Math Geek Details Bucs’ Historic Schedule

November 17th, 2011
“Oh, Joe, I get all sweaty when you talk about math.”

Unless it involves calculating cash, poker-pot odds or handicapping racing forms, Joe’s not too interested in math.

Joe doesn’t play fantasy football or buy into how the numbers crowd has soiled baseball. But Joe will look at stats and assess their worth.

In an annoying yet interesting piece for, Bill Barnwell rolls out some sort of fancy “Pythagorean expectation,” as he calls it, to explain that the Bucs have run into an historically tough schedule. Here’s a snippet:

The closest example of a schedule this tough was in 2000, when the Washington Redskins played six games against teams who had an average Pythagorean expectation of 11.6 wins. That group included both the eventual Super Bowl winners (Ravens) and losers (Giants), along with the Titans (13-3), Eagles (11-5), and Buccaneers (10-6), each of whom made the playoffs. The 7-9 Jaguars, who had a Pythagorean expectation of 9.1 wins, finished out the slate. Amazingly, the Redskins went 5-1 against this murderer’s row and still managed to miss the playoffs. It’s no surprise that Norv Turner was involved.

Feel free to click through above to make your head spin delve into the exciting world of football math.

Yes, the Bucs have had a very tough schedule. For Joe, however, that’s really not the issue. The problem is how the team is playing. Joe suspects fans would rally behind a young 4-5 Bucs team if it was a hard-hitting competitive bunch. If they can re-morph into that team, then a playoff berth is still in reach.

9 Responses to “Math Geek Details Bucs’ Historic Schedule”

  1. Ash Says:

    “Joe doesn’t play fantasy football” I never knew that before

  2. Joshua Licht Says:

    A very hard schedule this year indeed.

  3. SteveK Says:


    We are who we thought we were.

  4. Nick Says:

    Exactly Joe, its not like we are laying our hearts on the line against these top echelon teams. We are basically getting rolled week in and week out the last 3 or 4 games. Its more than disturbing that Raheem has had 3 years and this is what he produces. For a defensive guy to have this bad a defense is pretty much unacceptable. Lets just say Raheems defenses have been worse than Grudens offenses and thats one of the things that got him ran out of town besides the lack of development of young talent.

  5. thomas 2.2 Says:

    The article doesnt conclude that schedule is hard this year, just this 6 week stretch based on current records. If teams fall off their analysis will change substantially.

    If the team was losing close games to the niners texans bears that could support a schedule argument. Blowouts say something else.

  6. Mr. Lucky Says:

    Tough schedule…sore thumb…wah, wah wah.

    The 2011 Bucs can be summed up in one word: EXCUSES!

    You want a team to rally behind: Denver and Tebow Bronco’s

    It’s NOT about winning pretty – it’s about WINNING!

    Newsbreak – Tim Tebow INSPIRES his team. Tim Tebow inspires the defense to play better. Tim Tebow inspires his O-Line to work harder. Tim Tebow inspires his WR’s to BLOCK in the endzone so that Tim can score.

    What does Josh Free inspire? (crickets….crickets….crickets….)

  7. Thomas 2.2 Says:

    Rah’s new idiotic excuse: “the schedule is difficult.” this may be the dumbest thing he has said yet.

    1) he is admitting that his team is not good enough to beat good teams;
    2) he is finally admitting that last year was a joke 10-6.

    This should put all the naysayers from last year to bed on this issue. The were not a 10-6 football team, even Rah wants to admit that now – even if only to make it seem like he isn’t doing as horrible a job.

  8. Eric Says:

    There is no crying in football.

  9. Anthony Says:

    I’ll bet thomas 2.2 cried when Gruden was fired. This gave me some optimism.