Better Playoff Chances

December 2nd, 2015
Playoff odds increasing?

Playoff odds increasing?

So it is December football and Bucs fans are not quietly hoping for losing because it will help in the draft.

Nobody is loudly beating pots and pans in the street seeking lossses to win the Chase for Jameis. Mission accomplished.

The Bucs host both the Dixie Chicks and the sad sack Saints the next two Sundays. Those are not only winnable but are must-wins, if the Bucs plan to play postseason games. And the numberscruchers think they just might.

Well, they have a better shot than the Dixie Chicks.

Aaron Schatz of, typing for BSPN, ran the numbers and believes the Bucs have a 16.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, better odds than the Dixie Chicks or the Bears, two of the next four opponents.

The playoff odds simulation has finally given up on the Atlanta Falcons, moving their odds below Tampa Bay even though the Falcons still have a better win-loss record. The Falcons still end up with more average wins (7.9 to 7.5), but tiebreakers give Tampa Bay a better chance to make the postseason because the Falcons are 4-4 in NFC games with two of their final four conference games coming against Carolina, while the Bucs are 4-3 in NFC games with just one game left against Carolina.

As Joe has written, if the Bucs finish with a losing record in December, they don’t belong in the playoffs. If the Bucs can’t beat both Atlanta and New Orleans, two teams circling the NFL drain, two teams the Bucs already beat in their own cribs, the Bucs don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.

13 Responses to “Better Playoff Chances”

  1. Danati74 Says:

    Well I think the teams mindset is they want to win..and make the playoffs. We’re still in the thick of things. If their goal was to be an 8-8 team, I think they can make it. They want to make the play-offs but Mike Evans needs a special pair of gloves. We need to clone ASJ and tell him to do the opposite of what ASJ is doing. Our rookie QB needs help,…and the only guy helping him is VJAX, D. Martin,..and even C. Sims. This team needs consistency and nobody is really doing it….and it starts from the top. I’ll give it to Lovie,..November ball was pretty good.

  2. destro44 Says:

    I can’t say I think we are ready for playoff football. If we get there awesome, but I’m still looking for growth. The team is coming together ahead of schedule I feel so great. If they continue to grow I think 8-8 is a real possibility. Of that’s good enough for the playoffs we got lucky. I just don’t want to see us regress this last month.

  3. dreambig Says:

    I agree Destro, I don’t think we are there yet. We just finally won two games in a row. Going 3-2 for the rest of the way would be a terrific place to end the season, that seems doable based on how we are playing and that might be enough to get into the playoffs but I wouldn’t put money on either one yet.

  4. dreambig Says:

    What is a bit concerning out of Buc camp is how seemingly accepting the Bucs coaching staff is of the massive amount of penalties. I am not hearing them say a whole lot about it other than a mention or two. You would think between penalties and dropped passes, the coaches would be pissed and putting the heat on the repeat offenders. Is that happening? I hope so but not seeing any evidence. How about benching Mankin’s for a series or finding some other way to express a since of urgency in cleaning that crap up. I mention Mankin’s because he is one of the worst offenders on the oline, and he is the leader. How about making Evans spend some penalty time catching balls from the Jugs machine? The coaches need to pound on the team leaders to get it right, and the team leaders need to pound on the reset of the team. We can’t win consistently and beat the teams we should beat with out mastering the basic stuff like don’t move until the ball is snapped.

  5. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    We need to beat the Falcons Sunday…..only then will we have a better chance of getting to the playoffs.

    We need to play nearly flawless football and that means playing smart….something we haven’t been able to do very often.

    The team leaders need to lead by example… penalties from GMC, Mankins, Vax would help.

  6. StPeteBucsFan Says:


    that means playing smart….something we haven’t been able to do very often.

    The team leaders need to lead by example… penalties from GMC, Mankins, Vax would help.

    Amen brother. That’s been the most frustrating part of this team for years now not just under Lovie. The Bucs have been a stupid football team that frequently snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. Part of our horrible losing culture.

    I honestly believe that is changing but it doesn’t happen overnight. Let’s hope after the debacle of stupidity in Indy the bulb finally goes off.

    I simply can’t imagine that Lovie hasn’t read them the riot act behind closed doors both collectively and individually about the penalties. He didn’t hestitate to yank Akeem Spence after the stupid penalty eliminated any chance of catching the Giants. I wouldn’t have minded seeing him pull GMC right after that sack and then offsides.

    Like one of your earlier posts I don’t know what else you can do with grown men who also happen to be multi-millionaires.

    The big contracts and CBA really limit what a coach can do. See Cleveland and Johnny Manziel. Think they didn’t want to suspend that loser for the rest of the year. Too big an investment and nobody to step up and replace.

    I honestly do not know what a coach can do. Perhaps other posters here have some ideas.

  7. Fsuking Says:

    Historically, Lovie Smith’s teams start playing football in November and lose all hope by mid December. With the Bears, he was usually in a good position to make the playoffs in Dec only to lose and drop out of the race around Christmas. He is a bad head coach ladies and gentleman. Lovie makes being an NFL coach seem exactly what it is, hard to do!

  8. godzilla13 Says:

    It is always nice to talk about this but does anyone really think the Buccaneers belong in the playoffs? We would have to get past the Seahawks which is highly unlikely. Even if we did the first game would be against Arizona or the Vikings? We were exposed by the Colts who by the way went to the AFC Championship game last year and are now 4-0 under Matt Hasselbeck. What bothers me about the loss are the stupid penalties like the neutral zone infractions, unsportsmanlike conduct, leaping and false starts? The dropped passes and the missed tackles. All can be corrected with better coaching and focus. This team has to come to the realization that they can’t win if this stuff continues.

  9. Buc1987 Says:

    lol Joe no more Tanketh For Jameth for me. I think I started posting that in early November of last season.

  10. Johnny "America's Commenter" Dejay Says:

    The intensity picks up towards the end of the regular season for teams that are in the hunt. The true contenders separate from the pretenders down the stretch. If any team is ready and capable to pick up the intensity, I think it’s the Bucs because of their young core and charismatic QB team leader. This team will go as far as Winston can take them, and frankly, the sky is the limit. If they qualify for the playoffs, they won’t be an easy out and nobody will want to play them.

  11. BlogTalkFootball Says:

    If Evans really wants to win, he will start working as hard as OBJ at catching everything thrown at him. The ones who really want it will outwork the ones who don’t.

  12. Buccfan37 Says:

    It is odd that two of the strongest unions in America are the NFLPA and the arms manufacturers. Bombs and footballs, talk about distractions.

  13. Pick6 Says:

    nothing bad can come of pushing hard for the postseason, even though i think our chances of achieving that are remote and the chances of us going to minnesota or GB (the likely 3rd best division winner) and winning are even more remote. all but the panthers game (assuming full strength opponent in week 17) are very winnable, but we are still losing winnable games. we need another offseason to mature licht’s draft picks and deepen the roster before we can go toe to toe with the real contenders in the NFC. next year i would have to consider anything less than a wild card berth should be considered a disappointment within the locker room. we have elite talent on both sides of the ball and after 3 offseasons and a boatload of caproom, licht should at least have no black holes of talent like we currently have at DB and DE (and previously had at every spot on the roster before the 2014 draft)