Bucs’ Season-Win Projection “Too Low”
August 31st, 2026
Again?
The Joes are split when it comes to guessing the Bucs’ record this fall.
Neither Joe is locked in yet. Their season-win predections will be shared in an “Ira Kaufman Podcast” of the near future.
Over at The Athletic, Austin Mock thinks the Bucs, for the second time in KitKat-eating Bucs coach Todd Bowles’ tenure, will win the NFC South landfill with a losing record.
(Unlike many who will howl for Bowles’ head if that happens, Joe has a hunch that won’t be enough to send Bowles packing. A division winner automatically hosts a home playoff game and owners tend to like coaches who make them money.)
(Joe heard a stat over the weekend claiming since the Bucs won their last Super Bowl, NFC South teams together have won just 35 percent of their games against teams outside the division. Joe is not sure if that is accurate or not.)
Mock has the Bucs winning eight games this year. And his colleague at The Athletic, Dan Pompei, thinks that estimate is too low.
The Bucs are capable of winning more games than they did one year ago, when they were 8-9 in a season when everything that could have gone wrong did. The Bucs won 10 games two years ago and are capable of a similar win total in 2026, especially considering the mediocre state of the NFC South. For them to exceed eight wins, they will need impact from rookie edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., effective game planning and play calling from new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and better health. Having a motivated and slightly perturbed Baker Mayfield won’t hurt.
One reason Mock thinks the Bucs will have a losing record is because the Bucs are too old. Joe’s not sure about that. The offensive line is young. The running backs are young. The receivers are certainly young aside from Chris Godwin.
Defensive tackle, yeah, the Bucs are old. But not at outside linebacker and not at safety and surely not at corner.
Quarterback? Joe guesses you could say Baker Mayfield might be old, as it is never good to have a quarterback who takes a beating with his style of play being on the wrong side of 30.
Joe believes the Bucs will sink or swim based on the defense, specifically the corners. For the Bucs to have a really good season, the three rookies who are expected to start, Rueben Bain, Josiah Trotter and Keionte Scott, will have to play like vets and find ways to power through the rookie wall.
August 31st, 2026 at 5:15 am
Still confident this 2026 team can make it to a 10-7 record this season, mostly because I believe that the Bucs’ defense will do much better this year. Assuming that injuries are ‘manageable’, I think we can end up as a Top-10 defense.
It’s easy to understand though why so many believe that we’ll have a losing record. When I look back through Todd Bowles first 4 years here, 3 things jump out at me that aren’t very heartening:
1 – There’s a very narrow spread in each season’s record … 8-9 in 2022, 9-8 in 2023, 10-7 in 2024 then 8-9 again in 2025. That’s a fairly narrow spread over a 4-year period.
2 – Each season has contained one 6-game block that we’ve lost 5 games in. Losing 5-out-of-6 games in any 17-game season isn’t gonna give fans the warm-fuzzies about your capability to win the Super Bowl. But to do that same thing FOUR times in a row? Sounds like Webster’s definition of a slow learner.
3 – Each season has also contained at least ONE 3-game losing streak. Teams with the better records appear to be able to stop losing streaks at no more than 2 losses in a row. The only recent year we were able to stop the bleeding at no more than 2 losses in a row was 2021 when we finished 13-4. You’d have to go all the way back to 2010 when we finished 10-6 to find the next instance of no more than 2 losses in a row.
August 31st, 2026 at 5:26 am
Well, I would have liked Jim Schwartz to have been the DC and TB as the HC this upcoming season or at least Jim Schwartz as a consultant on this team, but that is not possible now
So, yeah, I think this season is up to the defense and really up to Baker Mayfield and where he can lead the 2026 / 27 Buccaneers!
Really my Crystal Ball is cloudy and not even Master Yoda can discern the future!!! We will just have to play the games!
August 31st, 2026 at 5:26 am
The fact is right now we’re 0-0. Clean slate is the best time to prove em all wrong.
August 31st, 2026 at 5:36 am
Thank goodness the NFC South is a total dumpster fire.
That will help out the Bucs this season…
7-10 and 50/50 we still win this mess of a division.
August 31st, 2026 at 5:48 am
I think this team goes as far as the play calling as in last few years!
August 31st, 2026 at 6:17 am
Agreed… injuries, play calling and secondary play will decide our fate… sadly I’m not too confident any of those 3 will fall in our favor
August 31st, 2026 at 6:18 am
Baker being “slightly perturbed” is NFL analytics for: somebody’s about to get head-butted after a touchdown. Eight wins could still win the South, which is why calling this a division race feels unnecessarily respectful. If rookie-wall concerns are the biggest problem by December, I’ll personally bring Bain, Trotter and Scott a ladder.
August 31st, 2026 at 6:27 am
Hobbled by Bowels
August 31st, 2026 at 6:34 am
Well, the Bucs have done far better than the NFC South as a whole. Their record from 2021-2025 is 29-26 (.527) vs. non-divisional opponents.
Take out their best season, 2021, and they were only 20-24 (.370) against non-divisional opponents.
Baker’s Bucs teams are 16-17 (.485) vs. non-divisional opponents.
August 31st, 2026 at 6:39 am
The clock is ticking. 13 days till the season kicks off. Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in the league. We got rid of last year’s poison. I don’t think anyone here has a clue as to how high our ceiling is this year.
I’m not counting ME. I’m just saying we can beat anyone on the schedule. And if anyone does beat us, I don’t think they could beat us again.
Licht and Bowles and Baker are on a mission this year. Our defensive and offensive lines and playmakers are fixing to go off. I think we’re gonna win the Super Bowl this year.
August 31st, 2026 at 6:39 am
Tell everyone to sleep 12 hours a day for these 2 weeks. It’s gonna be a long season, and only 1 bye (plus extra time off after the Dallas game). If we beat Dallas and Cincy early we could have a huge season. Really need to get the pass rush going early and consistently. That will make life much easier for the secondary.
August 31st, 2026 at 6:41 am
10-7 wins the South outright, 9-8 could lead to winning the division with a tie breaker and 8-9 not only sends you home for the holidays but for some, looking for a new home! Of course, the human factor always plays a contributing factor into any speculation about anything concerning the future!!!!
August 31st, 2026 at 6:43 am
NFC South was NOT the worst division in football last year.
Atlanta won 6 of their last 7 to end the year last season.
Panthers made the playoffs and are always tough for the Bucs.
Saints and Tyler Shough are trending up not down with a young coach.
NFC South will be much better this year watch and see.
August 31st, 2026 at 7:03 am
7-10 at best. Just look at the roster. 3 frail RBs. A QB that throws is body around. Injury riddled receivers. On and on and on.
August 31st, 2026 at 7:10 am
Here are those numbers you mused about earlier Joe.
Over the last five regular seasons (2021–2025), NFC South teams hold a cumulative record of 88 wins and 132 losses (a .400 win percentage) in games played against non-division opponents.
August 31st, 2026 at 7:12 am
I don’t expect the NFC South to be better, but I do expect the Bucs to be better. Having the ability to pass rush is hugely helpful to your chances of winning games.
August 31st, 2026 at 7:46 am
Is Marine Buc still running his mouth while being too scared to back up his 10 loss prediction?
What a total fake. Not even an entertaining troll.
Pony up dummy or shut your trap.
August 31st, 2026 at 7:50 am
Not to worries.
Todd will bring some wood this year. Opposing offenses have no where to hide. The scheme this year is his best yearly update to date.
We got this!
LFG!!!!!!!!!!!!
August 31st, 2026 at 7:51 am
Only reason for the low won total estimates is Todd Bowles. His peak is 10 something he might not even reach even if he had the 02 Buc defense
August 31st, 2026 at 7:51 am
Let’s see..the Bucs won 8 games last year with them playing ZERO games with their starting online. They won 8 games with Braswell and Reddick as edge rushers. They won 8 games with a terrible ST coach. They won 8 games with their starting LBers being a washed up LVD and Dennis.
Yeah give me the over on 8 wins. Easy $
August 31st, 2026 at 7:55 am
See no reason why can’t hit 10 or 11. ST’s cost us 2 LAST year, else we’d have hit 10, riddled as we were. We have essentially the same offense that killed the league just 2 years ago, AND our front 7 is magnitudes better. Injuries, esp to DB’s will be the big thing
August 31st, 2026 at 8:04 am
I’ve said this several times over the last couple of weeks, and I’ll keep saying it until I’m proven wrong.
The Bucs are either 8-9 or 9-8 under Todd Bowles. The man is allergic to both winning and losing records.
August 31st, 2026 at 8:09 am
Anytime you have fans excited that the division is trash and thats the only hope to make the playoffs let’s you know what type of team this is. Our HC and QB and roster scare NO ONE.
5-12 season loading. Buckle up!
August 31st, 2026 at 8:21 am
11wins and NFC Championship game!!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!
August 31st, 2026 at 8:23 am
Todd, AI is NOT your friend!!
August 31st, 2026 at 8:24 am
Bowles and DBs are the biggest problems. Also, hope Zac knows what he is doing, preseason offense was a dumpster fire. So I hope preseason wasn’t even close to what the offense will look like. I am thinking 10-7….
August 31st, 2026 at 8:28 am
@ Fan
I say 7 wins – you say 8 wins…
But somehow I am the “troll” here?
OK pal – sounds like logic wins again… LOL!
Wait until Morrison goes on IR, ZM continues to stink and Parrish struggles because he is our only(somewhat) legit CB.
Then there is Baker…
Oh brother.
August 31st, 2026 at 8:31 am
With the HC\DC we currently employ, it’s best to keep your expectations super low. Then you won’t be quite as disappointed.
I’m rounding down on my prediction. 2-15
There will be a couple teams willing to donate a W to the poorly coached Bucs.
A few things are guaranteed with Todd. Ineptitude, complacency, and an embrace of failure.
He’s a guru.
August 31st, 2026 at 8:36 am
If you folks truly believe that SMB is going to come in and save our beacon – I have a nice red bridge to sell you…
Meet me in SF.
August 31st, 2026 at 8:40 am
Our GM should be fired after this CB unit calamity…
I believe his plan was to draft a CB in round 1 until Bain fell to #15.
He couldn’t pass on Bain so he drafted a DB in round 4 because he wasn’t impressed with the CBs available in rounds 2-3.
No other explanation makes any sense to me.
My only question is – why didn’t our GM sign at least one decent vet CB this off-season?
Really?
I would fire his arse for this mess at CB…
August 31st, 2026 at 9:06 am
Considering JaMarr Chase has a hyperextended knee and has not practiced recently after that injury the Bucs CB’s may not be seeing Chase at full strength in game 1 which is certainly a positive.
August 31st, 2026 at 9:14 am
@ Todd
I agree.
However we will be facing Burrows game #1 – while he will be 100% healthy against the worst CB unit in the entire NFL…
I believe we will lose a close game on the road against a better coach and QB.
Cin – 21
TB – 17
August 31st, 2026 at 9:15 am
These people saying 7,8 wins… you do know nobody major is injured right now- right? This is a completely different team than last year. Half the defensive starters have been swapped out. The excellent O-line returns. And we have plenty of weapons on offense- Bucky and Gainwell (Steelers MvP) included…
August 31st, 2026 at 9:16 am
@ stpetematt
Is the NFL still a passing league?
Yes or No…
August 31st, 2026 at 9:17 am
If the Bucs only score 17 against the BENGALS lousy defense I will be concerned.
August 31st, 2026 at 9:18 am
Only somewhat. Our run game opens up the pass considerably. And Baker is an excellent QB.
August 31st, 2026 at 9:22 am
@ stpetematt
“Baker is an excellent QB”
OK. Let’s just put a pin in that for now. We will circle back around to that later.
You are hopeful that our injury prone O-line and below average RB unit will somehow now create the best running game in the NFL?
With a OC that was just fired from Atlanta for having the 24th ranked run offense in the NFL?
You sure bout DAT?
Help me make this more logical please…
August 31st, 2026 at 9:32 am
The Bucs are looking for rookie defense players to ball out this season. That’s a tall task from what we saw from last year’s defensive performance. The first half of the season will be growing pains, with growing into NFL players after the bye week. The Bucs should win their division. Getting to the the NFC championship game will go a long ways towards a Super Bowl season in 2027. Alot will depend on how healthy the Bucs are this year.
August 31st, 2026 at 9:37 am
Marine Buc. Don’t bother asking Floormatt to be logical when it comes to all things Buccaneers.
He’s the Emperor of the Pom Pom squad. Blindly believing that the same people responsible for last year’s Hindenburg style catastrophe will turn it around in 2026.
The cake eating contest never ends with that one.
August 31st, 2026 at 9:47 am
Those playoff revenue checks are no joke for owners. With most of your expenses paid for they drop right into the owners pockets and act as nice bonuses. Gets them another toy.
There are many fans and analysts that aren’t connecting that and why Todd’s still employed.
I think 8-9 is a likely outcome and winning the division is a solid probability.if they don’t make a move after, it’s going to be difficult to fool even those kool aid loving fans. The jig is up at that point. Not trying is never a good look and sets up apathy.
August 31st, 2026 at 9:50 am
@ Kosmo
I try to be fair and open-minded if anyone wants to use logic, reason and real data to back-up their arguments…
But it is difficult to debate with folks who just want to insult, bully and conduct lame attempts at intimidation just because I have a difference of opinion.
It’s both sad and pathetic.
August 31st, 2026 at 10:23 am
6 maybe 8 wins at most, we lose the NFC South again and Bowles gets another pass for being black. there I said the truth out loud
August 31st, 2026 at 10:34 am
We beat Seattle and Houston on the Road and 49ers at home. We were in a loft close games. Only Buffalo, New England, and LA dominated us and they. all went deep into playoffs.
August 31st, 2026 at 11:47 am
Buddha. Buffalo dominated us? We were ahead in the 4th quarter. New England dominated us. We threw 3 TD passes and had 0 turnovers. We also allowed New England 4 TDS of over 60 yards- first time that had been done in over 20 years in the NFL. The Rams scored 31 points in the first half and that was taking their foot off the gas. Only the Rams dominated us. The Rams, Patriots, and Bills dominated the worst defense in the NFC South. Let’s not forget that.
August 31st, 2026 at 12:11 pm
So, you would keep a head coach just because he wins a Division by DEFAULT… Then, what are we as fans wasting our time for!? THIS FO is striving to be the Mike Tomlin Steelers. They are fine with that. Stagnant. Boring. And, knowing every season, that you have NO SHOT and you’re NOT going to moving forward (hence the reason 80% of the fanbase was HIM GONE for years, before the FO eventually had no other choice). I mean, WHY!? When, MY expectations for the team that I refer to as “We” and “Us” is to imitate the successful MODERN DAY franchises, such as the Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, Chiefs, Jaguars, Packers, Lions, and several others whom have now moved in that direction. Our current status quo with this SAME OLD regime, is just not good enough. They are not smart enough. Motivated enough. Aggressive enough. Bold enough. Forward-thinking enough. Creative enough. Or, capable enough. And, they’re NOT going to be, either. This MUST END ASAP. Now, is the perfect timing. Beginning, just before this upcoming trade-deadline. It has to start THEN.
August 31st, 2026 at 12:25 pm
Come on. Had the Bucs been in ANY other division in the LEAGUE over these previous 4-YEARS, would they have even gone to the Playoffs ONCE!? Most likely, absolutely NOT. Possibly the COEN year, but definitely NOT twice. So, let that sink in. It’s ALL FAKERY. Smoke & Mirrors. 💯
August 31st, 2026 at 12:29 pm
7-10 and win the division.
August 31st, 2026 at 12:44 pm
The single most important thing that decides the destiny of an NFL season is injuries. This is a last man standing league, and the wounded are picked off by vultures.
The Bucs are more depth challenged than most playoff contenders. Take away a starter at QB/OL/TE/S/CB and he’s being replaced by someone who might be a roster bubble player at best on a team like the Broncos or Rams.
Job 1 is staying healthy – if they can do that the win expectation floor goes up and postseason chances to be more than a 1-and-done playoff team with it.
Take away 2-3 starters among those vulnerable areas and this Bucs team turns into an 8 win pumpkin.
August 31st, 2026 at 3:26 pm
Losing Evans is normally good for 3 LOSSES per year, but as he was injured last year, we’ll take half of that, or -1.5. But even worse than losing Evans was keeping Bowles.
How do you explain this?
August 31st, 2026 at 5:41 pm
“Had the Bucs been in ANY other division in the LEAGUE over these previous 4-YEARS, would they have even gone to the Playoffs ONCE!?”
Quite possibly the AFC South and AFC North were worse. One or the other division hasn’t been any better than the NFC South the past few years. And, no, don’t go by the record of the top team. They didn’t play the Bucs (seeing how it it is a different division).
There were two divisions worse than the NFC South last year, if you go by records. The NFC North was a combined 29-39. The NFC East was a combined 27-40-1. The NFC South was 30-38.
August 31st, 2026 at 5:46 pm
@Tautology – The Bucs were 4-4 with Evans last year. Not exactly the difference maker.
August 31st, 2026 at 6:02 pm
Careful @Scott McKirahan
The south being a trash division with Jr league teams is one of the whiny misery brigades key narratives to diss the team and coaches they claim to be fans of.