Forecasting The Baker Mayfield-Bucs Contract Dance
June 9th, 2026
Decisions.
The Bucs have options if somehow the team and Baker Mayfield can’t come to terms on a new contract.
Mayfield put his foot down last week saying once training camp opens up, no contract talks until after the season. His contract expries after the 2026 season.
One option is the franchise tag that sits in the Bucs’ back pocket. Mayfield may not like it, but he’ll get paid alright, if he agrees to sign the tag.
If the Bucs don’t want to franchise Mayfield, the creator, curator and overall guru of Pro Football Talk, the great Mike Florio, took an educated guess that the Bucs and Mayfield will come to some sort of deal before the 2026 season kicks off.
“Can they get it done for both sides? It’s a risk,” Florio said on his weekday morning show “PFT Live,” seen on NBC Sports Network. “Mayfield needs to have a solid year to have suitors elsewhere if he would become a free agent, and the Buccaneers need to have a solid Plan-B if Mayfield would leave.
“I believe the Buccaneers think that at the end of the day they are going to offer Mayfield more than anyone else will, and [Mayfield will] take the bird in the hand in lieu of assuming the risk of injury during the 2026 season.”
That last sentence is key for Joe. Mayfield is a walking injury waiting to happen in some respects. That’s because he’s a linebacker with a gifted arm playing QB.
No quarterback is more physical than Mayfield with the exception of Josh Allen, who is much bigger than Mayfield and can absorb the punishment better.
In two of the three years Mayfield has been in Tampa, he literally limped to the regular-season finish line. The Bucs shut out Carolina 9-0 in Week 18 in 2023 and Mayfield could not throw in that game because he was so beat up. To be fair, he was very good and strong in the playoffs.
Last year, Mayfield fell off the cliff after the bye with several injuries. He might have been the best quarterback in the league in the first eight games, then the Bucs lost seven nine and blew their playoff chances. Mayfield’s injuries were one of many reasons for the collapse.
If Mayfield gets hurt again — and it’s a coin flip he will or won’t — and struggles down the stertch, then next offseason he will be a 32-year old quarterback who regularly gets banged up and struggles in a season.
Trust Joe, there aren’t a lot of teams waiting to throw $175 million dollars for three years at an injury-prone quarterback on the wrong side of 30.
The other option for the Bucs? Well, the 2027 draft is expected to be rich with quarterbacks.
At the end of the day, with the Bucs wanting Mayfield and with Mayfield wanting to stay, Joe can’t envision any other quarterback starting for Tampa Bay to open the 2027 season.
June 9th, 2026 at 9:02 am
Thank goodness for Baker contract drama or there would be no Bucs stories
June 9th, 2026 at 9:05 am
This needs to get resolved before the season starts. This is all anybody will talk about during the season for better or worse. Get “Born Again” Baker signed to a 5-year deal and shore up that Putrid Pass Defense and this team is ready for 2026.
Go Bucs!
June 9th, 2026 at 9:09 am
With all due respect I couldn’t care less what Mr Tabloid Cheap Gossip Florio has to say about this topic.
June 9th, 2026 at 9:24 am
32 year old small, injury prone QBs don’t get better with age, Baker is Derek Carr waiting to happen, just good enough to get us to the playoffs not good enough to win it all, don’t saddle the franchise and next HC coach with an over paid average QB, Tua Kyler Kirk are examples of wasting resources on average QBs
June 9th, 2026 at 9:31 am
Agree.
June 9th, 2026 at 9:41 am
I’m fine moving on from Baker.
However – there better be a solid plan to replace/upgrade the QB position when he leaves.
I would love to know what our GM is thinking.
We could be looking at starting Jacoby Brissett in 2027…
LOL!!!
June 9th, 2026 at 9:44 am
Aside from DE the other position the Bucs find themselves poor at developing is the QB.
I’m not a fan of turning the team balance sheet upside down for Mayfield. And Mayfield SHOULDNT want that either. If he cares about the team and his legacy he SHOULD want the best players money can buy around him.
I dunno what finances these guys deal with. So, far be it for me to comment on what’s enough for your family especially after your Father seemingly stole from you and set your financial gains waaay back…but…at some point you gotta want to be a team player.on a team with exceptional talent.
Unless you don’t have faith you’re going to make it a few more yrs. Then I guess you grab everything you can and hope the door doesn’t hit you on the way out as you count.your money, and protect.your knees.
June 9th, 2026 at 9:47 am
Baker is Jeff Garcia with a better arm. The contract situation is already settled. There is no rush because hes under contract and he won’t hold out and miss his $40 million bonus. He’ll finish the season with no extension and move on in 2027. If there was a market for Baker other teams would be mentioned right now, not hypotheticals about teams next off-season. The Bucs being willing to pay more than other teams shows you how low his value is. It also shows the Bucs are the only ones that “want” him.
The Bucs will weather this media storm and nothing new will happen with the contract. Baker maxed out his abilities in 2023 with the Bucs.
June 9th, 2026 at 10:07 am
@ Bee
“Baker is Jeff Garcia with a better arm.”
I believe Baker is Jeff Garcia with a worse arm… Especially late in the 4th qtr…
lol.
June 9th, 2026 at 10:09 am
@MB
🤣🤣🤣 You might be right.
June 9th, 2026 at 10:11 am
If Baker Mayfield is here to stay until the end of his career and he wants a Super Bowl more than money.. He simply has to force the Glazers hand (They fear the Beard!) and keep Todd Bowles as Head Coach, but take the DC job away from him! Baker Mayfield would be my Hero if he did that!
June 9th, 2026 at 10:11 am
I don’t get the ridiculous injury talk. It doesn’t matter if he signs or doesn’t sign if he gets hurt it would be bad. But the notion he’s injury prone is absurd . He has a will to win and his fight is what gets other teammates and fans fired up. If everybody does their job including the defense, Mayfield does not have to carry the whole team where these injuries take place. But a qb that fights through injuries and hasn’t missed a game in 3 years is not injury prone. That’s just a dumb statement.
June 9th, 2026 at 10:21 am
It’s not a coin flip on whether he gets injured. It’s a coin flip on how serious it is and if he misses time.
He is one tough SOB but he will get hurt again unless he learns to not play every down like it’s 4th down in the 4th quarter of the SB. Hes just not wired like that.
And this is one reason why (as stated by Joe) you have to build protections into the contract and not be irresponsible.
June 9th, 2026 at 10:21 am
I’ve been saying Jeff Garcia for two years now. He’s a good QB. Not great. If he’s in the top tier, that says more about the state of the NFL than any particular greatness from Baker. Darnold didn’t get a new contract in Seattle and he won the Super Bowl. That tells you any new deal for Baker is overpaying him.
June 9th, 2026 at 10:45 am
1) Jeff Garcia was a lot better than many of our QB’s IMHO.
2) Baker’s arm is def stronger.
June 9th, 2026 at 10:50 am
Why not have both? Mayfield and a 2027 1st round QB draft pick…
June 9th, 2026 at 10:52 am
Run Baker Run 🏃
June 9th, 2026 at 10:52 am
Baker this – Baker that – Baker fell of a cliff – Baker shouldn’t have played injured – blah blah blah.
Who was the HC ?
Who was the OC ?
Where was the OL protection ?
Why did the defense quit ?
Why did ME13 leave ?
Why did Baker perform so well under Canales and Coen ?
Why is it all Baker’s fault now ?
Is he responsible for ALL the teams ailments ?
Has everyone forgotten all the good things said about Baker ?
Did Baker not save this team after TB12 ?
What has Baker done wrong to deserve all the unwarranted hate ?
What might have things been like if Coen replaced TB ?
What if unanticipated things happen ?
Things could spiral out of control and go south very quickly.
The owners are grasping for stability but stability can be as slippery as a bar of soap.
June 9th, 2026 at 11:01 am
it all depends on how this season unfolds….it aint how you start but how you finish…Baker hasnt finished well the past 2 seasons…
unlike joe, i could very much see the bucs in 2027 without Baker….time will tell
GO BUCS!!!!
June 9th, 2026 at 11:06 am
The biggest injury Baker suffered was Jason retaining Tood and losing Mike. Then, having to play under the huge wave of regression Twocoach promotes — the best thing for Baker is to get away from Todd asap.
Give him a ham sandwich and thank him for his service. Bucs can lose 14 games with or without Baker.
June 9th, 2026 at 11:13 am
Also, who’s to say that the bucs still don’t draft one of the QBs available next year?
If Baker is starting and gets a new contract, the rookie doesn’t have to start right away and this worked out well for Green Bay and Kansas City. Have a young quarterback learn under a veteran. Great insurance policy if the veteran gets hurt. Does anyone really think Browning is the guy? Jalon Daniels didn’t get drafted for a reason. I guess it depends on which quarterbacks lands where in next year’s draft.
I hope if this happens that it’s more of a Baltimore scenario, where you pick up your QB in the lower part of the first round and he ends up developing well. Also means you had a good season. Kansas City was a pretty good team when they traded up to get Mahomes at the 10th pick. I’d be okay if that was our scenario as well, though I’m expecting we’re still going to need a lot of our draft picks again making a trade up hard to do for a GM like Licht who loves his picks.
June 9th, 2026 at 11:20 am
“If there was a market for Baker other teams would be mentioned right now”
++++++++++++++++++++++
They already are. Pittsburg, Minnesota, and the Jets are most frequently mentioned.
And remember Doug Williams…..
June 9th, 2026 at 11:27 am
Sign Baker long term. Do it now!
June 9th, 2026 at 11:32 am
jcscycles Says:
June 9th, 2026 at 11:20 am
“If there was a market for Baker other teams would be mentioned right now”
++++++++++++++++++++++
They already are. Pittsburg, Minnesota, and the Jets are most frequently mentioned.
LOL…those teams can have baker and all his injuries and excuses lol…folks are acting like baker is the 2nd coming of brady lol….
1 playoff win in 2023
led the NFL in INTs and Fumbles in 2024
missed the playoffs in 2025
not impressive at all…
GO BUCS!!!
June 9th, 2026 at 12:01 pm
I’m so sick of the Baker haters on this site. My gut reaction is to tell Baker not to sign a contract this season, put up some great numbers, AND THEN RUN AWAY! Pittsburg would be a great fit. But there’s no way that Tampa will not sign him to a long term deal. That should more than pizz off his haters (morons) over and over again. And I’m really good with that.
June 9th, 2026 at 12:17 pm
There is no backup plan without Baker. If we don’t resign him, we will not win 5 games for the next 4-6 years.
Say what you want, but the numbers don’t lie. Baker is a top 10 QB all day everyday.
June 9th, 2026 at 12:27 pm
Regardless of his contract, if Baker has a good 2026, then he won’t be anywhere since the Bucs hold all the cards.
If Baker doesn’t have a good 2026, then Bowles is getting fired, and you’d have back to back seasons where Baker in one year got his entire offensive staff fired, then the next year got all the coaches fired. Guess what, a new coach isn’t going to want that guy around.
Baker is under contract, lets see how 2026 goes before considering any sort of extension. Not sure why anyone who is a Bucs fan would have a problem with that. But I can absolutely see how the Baker Boi(s), who are not Bucs fans, think this is the most important thing in the world that must get done right this second. They don’t care about winning, they don’t care about the future, they just care about Baker because they thought he was funny in those commercials were he lived a stadium.
June 9th, 2026 at 12:39 pm
If Mayfield were to get the non-exclusive tag next off-season. Do you believe another team would give the Bucs 2 first round picks to sign Baker???
June 9th, 2026 at 12:42 pm
When a nfl quarterback wants 60 mil a year and hasn’t been close to a Superbowl it’s time to say bye. There are a lot of overpaid quarterbacks in the nfl we don’t need one. Once you get the the big dance now that’s a different story
June 9th, 2026 at 12:59 pm
“Do you believe another team would give the Bucs 2 first round picks to sign Baker???”
Laughing stock
June 9th, 2026 at 12:59 pm
“Do you believe another team would give the Bucs 2 first round picks to sign Baker???”
Laughing stock
June 9th, 2026 at 12:59 pm
Chief … ‘There is no backup plan without Baker. If we don’t resign him, we will not win 5 games for the next 4-6 years.’
How could you possibly know that Chief? Did you say exactly the same when the 2019 season ended & we started out negotiating with Jameis (as I remember he wanted $21 mil a year to stay with us), but THEN Tom Brady entered the picture? MAYBE that exact same scenario will happen after the 2026 season ends if the Bucs decide to move on.
Fans (and often media?) are never privy to what goes on behind close doors in the NFL. If we were, there’d be no reason for doors. Nah, the most fruitful negotiations aren’t conducted in public.
Besides, the Bucs are building a very solid TEAM in my opinion. If Baker performs as I expect he can, there’s no reason our offense won’t end up ranked in the Top-10. And if some our new beasts on defense show their fangs, no reason our defense won’t end up ranked in the Top-10. Bucs have yet to do have BOTH ranked in the Top-10 under Bowles, but we hit that mark TWICE under BA … with Brady leading the offense, and Bowles as our DC. Now let’s see if Baker can accomplish that once again.
June 9th, 2026 at 1:05 pm
Guzzie55 Says:
June 9th, 2026 at 9:24 am
32 year old small, injury prone QBs don’t get better with age, Baker is Derek Carr waiting to happen, just good enough to get us to the playoffs not good enough to win it all, don’t saddle the franchise and next HC coach with an over paid average QB, Tua Kyler Kirk are examples of wasting resources on average QBs
—————
He just turned 31, not 32. Ever heard of Drew Brees, Jeff Garcia, Doug Flutie, Joe Theismann, Fran Tarkenton? All significantly smaller than Mayfield both in height and build and all had their best seasons AFTER the age of 32. You were saying? BTW, Derek Carr wasn’t small. Do you even watch football or just make stupid comments?
June 9th, 2026 at 1:39 pm
“Ever heard of Drew Brees, Jeff Garcia, Doug Flutie, Joe Theismann, Fran Tarkenton?”
Just listing names doesn’t mean he equates to them.
I also remember Johnny Manziel, Ty Detmer, Troy Smith, Dennard Robinson and others.
See?
June 9th, 2026 at 2:23 pm
Baker is inconsistent. You dont sign inconsistent QBs early. You make them prove their worth but this is the Retodd here. He makes stupid decisions and I have no doubt he will force Licht to overpay for Baker way before he needs to.
June 9th, 2026 at 3:07 pm
Once again, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson don’t do all that great in the playoffs and have not won a Super Bowl. Does that mean we should predict that they are not good enough to ever win one or is their TEAM deficient in some way and holding them back? It’s ridiculous to look at wins for quarterbacks and think they have a lot to do with performance. That’s especially true for players like Baker and Joe Burrow that play on teams known to not have a very good defenses lately!
Wins do not define the talent of a quarterback. How they perform driving the offense does. By all stats and indicators, Baker is a top 5-8 quarterback (some stats even higher!). Letting him leave would be a tragic mistake and would absolutely put this team way back and in a tailspin. Im not a Baker boi. Im à BUCS FAN! Im looking at this very clearly and people are manipulating statistics to serve their own viewpoints which are ludicrous and in many cases probably self-serving.