No Predicting First-Round Pick

April 23rd, 2011

Looking back at 2009, Joe and legions of other Bucs fans were praying Mark Dominik wouldn’t draft presumed bust-in-waiting Josh Freeman. Thank goodness Joe and the masses were wrong.

Last year, it was obvious Gerald McCoy was going to be the pick at No. 3 overall, unless manbeast-in-waiting Ndamakong Suh was somehow there.

This year, just about every pundit is calling a defensive end for the Bucs with the No. 20 pick. Frankly, Joe’s not taking any bets that will be the case. Joe keeps hearing about how Dominik “invested” heavily in defensive tackles last year, and to maximize that investment he’ll snag defensive ends this year.

That sounds nice, but Joe believes there are variables. What if Keith Millard, the new pass rush specialist/D-line coach, has poured over tape and believes he has untapped gems in youngsters Michael Bennett and Alex Magee? Joe has heard countless times it takes D-lineman a few years to blossom. Magee, a former third-round pick, turns 24 on draft day and Bennett is 25. Former Bucs DE Steve White often expressed high hopes for Bennett and raved of Bennett’s ability.

… If I could get that kid in the lab for a week or two I guarantee you I’d turn him into a monster. Basically I’d just teach him to unleash the beast that he already has shown he has in him and he would end up destroying people.

Maybe Millard thinks Kyle Moore was just poorly coached and that Tim Crowder has the motor and desire to be a top producer?

And remember Dominik’s comment about Brian Price and defensive end.

Joe believes the Bucs will draft a defensive end. But in the first round?

Dominik has stated his No. 2 priority in building a team is protecting the quarterback. And there sit the Bucs with an injured 30-year-old at starting center with a fat salary, and Davin Joseph and Jeremy Trueblood as unrestricted free agents. There’s absolutely no guarantee those guys return.

What if Mike Pouncey is there for the Bucs at No. 20? What if Dominik is confident he can trade down a handful of slots and still grab Goliath Gabe Carimi out of Wisconsin to play right tackle for the next 10 years?

If you tune to Justin “The Commish” Pawlowski’s exclusive interview with Dominik at 7 p.m. on WDAE-AM on Tuesday, you’ll hear Dominik talk about the great strength of this offensive tackle class.

Ferocious linebacker anyone?

It’s a crap shoot this year more than ever, especially with free agency a mystery. Good luck calling the Bucs’ first-round pick, if they even draft in the first round.

27 Responses to “No Predicting First-Round Pick”

  1. Tom Says:

    Yes, when you sit at 20 there are a number of places you can go based on who falls to you and who is available. But the Bucs most desperate need (and it is desperate) is a pass rushing end. There happens to be a number of talented pass rushers who are expected to go in round one. Hence if you had to bet, you know exactly where you’d put your money.

    Plus if the Bucs want a guard/center, Rodney Hudson is the way to go in Rd 2. Give the overrated Pouncey twin a chance to play with his brother again in Pittsburgh for a cost of their number 1 and watch as Hudson outplays him in the NFL just like he did in college.

  2. Gary Says:

    The more I look at this draft the more I think CB Jimmy Smith from Colorado will be the pick at #20. Smith is top 3 talent at CB, would be a top 10-15 talent if not for off-field issues*. Great insurance if we don’t have Talib full-time next season and best available talent if better DE’s are off the board.

    *From everything I’ve read Smith’s off-field issues are from 2007 and nothing since.

  3. Joe Says:


    Mark Dominik is not going to draft a guy like Smith No. 1 to replace Talib. Might as well keep Talib if you plan on drafting Smith.

    The only reason the Bucs will get rid of Talib is for off-field issues so why replace Talib with a guy who has off-field issues?

  4. RastaMon Says:

    JJ Watt…in a trade up

  5. Steve From Oregon Says:

    Agreed Joe…why would you replace Talib a proven player maker with issues, for Smith an upproven player with issues…that doesnt make too much sense.

    As far as dropping down a few spots, if we could pull that off, that would be great to get a free pick…there are so many ends available….have you seen Brooks Reed…that guy is a beast…and should be there, late 1 or early 2…man, so many options…

  6. Bill Says:

    I can definitely see the Bucs trading down and picking up an extra 2nd round pick. DE is deep this year and we could certainly use the extra pick on a LB or a corner. I like the idea of trading down.

  7. Achetti813 Says:

    It all depends what players fall to us but we could always trade back draft Sheard, Reed, Clayborn, or houston and pick up an extra 3rd rounder

  8. Weneeddefense Says:

    Cant wait for Thursday night… I have had enough of this speculation already.

    Right now, EVERYONE is a draft guru or talent evaluation genius of some kind.

    Has anyone ever took what wad said pre draft and compared those comments to the results years later???

    Link for it?

  9. Capt.Tim Says:

    I think trading up is a more likely option. We are not a team full of holes, like the last two drafts. This year we have specific needs to be filled. We don’t want to risk not addressing them. I can see us trading up for Cameron Jordan or even Robert Quinn, if the brain tumor causes a drop.

    I an worried about Bowden. He may drop to 20. I think he will either be a huge success , or a miss. He seems to have so many contradictory stats.

    I also still believe Clayborn could be the man, and will be a good DE. Talib hurt his chances, though. Bugs have become leery of off field issues.

  10. Thomas 2.2 Says:

    Based on recent history, i predict:

    That the bucs will draft the best available Under Tackle/3 technique on the board.

    Last year we drafted two and got none. Also, we may end up with better players on rounds 4-7 and ufas than rounds 1-3. Also, 2 olb and 2 corners are needed, as well as d line and o line.

    They can just take the best player avail, not a qb, and be fine.

  11. Fear The Glo Says:

    I don’t remember where I saw it but I saw an interview with Dominik months ago and he was talking about o-line and randomly brought up the draft without anyone really asking about it. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he picked a linemen in the 1st round.

  12. Achetti813 Says:

    Looks like thomas only scouts players based on rookie seasons and not potential for growth

  13. gotbbucs Says:

    if robert quinn makes it to dallas’s #9 pick look for dominik to try and move up. i think one way or another he’ll be trying to move up 3 or 4 spots to make sure atlanta and new orleans dont get a chance to leap frog them and grab the de the bucs want.

  14. McBuc Says:

    Yep Tom 2.2 would have cut Payten Manning for being a bust.

  15. lakeland bob Says:

    Hey Joe-how about a article about Eric’s man Brandon Marshall.With all the love being showered on Talib,I think Marshall should receive his kudos.

  16. aldo Says:

    i wonder why no one has mentioned Aldon Smith as a possible buccaneer??? since Dom and Rah took control the 2 first rounders has come from the Big 12 AND as a Junior from college…. i think Aldon Smith would be HUUUUUUGE for us

  17. Achetti813 Says:

    Aldon would be a big hit. Premier pass rusher that has a frame to add even more size at 6-3. played some DT on 3rd downs in college purely because of his explosive ability. Only downside is he might not be a big producer early

  18. Joe Says:

    lakeland bob:

    Joe was against getting Marshall from Day 1. Joe’s not a guy to rub people’s noses in the dirt.

  19. BamBamBuc Says:

    Ha… If eric had his way we’d be the best darned team in the NFL that could field a starting lineup due to suspensions….

  20. Pete Dutcher Says:

    It’s a good point, Joe, but also consider the fact that Keith Millard did not have any time to figure out what he has in his players. Its the off season and there have been no OTAs or Minicamps since he was hired.

    There is another factor though, that supports your theory.

    What if Keith Millard thinks there is a guy deeper in the draft that can be exactly what he wants? If that’s the case, there is no need to spend the pick in the first round on a DE.

  21. Pete Dutcher Says:

    (woot! I can post again!)

  22. Pete Dutcher Says:

    @lakeland bob
    You make a good point. But that’s a slightly different situation too. Marshall and his wife were having an arguement at home and she picked up a knife and used it on him. In that case, Marshall my have been arguing (which there are no laws against), but it was his wife who broke the law and assaulted him.

    At least that’s my perception of what happened. I haven’t really read up on what happened other than glancing over a story on PFT.

  23. Pete Dutcher Says:

    As to who they will pick…I have made my own prediction on my site at

    I predicted DE Ryan Kerrigan…it’s also slightly possible he could drop to the second round…but all the way to the Bucs? Not so sure.

    Given the point where the Bucs pick and the DEs that will likely still be on the board at that point, I think he’s a solid choice.

  24. Achetti813 Says:

    Pete i think your analysis of Aldon is a little out there by comparing him to gaines. People fail to remember Gaines was 25 when he was drafted almost like a man among boys in college playing people he was 5 years older than. Aldon has thicker frame, 22, and excellent use of hands

  25. Capt.Tim Says:

    Pete- I’m sure you are on Marshal’s side. The way you’ve defended hood trash Talib! I think if they caught Marshal and Talib cutting orphan’s throats on christmas morning, you’d have some kinda justification.

    Like your post a lot better when you are talking football, not morality, where apparently any trash able to play the game gets a free pass.

  26. Pete Dutcher Says:

    If you mean I will believe in a persons innocence until proven guilty. I also believe that once a person is proven guilty, that person needs to be held accountable for their actions.

    As I said, I don’t know enough about Marshall’s situation to even talk much about it. If you are ever on trial, who would you rather have on the jury…someone who has already decided or someone who will wait to hear the facts before deciding?

    The simple fact that you cannot understand this mystifies me. Our country is built upon solid princibles that have stood the test of time. One of those princibles is Innocence until Proven Guilty.

    If Talib, Marshall or whoever is proven guilty, then I’m happy to see them held accountable.

    Perhaps. I’ll be the first to admit I don’t know everything about every player. Mine is but an opinion. If Aldon can build a decent career, more power to him. But I made my prediction and I’ll have to stick with it now 🙂

  27. Funky Munkey Says:

    We need to draft a solid players who you know (barring injury) will be a success. Aldon is a potential player. If you look at the good drafting teams. They don’t go for potential. If we trade up I hope it is only for Robert Quinn. I personally like the idea of trading down if the players they want are gone. Extra draft picks always help.

    And this Jimmy Smith stuff. Dude hasn’t been in trouble in 4 years, but he is being associated with Talib. Talib was an obivious character concern coming out of college. Just another one of Gruden’s great moves in the draft. Smith can play and is on the talent level with Patrick Peterson. We need top CB’s if Talib is gone and Rhonde is not getting younger. It is nonsense to hear this dude being bashed and compared to dumbass Talib!!