There are smart people, and then there are the guys who do all the college level mathematics on AdvancedNFLStats.com. Geniuses to be sure.

For those who haven’t read their statistical reports, the motto over there is simply, The Numbers Don’t Lie.

Advanced NFL Stats analyzed the numbers on Raheem The Dream’s decision to kick a field goal on 4th-and-goal from the 4 yard line with 4:30 left against Washington.

No surprise. The math gods are frowning on the Bucs head coach.

Kicking the field goal gave the Bucs a 0.19 Win Probability (WP). Attempting the TD would net a 0.29 WP on balance. Morris’ decision basically cut his chances of winning by a third.  Sure, the particular “flow” and match-ups of the game are factors, but those considerations are usually overblown. Besides, if the game is close enough for it to matter, then the two teams are probably fairly equal, at least for that day. 

Joe already hammered The Dream for his decision on Sunday afternoon. So Joe won’t go there again.