Winning 11 In 2011 Will Be Historic Challenge

January 18th, 2011

The Bucs race to 10 was so improbable, Joe, sober, actually thought he had a shot at Rachel Watson.

[Post intermission: Joe has learned Rachel now goes by the legal name of “Rachel Clark” and sports a monstrous piece of ice on her hand. Sigh!]

The Bucs had their biggest turnaround in franchise history and became only the 15th team in the last 20 years to post such a turnaround.

History suggests a let down next year, documents eye-RAH! Kaufman of the Tampa Tribune.

The Bucs are one of only 15 teams since 1990 to improve by at least seven wins from the previous season. Out of that group, only the 1997 New York Jets managed to increase their win total again the next season, so Tampa Bay players and coaches will be dealing with a daunting legacy in 2011.

The other 14 clubs all went backward by varying degrees after their big surge and teams such as the 2006 Ravens, 2001 Bears and 1998 Falcons fell by at least eight wins in the season after their huge jump.

One reason the Bucs were able to do a virtual 180 from the 2009 dreadful season was taking advantage of the abysmal NFC West. That was a virtual lock of three wins right there.

The Bucs have a tougher schedule next year. So winning 10 or even 11 this season — provided there is a 2011 season — will be a formidable challenge.

The positive way to look at this would be the Bucs should learn from their choke jobs against the Dixie Chicks (twice) and the Lions. Throw in the fact that all the injured players should be healthy, if there is a season, 10 wins may not be out of the question.

34 Responses to “Winning 11 In 2011 Will Be Historic Challenge”

  1. Brad Says:

    Thanks Ira. We can always count on you to get us pumped up for the upcoming season.

  2. d-money Says:

    And we all know that what happened in the past with other teams that have no relation whatsoever to the Bucs is an exact indicator of what will happen with the Bucs in the future.

    The fact is this is more negative crap from Ira. What happened in the past has absolutely no bearing on what the Bucs will do next season.

    Guess what Ira? Until last season the Bucs had never gone from 3 wins to 10 wins in one season. By your stupid lazy logic they shouldn’t even have played the games because it had never been done in the past.

    I’ve never wiped my a$$ with the Tampa Tribune sports section but that doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen. It’s probably the only thing that rag is good for.

  3. Joe Says:

    When has accuracy been perceived as “negative?” 🙁

  4. d-money Says:

    Joe,

    Its not acurate to suggest that because something happened in the past it is an indicatior of what will happen in the future.

    Past events have ZERO bearing on what will happen in the future.

    How were those teams made up? How many players were lost to free agency? What were the other factors that led to them having a let down.

    Its lazy to say that because this happened to team A then this will happen to team B. Without looking at the reasons the teams in question had the let down.

  5. d-money Says:

    ….And also i just don’t like Ira.

  6. nick Says:

    looks like the local media is off to a good start in deflating hopes. do they get some kind of bonus for tickets unsold?

  7. Joe Says:

    d-money:

    Its not acurate to suggest that because something happened in the past it is an indicatior of what will happen in the future.

    Past events have ZERO bearing on what will happen in the future.

    Since Joe has a history degree, he fundamentally if not wholly disagrees with that statement.

    “Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.”

    If eye-RAH! was wrong, then any team which improved greatly once season, would win the Super Bowl the next season.

    Of course nothing is absolute. But you judge the future by what what has happened in the past. As detailed, eye-RAH!’s numbers don’t preclude a 12-win season and an 11-game season simply wouldn’t be a smart bet.

  8. Uwantfrieswidat Says:

    As soon as the word Ira was mentioned, my autocensor kicked the whole thing out.

  9. nick Says:

    Its January 18 and we have our first article by the local media on how difficult next season will be and how we may take a step back. I will start counting the days until the first article about the young players and the bright future, I won’t hold my breath

  10. Joe Says:

    I will start counting the days until the first article about the young players and the bright future, I won’t hold my breath.

    You mean you haven’t read those yet??? Joe could have sworn he’s already read dozens of such articles.

  11. Teddy Says:

    One thing working in the Bucs favor is that, even though they had a 7-game improvement and posted a ten-win season, they still have a third-place schedule. I’d be dollars-to-donuts that most of those previous 15 teams Ira mentioned (such as the Dolphins a couple of years ago) probably had to face a 1st or 2nd place sched the next year.

    Frankly, I don’t think the Bucs sched next year looks all that daunting. Other than the divisional opponents, they face:

    Bears, Lions, Colts, Texans, Cowboys at home
    Packers, Vikings, Jaguars, Titans, 49ers away

    I’d expect them to play the Colts tough at home, and the Packers away will be a tough one, but I’d argue that these two aren’t any more daunting than when they played Pittsburgh at home and Baltimore on the road this season.

    The Cowboys don’t scare me, and neither do the Bears or anyone else on that list. Most are in some form of rebuilding, and it could be argued that they’re probably behind the Bucs in that process.

  12. bucfanjeff Says:

    We may or may not get 10 wins. A ‘hard schedule’ is really only determined once the season is over because you just don’t know whom will be good. Prior to playing the season a ‘hard schedule’ is just a guess. The bottom line is we need to make the playoffs, whether that’s 8 wins or 14 – just get there, and see what happens.

  13. nick Says:

    You mean you haven’t read those yet??? Joe could have sworn he’s already read dozens of such articles.

    =======================

    Since the last game of the year? I assume you’re kidding. If not, why are they not on JBF

  14. Teddy Says:

    Oh, and I forgot to congratulate the former Ms. Watson on her nuptuals.

  15. Matt Says:

    He is absolutely correct.

    In fact, I think it is very likely that we could field a better team next year and still struggle to get to 10 wins.

    We really need our defense, especially McCoy and Price on the DL, to step it up a notch next year, or regression is definitely possible.

  16. Joe Says:

    Nick:

    Since the last game of the year? I assume you’re kidding. If not, why are they not on JBF

    Dunno, maybe because Joe’s not a cheerleader? Joe already knows the Bucs have a good young team. What’s the point of writing the same post six times a day? Joe’s trying to attract eyeballs, not bore people.

  17. Joe Says:

    In fact, I think it is very likely that we could field a better team next year and still struggle to get to 10 wins.

    Valid point Matt! The Bucs could actually be better, yet not win 10 games.

  18. McBuc Says:

    Teddy, I agree that the schedule does not look super tough. The only difference on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th schedule is two games. We also saw the first place schedule of the Saints end up being an easier schedule than the Bucs 4th place.

    I get ira’s point. He also does not break down the decline of each of those teams. If the Bucs win 9 games next year they will fall into the decline column, but if they make the paly offs with nine wins, we are all happier than this year’s 10 wins right. We also have to take the bad past references with the good ones. Everyone loves the fact that the Bucs are the first team since the merger to win with 10 starting rookies.

  19. d-money Says:

    Joe,

    You are right that you can learn things from the past. But just because something happened before doesn’t mean that it will happen again.

    My point is that without looking at the REASONS that those teams had a let down you cant’t suggest that the Bucs or any team will do the same.

    Ira jumps to the conclusion that because those other teams had a let down then that means that the Bucs are likely to. Without even looking at what things, if any, those teams have in common with the Bucs other than their records.

  20. nick Says:

    Joe, my beef is not with you, just the local media, newspaper, radio, all of it. They can give their opinion but all I ask is they sprinkle in a few positive outlooks, maybe before the first article they write is a negative one. And they wonder why fans have trouble believing in the team. Attitude is contagious. Like I said before, its not even Championship Sunday and we have an article about how the team may not be as good next year. (I know you didn’t write it)

  21. Joe Says:

    d-money:

    Correct, there are no absolutes. But NFL history suggests, as eye-RAH! details, it will be a struggle for the Bucs to win 11 in 2011.

    Joe’s not saying it won’t happen and neither is eye-RAH!. But the evidence is overwhelming to the contrary.

    As Matt explained earlier in this thread, the Bucs very well could be a better team next season, and not win 10 games.

  22. Mrs Clark Says:

    Oh Joe, you know I only have eyes for you and your big patch of male pattern baldness. 😉

  23. Capt.Tim Says:

    I’m with D-money on this one. Football is not as apt to repeat history, due to the extreme impact of variables. If the entire team stays healthy all season- we should win 12-14. If Josh Freeman gets hurt in camp and doesn’t play, 8-8 would have most fans amazed. You heard it in the playoffs this weekend” the O – line has played together every game this season!” . That is a much bigger factor than Historical prescidence. Christians and Muslums have been fighting for 7 centuries- yeah, they’ll still be fighting this whole decade. Josh Freeman blowing out a knee( god forbid!!) isn’t gonna affect that.that one act would ruin our hopes. D-Money is right, it’s just lazy local media showing their bitterness. Positive post? Here on JoeBuc, and one segment on the disgusting BSPN- and thats really sad!

  24. McBuc Says:

    I bet it is hard for any NFL team to have a 10 – 6 season followed by an 11 – 5 season regardless of the turn around number.

  25. Joe Says:

    Rachel, eerrr, Mrs Clark:

    Oh Joe, you know I only have eyes for you and your big patch of male pattern baldness.

    Joe will have you know he has a full head of hair! 🙂

  26. Capt.Tim Says:

    Joe- sorry bout that buddy. But there are plenty of fish in the sea, and The Bay. Ms.Watson/Clarke will probably regret missing out on her obsessed admirer later on !

  27. RustyRhino Says:

    Everyone thinks and acts like it is so easy to win 10 games in the NFL regardless of your previous season record. Maybe I am missing the historical record of how winning 10-12 games is such an easy thing to do. Every year teams rise from the depths to win more games than the reporters and fans thought was possible. It is what it is..
    The way we have historically seen from our own south division last placed teams rise to the top should keep our predictions to a minimum.

  28. Capt.Tim Says:

    The stabilizing factor is a franchise QB. The Patriots, Colts, Packers, etc have no problem stacking winning season after winning season. The NFC south “Worst to first” was due to a lack of a dominate QB. Bree’s started stabilizing the south, Freeman and that Ice kid should finish it

  29. tha truth is... Says:

    11 in 2011. History is bound 2 change and it begins here.

    P.S. Its obvious Ira is a Raheem hater. No matter what positive happens he’ll always find a negative fiction or not.

    @ Joe
    Without your Bucs coverage I swear I wouldn’t kno where 2 look for great written articles. Tha Tribune should print str8 from your your work instead of tha garbage they have ova there. I no longer look 2 them 4 any Bucs news. Keep up tha good work

  30. BigMacAttack Says:

    And I feel, and I feel when the dogs begin to smell her
    Will she smell alone?

    Nothing in the world like the scent of a woman. Nothing.

    Lightning at home tonight. My first attended game of the season. Can’t wait, I think I’ll have a beer, not driving, haha.

    10 wins is tough. When Raheem wins 14 next year people will really be surprised.

    Thank God the Jets didn’t draft Josh Freeman. I can only imagine. Sancheez sux.

  31. McBuc Says:

    Ira was not all negative in this article. He also said…

    “With quarterback Josh Freeman leading the NFL’s youngest club, all signs point to continued progress for the Buccaneers, who tied a franchise record by going 6-2 on the road.”

    He is pointing out a stat, like you hear all the time during a game. Remember “The Saints are set to kick off, oh and by the way, the Bucs have not returned a kick in 1032 times”. It has become part of the game. He also pointed that other teams did not acheive the same record, but still had winning records.

  32. SkookumSmitty Says:

    Joe said: “Joe will have you know he has a full head of hair!”

    Unfortunately, it is all on his BACK.

  33. Joe Says:

    tha truth is…:

    Tha Tribune should print str8 from your your work instead of tha garbage they have ova there.

    Joe’s going to stick up for his good friends at The News Center. They produce quality work. If they didn’t, Joe wouldn’t highlight their articles.

  34. eric Says:

    One thing Jon Gruden never did in Tampa or Oakland. Go three straight seasons without winning a Division Title.

    Time for Mr. Morris to produce some hardware, and the boy genius GM. As it turned out the NFC South was not strong in the playoffs.

    Division Title ought to be a piece of cake, right?