of people hoping we’d lose out.
November 15th, 2017 at 10:28 am
We have talent on this team. It just needs to click. I’m hoping Dirk is the man who can get it done. We don’t need high draft picks, we just need to win.
November 15th, 2017 at 10:38 am
@TBBF
Well, there isn’t a fan in the league that doesn’t want their team to come away with the 32nd pick, knowing that the only way you get that pic other than a trade, is winning the SB.
Now, I have a sneaking suspicion, that some of are misinterpreting what it is I’m actually saying.
I have no issues what so ever in coming away with a late first round draft pick. If you get it by either remaining competitive all year long and then just fall short at the end, like we did last year. Or, actually make the playoffs/ win the Super Bowl. In any of those scenarios it’s totally acceptable.
But when a team opens the season by winning 2 out of 8 games, and there are 2 teams at the top of your division with 7 wins a piece, oh and both of the wild card teams have 7 wins already. You have virtually no chance of making the playoffs.
And when you have no shot at the post season, the only reasonable thing to do is play the for the future.
And don’t give me any of that, oh but get wins to build toward next season BS either. Hello, Mcfly? We did that last year friends. Don’t you remember? We got all those wins, we broke the losing culture. And what did it do for us this season? Not a damn thing.
November 15th, 2017 at 11:00 am
Does it matter what draft number we get with Licht doing the drafting?
November 15th, 2017 at 11:04 am
denjoe Says:
November 15th, 2017 at 9:49 am
I think Jason will still have plenty of kickers to choose from in the 1st rd, unless he trades the pick for some magic beans.
^^^^LMAO BURN!
November 15th, 2017 at 11:23 am
Tanking for any player only contributes to a losing mentality. You take chances on the guys you draft, no matter if it’s an early first rounder or a guy in the 7th round. Nothing is a sure thing and there are plenty of examples of guys that were first round busts to late round picks turning into pro bowl players. That plus you hurt your fan base even more than it already is. You play to win, otherwise what’s the point in playing at all.
November 15th, 2017 at 11:44 am
Don’t worry, don’t panic. They have the Falcons twice, Carolina and New Orleans.
November 15th, 2017 at 11:51 am
Agree with TBF and others who suggest Winning draws Top FA’s and a feel good attitude. It’s now the time to evaluate draft picks who cringe when they are paired with perennial losers. Focus on Miami, lot of season left.
November 15th, 2017 at 11:53 am
I feel like the bastard child on this website, All my post await moderation. 72 year old veteran discriminated against. shame.
November 15th, 2017 at 12:00 pm
Players rise and fall in the draft. Worry about the game in front of you.
No one would’ve imagined that OJ Howard would fall out of the top 15, let alone the top 10.
November 15th, 2017 at 12:16 pm
and does it matter where we pick? No matter this team still turns out to be what it is.
November 15th, 2017 at 12:20 pm
@ Blake bucs Fan
Going 9-7 last year and doing nothing with that this year is purely hindsight… at the time…it was a very good thing for coaches, fans & players.
All I am saying is that the better draft pick is the consolation prize to losing. I will stand with the GM, Coaches, Owners & Players….who, if asked, would always prefer to win no matter the consequence to the draft.
I also think most fans prefer to win. You really can’t have it both ways…..
Like I said, it depends on who you pick… how about Myron Lewis vs Kendell Beckwith? The examples go on and on from year to year and team to team. For the exception of the occasional 1 or 2 pick…..the draft order over time doesn’t matter much.
November 15th, 2017 at 1:01 pm
@Blake
In the 2016 draft we could have taken Sheldon Rankins – a guy many of us were high on; that went after VHIII. So did Laremy Tunsil – another many were high on.
William Jackson III went 24th; and would have been a great pick as well as he’s already the top CB for the Bengals.
The draft is a crapshoot. Yeah in 2016 the top 5 picks were pretty much all studs; but looking at the top 5 picks in 2013-2015 there were multiple busts each year or average players vs all-pro types.
Lane Johnson/ Ziggy Ansah / Clowney / Kahlil Mack = only obvious studs out of the 15 picks across those 3 years. Throw in Winston/Mariota as franchise QBs and that’s less than 1/2 of the 15 picks being worth what you’d think you get with a top 5 selection. Maybe Brandon Schreff I guess as he’s become a really good OG.
But then there’s Eric Fisher / Luke Joekla / Dion Jordan / Greg Robinson / Blake Bortles who are basically busts for what htey should have been.. Dante Fowler Jr / AMari Cooper seem to be doing OK now but aren’t game changers.
A top 5 selection really doesn’t mean much to me vs top 10 or top 15 historically. And yeah I get the idea that the 2018 draft may be top heavy but I’ve heard that before only to see the top heavy side suck compared to studs found at other picks.
November 15th, 2017 at 1:29 pm
How about our playoff percentages?
November 15th, 2017 at 1:31 pm
Blake if you feel that way just give up and come back at draft time. Rooting for the team to lose for the sake of a few higher spots on the draft is truely pathetic. You don’t even have to look past our own teams history to see that top end picks don’t equal success…….That’s because mentality is more important then mere talent.
This team is facing adversity right now and if they come together and learn how to win football games it will build confidence for the future. Confidence takes you much further in sports then draft slots. You can act like these games mean nothing but I guarantee you that when the Saints come to Tampa it means something to, hopefully, every player in our locker room. You want the front office to have our team just lay down for that game? I can tell you right now that will do more harm then good for our current players and the way they approach 2018.
November 15th, 2017 at 1:50 pm
You hear these talking heads speaking about culture all the time. They don’t just say it cause they like to hear themselves speak. I hear ex-players talk about it all the time. They know what they are talking about because most have played for different teams and can see and feel the differences between winning and losing cultures……..Right now our team has a losing culture and to throw the towel in just drives our losing mentality further into the dirt.
The goal was supposted to be playoffs this year. Well, that ain’t happening but technically we are still in it……Should they just tell the players otherwise? That’s one ugly freaking road right there. This franchise has been brutal enough over the years. There’s no need to make it even uglier. And no rookie is coming in here and gonna fix a team full of quitters, that idea is laughable.
November 15th, 2017 at 2:11 pm
Draft position is not a big deal. If it were, the teams like NE would be toast.
It’s scouting and coaching.
November 15th, 2017 at 2:37 pm
Can’t believe that Bucs’ fans are really having a conversation about whether it’s better to win or to lose. I’d almost be willing to bet that all those in favor of tanking don’t have any skin in the game (OK, don’t pay for season tickets). How could anyone possibly pay $$$ for season tickets then root for the home team to lose?
P.S. I love these trolling pieces Joe, but you need to throw out a little fresh chum every so often. The fish are starting to get hungry.
November 15th, 2017 at 2:43 pm
Good franchises can find talent at any point in the round.
F@ck tanking for a draft pick when you already have a QB
November 15th, 2017 at 2:47 pm
Defense….Good point.
These people rooting for us to lose are extremely difficult to understand. My best guess is they are college fans and only fringe fans for the Bucs. They only watch when we are good….or have a chance.
How could anybody watch or go to the game and want us to lose. I can’t even comprehend how that’s possible it would just be a waste of time, right?
I just wish these fringe fans would shut up til draft day and leave the hardcore fans alone and let us root for the team through thick and thin. We can wake them up again when we have a big game.
November 15th, 2017 at 4:49 pm
@JimmyJack
Wrong. And wrong. I am no fringe college fan, or fair weather fan sir.
I watch every game every year. And the stance that I’m coming from is this, we still have far too many position groups with either over the hill or lackluster talent.
And I just do not see this current roster being good enough consistently to win meaningful games in the post season. Both of our trenches need an influx of talent, and we absolutely must find a legit NFL running back to help Jameis be all he can be.
The higher pick we have, the higher our chances are of adding a game changing Talent. No, one rookie is not going to change our fortunes single handedly. But you can’t tell me playmakers don’t help win you games.
One season does not carry over to the next. Next years team is not this years team, just as this team is not last years team. So sorry if you can’t understand me not getting behind winning meaningless games just for feel good sake.
I’d rather we try and play for the future.
November 15th, 2017 at 5:19 pm
well Blake its like I said……you may call the games meaningless all you like but I know the Saints game, for example, does in fact mean something to the players. It also means something to some fans like myself. Maybe your not a fringe fan but I don’t know how you ever are a fan that follows every game hoping we lose. I just don’t understand how that could possibly entertain you.
If this orginazition is going to tell these players to give up when the players still care these players are not going to want to empty their tanks for us come next season………It does carry over when a player is unhappy with the way the team goes about its business. You get what you put in man……That’s not a old tyme saying for noting.
You can talk about game changing talent all you want but you seem to be overlooking game changing mentality………..that’s something that gets built off of winning, not forfieting.
November 15th, 2017 at 5:28 pm
The moment that draft order starts dictating how this team game plans then nobody is going to want to play for this franchise. That’s a cowards move and no self respecting NFL player wants to be subject to that.
No free agent talent is going to want to play here either if we are known for laying down so that pretty much nullifies this whole game changing rookie thing. Not that draft order has ever dictated that in the first place.
Forfieting is a step backwards no matter how you spin it…………This ain’t Madden videogame football with robots for players. The more a company puts into their employees the more they get from them…….That is a true statement in any walk of life.
November 15th, 2017 at 7:06 pm
Blake_Bucsfan,
A while back you called me a “White Knight” for defending some poster that Joe had just run. Well being old, I thanked you.
Then you came back and told me to go to the Urban Dictionary to look up the meaning. Turned out that was a disparaging term.Well, you won’t need to go to your trusty dictionary for this….
You are a Jackass!
November 15th, 2017 at 7:28 pm
What Celly said!
And what Mike Florio said ahead of the ’16 draft. 32 teams will pick in the first round and everyone of them will have a physical specimen…a kid who excelled in colllege and as Florio says 18 of them will not be impact players in the NFL.
It’s a 50-50 crap shoot…at the top and it gets worse. I believe in building through the draft but there is far too much attention paid to individual drafting spots and individual players. Every now and then you get a generational talent like Barkley and if you get a chance you take him…but IF you take him it’s still a crap shoot…despite his talent. Can you say…Dalvin Cook…hopefully he’ll heal…or another great Penn State RB Kijana Carter!!!! How’d that work out for the Bengals when they used the top pick in the entire draft. There are NO sure deals in the draft. Just odds which admittedly improve as you pick higher.
Stop giving me headaches with all this draft malarkey… Why did the legendary Bobby Beathard trade down for MORE picks every chance he got. With that mindset he reached SEVEN Super Bowls winning FOUR of them!!! Think he had the draft figured out?
November 16th, 2017 at 9:10 am
Honestly, not concerned with where we pick. I want to see the team playing well and winning. If they’re not winning, I want to see them losing well and hard fought games. It’s not about giving the paying fans their money’s worth. It’s not about pride. It’s about ridding the team of the losing culture that is the reason that we’re here year after year after year regardless of who we pick. We had a #1 overall pick, did things change? Not really. We’re still here with the garbage culture where players are giving half efforts and showing up flat to meaningful games early in the season. That’s what needs an overhaul. Not a shiny new rookie that we think will save the franchise. They don’t need to outsource the turnaround on the team. It can be done by the way the people currently on the team approach the game and conduct themselves.