Football Outsiders Predicts…

April 11th, 2017

2017 forecast released.

Time to set an appointment with your short-term investment broker.

The keyboard punchers and spreadsheet warriors have spoken. Football Outsiders — which Joe respects a great deal more than the PFF tribe — released its predictions for each NFL team this season.

Caution! Please put the phone down. Depending where you are reading this from, if you are using a smart phone, you will either throw your phone at your supervisor, into the Gulf, or you may run off the road into a ditch.

Per Aaron Schatz, by way of BSPN, the Bucs will finish — brace yourselves — 7-9.

There’s a lot of young, developing talent for Tampa Bay, so I think there’s a better chance of the Buccaneers taking a step forward than an average projection of 7-9 indicates. But it’s still more likely that the Bucs will just stay mediocre.

This is what I like about Schatz and his outfit — no, not because they predict the Bucs to finish with a losing record. Schatz and his clan use reason and logic. The PFF tribe just says, “These are our numbers and you are a clueless troll of a primate if you disagree.” Schatz and Football Outsiders will often question their numbers using, again, reason and logic.

To Joe, that is a breath of fresh air in this sea of paralysis by analysis we live in, where every friggin’ thing has to have a number attached to it.

29 Responses to “Football Outsiders Predicts…”

  1. Spartin Says:

    7-9 is a step backwards. He is full of confusious statements there.

  2. Defense Rules Says:

    In the big picture of 32 teams, PFO’s prediction probably makes sense given that the Bucs are still a young team in a tough division playing a tough schedule this year. However, I like their caveat: “there’s a better chance of the Buccaneers taking a step forward than an average projection of 7-9 indicates.” There are so many unknowns & intangibles at this point. How good will our draft be? Can we avoid season-ending injuries to key players? Will our defense gel early & continue to improve? Will our offense improve considerably? Plus many more. It’ll be fun to watch the pieces come together. Personally would be disappointed if the Bucs don’t improve to anywhere from 10-6 to 11-5 and make the playoffs this year.

  3. Kevinthepainterimagine Says:

    I actually predict a record of 9 and 7 this year, and although that would be yhe same as last season, it would still be a huge improvement considering the team hasnt had back to back winning seasons since gruden was fired. I think they will have a strong draft and look for a dominant bucs team in 2018. This year 9 and 7 I will be happy

  4. Louis Says:

    I look for an improvement in the whole NFC south. Carolina will reload and should improve, never count out Drew Bre
    eze, and Atlanta should continue to be good as well. With that in mind, 9/7 in our division would be a great year this season.

  5. 941BUC Says:

    11-5.right behind ATL.I believe our division will be the toughest division in the league.I even predict that the team that ends up in 4th in our division will be 9-7.

  6. Q Says:

    They also predicted we would have a losing record last year and we went 9-7 joe…so i dont agree or believe in any of these guys research….go bucs

  7. gotbbucs Says:

    Pointless to make these predictions before training camp. Too much is still to come.

  8. Blade Runner Says:

    Only idiots at far left network ESPN would make predictions this early which is a joke! These projections are pre-draft, not to mention additional talent the Bucs could pick up after the June 1st cuts…how these morons can say the Bucs are going to regress is a joke!

  9. Buc1987 Says:

    Before the draft and TC?


  10. OneBuC55 Says:

    ESPN is wrong again as usual…

  11. Tampa Tony Says:

    A prediction before the schedule is released the draft happens and the pre season? Someone is bored

  12. Architek Says:

    I don’t comprehend how you can make predictions without the schedule release.

  13. biff barker Says:

    Playoffs or bust.

    The South is always volatile so the win/loss number is meaningless, it’s driven by Vegas.

    It’s wild card or the familiar disappointment of living in Bucville.

  14. DBS Says:

    And if they don’t make the Playoffs it will be the usual excuses followed by “But all we need is”.

  15. ZZBucs!!! Says:

    Its just not seroius……predicting season when the draft didn’t even start…..seems to me that somebody needs to justify his job!!!! 100% rubish!!!

  16. unbelievable Says:

    Lol you guys should read that again, it’s football outsiders who came up with 7-9, not the “far left” BSPN. Lol what does that even mean? Is BSPN politicized too now?

    Smdh who gives a s(p)it what they say? Haven’t even had the draft or training camp yet.

    We will finish with a winning record again this year for sure.

  17. NFLNut Says:

    10-11 wins, book it imo

  18. ARGH_M8E Says:

    B10W me!!!!!!! Apparently they’re not paying attention. We should of been
    11-5 last season, we will b 11-5 this year due to strong schedule. That is unless we royally screw up the draft, NO WAY, sheeeeeeee-it… My girl could draft us a min 4 starters this year and the only thing she knows about football is that it makes me crazy!

  19. briandorry55 Says:

    If you guys don’t like PFF then quit talking about them. My god, like an ex girlfriend that bitches about her ex that she “doesn’t care about anymore” 24/7. Get over it. When you watch as much tape as them then you can complain about them. How many GMs pay JBF for analysis?

  20. SOEbuc Says:

    The same old close to %50 range. A lot of us were saying 7-9 to 9-7 (i said 9-7, just puttin’ it out there) last year cus that’s what we really thought it was gonna be. This guy just probably doesn’t do very much research and just goes for the %50 range. Or he could be absolutely right, we still got 5 months.

  21. Mike Johnson Says:

    Mr. Coulda/Woulda/Shoulda! Games still have to be played. Bucs need a fast start. PERIOD. I’m not much on predictions. Cause the opponent is predicting they will whip us also. Only the best prepared team will win.So I ave my hopes neither high or low. I’m just gonna watch the games to see what we got. Don’t get your hopes all high people. Anticipation does jacksh..for effort! You gotta play hard to win.

  22. unbelievable Says:

    Speaking of….

    Joe, wasn’t there a contest for fans who predicted the correct record last year to win a jersey?

    What ever happened with that? I’m pretty sure many of us chose 9 – 7….. just sayin…

  23. The Buc Realist Says:

    @Mike Johnson

    Wow!!! How long are you going to be bitter of the firing of lovie????? Look, NFL GM Licht took out the trash so now we can have a good team!!!! But don’t worry, just like ME13 we will tell you when to stand up and cheer for this team!!!!! But really, you should be excited!!! Now that we have the white ah ah ah errrrr, I mean now that we have the right coaches everything is now coming together!!!!!

    GO BUCS!!!!!!!!

  24. Buc1987 Says:

    Classic Realist!

  25. TheShaz Says:

    I expect nothing less from the National Sports Media. The Bucs have been basement dwellers for a while and spreadsheets show that. Now if the Bucs have another winning season, the following year they will not predict a losing season.

    Short version “Bucs have to earn the respect”

    NFC South is gonna be tough.

    Carolina should be recovered from their SB hangover loss of the previous year.
    Atlanta will have a SB loss hangover, don’t know if it will be as bad as the Panthers.
    Drew Brees old as he is, he alone makes the Saints a handful.

    Why can’t we play against Miami, Buffalo and the Jets 2x a year? Or Cleveland, Cincinnati & Baltimore?

    I expect Jameis to be fully acclimated to the speed of the NFL and really emerge as an Elite QB this season. Going to be fun to watch.

  26. Earl Lee byrd Says:

    Lol. You guys are funny. His prediction is just a opinion or guess and you take it personal. 1st off he got what he wanted, you talking about it. The bucs squeeked by alot in games they won last yr so that is a concern plus a harder schedule. Seems like you expect the bucs to just wax teams every game. Lol. Relax and just enjoy the games one at a time.

  27. Some Fools Up In Here Says:

    What the hell does “the far left BSPN” mean? It’s a sports network and pretty much sticks to sports programming all of the time. Is it far left because it doesn’t use racist slurs or belittle women? I don’t understand that ridiculous comment.

  28. Jim Says:

    My question is: What if this prediction is correct?

  29. Trubucfan22 Says:

    PFF gives you the data they collect and analyze it from a numbers stand point. Like it or hate it, the numbers never lie. Jameis being the most hit QB in the league is a black eye for the o line. The o line providing just 2.9 yard per rush for our RB is another black eye. Disagree all you want with the facts, but the o line was not good last season. It failed both the eye test and the number crunchers analytics.