The Chances Of A Bounce-Back Season

July 15th, 2012

In the last season of the Chucky regime, the Bucs collapsed down the stretch with an old, worn out defense. Still, the Bucs were in the hunt for a playoff berth to the bitter end.

Then came Raheem Morris and the Bucs mired through a three-win season, only to bounce back and lose a playoff tiebreaker to the eventual Super Bowl-winning Packers in 2010.

In 2011, the Bucs may have put together one of the ugliest seasons in recent NFL campaigns, capped by a grotesque 10-game losing streak and the jettisoning of Morris.

So with a new coach and new players, highlighted by Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, could the Bucs win 10 games? It’s not out of the question, writes Joe Fortenbaugh of the

The interesting thing to take away from Tampa’s three-year roller coaster ride is that we should have seen it coming. What happened to the Buccaneers wasn’t an anomaly. It’s actually a common trend that has taken place around the league more than you might expect.

Over the last ten years there have been 29 instances in which an NFL team went 7-9 or worse and then came back the following year to win at least ten games.

And in 26 of those instances, teams followed up that impressive 10-win campaign with a record of 9-7 or worse. What does that tell us? Since 2002, there’s an 89.6% chance that a team who bounces back from a losing season to post ten or more wins the following fall is headed for a step in the wrong direction come year three.

Now can the Bucs make a run at the playoffs this season? Well, Joe will not go that far, though the NFC South is notorious for up-and-down seasons.

Joe does believe the Bucs will be better. How could they not? Joe just has a hunch that the Bucs new coaching staff knows the value of running the ball and won’t waste talent by using a Chucky-and-duck, pass-first mentality.

18 Responses to “The Chances Of A Bounce-Back Season”

  1. bucobruce Says:

    10-6 and in the playoffs nuf said.If your on board with me and other real optimistic buc fans give me a


  2. CanadianBucsFan Says:

    I’m very confident that our bucs will be much improved this upcoming season. With a better coaching staff, 3 big free agency pickups (4 if you count Okoye) and a solid draft + an easy schedule compared to this past season, we should definetely be more competitive this year. If i had to come up with a prediction for our record next year I’d say 10-6

  3. Macabee Says:

    I would love for the Bucs to have a 10 game winning season and typically that would mean a playoff spot. But, I’m not counting on it nor am I asking for it. I want the Bucs to do what they originally promised in 2009 – build a football team primarily through the draft that will be competitive for years to come. The problem was not primarily through the draft, it was exclusively through the draft and that did not work!

    Some blame the talent, some blame the coaches, some blame both. Well this year that all changed. We went to FA, had what is perceived to be a solid draft, and hired a brand new, more experienced coaching staff – one that is supposed to teach the basics, stress fundamentals and bring discipline to a young football team. I expect to see significant improvement as a result, but not miracles.

    Everyone will agree that last year, we were a bad football team. But somebody needs to explain to me what I saw with my own eyes – we beat the 2 best teams in our division and I don’t think it was a fluke. We beat the Saints, who some would say is the best team in our division, at least once in the last 3 years. Better minds than me can explain what happened in the last 10 games. I’m not looking back, I prefer to look forward!

    I don’t care how many games we win or where the defense is ranked this year. I just want to see our young men knowing and growing in their positions and fighting from the coin toss to the final whistle. If we do that, the wins and the better rankings will come. From where I sit, we’ve gotten better at every position (except LB and DE – you can’t fix everything in one year and the loss of Bowers was unfortunate) and while I don’t think we’re Super Bowl bound, I don’t think we’re chopped liver either. So never say never!!

  4. Garv Says:


    That’s good enough for me. I remain optimistic, hopeful and excited for this coming season.

    Buccaneers in 2012?

    Can’t WAIT!!!

  5. bucobruce Says:

    Maybe 11-5 just watch,we will shock a lot of teams this year they will not know what were doing.All of the tape out there on us is useless now.We will be better at every postion,our yougsters are another year in to it and our new additions will also make everone I cant wait.


  6. Thomas2.2 Says:

    I am really rooting for Josh.

    He has 2, really 1 because they are connected, flaw. His accuracy and footwork. His footwork is sloppy which causes inaccuracy but he also misses balls unrelated to footwork.

    I think it difficulty reading coverages is a contributor.

    I remember Josh’s inaccuracy at K State really standing out which is why he wasn’t drafted earlier. Josh was so huge and strong in the pocket but he never seemed to impress against the top opponents.

    I think Sulli will make a great impression.

  7. Bobby Says:

    @macabee…you don’t think LaVonte David improved us at LB??

  8. Deminion Says:

    10-6 go bucs!!

  9. Macabee Says:


    Yes I do think Lavonte David is an improvement at WLB. I had pretty much written a novel and didn’t want to get into the details. I meant improvement that could make a substantial difference this year. I wanted the Bucs to get an experienced MLB that could hold that position until one of our younger less experienced LBs (Foster,maybe) could step into that role. I still think we are missing that QB of the defense.

  10. Mr Lucky Says:

    @Macabee – nice prior post and something I wholeheartly agree with.

    While I’m optimistic about the changes the Bucs have done – jetisoned Coach RahRah and picked up some top tier FA’s I’m not sold on the Bucs defensive plan, in particular the D-Line and LB corps.

    It’s funny but I’m actually ok with Rhonde switching to safety and I think it will extend his career. I’ve just had GMC not live up to his expectations these past two years that I can’t get amped for him yet, especially when training camp hasn’t opened. The loss of Bowers for the year is a setback

    As for the coaches, well let’s just see how things play out. I believe they are an upgrade over the prior staff but then again the Glazers attempted to convince us that Rah et al was an improvement over Gruden and company and it wasn’t.

  11. Patrick Says:

    No reason to believe it can’t happen.

    1978: 5-11. 1979: 10-6, one win away from SB

    1996: 6-10. 1997: 10-6

    2004: 5-11. 2005: 11-5

    2006: 4-12. 2007: 9-7

    Happened many times before

  12. Eric Says:

    I thought winning the division was a disgrace……..

  13. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Says:

    This run first mentality works great, IF you have a defense to keep it close.
    Unless we vastly improve our defense, we are going to be getting into shootouts, and will have to depend on Josh Freeman.
    I see us placing second in our division, a big improvement from last year.

  14. Dini's Biceps Says:

    I expect Freeman to clean-up his footwork this year (it’ll be easy to correct b/c he’s not a fat slob this season).

    Josh’s pre-snap reads are o.k. and he can see the whole BUT……once the ball is snapped, he only sees half the field and often already has his mind made up (which leads to scratch your head type of throws).

    He’s finally lost tons of weight. Maybe he’s serious about becoming an NFL QB now b/c it’s almost time for a new contract.

  15. Hawaiian Buc Says:

    @Dini’s Biceps,

    Obviously you have never met Freeman, because that is a stupid statement. I’ve met him 3 times, and he was never a fat slob. In fact, he always looks in very good shape. Leave it to some douche like you to make stuff up without any knowledge whatsoever. I’m still trying to figure out your contribution to this site, besides making everyone who reads your posts a little stupider.

  16. Dini's Biceps Says:

    he was chubby last year. and couldn’t run or throw on the run.

  17. Scubog Says:

    I learned a long time ago that few things are a certainty when predicting the outcome of the upcoming NFL seasons. With the 1979 Worst to First poster on the wall behind me, I know that it doesn’t take all that much to change a team’s fortunes for the better. Injuries play a major role. But so does the psyche of the team. They first need to believe they can dominate an opponent. That was Dungy’s first task and it is now Schiano’s. Contrary to what many national media think, this team does have enough talent to compete. It simply needs the budding “stars” to step up and lead.

  18. BedBug Says:


    I don’t care what the win-loss is as long as every game is close and we win some games against good opponents.

    We could win 6 games and I’d be happy as long as we start seeing some Buc defense again. Ill take ole Buc defense over Brady offense any day man.