When Bucs Held Opponents To 22 Points Or Less
June 24th, 2026
Bucs defense made Joe grimace, too.
Offense wasn’t the problem last year.
Even with all the injuries to the offense, the line, receivers, running backs, hell, even Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield, though he didn’t miss a start, the offense didn’t doom the Bucs.
Offense not being a deciding issue is what Joe’s conclusion is after reading handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp’s deep dive into defensive play last season.
Sharp did a study to find how many wins each NFL team had when its defense held the opponent to 22 or fewer points. This happened seven times with the Bucs.
That one loss turned out to be a killer when the Bucs, in Week 17, when rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers was making his second career start. The tanking Dolphins scored 20 on the Bucs, but the Bucs yakked away their playoff chances in a 20-17 loss. Shameful.
In those seven times the Bucs defense held an opponent to 22 or fewer points, the Bucs lost just one game. So to Joe, the problem with the Bucs was the defense. And this always baffles Joe how a team with a defensive-minded head coach can have such a meh defense season after season.
June 24th, 2026 at 4:31 am
Joe, the Dolphins game is a terrible example to use for this model, teams that lose the turnover margin -3 win historically have a 9% win probability. The record of teams who’ve been -3 in the turnover margin since 2000 is W44-484-1
In those 7 games we held teams to 22 points or less we finished with a combined +6 in the turnover margin 11 takeaways to 5 giveaways, with 3 all coming in that same Dolphins game.
The data is good, how you’re trying to spin it needs some work though. Funny enough, our 2021 home opener against the Cowboy we finished -3 in the TO margin and won 31-29
June 24th, 2026 at 4:45 am
Joe … ‘Offense wasn’t the problem last year. Even with all the injuries to the offense, the line, receivers, running backs, hell, even Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield, though he didn’t miss a start, the offense didn’t doom the Bucs.’
Offense wasn’t a problem last year? Talk about chumming the water Joe (I’m confident that you didn’t write that with a straight face). Of course they were a problem (hint: that’s why it ranked #18 instead of #1). And yes, so was the defense (another hint: that’s why it ranked #20 instead of #1). Oh wait, let’s not forget about the Not-So-Special Special Teams (hint: rankings don’t go that low).
Sharp picked an arbitrary 22 points as his jumping off point, so let’s go with that. Let’s say that the Bucs’ defense gave up 22 points in every game. The offense would need to score 23 points to win every game. Simple math. Well, last season the Bucs’ offense scored UNDER 23 points EIGHT times, and we scored EXACTLY 23 points another 3 times. Not exactly an offensive powerhouse in those 11 games.
In those 8 games where our offense scored LESS than 23 points in a game, our record was 3-5, and those 3 wins (out of those 8) were spread out over the season:
o Bucs beat Texans 20-19 in Game 2.
o Bucs beat Cardinals 20-17 in Game 12.
o Bucs beat Panthers 16-14 in Game 17.
In the 5 games we lost where our offense scored less than 23, our non-problematic offense was a problem. For the most part, those games occurred in the 2nd half of the season:
o Bucs lost to Lions 24-9 in Game 7.
o Bucs lost to Rams 34-7 in Game 11.
o Bucs lost to Saints 24-20 in Game 13.
o Bucs lost to Panthers 23-20 in Game 15.
o Bucs lost to Dolphins 20-17 in Game 16.
But ya, our offense wasn’t the problem. We’ll go with that.
June 24th, 2026 at 5:16 am
Just as an aside, in the 6 games where our offense scored OVER 23 points, Bucs were 3-3.
o Bucs beat the Jets 29-27 (Dean had an INT for 7 points, and the S/Ts gave up a blocked FG return for 7 points, so our defense only surrendered 20 points that game and our offense only scored 22 points that game).
o Bucs lost to the Eagles 31-25 (Merriweather got a safety for 2 points, and our S/Ts gave up a blocked punt for 7 points, so our defense only surrendered 24 points that game and our offense only scored 23 points that game).
o Bucs beat the Seahawks 38-35 (Baker had an incredible game, and our defense struggled mightily, BUT they did generate 2 Seattle turnovers that were critical to our win).
o Bucs beat the 49ers 30-19 (Bucs defense generated 2 Niner turnovers that were critical to the win, and our offense scored 10 points off of those).
o Bucs lost to the Bills 44-32 (Bucs defense stunk it up that game, in the 4th qtr particularly).
o Bucs lost to the Falcons 29-28 (Falcons tried mightily to hand us the win by committing 19 penalties, but we refused to grab the win).
Overall, BOTH the offense AND the defense (and S/Ts) left a lot to be desired in those 6 games. Very up-and-down play on both offense & defense (INCONSISTENT?).
June 24th, 2026 at 5:35 am
Early in the year our offense wasn’t all that great, but we pulled off some Houdini stuff at the end of games to eke out a win at the last minute or two. When Baker was hurt and those last minute miracles weren’t in the hat anymore…not so much luck. I suppose the ability to snatch a last minute win helps the team’s record, but overall that offense wasn’t all that great.
June 24th, 2026 at 6:06 am
WBL. I don’t agree with you all the time. DR. I agree with you most of the time. But I don’t think you guys oughta be defending last year’s defense. It sends the wrong signal. That defense needed purged and plugged back in. I’m not defending the offense, or Mayfield. I’m just saying.
June 24th, 2026 at 6:24 am
Might as well throw another stat out there … Bucs only had one game where a running back ran for 110+ yards. Tucker ran for 106 in the 44-32 loss to Buffalo.
And this one … Bucs only won one game where Evans was the top receiver. He had a whopping 56 yards in the 20-19 win over Houston. He was the top receiver in only one other game, a 29-28 loss to the Falcons when had 132 receiving yards. (This, incidentally, is the real reason Evans left. Too many mouths to feed in Tampa and practically zero competition for targets in San Fran … looking to boost stats for yellow jacket).
June 24th, 2026 at 6:35 am
Kenton Smith … ‘But I don’t think you guys oughta be defending last year’s defense. It sends the wrong signal.’
Wasn’t really trying to defend the defense Kenton, but rather demonstrate that BOTH sides of the ball (and S/Ts) screwed the pooch last season. Offense’s problems IMO were a combination of excessive injuries & play-calling. Defense’s problems were a combination of lack of talent in certain positions & play-calling. But I do believe that you can’t paint a season with a broad brush; every game is different & you win or lose for different reasons.
June 24th, 2026 at 6:41 am
The entire team was an embarrassment last year. All the way up to Licht and Bowles. And to the Glazers for retaining The failure also known as Todd Bowles.
June 24th, 2026 at 7:36 am
The offense wasn’t the problem last year, it also wasn’t the answer. I have to believe even with all the injuries had Coen still been our OC with our offense in year two, we would’ve made the playoffs. You have to admit, Coen could’ve won us at least one more game, and that’s all it would’ve took. I hate this blame game between units, hell STs lost us two games. We weren’t good enough on all sides of the ball as a team. We were so bad as a team, we wanted Bowles gone. Glazers gave him a mully, changes were made, we’ll see what we got pretty soon.
June 24th, 2026 at 8:16 am
Don’t believe in a lot of stats because it doesn’t tell the whole story of a game or games. DR and others the way you have broken it down is a great way to look at the games under a microscope and determine the real cause and effect of why a game was won or lost and by which side of the ball. I mean how many fumbles has Baker had without being hit? How many did he lose? What was the outcome of the turnover? That’s just one stat to look at. When one looks at film you have to see who missed assignments that led to plays not working as intended, bad play calls, big plays that were let happen by the defense,{too many}. Where were the missed opportunities to convert to keep drives alive. What happened after we dropped a sure int, fumble recovery, or sack, tackle for loss? The whole team was a mess last year. Yeah 6-2 was great but I didn’t think it was solid 6-2 and was worried about the injuries piling up and just the way the ST and team over all looked. I didn’t expect the epic collapse but looking at all the why’s and where fors you get an idea. Always easier to look back but the thing is do you learn from the mistakes and not repeat them. I for one think the defense has not been addressed in the draft just because of the way the draft has played out with better offensive players being available.