Conor Orr: Bucs Finish 7-10
August 5th, 2026
Depressing prediction.
Joe suspects if this truly happens, it may inspire change of some sort at One Buc Palace.
Conor Orr of SI.com posted his annual game-by-game prediction for every NFL. Orr makes sure every game adds up, so four teams in a division don’t have 10 wins, for example, or the Rams don’t beat the Bucs in one team’s prediction and then lose to the Bucs in another.
Orr begins his NFC South breakdown with encouraging words of hope for Bucs fans. He admits the last time he picked a doom-and-gloom season for Tampa Bay it won a playoff game that season.
For 2026, Orr sees too many off-the-field things happening that will drag the Bucs down. Too many stars bolting in free agency, retiring or mired in contract disputes.
My pessimism in Tampa Bay stems from the losses of both Lavonte David to retirement and Mike Evans to free agency, with the team’s remaining veteran stalwarts like Baker Mayfield and Vita Vea both going through public contract disputes. With a coach who would seem to be on the hot seat, it feels like there is little terra firma in Tampa on which to stand.
This can sometimes be meaningless, and it can sometimes set the course for larger-scale change.
Tampa Bay still boasts one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, signed my favorite offensive free-agent target in Kenneth Gainwell, and attacked the defense relentlessly via the draft and free agency. GM Jason Licht did not take this offseason lying down, and as much as Tampa Bay feels like a team in transition, the organization has set itself up to compete in 2026. I loved the point Alex Blickle made about the hiring of Zac Robinson as the team’s new offensive coordinator: This was obviously a move to get more running backs involved in the passing game. To take his point a step further, Mayfield had one of the highest EPAs per scramble in the NFL last year, which is not something you want a 30-plus-year-old Mayfield doing. Involving the running back in the passing game more—something Gainwell does incredibly well—could take much-needed stressors off Mayfield and remove some injury risk. The Buccaneers have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL. I have the team splitting the season series with Carolina and Atlanta, sweeping the Saints and beating the Rams, so I don’t want to hear that I am not being fair.
Orr has the Stinking Panthers winning the division.
What surprised Joe is Orr having the Bucs starting 1-4. Perhaps KitKat-eating Bucs coach Todd Bowles’ best trait is he regularly has the Bucs ready to play when the regular season kicks off. The Bucs have started 2-0 in each of the past four seasons.
Starting out 1-4 almost always means missing the playoffs, for any team.
And Team Glazer has a history of major change when the team misses the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.
August 5th, 2026 at 4:03 am
If the defense can get to where it needs to be, even w/o lazy Vea, then the Bucs can easily win 10 games. I think Baker will have a chip on his shoulder and ball out. This offense will be better and special teams will be good this season.
August 5th, 2026 at 5:31 am
Man, I love Lavonte as much as the next Bucs fan.
But when will the people doing lazy analysis realize the position has been upgraded, and HOF LB Lavonte David was not on the team last year?
August 5th, 2026 at 5:54 am
We were 8-9 LAST year, with record injuries, and 4 defensive starters who shouldn’t have been on the field. HOW are we going to regress even further?
August 5th, 2026 at 5:59 am
@buc4ever
@drunk Bucs fan
Two outstanding takes. One separates the messenger from the message, the other separates narratives from actual football. That’s how you have a discussion.
🫡
@Orr
Orr spends three paragraphs explaining why Tampa has a top offensive line, upgraded the defense, improved the offense, and reduced the burden on Baker… then predicts 7-9. That’s not analytics, that’s fan fiction with a standings table. GTFO
🔥 LFG!
👨🍳 Bake 4 MVP!!
August 5th, 2026 at 6:10 am
Conor Orr: Bucs Finish 7-9
7 and 9 is NOT EXACTLY…the Droid I am looking for ORR!!!!
And we will be 7 and 9 because an old guy (David) retired?
We lost Evans thru Free Agency …. a guy who can’t stay healthy
We will be 7 and 9 if it does happen, it will be because Bucs ownership and GM kept Todd Bowles!!!
SMH
August 5th, 2026 at 6:20 am
buc4evr … Not sure this team can ‘easily’ win 10 games, but I’m convinced we CAN win 10 games (and the NFC South crown) IF we can stay reasonably healthy. I think most of our games are gonna be real dogfights this year.
I don’t understand Orr having us starting the season 1-4. All teams work hard to improve, but it seems to be really hard to just flip from a losing schedule to a winning one. Bengals went 6-11 last year; Browns 5-12; Vikings 9-8; Packers 9-7-1; Cowboys 7-9-1. That’s a combined 36-47-2 record; none of them were totally awful teams, but none were world-beaters either. Since only 2 of those games are away, and the Bucs normally start fairly strong under Bowles, I’d think that going 3-2 is a more realistic start to the season.
Bucs should have a pretty decent chance to break even in the 4 games after that prior to the BYE week. Winning 2 games in that Steelers (10-7), Panthers (8-9), Falcons (8-9) and Bears (11-6) stretch should be doable.
The last 8 games after the BYE will be critical to our season (as they always are). Still, only 3 of those 8 teams had a winning 2025 records … Lions (9-8); Chargers (11-6); Rams (12-5). If we can end the season by winning 5-of-8 of those games, we’d have our 10 wins.
Avoiding extended losing streaks is the key IMO to having a decent season. Bowles’ teams seem to have had a lot of trouble doing that over the years. In his HC gig with the Jets, he only had 1-out-of-4 winning seasons (10-6), and in that 2015 season his longest losing streak was 2 games. The next 2016 season he lost 4 games in a row TWICE (to finish 5-11). He lost 4 games in a row once to finish 5-11 again in 2017, and 6 games in a row in 2018 to finish 4-12 in 2018.
The same pattern though has continued with the Bucs while Todd’s been HC (but not in 2019-2021 while he was just DC). In 2022 we finished 8-9 & had one 3-game losing streak. Improved to 9-8 in 2023 but had to overcome a 4-game losing streak to do it. In 2024 we improved some more to 10-7 but again had to overcome (finish strong) another 4-game losing streak. And last season we had to overcome yet another 4-game losing streak just to finish 8-9.
In Bowles 8 years as a HC with the Jets (4 years) & Bucs (4 years), his teams have had 6 years in which they’ve experienced 4-game losing streaks or longer. And in that time he’s only had 3 seasons with winning records … 2015, 2023 & 2024 … winning 10 games in 2 of those seasons & 9 games in 1 of those seasons. In all fairness, both the Jets & the Bucs kinda have a history of being meh franchises as far as winning & losing goes, but danged, 6-out-of-8 years as a HC with extended (4-game) losing streaks is not a good look. Can’t afford that this year.
August 5th, 2026 at 6:44 am
No offense, but if I actually cared what those idiots thought I’d read them myself.
August 5th, 2026 at 6:57 am
Carolina, and Atlanta are already dealing with major injuries. I think N.O. is our biggest challenge. We need to sweep Atl, Car to get to 10 wins, we’ll split with N.O.. They might have a real QB, they have good receivers, an offensive minded young coach, and a last place schedule. Watch out for the Saints. I also think the outside media is way over blowing the losses of Evans, and David. Mike has some gas left, but David was running on empty. Had Evans stayed, we’d have Baker feeling like he has to get him the ball for another 1000. Now without it frees Baker, and the OC to really just go with the open man. So losing Mike might actually be a plus for the offense. One week from tomorrow we’ll get a peak at this years team. Think the only thing still holding this team back is the head man.
August 5th, 2026 at 7:05 am
@ DR
I agree.
Bucs won’t be bad but we won’t win 10 games “easily” that’s for sure…
I believe the Bucs were 6-3 last season in games settled by 3 points or less.
It will probably be similar this season.
August 5th, 2026 at 7:22 am
@ buc4evr..Love the ” lazy Vea” comment! Doritos and video games with Suh in his ear this off season .Its crazy how he’s a hero to some posters..They stay healthy its an easy trip to the playoffs!!
August 5th, 2026 at 7:27 am
Gruden could fix this.
August 5th, 2026 at 7:51 am
@ JoeBob
“Gruden could fix this.”
I agree.
Gruden would trade away all of our best players in exchange for draft picks.
Those draft picks would then be used to draft total busts.
All fixed!
What an amazing football wizard our beloved John Gruden is…
August 5th, 2026 at 8:06 am
As Joe says, normally the Bucs start fast but Joe Burrow will be healthy and is really talking up his team – so loss for the Bucs. Wins vs. Clev and Minn. The Bucs can win the GB games if Bucs fans actually out-number the GB fans! C’mon Bucs fans – let’s show up against GB.
August 5th, 2026 at 8:11 am
7-9 sounds very much like a Todd Bowles led team.
August 5th, 2026 at 8:17 am
I hope we don’t start 3-6. I hate looking at the draft in November.
August 5th, 2026 at 8:20 am
if the BUCS stay healthy and defense shows up, Bucs can win 11games…Baker needs to play smart and defense has to get off the field
GO BUCS!!!!!
August 5th, 2026 at 8:37 am
Someone needs to go back to fifth grade math class. 7-9 is sixteen games.
They play 17 games now. That’s why we had the championship level record of 8-9 in 2025 thanks to Todd Bowles.
I’m ready for the season to start so we can end the predictions and get to the reality.
August 5th, 2026 at 8:44 am
hee hee – I think a lot of the JBF fanbase has been chewing up their stash of hemp-based gummies before the November ban – if the Bucs start 1-3 the season is over and an utter collapse will ensue – the notion of a winning season even now in August is the stuff of weed-infused hallucinations – the Bucs CANNOT lose to either CLE or MIN, and have to go at least 1-1 against GB & PIT – CIN & DAL should be the favorites and Orr’s prediction seems reasonable but maybe even too pessimistic for me – but a 3-6 start would presage a much worse finish than 7-10 .. but even a 2-15 record would not pry the Licht / Bowles barnacles from the hull of the Buccaneer Cove pirate ship – hello Lost Decade the Sequel
August 5th, 2026 at 8:46 am
I see the season going much in the same way as Orr…
Surveying the NFCS landscape, I firmly believe this is the year Teams in this division rise and surpass the Bucs who have not really done much to better themselves while the other teams have quietly improved….
Prediction: Panthers and Falcons battle for crown while Bucs firmly in third and the Saints struggle another season.
August 5th, 2026 at 8:54 am
If an a given Sunday we can beat the Rams then on any given Sunday we should be able to compete to win!! cinci will be a tough game to start but they traditionally start slow also
August 5th, 2026 at 9:30 am
Fred, Joe has stated many times that he writes about what interests him.
August 5th, 2026 at 9:42 am
@can-we,
I think we live on opposite sides of the fence in the sense of optimism, but I am afraid I agree with you that if we start 1-3 it’s a wrap.
Crazy thing is, doesn’t mean we can’t win the division. NFC South Proud!
August 5th, 2026 at 9:48 am
FTN says Buccaneers schedule is 4th easiest in league They see 9 wins as floor, 11 as ceiling.
August 5th, 2026 at 9:55 am
5-12 due to Bowles Curse
August 5th, 2026 at 9:59 am
It would have to be 7-9-1 with a tie to make 17 games.
August 5th, 2026 at 10:13 am
Well between B & B when you look at their best best seasons 10.5 is the average. Being there’s 1 more game now between both it could swing either way. 7-10 or 11-6. I’ve seen enough from both to know it will go somewhere in between those two records.
August 5th, 2026 at 10:19 am
If can we get rid of Licht is correct or new song will be “HELLO DARKNESS MY OLD FRIEND” Bowles theme song
August 5th, 2026 at 10:39 am
Evidently, Correct thinks the Rams will have the NFC bye clinched y week 16.
August 5th, 2026 at 10:50 am
Orr, not Correct.
August 5th, 2026 at 11:13 am
Buddha Says:
FTN says Buccaneers schedule is 4th easiest in league
General question here. ESPN has the Bucs SOS at #12 easiest. FTN has it 4th. Isn’t this just a calculation of winning % of your opponents from the previous year? Or is some creative bookkeeping going on somewhere. Shouldn’t everyone get the same #?
August 5th, 2026 at 11:46 am
His predictions at the bottom say 7-10, Joe botched the headline.
August 5th, 2026 at 12:42 pm
Bucs are 10 -7 imo. Win 10 and you’re in !
Go Bucs !!
August 5th, 2026 at 1:28 pm
So we’ll be 7-10 because we lost LVD and Mike ?
He does know they were a big part of last years problem right ?
August 5th, 2026 at 3:53 pm
Tired of the Evans articles. Have you read he’s was out due to a strain in his leg. Wish him well, but so old having to read about him.
August 5th, 2026 at 4:10 pm
Bucs play the
NFC South
AFC North
NFC North
Dallas, Rams and Chargers
Sorry, I can’t find more than 6 or 7 wins with that schedule