“Over-Under For A Deal Is July 4”

June 13th, 2011




Joe can’t resist injecting optimism into this bright Monday morning.  

Joe doesn’t write about the details and developments of the asinine NFL lockout — no sense in boring everyone to tears — but Joe does follow the situation very closely.

Sports Illustrated football scribe Peter King, a man with piles of great sources, is spewing lots of optimism today about the end of the lockout in his Monday Morning Quarterback column on SI.com. Aside from referencing progress in meetings and various other stuff, King lays out a loss of $700 million if preseason games are cancelled. .

There are 11 nationally televised preseason games, beginning with the St. Louis-Chicago Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 7 on NBC. Each game has 60 ad buys, 30 seconds apiece. That’s 660 spots. Altogether, the preseason generates around $700 million in TV, gate and ancillary revenue. The reason this matters is if preseason games are gone, there’s going to be less 2011 money to share with players. The owners won’t like that, and the players won’t like it when the owners cut their offer once that money’s out the window.

Therefore, each side knows it’s to their advantage — both for getting players in shape as well as keeping the finances from plummeting — to make sure the preseason goes on as scheduled.

I said in SI the other day my over-under for a deal is July 4. I might say July 10 now, but I still think chances are better there will be a deal than there won’t — and that deal will come within a month.

Joe’s deciding to be giddy today, though aware this could turn out disappointing.

But $700 million smells like solid motivation to Joe.

11 Responses to ““Over-Under For A Deal Is July 4””

  1. Atrain WD40 Says:

    This puts a smile on my face. Hey Joe there is a report on ProSports daily that the framework for the new deal could be done in as little as two weeks.

    On Saturday morning, Kaplan tweeted, “Told optimism is so high in NFL, players talks over labor deal that expectation is for a framework agreement in about two weeks.”

  2. Macabee Says:

    I think there will be a framework for an agreement in two weeks (before July 4th) which will allow the owners to lift the lockout with a formal CBA coming in late July. When Judge Kermit Bye signalled that neither side would like it if the court decides this matter, most legal scholars assume that the court will overturn the lockout injunction (owners win,players lose) and recognize the decertification of the NFLPA as legitimate exposing the owners to anti-trust violations (players win,owners lose). The Brady/Brees anti-trust lawsuits can/will begin on August 19, and would be devastating to the owners if they lose, ie, no more owner collusion, no shared revenues, no more draft/free agency, etc. With no union and no paychecks beginning in September for most over-leveraged players (mortgages, cars, jewelry), the continued lockout would be equally devastating. They both now recognize that this is a zero-sum game – long-term everybody loses. With 9bil in total revenues at risk and a possible end of the NFL as we know it, there is motivation for both sides to get the deal done. I think the money will talk and the BS will walk. Get ready for some football!

  3. Atrain WD40 Says:

    Well said Macabee…Well said!

  4. Gary Says:

    Please let this hope be real. Its time we get this thing done.

  5. Amar Says:

    This read would have been cooler if it started out with, “Oatmeal eating, popcorn shoveling, hot dog scarfing, spaghetti slurping…Peter King”.

  6. Joe Says:


    Well, if you read King’s column today, it appears he doesn’t think he can get a decent meal at the Fruitdome.

  7. Amar Says:

    Enough said Joe, now that’s f’n funny!

  8. Gary Says:

    Hey guys, off topic but who wants to talk about the lockout anyway.

    There is a good article on PR about Crowder still wanting to stay with the Bucs because he knows Millard. It basically confirms that Wash’s read and react system was not suited for our D-line. Millard will unleash them like Rah wants!

    I’m trying to keep my expectations realistic but I really feel this next year will be special. A defense and offense to be feared!

  9. K24u Says:

    Gary — About 99 percent of free agents say they want to play for the old team. Duh. It’s part of the negotiating game. That story just said he met Millard and liked him. … A long time ago the Times wrote a story in a fun way about how frugal Crowder is. I suspect he’s running for the biggest check.

  10. BigMacAttack Says:

    I’d put the over-under on DaQuan Bowers at 10 sacks.

  11. Apple Roof Cleaning Says:

    Yes BMA, Bowers will be playing with an attitude, and 10 sacks may not be out of the question.