Numbers Claim Stylez G. White Is A Stud
May 31st, 2010
Joe just isn’t about football. He likes other sports too, including baseball.
For some reason, likely because of fantasy baseball, it seems the calculator crowd has tried to take over the game of baseball. In, oh, the past decade, all sorts of statistical nonsense has been invented largely because some clown who got bored at home and decided to play with an Excel spreadsheet and invent acronyms like OPN and WISP.
(In baseball, one statistic that greatly concerns Joe is AWLB: At-bats While in Line for Beer.)
And it’s godawful boring. There’s a reason why numbers geek Bill James is often credited with this phenomenon during his days as an overnight security guard. That factual sentence is damning on many levels.
As a result, some have tried to do this with football. Thankfully, this trend has not had great success. One such proponent of football statistical jibberish is something called ProFootballFocus.com.
Per the spreadsheeters there, Stylez White is an elite defensive end, so discovers Woody Cummings of the Tampa Tribune.
What aided White is the fact that PFF looks at more than just sacks. Though it does so at a fraction of the value given to a sack, it also takes into account quarterback hits and pressures in accumulating its Pass Rushing Points total.
That total is then divided by the total number of regular defensive plays the player participated in during the regular season and is finally multiplied by 100 to get the Pass Rushing Productivity Rating.
In the final 2009 rankings, Dwight Freeney led all defensive ends with a 13.7 rating. He was followed by Robert Mathis (11.2), John Abraham (10.5), Leonard Little (10.2), Ray Edwards (10.1) and White (10.0).
Look, Joe doesn’t need some formula to figure out White is a good defensive end. Does he get pressure on the quarterback? Check. Does he lead the team in sacks? Check. That’s all.
Joe just prays he doesn’t read someday from some spreadsheeter about a football player’s OBGYN.
May 31st, 2010 at 5:15 pm
This formula is obviously flawed.
If any wants to tell me that Stylez is better than Jared Allen , Will Smith , Brian Orakpo , Demarcus Ware , Mario Williams , among others …i have a bridge to sell you….
May 31st, 2010 at 5:33 pm
Stylez is not elite, but he is good.
07- 8 sacks
08- 6 sacks
09- 6 sacks
When you have Sims and Hovan as your interior lineman, those are actually pretty good stats. I’m sure Stylez will have a better season with an improved D-line. He’s got talent.
May 31st, 2010 at 6:45 pm
Joe,
Usually LOVE the posts, but you sound like a neophobe with this. Advanced statistics have added a TON to the understanding of baseball. Just ask two of the biggest disciples of these statistics: Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman.
Baseball no doubt lends itself more easily to this type of analysis since it is such a statistics rich game, but every step the NFL takes in this direction is a good step. These types of statistics help fans and managers quantify the feeling that “this player is better than his statistics indicate.” Such a feeling is often correct, but merely expresses the inadequacy of traditional statistics. You might argue with the constitution of any particular statistic, but don’t eschew the whole advanced statistics movement…
May 31st, 2010 at 7:27 pm
How bout you jump off that bridge?
May 31st, 2010 at 7:31 pm
Here’s the thing, Stylez could have easily had at least 3 more sacks last year if he had some help inside. And I’m not just throwing numbers out there, I’m telling you there are three specific plays going back through my notes where he beat his guy clean around the corner but the qb just slid up in the pocket straight ahead. Honestly I said in the preseason that he should start over Gaines may he RIP, because he was the better and by far more consistent pass rusher play in and play out. Now we HOPE with the rookies and Miller that we will have better push inside but even if not I still predict double digit sacks for White barring injury. His technique is just that good and I expect that games will be closer this year so he will get a lot more opportunities to sack the QB. You can quote me on that and if I’m wrong you can throw it back in my face all year but I don’t think I will be.
May 31st, 2010 at 7:39 pm
I wonder how they get to 8 sacks when the NFL says he had 6.5. Do they count half-sacks as full sacks?
I have some specific problems with how PFF approaches its stat-gathering, but not with stats in general. And other stat sites – inlcuding Football Outsiders – have said that Stylez got a lot of pressures that didn’t result in sacks as well.
May 31st, 2010 at 8:07 pm
If he does get to 10 sacks, I suppose some credit would have to go to the Gruden boys, for giving him a shot from the Orlando Predators.
Obviously, the man has got a never say die approach and it would be great for him to take it to the next level.
And the dude once sacked Byron Leftwich twice!
That alone ought to give hime some cred.
May 31st, 2010 at 8:25 pm
He did well with the snaps he got.
May 31st, 2010 at 9:19 pm
@sqw94 Thank you for being the voice of reason. White is going to be a force next year now that (hopefully) he has more than just a couple of stiffs on the inside.
May 31st, 2010 at 9:21 pm
@Larry Yes, and that is actually part of the problem. Stylez had some huge stamina issues last year. I really hope he worked on this conditioning this offseason (and it sounds like he has) so he can get a couple hundred more snaps this year.
May 31st, 2010 at 10:55 pm
Seems like “hits” and “pressures” are a bit subjective.
Would credit be given for either if the QB stands in the pocket forever but eventually somebody pressures him?
What if the QB throws a 60 yard bomb for a TD, but the DE hits him a split second after the throw?
Heck, even a sack can be misleading, if the coverage is good, and the QB just runs out of time or holds the ball too long. Not every sack is necessarily a good play by the DE.
May 31st, 2010 at 11:00 pm
…which takes us back to wins and losses being all that matter. And the Bucs have 3 Ws in their last 20. Stylez getting 10 sacks isn’t going to add to the win column. It’s going to take a total team effort and some decent coaching for an entire season
May 31st, 2010 at 11:17 pm
Come to think of it that “good coverage” example probably doesn’t apply to the bucs very often, at least not recently.
May 31st, 2010 at 11:40 pm
Now, I love statistics as much as the next guy, but statistics are very often used to validate an individuals point of view, not necessarily the reality.
For example, take Barrett Ruud. There are those that love Ruud and think he’s a very good middle linebacker and will prove their point by stating that he had xx tackles last year. NFL.com says 142, tied for 2nd best in the NFL. Others, that think Ruud doesn’t make enough “splash plays” will state that he only had one FF and one INT, so the tackles don’t matter. Others will say that most of those tackles were “downfield” and he got “dragged” a few yards on each tackle and will say he only had xx TFL. They are subjective, based upon the point of view you wish to portray. Rarely are they taken at face value, or as a “whole” to show a players “body of work”.
It works the same way with team stats. I’ve heard the stat thrown out that the Bucs dropped in every statistical category this past season, but they have not pointed out that the exact same thing happened after the 2005 season, in 2006. Every offense and defensive statistical category dropped in 2006, but that wouldn’t prove the point they are trying to make about this current regime, so it is conveniently left out.
See how statistics are skewed to make an individuals point? More statistics just means more ways to “make your point”.
June 1st, 2010 at 4:03 am
whita can ball!! thats all were saying easily a top ten DE if he gets his conditioning in remember i think last year he got injured on a motorcycle and wasnt even a lock to make the team and then we traded dead weight and he was all of a sudden a starter, very good technique and quick burst off line.
June 1st, 2010 at 7:40 am
HAHAHA. Who am I ? Am I BigmacAttack or am I Jimbuc. You be the judge.
June 1st, 2010 at 8:31 am
@Eric: I’m not sure about ProFootballFocus, but I know Football Outsiders differentiates between coverage sacks, QBs sacking themselves (by scrambling into the rush), and QB hits/pressures.
June 1st, 2010 at 9:23 am
Radio Mushmouth Says:
May 31st, 2010 at 5:15 pm
This formula is obviously flawed.
If any wants to tell me that Stylez is better than Jared Allen , Will Smith , Brian Orakpo , Demarcus Ware , Mario Williams , among others …i have a bridge to sell you….
__________________________
You are not very bright, are you? You have any idea how much supporting cast plays a part in every player’s success in the NFL?
June 1st, 2010 at 11:01 am
The Ruud argument is exactly my point. Watching the actual games last year, you know that Ruud’s numbers were not as stout as they may seem at first glance. Say what you want about Ruud’s year (and whether the DT play was to blame), but I think it is not controversial to say that those tackle numbers paint at least a slightly rosy picture for those who didn’t watch the games. But a statistic that took into account things like yards gained on plays Ruud made a tackle, defensive line play (which could be controlled for using stats for those interior guys), etc. would allow you to develop a rating for a middle linebacker that would be a more useful metric than just tackles. With such a metric, you could begin to compare players on an even playing field.
June 1st, 2010 at 11:38 am
stats are the least subjective ‘facts’ that we can use to determine how productive a player is…
If you look at the 4-3 DE’s stats on PFF, you’ll see where where SW is proficient and where some of the previously mentioned DE’s we not as proficient…
It’s a reference point only, but a reference point. Everyone sees a play differently – too subjective for my tastes.
June 1st, 2010 at 12:03 pm
When Raheem Morris trots out on the field, player stats are completely degraded and compromised.
Id say add about 20% to everybodies totals, in the interest of fairness.
The RSQ “Raheem Sucks Quotion” has to be including in the calculations.
June 1st, 2010 at 1:36 pm
Jonny , you are seriously going to try and make the case that Stylez is better than Jared Allen , and then claim I”M not that bright??
BWAHAHAHAHA.
Tell me genius , how much supporting cast did Jared Allen have in Kansas City ?
None?? That’s what I thought , now take a hike ya piss-ant .