Run May Have Been Right Call
September 17th, 2013
Joe knows Bucs fans have had little sleep after the Bucs let the Saints and Drew Brees off the hook Sunday, falling to 0-2, which recent history shows is a death knell to a season (but a good omen for a decent draft pick the following spring).
All the tranactions made in the offseason, all the drama concerning quarterbacks, tight ends, defensive linemen. All the anticipation and hope built up through the too long offseason and within the first eight days of the season — poof! — it is all gone.
Many Bucs fans have eaten countless Tums in the past two nights angry with Bucs commander Greg Schiano for not letting Bucs franchise quarterback Josh Freeman try to beat the Saints when a first down would have sealed a win late in the fourth quarter.
Instead, Bucs offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan called a run play with Doug Martin that got three yards when it needed six.
Bucs fans are still somewhat livid with the call, but X’s and O’s guru Greg Bedard of theMMQB.com explains in great detail that Sullivan called the correct play, and if not for a fantastic play by Saints outside linebacker Junior Galette, the Bucs would have won.
What happened: The Saints had just taken their final timeout, so if the Buccaneers had converted this third down, the game would have been over and Saints quarterback Drew Brees never would have gotten a shot to drive the field for a game-winning field goal. Bucs offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan had to strike a balance between making sure the clock would run after the play with staying aggressive enough to get a game-ending first down. The play Sullivan called—a counter toss—was a very good call, and it would have done the job had left outside linebacker Junior Galette (93) followed the flow of the play like a majority of NFL players normally would.
The design was very good, and so was the execution by Tampa Bay. The initial movement of the play was away from Galette: Martin took a step to his left, and the fullback blocked that way and even the right guard pulled to that side. The entire front seven of the Saints flowed to that side, except Galette. He must have read quarterback Josh Freeman coming out from center to the right, or quickly saw Martin come back to the right. Whatever Galette’s key was, he was spot on. He took two steps up the field in perfect position with his shoulders parallel to the line of scrimmage. When Freeman pitched the ball to Martin, Galette sprinted outside of Martin to force him back to the inside. The slight adjustment allowed the Saints’ pursuit players to make a tackle three yards short of the first down.
The play is predicated on Galette being fooled by the run action and being sucked up inside. If that happened, the play would have gone for a first down because the Bucs had the rest of the play blocked reasonably well. But because Galette stayed home, he blew the play up and gave Brees a chance to put the Saints in scoring position. Even more amazing is that Galette, despite getting a piece of Martin’s leg and being the key to the play, wasn’t even credited with a tackle.
Yeah, Joe knows. If his grandmother had a pair, she’d be a grandfather.
But Joe posts this from Bedard, an objective source who has no vested interest in either the Bucs nor the Saints, to explain that on film, the play was a good call. It just took a fantastic play by one player to blow it up.
Yes, Joe is perturbed at the loss as well. The defense, despite shooting itself in the foot with penalties, played absolutely lights out for 59 minutes. That may have been the best performance Joe has seen a Bucs defense play since the 1999 NFC title game. Just like that fateful day, on Sunday the Bucs faced a lethal offense with one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game and had the Saints in a choke-hold.
It was, and is, criminal such a performance was wasted, and if history is a barometer, so too a season.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:03 pm
The FG attempt was the bad call, not the run
September 17th, 2013 at 12:05 pm
Look had Freeman thrown incomplete then everyone would be saying they should’ve run!
September 17th, 2013 at 12:07 pm
What about the playcall on 2nd and 6? Why couldn’t we have tried a pass there, quick slant to Jackson and THEN run on 3rd down (if there even was a 3rd down!). What then?
Who cares about 3rd and 6, 2nd and 6 could have had a better playcall
September 17th, 2013 at 12:08 pm
Would have liked the Bucs to run on 4th down. Saints had no timeouts, clock would have kept running. Just a thought, doesn’t matter now, but they need to be aggressive.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:08 pm
Schiano is a run first guy. Your best weapon on offense is a RB. You have a 1 point lead agianst a great offense who has been shut down all day by your D, at worst you go for the 3 points and force them to get a TD to win. It was the right call… not sure why anyone would dispute this. It would of worked to, only thing is the missed FG threw a monkey wrench into the whole plan.
Hindsight is 20/20. Why would you want to put the ball into a guy’s hands who routinely turns the ball over. He already had 2 turnovers in that game alone. Use your brains a little bit.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:11 pm
You can use hindsight all day to say they should’ve called this play on that down and so on but at the end of the day, Lindell HAS to make that kick!
September 17th, 2013 at 12:11 pm
Don’t know why Joe and everybody are saying we are done for the season! There’s a lot of futball left, and the way the Bucs played in that game suggest that we are headed in the right direction. I don’t know about you guys, I saw a dominant defense, and a “good” Josh (this one is not on him, ask VJ), and Martin will be running all over the place. Com’on guys, there’s still LOTS of Hope!! Just GO BUCS!!
September 17th, 2013 at 12:13 pm
It didn’t work.
So no it was not the right call.
Freeman may be the most inconsistant QB in the NFL an he played terrible in that game but one thinghe has sown time and time gain is that he can make a play in the 4th quarter.
He had just made two big time throws to V-Jax for 1st downs.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:14 pm
“a “good” Josh”
9-22, 125 yards, 2 turnovers. I’d hate to see the “non good” Josh.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:15 pm
What enrages me more than anything on Sunday was the penalty called on Claiborne. That was a fair, legal hit on Brees that forced a turnover but NOPE! You don’t do that to Drew Brees! At least not if your The Buccaneers!
September 17th, 2013 at 12:16 pm
Iamabuc:
In the last three years, every team that started 0-2 finished with a losing record. No team in last four years has made the playoffs after an 0-2 start.
Given how incredibly strong the NFC is, and Bucs tough schedule, it would take an Act of God to make playoffs now.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:16 pm
Get first downs to run the clock out. Roll out and run a TE w option for Freeman to turn the corner if its open. Need a tight end to catch the ball. You can’t run an NFL offense without a pass catching TE. Shiano offense sucks.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:20 pm
Even though we lost the sky should not be falling. if we won we would be darlings in the NFL world. it’s a painful loss. but it will get better, the team just needs to stay positive. go bucs.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:24 pm
There has to be a way to get Stocker and/or Ogletree open. I know they’re not good but c’mon. If Jackson and Williams each have a CB and a Safety playing over top there just has to be a way to get them open.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:25 pm
I love how our defense it out there hitting people.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:26 pm
You can’t pick at one run/pass decision. That’s silly.
However, what you can pick at is Schiano’s decision not to employ his whole offense on a set of downs where if they squeeze out a first down in any way they win the game. It was the same thing in the Jets game last week: if you get a first down (even after two or three incomplete passes; i.e. little clock movement) then effectively you will win. Alternatively, if you don’t get the first down you don’t have enough plays to burn all the clock even if all 3 plays keep the clock moving.
In that situation, you absolutely have to be willing to use your whole offense. Sure running clock leaves you in a good position to win, but it sill gives the other guys a chance. But get a first down and you win. It’s a no-brainer: you have to play such that you maximize your chance of getting a first down, not to maximize running clcok.
However, if we want to beat on Schiano over a single decision, that would be his decision to _not_ line up and try to draw them offsides on 4th and 3. You have the timeout in your pocket so you can run the playclock down with the offense up at the line. If you draw them off, you win. Not taking that opportunity is either stupidity or a complete lack of confidence in your offense. And if you’re truly worried that your guys will flinch in a “we’re not snapping the ball ever situation”, then clearly you and your whole staff need to go because you can’t coach.
Also, I would’ve been a bit inclined to go for it on 4th-and-3 rather than try a 47-yarder on a wet field, but both options are justifiable. (Peter King’s belief that they should’ve punted in that spot is, on the other hand, pure idiocy.)
September 17th, 2013 at 12:26 pm
Hindsight is 20/20 for sure. If the bucs went for it on 4th down and failed, and Brees had the same drive down the field to kick the winning FG, you all would be calling for Schiano’s head. ‘Why didn’t he just kick the field goal? Why give Brees the opportunity to go 40 yards and win the game?’
The bottom line is that the D was dominating the Saints all game, and the Offense was pathetic. Any reasonable person would prefer to rely on the D in that situation.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:29 pm
@HolyMoly:
Clock only keeps running if you pick up the first down on 4th and 3. If you don’t get it, clock stops due to change in possession.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:31 pm
Wake me up when this team is actually respectable again.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:32 pm
Not reall sure who would rather have the ball in Josh’s hands than the Dougernaut. Some frightening numbers from the good folks at Football Outsiders
“On Tampa Bay’s side of the field, Freeman went 8-of-17 for 120 yards with five first down. That’s not very good. Across midfield, he went 1-of-5 for 5 yards with one touchdown, one sack-fumble, and an interception. That’s significantly worse.”
September 17th, 2013 at 12:33 pm
Trust a guy who has thrown for 125 yards and a 41%(rounded up) completion rate in the game, or the guy who has run for 140 at ~5 yards a carry. Jee, I wonder. Incomplete stops the clock, run does not.
41%, That was your chance with Josh throwing on Sunday. FORTY ONE PERCENT! The kicker had a 50% chance. Martin was averaging ~5 yards a carry. Come on and think about it.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:34 pm
This article actually DOESN’T say it was the right call, only that it COULD have worked if executed better, or if the Saints defense was still as bad as last year.
Any 6 yards would have counted. An offsides penalty would have meant only 1 yard, a pass play would have been a first day too, same result as what could have been here.
I would have been ok with the call had we not done the exact same thing last week. That’s two weeks in a row, we’ve run the ball on 3rd down and not gotten it. And once last season.
All I ask for as a fan, is a coaching staff that learns from past mistakes or losses. It appears – yes, this is my perception – that they have not learned from those mistakes.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:35 pm
Freeman may have had a few drops from his receivers…..yeah yeah yeah yeah. We get it. But it is HIS job to step up and lead this offense and inspire the guys around him. This is a guy that we had to spend a 1st rounder on 4 years ago……so he better damn well start playing better! He’s wasted 5 years of our time.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:35 pm
FG wasn’t the right call because of the field position and the high powered offense they were facing. It’s not like we needed the 3 points to win, we already had the lead. Defense was playing extraordinary inspired football despite the ref bad calls all around, and NO had no time out left. You back them as far as you can and let the defense give up the 10yarders in the middle of the field while the clock runs out. Schiano made the bet that a kicker with a 67% accuracy from this range was going to make it.. and he lost its bet. Sorry not good enough against the Saints. I would rather have a run on 4th down than a field goal try in that scenario.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:36 pm
Of course it was the right call. You don’t pass and take a chance on killing the clock with an incomplete pass or worse yet, a tipped ball and possibly an interception.. Going for the 3 pts. was the right call too. Why this is even disputable is beyond me. You keep the clock moving and you go for points with a veteran kicker who is usually money. Didn’t work but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t the correct call. If you want to see a bad call…go with the Saints taking points off of the board to go for a TD on fourth and 1 and getting stuffed. You should NEVER take points off of the board in my opinion.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:37 pm
The defensive performance for 59 minutes was just awesome to watch, but the best performance since the 1999 title game? Aren’t you forgetting about that 2002 season, the one in which the Bucs had one of the best defensive seasons in NFL history and destroyed the Oakland Raiders to win the Super Bowl?
But all quibbles aside, the defense last week did remind me of the days when Brooks, Sapp, Rice, Lynch and Barber where lined up and attacking the opponents offense. Those were some good times.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:38 pm
I agree that the FG was the bad call. lindell is 69% for his career from that distance. So we are looking at 69% chance of having a 4 point lead and giving Brees a minute to get a touchdown and a 31% chance of only having a 1 point leade giving Brees a minute to get a FG. If we go for it on 4th and 3 (I think) we have a 50% chance of winning the game. and 50% chance of giving brees a minute to get a fg. So the Choices are.
1. 69% of 4 point lead. Brees has a min to score a TD.
or
2. 50% chance of winning the game.
When dealing with brees I think the obvious choice is to go for it. Every. Time. Also why did they not call a timeout right before the pass to colston. They were obviously completely out of sync in the back end.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:40 pm
I said this is as soon as I saw the play. The game falls on Rian Lindell
September 17th, 2013 at 12:41 pm
Best defense since 1999 NFC title game?
hahahahahhahahhaha…..
Just when I thought I had read it all……..
September 17th, 2013 at 12:43 pm
@vargus if you dont get it your left with a situation where Brees is in excellent position to drive down the field. Of Lindell makes that kick, Brees would need to score a TOUCHDOWN. They ONLY SCORED ONE ALL GAME. I don’t mind the call, of course we are all right in hindsight
September 17th, 2013 at 12:50 pm
Joe, not sure why you think the NFC is “incredibly strong”. NFC is 1-5 against the AFC this year. Of the 18 teams ahead of us in Sagarin ratings, 9 are NFC and 9 are AFC.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:52 pm
@Joe
“Given how incredibly strong the NFC is, and Bucs tough schedule, it would take an Act of God to make playoffs now.”
I’m pretty sure God don’t respond well to “Toes-on-the-line” threats
September 17th, 2013 at 12:52 pm
I honestly don’t understand why anyone had any issue with either the run all or the FG call. They were both smart decisions.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:52 pm
Should’ve, could’ve, would’ve. Have a nice day! 😀
September 17th, 2013 at 12:54 pm
Vargas,
I highly doubt there is a 50% success rate in the NFL on 4th and 3. It’s probable more like 25-30%.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:54 pm
@Touchdown Gus I understand that but Brees is damn good and we had stopped him all day. But I know that in a quick tempo offense he has always ALWAYS gutted us. Thats just what he does to just about any team. It is just hindsight but i thought we should have taken a win that was only 3 yards away. Of course I do not think Schiano trusted the offense to get those 3 yards. And that is a problem.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:55 pm
@lightning buc I was going off this. http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-3.html
September 17th, 2013 at 12:58 pm
Joe your prediction before the season started was the Bucs would finish 8-8. Maybe you will be right? I predicted 11-5 or 10-6. They would really have to catch fire to reach my 11-5 mark. The 10-6 though is still do-able. Have hope. When I did my predictions. I counted the first two games as wins. The Bucs were THAT close to making my prediction on pace to be correct. Have hope. Hope is all Bucs fans can hold onto right now. However I did have the Bucs falling to N.E., but I still have hope for a winning record.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:59 pm
Vince,
I had no problem with the 3rd-and-3 against Jets last week. Thought that was the right call. Conservative, but right call.
But making the run call on 3rd-and-6 to give ball back to Drew Brees AFTER the defense gave up same issue to a rookie QB last week shows arrogance and an unwillingness to learn from past mistakes.
I don’t care how bad he plays for 3 quarters or how great the defense is. Drew Brees is Drew Brees. Just like Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning.
Just my opinion, but I’d rather play to win than play not to lose.
September 17th, 2013 at 12:59 pm
I just see if it was me versus someone in anything. And I had the chance to end it by myself without putting anything to chance. I would go for it. And if I messed up oh well. I would have tried not to give my opponent a 1% chance at winning. and thats what we could have done by going for it on 4th.
September 17th, 2013 at 1:02 pm
After 10 years, I guess I’ve decided to look at the positives, it’s the only thing we have left, at this point. Besides, I guess I just have a lot of faith, after all, in paper, we have the best Bucs Team assemble after the SB crew back in 2003.
September 17th, 2013 at 1:02 pm
Joe please explain to your readers how you predicted an 8-8 season, but yet you expected the Bucs to make the playoffs in a like you say strong NFC? Why were you expecting playoffs, were you hoping that you were wrong on your prediction?
September 17th, 2013 at 1:02 pm
And again I say it, after Freeman skipped a 3 yard out to Ogletree’s feet on a 3rd down play, Schiano’s body language said it all. At that point, he lost all trust and confidence in Josh, at least for the remainder of the game which is why we had 3 straight runs with a chance to ice the game.
September 17th, 2013 at 1:06 pm
Vargas,
I apologize. From that chart, I’m obviously wrong. Surprised the conversion rates are that high.
September 17th, 2013 at 1:12 pm
Oh and the run was the right call. FG should have been made. Then a squib kick making the Saints return the ball and chew more time off the clock. Some coaches are gamblers some are not. Dungy would have done the same thing Schiano did. Gruden on the other hand was a gambler.
September 17th, 2013 at 1:15 pm
@TampaMac….what play are you talking about??? I don’t remember any pass being skipped at Ogletree’s feet. I do remember a pass that was intended for V-Jax where V-jax got knocked on his butt just inside the 5 yard zone as he tried to make his break and the ball was thrown.
September 17th, 2013 at 1:21 pm
Bobby- It was a drive or 2 before the last one. Short out route and what should’ve been an easy throw.
September 17th, 2013 at 1:32 pm
If we made the FG we wouldn’t be having this conversation. A 47 yarder is not an unreasonable expectation for a professional kicker in the NFL. They happen week in and week out. Lindell has to make the kick, then let our defense stop Brees from scoring a TD.
September 17th, 2013 at 1:41 pm
The wind was blowing hard from west to east and worse yet, it was very gusty making it really hard to judge how much to allow. From our end zone seats, you could see that kicks were being blown all over the place. In warm ups, more kicks were missed than made by both teams. (yeah I know, he hit it bad anyway)
Bad decision to place the game in the hands of a 46 yard field goal with a STRONG crosswind and a 3rd choice kicker. Gotta roll out and throw a short pass or eat it if not open.
Reminds me of Dungy’s decision in Green Bay on a windy Christmas eve to take consecutive knees going back 3-4 yards each time. We miss FG and have to go on the road to Philly to start the playoffs instead of a bye and a home game.
September 17th, 2013 at 1:45 pm
Tampamac…
..are you talking about the play where one of our guys false started and the late flag was thrown? thats the only one i can remember when free short hopped it and schiano pinched the bridge of his nose. i thought it was more in reference to the penalty than the pass.
September 17th, 2013 at 2:04 pm
Celly-That’s the play but I didn’t remember a penalty. I sure remember that throw though and that was my thinking to Schiano’s reaction.
September 17th, 2013 at 2:22 pm
I’ll never understand anyone that says the right call was a call that failed.
The bucs run that play a lot. I see numerous a year. The saints have seen that play numerous times. It wasn’t as if it was a very tricky play. It was a basic misdirection play that took your lead blockers away from the run. Terrible play call, IT DIDNT WORK! But since they called that play fine. I can live with that. But trying a 47 yard fg against the wind is idiotic at best. Miss it and u lose. Make it you still give Brees a chance to win. The right call is go for it and go for the win. U trusted Doug Martin the first 3 plays why don’t you trust him on 4th down? U trust a scrub kicker with a long fg on a windy day over Doug Martin? That was the call that sealed the fate of this team. This team can’t win when the coaches play scared.
September 17th, 2013 at 2:43 pm
Thirty one teams knew that run was coming. Too conservative and vanilla on offense.
Open up the offense Schiano! Adjust and adapt.
September 17th, 2013 at 2:48 pm
I am glad that anyone calling for a pass on the last few plays is not our offensive coordinator (and I don’t really even like Sully). Freeman’s biggest weakness is short routes, and you all want us to throw a short slant or out route instead of handing the ball to our 140-yard running back and at least eating up some clock? Outrageous. I would have been fine with a run on the 4th-down play, as it would have just given the Saints roughly the same field position if we didn’t get it. A pass or punt would have been even more ridiculous on 4th-down.
Also, for those complaining about giving Lindell a shot, he made a 37-yarder the week before, and he gets paid too. Schiano gave him a chance to prove himself, and he simply didn’t convert.
September 17th, 2013 at 2:53 pm
The only problem with the call is everybody knew there was a near-zero chance the Bucs would trust JF5 to pass at that point in the game. The only question was what run play would they call. Whether anyone trusts JF5 or not if the Bucs will only take a shot when it doesn’t matter they put themselves at a severe disadvantage when it does. At this point it doesn’t matter whether anyone wants JF5 under center next year or not, the team can’t win if the play called is designed to keep JF5 from losing the game rather than having the guts to roll the dice and try to win. I get the decision to try the FG but I’d rather they went for it and left Brees 7 or 8 yds further back with less time on the clock and no time outs and then facing a more aggressive pass rush than the one he faced. Fortune favors the bold.
September 17th, 2013 at 3:01 pm
It doesn’t matter if the design was good, you don’t run there unless you’re planning on going for it on 4th. Then, you either go for it or at least punt on 4th. You don’t send your 4th kicker option out there and leave Brees a short field.
Everything about that sequence was wrong. Everything.
September 17th, 2013 at 3:04 pm
@tampa2step I did not agree with the call vs the jets. Big difference is that the run wasnt working all game long. What had worked all game log was Vincent Jackson. Why the hell didn’t they go back to him again
September 17th, 2013 at 3:22 pm
It’s always a good play when it works and a bad play when it doesn’t.
September 17th, 2013 at 3:40 pm
You people are so funny. “Everybody knew there was a near zero chance of Freeman throwing it.” Really??!? Then how did they move down the field to begin with? Seems to me he threw a few nice passes to Jackson to get us down the field as well as some nice Martin runs. All of you seem to think the pass was the way to go so… are you trying to say that the defensive coordinator on the other side was thinking pass was the way to go also or are you just smarter than he was? If you’re thinking pass and he’s thinking pass then the run should work right?
What I’m trying to say is it’s not as cut and dried as you make it out to be. Look what happened to the Saints when they decide to defy the odds and take points off of the board to try and score the TD. Do you agree with that decision? Hey…play to win right? Turned out to be foolish. That was only trying to get 1 yard. We needed to get 6 yards. You put the ball in the air and bad things can happen…a holding penalty, a tipped ball resulting in a pick, a sack, or an incomplete pass stopping the clock. Nope….I like my odds running Martin if I’m in that position. The defense has been playing great all day long. I would have never guessed they would have folded like a cheap chair in the final minute but they did. Oh well…stuff happens. Great game, we lost. Move on.
September 17th, 2013 at 4:37 pm
I was totally on board with running Martin on 3’rd and 6. My problem was kicking a field goal instead of going for the 1’st Jugular Win on 4’th down. No guts, no balls, no brains. You lost because you are a lousy game manager Schiano. Your players deserve better than you.
Condensed version: Schiano you Suck!!!
September 17th, 2013 at 4:39 pm
I think Joe nailed it when he said ” Why was Revis covering the rookie on the Saints’ final big play?”
How many were there? Which way did they go? I must find them for I’m their leader.
September 17th, 2013 at 5:32 pm
We lost because our QB sucks and couldn’t come up with 1 completion per possession. Thats right we had more possessions that josh had completions… we lost because Josh sucks big donkey testies
September 17th, 2013 at 7:44 pm
@JOE
Why was my post removed????? IS IT BECAUSE I SAID WE WAS WORSE OFF WITH RAHEEM THAN NOW???? I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHY I KEEP GETTING REMOVED. I SAID NOTHING ABOUT YOUR BOY THE BIG DOG, NOTHING BAD ABOUT ANYBODY EVEN JOSH. SO WHAT’S UP?????
]
September 17th, 2013 at 7:54 pm
When they ran on 3 & 6, I agreed with that, because I thought that was 4 down territory. Go for it on 4th & 3. NEVER give Brees the ball back.
September 18th, 2013 at 12:58 am
’99 NFC Champ game was arguably the best defensive performance ever in a losing effort – no need to use hyperboles here. Pretty sure the ’99 defense wouldn’t have crumbled so badly, much less two straight weeks. The real question is, ’98-99 D or ’02-03 D?
Matter of fact, I’m starting to get depressed thinking about that game now instead of the abortion that was this previous Sunday’s. Why couldn’t Brian Kelly cover Ricky Proehl that one time??
On 4th and 3, Bucs should’ve done play action bootleg with a receiving option (pretty sure the whole stadium would expect a run). If you can’t convert there, you deserve to lose.