Interesting Jameis Breakdown
August 12th, 2016
Not that bad.
Joe is not totally against the spreadsheeters. Regular readers should know this.
Joe likes locally grown stathead Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times, finds Evan Silva of Rotoworld.com a smart analyst and, generally, the Football Outsiders crowd is pretty good, save for a certain Irish numberscruncher who traffics in stacked-deck analysis.
This brings Joe to Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders. Some stat geeks rail that America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, is the most inaccurate quarterback to ever line up behind center. Yeah, Joe is looking right at you, Mr. Shepherd’s Pie Face. But others, like Greg Cosell of NFL Films, a respected and long-time football film-watching junkie, scoff at this notion (more on that in the near future).
Yesterday, Kacsmar Twittered out the following.
Most overthrown passes, 2015
1. Winston – 93
2. Rodgers – 89
3. Bortles – 75
4. Newton – 74
5. Fitzpatrick – 70— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) August 11, 2016
Joe found this very interesting. So if Jameis only had four more overthrows than arguably the best quarterback in the game, a Super Bowl winner and future Hall of Fame quarterback, that’s pretty good for a rookie, no?
However, if one is to whine about inaccuracy, then why did/has Aaron Rodgers been given such a free and total pass for overthrows? When is the last time you read or heard anyone kvetch about Rodgers’ inability to throw deep? Honestly, Joe never has (for good reason).
Some statheads tend to forget NFL completions aren’t quite as simple as tossing a football back and forth with a babe at the beach standing 10 yards away.
First, it takes two to tango. Were the receivers running garbage routes? Or a wrong route? Or did a cornerback have excellent coverage? Or did a defender knock the receiver off his route? All are important factors in whether a pass is completed or not.
Yes, the Packers had a lot of injuries to their receivers last year. This just in: So did the Bucs. And Joe’s going to walk out on a limb and suggest the Packers had better backup receivers than the Bucs had. For example, Joe can’t imagine Packers yoda Ted Thompson signing the misplaced Calgary Stampeder, Donteea Dye, to a contract other than to fetch the kickoff tee during special teams practices.
So this information from Kacsmar tells Joe that Jameis wasn’t that bad at all in long-range throws. Either that, or folks are burying their heads in the sand for Rodgers because he’s bedding a hottie Hollywood starlet when not overthrowing receivers, thus, inciting jealousy.
August 12th, 2016 at 10:07 am
Well he was throwing to a slew of guys who can’t run routes for most of the season…and Evans is lazy as hell on deep routes. So there’s more to it.
August 12th, 2016 at 10:08 am
I’m more concerned about the throws that are short and off the mark than overthrows. Last night Jaboo missed ME along the sidelines going deep, ME had 2 steps on the WR but the ball was thrown short and inside.
Although the throw was off and ME was being interfered with (db held his arm) ME didn’t complain or react he jogged back to the huddle like a good little boy. Happy? Smh #ky
August 12th, 2016 at 10:09 am
“Either that, or folks are burying their heads in the sand for Rodgers because he’s bedding a hottie Hollywood starlet when not overthrowing receivers, thus, inciting jealousy.”
Joe you have the answered your own question. Winning + TD + Playing for the Packers and not the Bucs + Hollywood Starlet = better media coverage. It’ll always be that way until the Bucs establish our own record of sustained excellence.
August 12th, 2016 at 10:10 am
Or did a defender get away with a pass interference?
Solid post Joe. Out of the 53 man roster there are four players that I don’t have any concerns about. Jameis is one of them.
August 12th, 2016 at 10:10 am
And Evans is lazy as hell on deep routes. So there’s more to it.
–/————-
Seriously you guys are unbelievable. Apparently he need to be lazier so he can run slow enough for JW to reach him with a pass.
August 12th, 2016 at 10:30 am
@DB55
I’m watching the play you’re referencing in slow motion, on replay, and I don’t see anything wrong with the pass itself. It actually looked perfect. It looks like it was on his inside shoulder to maximize YAC. If he had not been interfered with, it would dropped right in his hands and probably to the house, as the safety was not in position to stop him.
August 12th, 2016 at 10:32 am
@DB55
I noticed that also……Evans was interfered with and he didn’t fuss…..and Evans only looks lazy…..all of the great ones are like that….they play almost effortlessly……VJax looks that way also…..
August 12th, 2016 at 10:52 am
Scurvy
The ball was at least 1 yard behind him and to the inside. It needs to be a yard beyond him and to the sideline. You leave it inside the safety has a chance to make the play. Do you guys even football?
You gotta get the ball out in front. As a WR that’s the worst having to slow down to catch a ball most time you get an PI call cuz the CB runs into you.
August 12th, 2016 at 10:54 am
Winston’s accuracy is fine. I’m basically in Buc1987 mind frame with Jameis. There is no stat any one could pull that would have me doubt him. He’s made some of the most accurate throws I’ve seen in tight windows for a college player and last year put up a highlight reel of throws better than any Bucs QB we’ve ever had. He’s passed my eye test for 3+ years now. Stayin Skrong
August 12th, 2016 at 10:57 am
“Winning + TD + Playing for the Packers and not the Bucs + Hollywood Starlet = better media coverage.”
For sure. Jameis Winston basically had a season like Andrew Luck did as a rookie; but we didn’t make the playoffs so the perception of those 2 has been portrayed way differently by the media. Luck was also anointed coming into the league while Winston was heavily scrutinized and bashed by places like BSPN.
August 12th, 2016 at 10:58 am
Tbbf
Agreed, I might be smoking too much crack but ME reminds me of Randy Moss. And I bet you a Bucs hat that he’s gotta be saying to himself “man if I only had a qb that could get me the ball”. Which puzzles me bc JW had no problem getting kelvin Benjamin the ball. Not sure what’s going on with these two I hope they get it fixed quick. I still say JW needs glasses, no diss just saying homie prob can’t see that far downfield. Am I wrong?
August 12th, 2016 at 11:02 am
Just to be clear I’m a fan of JW obviously but it is what it is they just need to improve their chemistry with the long ball.
August 12th, 2016 at 11:04 am
“stacked deck analysis” – Love the term, Joe’s
This is good company to be in
August 12th, 2016 at 11:10 am
I was actually very happy to see ME trot nonchalantly back after the no call DPI. Focus on your own play. Too many times we see him try to fight with refs for flags and even give up on a play to complain for PI.
No, this time he fought for the ball till the play was over, he didnt get the call and instead of uselessly complaining, stayed focused on his own play.
Great to see that from ME
August 12th, 2016 at 11:12 am
Come on guy. Winston had a fine game. You’re nitpicking one of his two incompletitions. And you can easily make a case that the ball would have been caught if Evans wasn’t held. I agree it’s safer to throw to the sidelines but if you have the safety beat like we did on that play it really doesn’t matter.
Winston moved the ball every time he had it and the one three and out he had was Humphries fault. Winston came back after that incompletition to Evans and moved the ball and pinned the Eagles back deep. We should have scored a safety after that, that was a blown call.
August 12th, 2016 at 11:14 am
Never once did the word “lazy” cross Joe’s mind when watching the following receivers:
Jerry Rice
Steve Largent
Michael Irvin
Drew Pearson
Lynn Swann
John Stallworth
Cris Carter
Andre Reed
Fred Biletnikoff
Cliff Branch
Larry Fitzgerald
Hines Ward
Larry Fitzgerald
Vincent Jackson
Joe could go on and on and on.
Joe’s not saying Evans is lazy (in the past, his problem is his head), but great receivers “lazy?” C’mon.
August 12th, 2016 at 11:25 am
Coming in, people were skeptical, waiting for Jameis to fail, regardless of which team he goes to. Then of all 32 teams, he goes to the Buccaneers, essentially making him a ridiculously easy target. So keep in mind, when Jameis does good, some ppl just aren’t going to acknowledge such, in fact they will be mad that he made them look a fool and exposed how worthless some of these analysts really are. Like the guy above on twitter, he was probably one of those calling Jameis a bust a year ago, probably hoping he would’ve gone to jail and Jameis just prooves his kind wrong. So this chump is going to troll 1. because alot of ppl don’t like Jameis so he won’t be called our and 2. like I said Jameis play for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, people outside this market are always hating and trolling Tampa, cause they know they’ll get away with it.
August 12th, 2016 at 11:30 am
Buccaneer
Two true statements: I’m nitpicking and that was a blown call on the safety – intentional grounding.
August 12th, 2016 at 11:45 am
Hmmm…
I’m a huge Winston fan, but it is troublesome that he tends to have accuracy issues. He had the most overthrown passes last year AND had one of lowest completion percentages in the league on passes less than 10 yards. You can’t just explain that away with the notion that perhaps the receivers ran the wrong routes, etc. – because that applies to EVERY QB in the league and is essentially baked into the completion percentage. Sure, Winston was a rookie and gaining chemistry with his receivers and the playbook, that’s for sure – but he was very inaccurate at times. Seeing him go 7-9 last night was a terrific start to the 2016 campaign. There’s no QB I’d rather have than Winston – but in order for him to truly become elite, his faults can’t just be explained away in the interest of promoting him. You can critique and still be a huge fan and proponent for something.
August 12th, 2016 at 11:50 am
Where does Rodgers rank each year of his career. I bet it was a one year thing. QB’s are so hard to evaluate. Freeman had one of the best season’s a 21 yo QB has ever had. Foles, RG3, Kap the list goes on. QBs annotated franchise QBs. Yet, might be backing groceries in a year or two. 3 very good seasons is what i need to label a QB a franchise Qb
Or a ring of coarse. #3 had a good season not great. 50 something completion percentage is not good enough.
August 12th, 2016 at 12:23 pm
No worries.
JW is a work in progress.
Competitive, Driven, still very much a raw talent.
Believe it.
Kaizen! ( a Japanese philosophy of continual improvement)
August 12th, 2016 at 1:20 pm
Too little NFL too evaluate. How many passes did each QB throw?
August 12th, 2016 at 1:58 pm
Bucnut
JW was 7-9 w 98y and a TD
August 12th, 2016 at 2:00 pm
Not sure if this was mentioned yet but, how many total attempts for each QB mentioned?
If you throw a bunch it makes sense that you’ll have a higher number of overthrows. If you have fewer attempts you’ll have a lower number of overthrows.
I think a percentage or ratio may make more sense in this case?
August 12th, 2016 at 2:26 pm
winston and rodgers had the same issue last year – loads of WRs who had never contributed meaningfully to an NFL team. being in sync with your WRs is probably a bigger factor than actual arm accuracy when you are assessing accuracy from a real football standpoint
August 12th, 2016 at 2:51 pm
Wow to the poster calling ME lazy..Just wow..ME practiced off season in catches, building chemistry with Jameis, looked great out there..and even learned to get his demons out of his head..and he’s lazy??
August 12th, 2016 at 4:19 pm
The problem is more the short balls than the long balls. I think Jameis throws a beautiful deep ball when given time. Sometimes when he is on the run as well it gets a bit wonky.
August 14th, 2016 at 11:48 am
Jameis is going to be a superstar. You know it when you see it. Also, I would think being in the same vicinity as Rodgers and Newton isn’t a bad thing. Imo, the QBs on that list all challenge defenses down the field early and often, and he certainly does that and fits more in line with the 2 great ones on the list that do it well as I’m not convinced Bortles will ever be in that league that Jameis is about to enter with Rodgers and Newton.