Snapping mid-season slumps.

You may have heard of the “middle eight.” It’s a phrase former NFL suit Mike Lombardi sort of made famous.

Lombardi used to preach on his former podcast that whatever team wins the “middle eight” likely wins the game. The middle eight is the last four minutes of a half and the first four minutes of the second half.

Bobby Bowden had this figured out long before Lombardi, though Bowden never referred to the middle eight. But it was the same philosophy.

Bowden always kicked off to start games. Why? He wanted to win the middle eight. If you can score late in the half, get the ball to start the second half and score again, you can either pull away from your opponent or if you are trailing, get back in the game quickly.

With the Bucs, it’s struggling in the middle eight. Not so much the game, but the season.

Jenna Laine of ESPN dug up a great stat showing how the Bucs shoot themselves in the foot every year in the middle of the season with the “middle six” games of the season.

Since [Baker] Mayfield arrived in Tampa in 2023, in Weeks 1-6, the Bucs own a 12-5 record, third best in the NFL in that span. Then in Weeks 13-18, they’ve gone 12-6 — fifth best in the league. While they’ve enjoyed hot starts and sizzling finishes, in Weeks 7-12 they’ve gone just 3-13 — 30th in the league.

So here is the Bucs’ schedule in the middle six:

Week 7: at Carolina
Week 8: Atlanta
Week 9: at Chicago
Week 10: bye.
Week 11: at Detroit
Week 12: Carolina

If the Bucs are going to win the middle six, they’ve got to come away with three wins. Just three wins in that span. Outside of Chicago, none of those teams is unbeatable.

(Joe’s not saying the Bears are unbeatable, but Chicago has really crummy weather in early November and given how the Bears have a really good team and a really good quarterback, that game will be an uphill climb. Given how the Bucs blow chunks in primetime games, Joe’s already chalking this game up with an L.)

If the Bucs can somehow beat the Bears and find a way to get two other wins in the middle six, Joe’s going to go ahead and call it: Bucs win the NFC South.