2026 Baker Mayfield Is Not Dependable On Passing Downs
November 12th, 2026
Bottomed out.
Joe is going to defend Baker Mayfield a little here.
Mayfield, with maybe one or two exceptions, has not had a good game for the Bucs in over a calendar year. He’s been awful. But Mayfield has a bit of an excuse this year. Bucs offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is inept and Joe has a hunch he will bring the entire coaching staff down with him in two months.
So, when a quarterback is handed chickens(p)it, he’s got to try to make a little chicken salad.
The stats say Mayfield has been unable to do so.
Joe is not an “EPA” guy when it comes to football stats. Yes, Joe knows it’s all the rage with the stat geeks. So why is Joe averse? It uses the word “expected.” To which Joe always responds, “Whose expectations?”
Slap the words “expected” or “adjusted” into a stat description and Joe’s mind immediately clicks to a new subject. That’s playing hopscotch with numbers and Joe does not trust folks who traffic in such an industry.
(Joe had a high school teacher once say someone can always twist numbers to prove a point. Joe never, ever forgot that lesson.)
In modern football, sneering at “EPA” is frowned upon as if someone is a heretic. So, Joe will try to be open-minded and will be mainstream here..
If you value “EPA,” then there is no quarterback this season worse than Mayfield on expected passing downs. He’s horrendous.
As much as Joe likes Mayfield’s intangibles and wants to give Mayfield the benefit of the doubt being saddled with Robinson, there is no excuse for being No. 32. None. Zero.
Lousy Lovie Smith could be the guy’s offensive coordinator and if he’s worth a s(p)it, he won’t be ranked No. 32.
With performances like that, Mayfield’s going to force the Bucs to draft a quarterback next spring. Obscene contract or no contract.
How quarterbacks have performed in expected pass situations: pic.twitter.com/HcRE3aPfbu
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) November 11, 2026
November 12th, 2026 at 7:08 am
Sad times. A full rebuild will not be fun
November 12th, 2026 at 7:12 am
Baker wird beweisen, dass Ihr alle falsch liegt.
November 12th, 2026 at 7:20 am
“I love Baker’s intangables”
This is like saying my girlfriend is an obese troglodyte but she bakes delicious pies…
Please give us a break with this “moxy and grit” BS.
November 12th, 2026 at 7:24 am
crazy. even back in 2023 I told my brother I liked his pocket presence and how he seemed confident even under pressure. ever since his hot streak ended last year that vanished. it’s beyond the injury, maybe something / someone got to his head? but he seems frantic, constantly. like a focus drop or something, and the play just falls apart. hope he can turn it around. I like the guy.
November 12th, 2026 at 7:25 am
It seems that Mayfield locks in on certain receivers and has difficulty reading the Defense and going through progressions- from the tape he absolutely has open receivers on several plays, but just doesn’t see them or doesn’t want to see them because he’s locked in on another.
Another issue is his accuracy and that’s probably related to poor footwork (happy feet)
November 12th, 2026 at 7:30 am
Throw to Godwin, he was a 3rd down machine with Coen. Chris is a NFL leader in separation, target him.
November 12th, 2026 at 7:35 am
Joe … ‘With performances like that, Mayfield’s going to force the Bucs to draft a quarterback next spring. Obscene contract or no contract.’
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes (seven’s my lucky number).
Please Please Please Please Please Please Please
Bucs are lacking a true franchise QB right now, one who can elevate this team to greatness. Our defense is playing solid football (at least ‘good enough’ to make us a threat in the playoffs). Same with our Special Teams. That just leaves our Not-So-Special Offense; fix that and we’ve got a true contender.
Our OLine has talent as we know, it’s just hasn’t been ‘playing up to its potential’. Our RBs have talent as we’ve seen; they’re still ranked #1 in Rushing Yardage & Rushing TDs. Our TEs are, OK, ‘serviceable’ but that’s relatively easy to fix. Our WRs are a mixed bag IMO; several have excellent ‘talent’ but haven’t been performing like that, so that area needs work.
And then there’s our QB, Dr Jekyl & Mr Hide. You might have tried to “defend Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield a little” in this article Joe, but it fell WAAAAY SHORT. Actually you threw him under the bus then ran over him a half dozen times or so.
2027’s draft is supposed to have a plethora of very good QBs. Bucs need to ‘do what they have to do’ to get one. Mayfield isn’t the answer because of his inconsistency. But he could make an acceptable ‘bridge’ for 1 year.
November 12th, 2026 at 7:35 am
You would think Baker would be embarrassed for stealing from the Glazers and the fans. Is he another guy who forgets how to play once he gets the big money?
November 12th, 2026 at 7:35 am
So we’re drafting a QB 1st Rd? Also glad to see where 165M went… still can’t wrap my normal job holding head around 165M 🤷…
November 12th, 2026 at 7:41 am
Baker is lower than 32nd in some of these metrics. Look at the names he’s below, some of those guys are backup QBs.
You’re going to need a little more to bail him out on this, Joe.
November 12th, 2026 at 7:42 am
Alanbucsfan … ‘Another issue is his accuracy and that’s probably related to poor footwork (happy feet)’.
However Alan, surely you’ll concede that Baker is a very well- paid dancer. And I’m confident it’s not just his feet that are happy about that.
November 12th, 2026 at 7:42 am
His clock has changed. Under Coen it was one of fastest in the league. His release time was somewhere in the mid 2 second range as I recall. In one game this year the announcers were saying it was 3.14 seconds.
Not defending his hare brained INTs, but I think he really struggles to find WRs open. On top of that , why even throw to Hurst even if he is open, he is going to drop the ball. Baker has been bad, but both EE and TH are total trash. Then there is an OC that is so predictable it’s not funny. Defenses know exactly what the Bucs are going to do, especially if the Bucs constantly run on first and second down.
November 12th, 2026 at 7:53 am
I would love to know whose bright idea it was to sign Baker before the season to that ridiculous contract. I would like to think it was the Glazers. If it was Jason, that’s a fireable offense.
November 12th, 2026 at 7:54 am
Captain Obvious I mean Joe is that you? Ray Charles can see Baker is horrible and Stevie Wonder agrees.
November 12th, 2026 at 8:02 am
I guess I’m one of the few Baker fans left on JBF. He’s been terrible no doubt! The issue I have is more about game planning and how it effects any QB. Since they hired Robinson, it’s been obvious the Bucs only want to pass when they absolutely have to. This isn’t a Mayfield thing, it’s a Bowles/Robinson thing. They didn’t hire the OC saying hey we have a crappy QB we need to run the ball every play. They brought him in to play a ball control offense which includes throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage. Point being they brought in a new special team’s coach and look at the results. Very hard for me to believe a QB can go from 46 TDs and 10 Int’s to what we are seeing now. I could be wrong since I’m still a fan, but I’ll bet a good offensive coach could turn this roster around.
November 12th, 2026 at 8:06 am
If anyone is still interested in the reason Evans left now, we have the answer. He took one look at the offense and said no freaking way.
November 12th, 2026 at 8:13 am
“Marine Buc Says:
November 12th, 2026 at 7:20 am
“I love Baker’s intangibles”
This is like saying my girlfriend is an obese troglodyte but she bakes delicious pies…”
Troglodyte! A great Jimmy Castor Bunch reference. Well done, Marine.
November 12th, 2026 at 8:16 am
At first I kind of disagreed w Joe that the problem is the offensive coordinator totally. But on 2nd thought i realized even Otten has become terrible. I don’t understand how all decent parts of our passing game aren’t effective. Just a very uncomfortable QB with the play calling.