When Blitzes Don’t Work
July 1st, 2026
Blitzes went up in smoke in 2025.
Regular readers know Joe thinks pressures are pretty close to a worthless stat. At best, their value is grossly overrated.
What is a pressure? It’s when a defender allegedly gets close to a quarterback. You know — BOO! I see you!
Joe likes to think a goal of any defender attacking the quarterback is a sack. But the way some people — including those who wield influence at One Buc Palace — talk about pressures (not sacks!), it makes Joe wonder.
To Joe, pressures are playing horseshoes and hand grenades, the only two things in life where “close” matters.
Quality quarterbacks are not phased by pressure. And Joe thinks it is a safe bet that if a team has plans to make a Super Bowl run, sooner or later in January or February, a defense is going to face a quality quarterback.
You know, just a wild hunch.
Only in the NFL do (some) people get worked up about an almost-stat. Do you ever see people applaud an almost-tackle? An almost-catch? An almost-successful field goal attempt?
But when you almost get a sack, a pressure, some rise to their feet to offer a standing-O. Joe just doesn’t get it. The only real positive Joe can glean from a pressure is that it demonstrates a defender is able to get past blocks. But still, he didn’t get home.
Bucs coach Todd Bowles dialed up a dizzy array of blitzes last season, as usual. He had to. Because he couldn’t get any pressures (oh, boy!) from his front-seven.
Blitzes are cool and fun if they work. But if they don’t…
Famed handicapper-turned-stathead Warren Sharp, in his Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, took a look at Bucs blitzes. The hard numbers are gruesome.
Tampa couldn’t record pressure unless it manufactured it with a blitz. They ranked #18 in pressure rate when not blitzing. This has been a Bowles problem for years in Tampa. When his defense is not blitzing, their pressure rate (29%) ranks #24, and their hit rate ranks #25.
So Bowles dials up well-above-average blitz rates (#5 highest in 2025). But on blitzes last year, his defense recorded just 11 total sacks, #17.
Consider that stat: #5 highest blitz rate, 185 total blitzes (#6 most), but only 11 sacks.
What Joe would like to know are the numbers Sharp didn’t offer. A failed blitz pretty much guarantees some receiver got open. What Joe is curious about are the numbers Sharp did not provide: What was the result of all those plays where blitzes didn’t work?
Joe would have to think the numbers are gnarly.
It’s one thing if you have zero edge rush. It’s quite another to send blitzes play after play after play with minimal results.
Until the mindset at One Buc Palace changes (has it already?), where folks put a premium on an edge rush like most normal Super Bowl contenders do, why should Joe or any Bucs fan expect a different result?
It wasn’t long ago when the Bucs put a premium on edge rushers sacking quarterbacks. And look what happened: The Bucs hoisted the Lombardi Trophy!
A key reason the Bucs beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, one of the greatest defensive games in Super Bowl history, was largely because the Bucs had a ferocious edge rush that night. That’s no coincidence, folks.
Joe has been screaming about a lack of an edge rush for years. The only thing as consistent has been the lack of an edge rush.
July 1st, 2026 at 5:01 am
Pressures are like having a stat of AT’s (Almost Tackles), i.e. “McCollum had 5 AT’s last game”. When you have a Head Coach that thinks ALMOST counts, such as “Hey, the game was close, the Bucs ALMOST won”, you have a problem.
July 1st, 2026 at 5:06 am
No worries. Our coach is a highly respected defensive guru.
July 1st, 2026 at 5:22 am
How does Warren define a blitz in a 3-4 defense? By some definitions we are blitzing every play.
July 1st, 2026 at 5:49 am
Pressures don’t matter, except of course there happens to be a proven correlation between pressure and reduced QB accuracy.
July 1st, 2026 at 6:13 am
There is a direct correlation between pressures and declining QB accuracy. Posted for the second time, as the first disappeared…
July 1st, 2026 at 6:18 am
There’s also a clear and obvious correlation between increased pressures and increased sack numbers. Saying we don’t want pressures, we want sacks is illogical. Sacks come from pressure. And pressure creates QB inefficiencies
July 1st, 2026 at 6:39 am
Bowles blitzes dont get home while he also like to drop the best pass rushers into coverage on passing downs. This has failed miserably season after season but Bowles keeps doing it. Bain has a lot of pressure on his shoulders to salvage the pass rush.
What is Bowles going to do different this season to maximize defensive talent?
July 1st, 2026 at 7:16 am
QB’s NOT named Jameis usually don’t throw picks unless they’re hurried into a mistake, and we haven’t been forcing those since JPP hurt his shoulder in ’21
July 1st, 2026 at 7:16 am
Good thing we saw the front office go out and get some players to address improving our ability rushing with 4-5 down players on the LOS.
July 1st, 2026 at 7:37 am
Bowles blitz packages create wide a$$$ open flats. SMH
July 1st, 2026 at 8:04 am
Pressures only work against lower level QBs who get rattled by it.
Blitz Stafford and you damn well better get him on the ground.
QBs like Josh Allen, Mahomes and Lamar Jackson routinely burn blitzes with off schedule improv plays. Baker is in this category too.
The only pressures that should count are ones not relying on a blitz to get there. The front 4 has to get home. THAT is when pressures matter against elite QBs.
July 1st, 2026 at 8:07 am
Close used to count in drive-in movies.
Rachel Watson hardest hit.
Poor Joe.
July 1st, 2026 at 8:11 am
We one the SB over the Chiefs with Pressure as well. But that was real pressure. The real problem as a stat is what they qualify as pressure. Pressure is more than getting close to a quarterback. Real Pressure without a sack is making a quarterback eyes move for a split second or have him running for his life. That’s what we did in the SB. But Pressure is combined with interceptions and knockdowns. We were in Mahomes’ head because we altered his throws and decisions due to real Pressure, Not what KitKat accept as a Pressure stat.
July 1st, 2026 at 8:25 am
Toad Bowels will never change his lousy Swiss cheese pass defense scheme.
Getting bounced in round one vs the Redskins in 2024 was directly on the defense.
It was then followed up by one of the worst jobs a DC ever put in and 2025 ended with a whimper.
The guy responsible was given a raise and an extension for those efforts.
Why in the world would anything change? Answer: It will not change until Bowles is fired.
Until then you better strap in and get used to incompetence and failure.
July 1st, 2026 at 8:34 am
When was the last time the Bucs had a coverage sack? With Bowles Charmin-soft zone there aren’t any coverage sacks.
While not a sack, QB knockdowns can wear down a QB over a game and force bad throws or shorter passes.
Better QB’s will just dump the ball off to a back in the flat to avoid a sack but record a pressure (like Tua), so completion % stays high, but first down % goes down. Too bad the Bucs are so bad covering backs and TEs.
July 1st, 2026 at 8:36 am
Yeah, it’s not like soccer where fans go crazy when their team almost scores.
July 1st, 2026 at 8:50 am
Ehhhh LynchBob idk…. We got bounced in 2024 bc Coen got cute with rookie players running a jet sweep. Sign sealed and delivered that game to the commandos
July 1st, 2026 at 9:11 am
Bottom line is we whiffed on late, mid RD1 picks – JTS, Hall, Kancey. (I know, Hall is RD2…) YaYa is a decent #2 Edge, but we haven’t invested in a Big Dog. We’ve put mid and late RD picks and UDFA on the field all over this defense. The guys may be able to start but with the shallow talent pool that’s a low bar. Then the guys we paid ended up mailing it in – Zyon, AWJ, Dean. We crammed Dean down on his contract – the right thing, over paid a mediocre McCollum – horribly wrong thing, and put up with AWJ – for now. And Reddick – total waste on the cheap.
Lots of new blood, talent and attitude. But also some older guys hoping to squeeze at least one more good year out of their careers. We’ve put the money on offense. This offseason we finally STARTED to rework defense. My take is we’re still a couple years away from a championship caliber D.
We won the SB with a talented front 7 – VV, Suh, Gholston, JPP, Shaq – CB’s playing strong pressman coverage and ILB’s that could flat out run – with anyone. We haven’t fielded that caliber of talent since.
July 1st, 2026 at 9:21 am
Joe says…
“Only in the NFL do (some) people get worked up about an almost-stat. Do you ever see people applaud an almost-tackle? An almost-catch? An almost-successful field goal attempt?”
This is very well written and a perfect definition. Weak sauce=pressures
C’mon Todd…now or never. GO BUCS.
July 1st, 2026 at 9:52 am
Bowles blitzes have been figured out, but he still goes back to them time and again.
July 1st, 2026 at 10:01 am
A real coach would teach the players how to disguise their blitzes, and then teach them the skills necessary to succeed when they blitz. Not Twocoach. Even Stevie Wonder can tell who is blitzing when the Genis calls for one. And of course they fail. Twocoach has reinvented the telegraph system. The blitzer is telegraphing, but at least he’s confused.
It’s all part of being The Great Regressor.
Mike knows.
July 1st, 2026 at 11:26 am
Jack Burton Mercer … ‘How does Warren define a blitz in a 3-4 de fense? By some definitions we are blitzing every play.’
I’ve of ten wondered the same thing Jack. Granted that an OLB is a linebacker, but his job is mostly pass rushing. So if he does his primary job (pass rush) is he blitzing or just doing his job?
Shaq had 19.5 sacks back in 2019, and I contend that a big reason was because he was being supported by Suh, Vea, RNR, Gholston on our DLine, plus paired with JPP & Nassib as the other OLBs. He played inall 16 games & got 889 def snaps (79%). Significantly he was credited with 174 blitzes plus withe being targeted 11 timess and the completed 9 of those (he also got 1 INT). In my eyes though, Shaq was a pass rusher, so why should he get credited with any blitzes? He was just ‘doing his job’.
BTW Shaq did a LOT more that year than ‘just’ get 19.5 sacks. He also got 37 QB hits and 19 TFLs (sounds like he got into opponents’ backfield a LOT). He also made 58 tackles (45 of them solo) and forced 6 fumbles.
July 1st, 2026 at 11:31 am
Kgh4life Says:
July 1st, 2026 at 9:52 am
Bowles blitzes have been figured out, but he still goes back to them time and again.
^^^^^^^^
This is what DC’s do after they’ve been figured out and can’t adjust. We’ll see if it’ll be 3 straight years for Bowles, or if he can get his head out of his hind quarters.
July 1st, 2026 at 11:34 am
Well done! #GolfClap
July 1st, 2026 at 12:16 pm
Only in the NFL do (some) people get worked up about an almost-stat. Do you ever see people applaud an almost-tackle? An almost-catch? An almost-successful field goal attempt?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
What about almost catches, almost made the line to gain (on dump offs because of pressure) or good old fashioned throws out of bounds.
July 1st, 2026 at 1:08 pm
“Only in the NFL do (some) people get worked up about an almost-stat. Do you ever see people applaud an almost-tackle? An almost-catch? An almost-successful field goal attempt?”
It’s tracked by the NFL for a reason, it’s important and it’s not just about sacks.
Pressure forces issues, throws off rhythm and timing between QB-WR while also being a metric for a defense as a whole to generate it. Sacks are just 1 correlated outcome of pressure, but INTs, incompletions, and dead plays are also bi-products of a teams ability to generate pressure.
The fact the comment section is struggle/grappling with how pressure effects the game says more about what you may/may not realize about the game some of us do.
Play design, pre-snap adjustments, slide protection, personnel assignments, and verbal cues all dedicated to playing the game within the game when it comes to identifying pressure. If you don’t think it matters it’s cool for you to think, but it doesn’t need you to understand it to be more/less a real, tangible part of the game.
July 1st, 2026 at 2:02 pm
JOE, you and I have bin beating the same drum for awhile now. Gotta beef us the dline. Lot of people hate on Bowles and rightfully so cause of his defenses performance the past several years but if he gets some dawgs like JPP, Shaq , and suh on the dline like we had then his defenses does perform better. We had Davis , SBM , Dean, whitehead and Winfield in the back not super stars but with a pass rush they were good enough to help us win a SB.
July 1st, 2026 at 2:57 pm
WBL is correct.
The idea that pressures don’t matter, like several other narratives repeatedly printed here, just doesn’t stand up to logic.
Of course a blitz that gets home is better than one that doesn’t but it doesn’t make the ones that don’t result in a sack worthless. It’s not so hard to understand if you try thinking about it 🤔
July 1st, 2026 at 3:34 pm
You know, blitzes can be effective. There are several elements to a successful blitz. One of the main elements is the element of surprise. Our defense didn’t have that element last year. The other elements? We didn’t have those, either. A big bad four man rush sure can get a defense going. We’ll see.
July 3rd, 2026 at 4:59 pm
Better defensive players this year no doubt. Let’s hope for the best.