“Let’s Play The Real Stat Game”

December 3rd, 2014
A former Buccaneer makes a passionate plea for Brian Hoyer. Is Lovie Smith on board?

A former Buccaneer makes a passionate plea for Brian Hoyer. Is Lovie Smith on board?

Face up to the fact that free-agent-in-waiting Brian Hoyer might be the next quarterback handed the Tampa Bay offense.

Lovie Smith doesn’t seem like a guy eager to hand his team off to a rookie. (See the 2014 draft)

Heck, Hoyer, 29, is a younger more successful version of Josh McCown in many ways. And we know how infatuated Lovie was/is with him.

Joe’s got audio attached here. It’s a passionate, insightful endorsement of Hoyer by BSPN analyst and former Bucs quarterback Trent Dilfer, who is annoyed that Johnny Football will take over the 7-5 Browns on Sunday.

Dilfer is angered by “box-score analysts” he says have no idea what they saying when they claim Hoyer isn’t excellent because of his stats.

“Lets play the real stat game,” Dilfer pleaded.

Dilfer wants the stats-obsessed to look at what he claims are analytics of “critical moment stuff that really matters” to winning games, and to general managers and coaches.

“[Hoyer’s] QBR in the final three minutes of games is better than [Tom] Brady, Peyton [Manning] and Phillip Rivers,” Dilfer said via ESPN Radio yesterday. “He has the most game-winning drives of any quarterback this season with four. His third-down completion percentage is better than [Ben] Roethlisberger.”

Dilfer praised Hoyer’s leadership and production with a backup center, a second rate tight end, and no-name receivers outside of Josh Gordon, who is coming off his couch after a suspension.

“I’m saying the Browns are where they’re a lot to do because of Brian Hoyer,” Dilfer said. “So he has a couple of stinkers? By the way, one of the interceptions the other day, [Josh] Gordon runs the wrong route. He throws the ball perfect on the seam, Gordon’s supposed to bend and it gets picked. All we show on ESPN is one of Brian Hoyer’s interceptions hits the safety in the chest. ‘Man, he must suck.'”

Joe’s not endorsing Hoyer for the Bucs, but given the miserable state of the Tampa Bay quarterback position, all options must be considered.

One thing that gave Joe a laugh was when Dilfer explained how he’s changed his tune on stats. “I used to never be a stat guy, Because I didn’t want anyone to read my stats, to be honest with you.”

(Click the arrow below to hear the full Dilfer audio.)


44 Responses to ““Let’s Play The Real Stat Game””

  1. Captain Stagger Says:

    Mariota = salvaging a dwindling fan base by giving them hope.

    Hoyer/McCown = moving the team to London because no one will buy tickets to see Lovie and McCown sink this franchise with hopelessness and apathy.

    Hopefully Lovie understands that playing Buc Ball and riding his defense with no real OC, and no real QB will get him fired next year.

  2. Biggs Says:

    We’d be leading the division with Hoyer as our QB. Sickening truth.

  3. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Our new OC will make the QB choice…..that will be a condition he requires.
    Any decent OC would want some assurances like QB and an Oline rebuild.

  4. meh Says:

    Getting Hoyer this offseason would be like getting wrapped up poop for Christmas.

    Stop. Just stop. Please get us a real QB of the future.

  5. warrenfb12 Says:

    John Gruden 2.0

    Didn’t the Glazers grow weary of this song and dance with that regime?

    Does Lovie make it past this year if he decides to bring in Hoyer?

  6. Buc Neckid Says:

    Mariota > Hoyer (long term)
    Hoyer > Winston (long term)

  7. NewTampaChris Says:

    I’m not necessarily sold on Winston or Mariota being able to be productive out of the gate. But after the failures of Glennon (3rd QB drafted that year) and McCown (best available FA QB), I think the Bucs are in the position where they’ll HAVE to draft one of those guys if they are available.

    If the Bucs pick a stud OL or even Amari Cooper, the fan base and media will spew a steady stream of WTF all off-season.

  8. tmaxcon Says:


    what makes you so confident “King Llovie” will allow anyone to make a decision??? I’ll take it one step further what makes you think he has any plans to replace the interim OC…. He has full control. His stubbornness will cost this team 3 to 5 more years of hell.

    Hoyer stinks he is no different than McCown or Glennon all 3 are career backups and all 3 will be out of the league on radio shows or coaching in 3 years.

  9. OB Says:

    I think even the Glazers can recognize how consistently bad the offense is and how it consistently never changes. I don’t think Lovies has much more than the end of this season.

    He and/or Frazier moved some players out on the D and they improved. They still keep some questionable players but they maybe due to circumstances.

  10. warrenfb12 Says:

    Winston is the only answer, IMO.

  11. bucrightoff Says:

    Hoyer, McCown, Cutler, Eli or some vet has probably an 80% chance of being the starter next year. The other 20% assumes Lovie gets fired.

  12. RastaMon Says:

    Trade down twice in the 1st round…..
    picking up picks for 2015 & 2016….
    REBUILD !!!!!!!!!

  13. Architek Says:

    Bring in Hoyer and that will be the death blow to a dying fan base.

  14. Patrickbucs Says:

    Buc Neckid Says:
    December 3rd, 2014 at 9:25 am
    Mariota > Hoyer (long term)
    Hoyer > Winston (long term)


  15. Luther Says:

    Trade down twice in the 1st round…..
    picking up picks for 2015 & 2016….
    REBUILD !!!!!!!!!


    Isn’t that what the Rams have done for the past few years? How’s that working out? Get a QB and workout the rest of the pieces. In this league, you need a QB and then you can build on the rest of the team.

  16. Brandon Says:

    He started both Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton as rookies. I don’t think Lovie would have an issue starting a rookie if he gave us a better chance to win.

  17. Bucfan4life Says:

    So rasta an do you have season tix? You wanna pay good money to add a couple of linemen and still have no QB? Bringing McCown back and adding a few linemen doesn’t do anything to excite the fan base and doesn’t address the biggest need for this team. Obviously they will rebuilding for a few years after the mistakes made last offseason. With a top 3 pick you have to go after a franchise QB. Having a good line and McCowns and Glennons back there will mean 7-9 seasons at best. I don’t care if he sits all of next year, we have to draft a QB.

  18. meh Says:

    If Winston is the answer, the question must be “how can the Bucs throw more INTs?”.

  19. gracelivin Says:

    The reason Hoyer has a better QBR in the last 3 min is because he has to come back whereas Manning, Brady, Rodgers… are ahead in the last 3 min and don’t need to be trying to catch up against a prevent defense that lets you catch underneath stuff, so you add up comp % and yds to make the the QBR go up. Look at QBR for the entire game tells you how good a QB is.
    As for the Bucs we need to draft a QB, first then look to o-line. I think Marriota is far better thrower and evader than Winston, plus his off field is impeccable whereas Winston spends more time in court than on the field.

  20. bucrightoff Says:

    Rex Grossman played only after the Bears were eliminated from the playoffs (Lovie rolled with legends Chris Chandler and Kordell Stewart lol…). Orton started because Rex got injured, outplayed Rex’s numbers and got sent to the bench. Orton was promptly demoted to third string for Brian Griese.

    So yeah Brandon when the season is over or he has no choice, he’ll play a rookie. When he badly needs wins to keep his job? Not happening.

  21. RealityCheck Says:

    As long as we still get to call him the 4th best QB in the division…

  22. Sick of this $hit Says:

    Winston and Mariota are the two big names this year. Just like Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, and Manziel were the big names last year. Nobody can predict how a kid is going to react to being thrown into the starting role in the NFL. Could be a bust, could be solid gold. I dont think you should avoid drafting your QB because your worried about him being a bust. We have the pick, now lets go get him. Or wait til 2016 and be on the fence about the next crop of college QBs coming out. Either way, our current QBs arent cutting the mustard.

  23. Sick of this $hit Says:


    That was great. Thank you.

  24. RastaMon Says:

    Trade down twice in the 1st round…..
    picking up picks for 2015 & 2016….
    REBUILD !!!!!!!!!
    yes that is what I wan to do….the OL is a unit and it is the weakest part of the team….we have seen this year that it matters not who the QB is….or who the RB is…nothing happens.
    This franchise does not need a rookie QB getting traumatized behind thi line again next year
    build a proper foundation first
    in my scenario we could still take a QB with the 1st pick later in the 1st round and have plenty of picks too…

  25. tmaxcon Says:

    for all the INT”s winston throws, He has NOT lost a game in 2 years….

    He’s got more wins in just 2 years than Gerald McCoy has since he has been in tampa what are we going on 4 or 5 years now for McCoy? I know a winner is a foreign concept to us bucs fan right now but damn the kids a bonehead that just wins.

    Bad mouth Winston all you want. He is a knucklehead that will grow up with the right people around him. Again, the object of the NFL is to win

  26. tmaxcon Says:

    The mere fact that the names in this post getting tossed around are:

    Stewart, Orton, McCown, Glennon, Grossman, Chandler, Cutler and Hoyer says all you need to know about Lovies expertise in picking or keeping Quarterbacks. NONE of those QB’s have every won anything consistently. Hell Dilfer’s got a ring LOL….

  27. 87ForJameisOrMariota Says:

    meh Says:
    December 3rd, 2014 at 10:09 am

    “If Winston is the answer, the question must be “how can the Bucs throw more INTs?”.”

    As Joe stated on the JBF Hour yesterday. Peyton Manning threw like 19 INT’s in his final college season.

  28. RastaMon Says:

    “As Joe stated on the JBF Hour yesterday. Peyton Manning threw like 19 INT’s in his final college season.”
    that is a meaningless comparison on face value….

  29. 87ForJameisOrMariota Says:

    RastaMon…NOT if you’re going by stats and that’s what MOST of you are doing when you whine about Winston’s 17 INT’s.

  30. Pewter_Power Says:

    Sign Brian Hoyer, draft a couple of quality offensive lineman and bring in Mike Martz. Problem solved.

  31. bucrightoff Says:

    What do Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning all have in common? Besides being elite?

    Zero national titles….zero Heismans. Winning in college is totally irrelevant, and winning the Heisman is generally a strong mark against a QB being elite.

  32. RastaMon Says:

    Jameis has all sorts of legal claims waiting in the weeds….they don’t want to diminish his bank roll before the file their claims….

  33. MTM Says:

    Winston is not the answer at QB. Yeh I know how “finds a way to win”. Its the FSU defense that has won games that Winston basically gift wrapped to their opponents in the first half.

    Hoyer is probably better right now than McClown in Cleveland. If Hoyer was picked up by the Bucs he would immediately revert in the Bucs system. Mariotta is the best solution in the draft. The Bucs need a quarterback with intelligence and athleticism. Not the next Vince Young.

  34. mikeh Says:

    really joe! I said this weeks ago this pinhead does not want a rookie QB that’s why he picked up 35 year old career backup. also next year he will need to win games to save his job. he will not play a rookie!

  35. 87ForJameisOrMariota Says:

    Pewter_Power Says:
    December 3rd, 2014 at 11:19 am

    “Sign Brian Hoyer, draft a couple of quality offensive lineman and bring in Mike Martz. Problem solved.”

    Then the Bucs set franchise lows for attendance next season. Attendance doesn’t matter to me as long as they are winning, but I’m sure it matters to someone at One Buc a lot.

    If I own a restaurant, the menu hasn’t changed in years, and my customers are dwindling. I have to do something major to bring customers back. I could go out and get some menu items from another place, then hope customers come back. Yet most people have already seen and eaten the food at the other place for years.


    I could find the best tasting, newest thing available that would blow my customers away. Something that would make customers WANT to come back.

    The posters on this thread that say a possible franchise QB will have to be drafted in order for fans to come back are 1000% correct. Whether I like it or not, they are correct. I don’t know how smart the Glazer boys are when it comes to American football, but I’m pretty sure they know they HAVE to make some big splash in the off season or RJS will be more empty than ever before next season. Let alone those crappy jersey’s they’re trying to peddle.

    Yeah let’s go get Hoyer and see how many jerseys he can sell.

    The NFL is a business, and owners are in it to make money. Sure the Glazers still make money despite the suck that is, but they can make a boatload more if they draft that right guy in the first round.

  36. Deminion Says:

    No!!!! to Hoyer Draft Winston!!!!

  37. mikeh Says:

    yes splash! show this idiot coach the door. but that will not happen so they have to do something. we shall see.

  38. 87ForJameisOrMariota Says:

    Draft Mariota and I’ll go to a few games next season even if he’s not starting.

    Draft Winston and you got me signed up for season tickets, plus 4 jersey’s.

  39. Mr. Patrick Says:

    Bucs can draft or trade for any QB out there, but no QB will look good in this horrible offensive scheme or behind this O-Line

  40. StPeteBucsFan Says:

    Here’s the problem with waiting until 2016. The Bucs are almost historically bad this season. They may not get to pick in the top 3 in 2016. If they have a top 2 pick and Mariotta is available….or Jameis if they’re not afraid of the off field stuff…then they probably need to pull the trigger.

    Having said that I’d also listen to offers. The Bucs are so far away from being good and need so much talent if they could get a Washington Redkins like offer for that 2nd pick and end up with multiple first rounders and another 2nd rounder…I gotta go with the volume. We simply have too many needs.

  41. biff barker Says:

    Lovie has to get the OC situation resolved first before this conversation is relevant. Licht and him have some FA shopping to do on the OL too.

    I can’t see the Glazers keeping him past next season with the same result.

  42. buzzed Says:

    @ meh

    How many years have you been unwrapping poop at xmas?

  43. Kevin Schmidt Says:

    There are a handful of QB’s that can do well enough to win games with good play calling and protection. We don’t have that. Aaron Rodgers would laugh if he practiced with the bucs for a day. The team sucks and unless something happens with the coaching the offense will always suck…PERIOD!!!!!

  44. Todd Says:

    if the bucs pick first or 2nd you have to take mariota or winston otherwise glazers are not going to sell tickets next year! ya if you want to bring in hoyer fine but winston or mariota must be his back up at least.