Historically Awful Numbers
December 30th, 2015
Completion percentage not trivial.
As Joe wrote yesterday, Bucs coach Lovie Smith is quick to embrace analytics and statistics… so long as they don’t make him look bad.
Monday in his day-after presser, Lovie was quick to dismiss, wave off and mock the league-high quarterback completion percentage against his defense. Joe believes that’s largely because it reminds people what a sieve the Bucs’ pass defense has become under Lovie’s watch.
Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times suggests Lovie might want to start paying attention to the league-worst 69.5 percent of passes completed against his defense, if he ever hopes to guide the Bucs to a playoff spot.
And across the league, teams that give up high completion percentages are consistently losing — of the 10 worst teams in that statistic, none have clinched a playoff berth and only one (the 9-6 Steelers) is still alive for the postseason.
On the other side, the teams that give up the lowest completion percentage to opponents are consistently winners — of the 12 teams allowing the lowest completion percentage, seven are already in the playoffs, and four others are still alive going into the final week, with only the 7-8 Bills out of contention.
Why have the Steelers bucked this trend? Because they have one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL with a future Hall of Fame quarterback.
Joe loves the ceiling of America’s Quarterback, Bucs signal-caller Jameis Winston, and the potential of the offense under Dirk Koetter, but it is a far cry from the Steelers’.
It is high time Lovie start worrying about forcing punts and quit whining incessantly about not forcing turnovers, or come January 2017, there might be a forced turnover in his office at One Buc Palace — one he won’t like one bit.
December 30th, 2015 at 7:38 am
“…so long as they don’t make him look bad”
Incompetent Lovie Smith is always making me wax nostalgic for the days of “yungry” and attacking the victory formation!
December 30th, 2015 at 7:47 am
Another indictment of just how awful his scheme is.
December 30th, 2015 at 7:48 am
@Dallasbuc
Those were simpler times!!! Back then the sheep would get made at coaches when the coaches told GMC not to help other teams players off the ground!!!!
December 30th, 2015 at 8:15 am
When the team is winning you can over look the bad things that have happened over the last two years. After having a 6-6 record and then going on what will be a 4 game losing streak, all of those bad things come back front and center. Bad free agent choices, prematurely cutting players without better players to replace them with, inability of the coaching staff to get the team to play well in important games (Titans, Colts, Saints), inability of the coaching staff to teach fundamentals to keep the team from having the most penalties in the NFL. This coaching staff cleaned out the entire secondary just to give up a league high completion percentage against the pass. With the slight improvement in the team and for the sake of stability, I agree Lovie has to get one more year, but so far these coaches don’t seem to have to horsepower to make this team a power house. They had a real shot at not having a losing season and completely fell apart at the worst time and blew it. If I had any trust in the Glazers to pick better coaches, I would say we should be on the lookout for someone better now. But I don’t.
December 30th, 2015 at 8:25 am
Joel Glazer;
” I would like to introduce you to the next HC of your Tampa Bay Bucs”
Dirk Koetter
It will happen next year…if the eagles can fire Chip Kelly, then Larry Moe & Curly Glazer will fire Lovie….the Hire is easy so they will not have to do a lot of work.
December 30th, 2015 at 8:36 am
REALLY THE BUC’S SHOULD BE 5-10 BECAUSE THE DALLAS COWBOYS SHOULD OF WON THAT GAME……. AND NEXT THEY WILL BE 5-11 , IF THAT ISN’T REASON ENOUGH TO FIRE LOVIE ASS , THEN THIS MAN IS LIVIN’ HIGH AND DRY !!!!!!! NEXT YEAR 3-13…….
December 30th, 2015 at 8:43 am
@Dreambig … “If I had any trust in the Glazers to pick better coaches, I would say we should be on the lookout for someone better now. But I don’t.”
My sentiments exactly. The one constant these last 20 years has been the Glazers. They started off like gang-busters by hiring Tony Dungy and what turned out to be an exceptional defensive coaching staff, then built largely through the draft. The defense that they built really peaked in 2002 and is rated as one of the best defenses ever. (Dan Pompei did a great article in Mar 2014 on the best NFL defenses ever and had some great analysis of why that defense was so good … here’s the link: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/68778308/nfl-ranking-best-defenses-in-history-seattle-seahawks-chicago-bears ).
The coaching staff that we have in-place today is nowheres near as good as that one. The current players aren’t nearly as good as those we had then. Plus the rules have changed significantly (to favor the offense). Bottom line: Bucs have a LONG way to go on the defensive side of the ball to be relevant again.
December 30th, 2015 at 8:43 am
The sad part is that most do not realize how soft the schedule was!!! Historically bad stats with a historically soft schedule hid some of the lovie problems this year!!!
December 30th, 2015 at 8:44 am
Lovie is the Chip Kelly of Defense. Scheme trumps talent my a$$…. you scheme to your talent. You do not game plan turnovers. You game plan to stop the offense and turn overs are a bonus of the game plan.
For those Lovie Lovers that use the lazy and fear-tactic excuse of we need consistency for Winston, let’s consider that he was the smartest QB since Manning and puts in 30 hours a day of football studying. Manning lost a coach fairly early in his career and he seemed to recover just fine. There are list of QBs that have changed coaches and OC’s and were able to function.
There is no reason to continue down a path that we all know will not end in a Super Bowl win just because change is scary. The Eagles owner realized that and now the Glazers need to man up and make the same move.
December 30th, 2015 at 9:21 am
Bad coaching + bad talent = pathetic defense. Realist is also correct, this was a schedule that had a lot of crap on it. Won’t be so lucky to have that kind of schedule every year.
December 30th, 2015 at 10:50 am
At this point all I can hope for this off season is Hawaiian Buc comes out of seclusion to at least agree with me that Schiano was a better Bucs HC than Lovie. Granted I realize it’s trivial and kind of like saying my 3 legged dog runs faster than yours, but there really hasn’t been much to get excited about save a couple of weeks of playoff smoke at 6-6 before the team packed it in for the season. That and the offense showed some signs of life under Koetter. OL improved from horrible in 2014 to decent this year (still not good enough), Winston showed some good (and bad) things (to be expected from a rookie, but looking positive), and Martin shut up his critics…beyond that and maybe Kwon’s play for a rookie I felt the team was better under Schiano…sorry, but that’s true. I kind of wish we had seen what Schiano and Licht could have done together.
December 30th, 2015 at 12:18 pm
Here’s a thought:
Since it appears that the coaching staff cannot adequately coach the defensive side of the ball and, since we “need” to keep Lovie around for stability (?), why not fire Leslie Frazier (DC), Joe Cullen (DL), Hardy Nickerson (LB), Gil Byrd (CB), Mikal Smith (FS/SS), Larry Maramie (SDA), Paul Spicer (ADL), Dave Borgonzi(DQC), and Miles Smith (DQC) and tell Lovie to find a system and a staff that can teach it that will actually succeed under today’s current rules favoring the offense?
December 30th, 2015 at 3:54 pm
I still believe. For one more year.
If he does get fired this year though…Koetter better stay.