“2026 Seems Like A Make-Or-Break Year”
January 31st, 2026
Where does he rank?
Joe has never seen anything like it. Or heard anything like it. Or read anything like it.
Yes, Joe knows that Bucs coach Todd Bowles is an unpopular coach with fans. Very unpopular.
Late in the season and immediately afterwards in Joe’s weekly in-season Todd Bowles Confidence Poll, Bowles had the worst numbers of any Bucs coach since Joe started in-season polls years ago.
Worse than lousy Lovie Smith. That’s hard to comprehend.
Turn on local sports talk radio, and if the subject discussed is the Bucs, it is a wall-to-wall tsunami of “Fire Todd Bowles” calls, even though Bowles is very secure until at least January 2027.
Damn near every post Joe publishes, that it turns into a “Fire Todd Bowles” screed in the comments, even if the subject has absolutely nothing to do with Bowles.
Joe’s “For You” TikTok feed is flooded with otherwise reasonable fans who cannot understand how Team Glazer kept Bowles on board.
Again, Joe has never seen a wave of disgust for a coach in the Tampa Bay area like this.
Follicly-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN decided to rank all the coaches hired in the NFL beginning in 2021. There, he has Bowles ranked No. 12 (right behind Liam Coen at No. 11). And while Barnwell confesses he’s a fan of Bowles, even Barnwell admitted he can sense how Tampa Bay area natives are restless, hoping someone can inspire change.
After the Bucs blew a 6-2 start to this season and missed the playoffs, though, Bowles has understandably faced some criticism. Tampa Bay fired offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard after one season, meaning Mayfield will have his fourth coordinator in four years with the Bucs. Bowles’ defenses have also struggled to live up to what they were doing while he was focusing exclusively on that side of the ball, as Tampa Bay has ranked 11th, 16th, 18th and most recently 16th in EPA per snap.
I still think Bowles is a good coach, and he has improved his late-game decision-making after being too conservative earlier in his tenure, but 2026 seems like a make-or-break year for his future in Tampa.
Joe really likes Bowles the person but Joe simply has a fundamental, foundational, core belief (that Joe will take to his grave) that a quarterback must fear having his ribcage caved in when he drops back to pass, specifically from an edge rusher. Bowles doesn’t believe that.
This always puzzled Joe because when Bowles had his best success as a Bucs defensive coordinator, he had two ferocious edge rushers, not just one. That is not a coincidence, boys and girls.
Yes, Al Davis’ famous line, “Somewhere, within the first 5-10 plays of the game, the quarterback must go down, and he must go down hard,” should be engraved on Joe’s tombstone. That’s basically Joe’s 11th Commandment.
While Barnwell may be right and Bowles may have improved as a head coach, Joe has learned, sadly, that whatever win total you think the Bucs should have in the preseason, subtract two because Bowles will find a way to blow two games with head-scratching in-game decisions like pulling the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands on a final drive or not going for two late in a one-point game on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs when your top-two receivers are hurt — or constantly banking on his defense to make a play in a tight game and get the ball back to the offense even though his defense is soft, vulnerable and way overrated, or deciding to play ground-and-pound in a key division game despite not having a decent run game and not throwing to perhaps the best foursome of receivers in the league.
Hopefully, everything clicks for Bowles this fall. Unfortunately, Joe doesn’t have a lot of confidence the stars will align like that.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:20 am
You are what your record says you are…
The Bucs and their head coach are slightly below average.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:25 am
He’s the ONLY coach in the entire NFL that doesn’t get fired after the great collapse of 25.
3rd and 28.
4th and 14.
F U Glazers/ Jason Licht and a big one to our HC/DC.
This entire organization should be blown up.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:30 am
Why would we expect anything different from Todd this coming season?
January 31st, 2026 at 8:32 am
In past seasons we have had a slump each year but pulled out of it to make the playoffs. After the 2024 season he made some changes that seemed to indicate that he might in fact be adapting as a coach. Then this year we started hot and then we never pulled out of the slump. We appeared to be going out each week and doing the same thing while expecting different results. His job as the HC is to correct course and make adjustments but he is incapable or refuses to make changes when it’s plain for all to see that changes need to be made.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:33 am
Here’s a very succinct answer for all of Bowles failures as a head coach which is the quote from new Ravens coach Jess Minter…” our team will play it’s best when the best is needed “. Bowles teams never do that!!! I could go on and on with numerous other issues with him but that quote says it all to me
January 31st, 2026 at 8:36 am
While Bowels deserves much of the criticism for this season we also need to blame Licht for his lack of action this past offseason and in season to improve the roster. I think that Licht needs to have a huge offseason to save himself from the chopping block if 2026 is bad.
They also need to sit BM if he is injured and save himself for games that mean more.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:38 am
Were there only 13 coaching changes? And, why the hate for Liam, Billy?
They want Todd to be successful. Nobody can make him successful.
Proof is out there; Todd simply cannot make player mix adjustments, scheme adjustments, or coaching adjustments, whether in game, across a month even or for the year.
Todd, quit losing the entire midyear for the next 5 straight seasons, the you will have ‘earned a legit discussion on this topic.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:38 am
Lol let me go ahead and spoil it for you…doing the same thing and expecting different results. What’s that commonly referred to as again?
January 31st, 2026 at 8:42 am
When Todd Bowles reaches a season that demands urgency, clarity, and nerve, he predictably retreats into caution and confusion. His history is a graveyard of moments where assertiveness was required and passivity prevailed, soft game management, defensive schemes that grow timid under scrutiny, and an instinct to protect his job rather than seize control of games. In a make-or-break year, Bowles won’t sharpen; he will shrink, and the margin between competence and collapse will swallow the Bucs team as a whole.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:43 am
It will be more of the same excuses, miscommunications, loafing, penalties, injuries and “having to coach it better”. Really hard to be a Bucs fan with Bowles as HC and DC.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:46 am
Wait and See I guess
January 31st, 2026 at 8:49 am
Any coach who would say that one of his starters gets “bored” needs another profession. I vote for used car salesman. TB a decent guy but a lousy HC. Don’t know how much more of watching his defense play paddy cake I can stand.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:51 am
Why do I keep getting put in Mod Jail?
No bad language
Only criticism is Bowles
January 31st, 2026 at 8:54 am
Dang it! I stopped reading the headlines, every time I see a toilet bowls pic, I just click on the article hoping to read that the fair and just event has occurred…alas
January 31st, 2026 at 8:56 am
I thought for sure he’d be gone if we didn’t win the division. I hope 2026 is not a waste of a season.
January 31st, 2026 at 8:59 am
Joe, Some Suggestions
1. Have a daily open thread for Bowles Haters to whine bitch and complain to their heart’s content.
2. Provide a Bowles Confidence Poll where posters can vote as many times as they wish. Just think…they could drive Bowles disapproval to 99.9999 %
3. Establish a paid hotline…..1-900-TODDOUT….It could offer counseling for those afflicted with BDS (Bowles Derangement Syndrome)
4. Set it up where anytime posters write Bowles it would be in BOLD print so that other posters could easily skip reading those posts.
5. Offer an entirely new website BBF (Bowles B*tch Fan)
January 31st, 2026 at 9:00 am
THe best defenses have a great four man rush that get to and cause rushed
decisions and poor execution from opposing QB’s. Todd is leaving too many holes
in the secondary with his exotic blitz package that has lost its effectiveness.
January 31st, 2026 at 9:00 am
“Again, Joe has never seen a wave of disgust for a coach in the Tampa Bay area like this.”
Love you Joe so I’ll try to help you understand the disgust. Where to start? I guess go back to Bowles days with the Jets. Average at best – that is being generous. Bowles comes to Tampa. His defense was dominant in the Superbowl against an beat up Chiefs offensive line. Bowles eeks out winning the crappy NFC South. Mismanages the clock constantly and plays not to loose weekly. At Carolina he goes vintage Bowles…he finally has his full complement of world beater wide receivers on the field. Bowles tell Grizz to just run the ball a lot. We all know that was to keep his gosh awful flailing defense off the field. Etc…Etc…Etc. Who would you rather get in a back alley fight with? Bowles or a dude like Dan Campbell?
January 31st, 2026 at 9:01 am
Problem is the Todd has been average or below with defense and he’ll go turtle with the offense because that’s who he is. If you want a coach that can make an 11 or 12 win team go 9-8,8-9 or 7-10 then he is definitely your guy! Other than when he was the DC and defense kicked KCs butt have you ever seen him out coach the other teams HC ???
January 31st, 2026 at 9:03 am
2025 should have been a make or break season. Think the Glazers gave Bowles a mulligan because of all the injuries. Even if Bowles improves as a DC, his chances of success are limited unless wholesale changes are made to the defense.
We are not just talking about one edge rusher.
January 31st, 2026 at 9:04 am
“Suckers, 2024 and 2025 should have been too. I have you right where I want you.” – Hugh
January 31st, 2026 at 9:08 am
For me, “2025 Was The Make-Or-Break Year”
January 31st, 2026 at 9:09 am
If they don’t hire a new DC and let Bowles play CEO, this D is doomed. The book is out on Todd’s D and teams have been exposing it when it matters most at the end of games. If he remains in charge of the D Bowles will need to start from scratch with a new concept, perhaps a 4-3. The time is now for an overhaul philosophically. Let’s go Todd, show us some innovation. Take it on as a challenge and go out the way you came into the league with a respectable, innovative and ferocious D. Find the common denominators of how teams expose you and eliminate them. Lfg Todd!
January 31st, 2026 at 9:31 am
At best Bowles should be a corneback coach in this league in my opinion. Has he improved anyone’s skill set as a player, regardless what LVD may say. I think he probably has retarded players growth but who am I to say. I just can look at the results and he scores a D- as a DC and maybe a C as a HC since assuming both roles.
January 31st, 2026 at 9:32 am
Morning joe. I’ve dropped my comment(s) regularly for several years now. In fact I go on record making my prediction for the bucs record prior to the season. Joe will notice that my comments stopped shortly around game eight or game 10. I doub seriously if I will make another comment until Bowles is no longer the head coach. I do not like calling for someone’s job. In this case it’s glaringly obvious that Bowels defensive ideology and scheme are not winning formulas. In my 61 years of life I have never seen any coach get lit up by as many rookie or unknown quarterbacks as this man’s defense have over the years. To me it got to where if we faced a second string quarterback or a rookie or an unknown then that particular quarterback would have career days. I would bet if Joe would go back and do the research he would find out that Todd Bowels defenses have lost to more rookie quarterbacks than any other defensive coordinator in NFL history. To be a good leader you have to be open to change. You have to look yourself in the mirror and change if necessary. This man is very hard-headed and he has to prove that his defense works—- Yes his defense is work to give opposing quarterbacks huge contract extensions…
Sorry Joe. I’ll stop in regularly as I do and keep up with my Bucs news yet I doubt seriously if I’ll make another comment until I see real change in Tampa. And making such a commitment truly hurts me to the heart… Thanks Joe for your informative covering of this team and I hope to be back as a regular commenter in the future….take care
January 31st, 2026 at 9:33 am
Seems like Todd Bowles wasn’t nearly that disliked when the bucs were 3-1 then 6-2 at the start of this past season. Actually seems like JBF’s confidence polls showed him hovering around 90% Confident or Very Confident (close to a Likeability poll). IOW, all you have to do is win baby and the world will tolerate any of your foibles. But lose and you’re toast.
What’s amazed me throughout this past 2 years is that Jason Licht has escaped relatively unscathed when the reality IMO is that our defense is ‘poorly stocked with starting talent’ and the entire team lacks DEPTH. Seems to me that if Todd Bowles is ‘guilty’ of not being able to satisfactorily adjust his defensive scheme to fit the talent level, then Jason Licht should be just as guilty of not supplying an adequate level of talent. Talent & scheme IMO go hand-in-hand.
January 31st, 2026 at 9:34 am
Yea because ppl dont really watch the games they just see the score, we that were paying attention saw this coming.
January 31st, 2026 at 9:44 am
I am resigned to the fact Todd is our DC next year, no point in belaboring THAT. Moving forward, I HAVE to believe his defensive scheme would work with the correct personnel in place–TWO ILB’s who can cover TE’s and RB’s, TWO edges who can get home. Sadly, we haven’t had that since JPP blew out his shoulder halfway thru ’21.
Jason HAS to fix this
January 31st, 2026 at 9:47 am
Andy Reid. John Harbaugh. Dan Campbell. Didn’t make the playoffs last season. Neither did Todd Bowles. Oh well. Shlt happens. I believe that’s the first time since Bowles has been Bucs head coach that he’s missed the playoffs. I have to agree with DR on this one but we need more talent on the defense. Bowles and Licht spent their shells on offense and nobody could have seen the injury bug that plagued us. He deserved another year. He and Baker will be gone soon enough if they have another year like last year. But he’s right. He earned another chance.
January 31st, 2026 at 9:54 am
That’s what I commented on a couple of times, the subject can be about the combine or Senior bowl and several people will chime in about fire Bowles or he’s the worst coach in the league. As I’ve said many times, if owners were to only listen to the fan base, they would be replacing HC every 2 years.
January 31st, 2026 at 9:54 am
Fire Todd Bowles. There, had to get it in this string of comments, even though as you say Joe, it’s not happening until at least January 2027.
January 31st, 2026 at 9:59 am
JoeBucsFan.com said:
“When Bowles had his best success as a defensive coordinator with the Bucs, he had two ferocious edge rushers, not just one. That is not a coincidence, boys and girls.”
Joe, I was reading the YaYa Diaby post earlier this morning and thinking the same thing.
It’s not rocket-science; it’s actually pretty simple to figure out, lol.
Our entire defense, and YaYa in particular, would perform better if we had two solid edge rushers that were able to consistently get to the QB, because the defensive plays were consistently schemed to have them do just that.
The only thing I can figure is Bruce Arians and/or Jason Licht told Todd in no uncertain terms that they wanted the defensive plays schemed in a way that consistently had JPP and Shaq rushing the passer. No exceptions.
Interesting how the edge rush pretty much completely went away when Todd took over as HC…
Your paragraph about subtracting two wins from whatever you think the team will do that year, also nailed it.
I’ve been silently squawking to myself about those examples (and many others) for the past couple of years.
I personally don’t see any reason to call for Todd to be fired every time I comment. (Although I do think the Glazers should have let him go and still should.)
We’re stuck with him like it or not, for at least the next season.
*Sigh*…
January 31st, 2026 at 10:01 am
If Bowles was the DC only and someone else was HC, he would have been fired. Well when your HC is also your DC, it doesn’t really work to fire him from his DC role and retain as HC. IT has to be his decision to replace himself in that role. The fact that he refuses to do so is the biggest reason he should be fired as the HC.
Since I do not know Bowles, I cannot say what kind of person he is. But his professional life is very much exposed to the public and reveals character flaws: refusal to admit mistakes, inability to correct mistake, places blame elsewhere, makes others scapegoats, lacks courage to be a stand up guy, etc., etc.
January 31st, 2026 at 10:04 am
Jason’s failures:
JTS: Next Gen Stats draft rating: 76 (10th best edge)
Logan Hall: Next Gen Stats draft rating: 77 (12th best of DE/edge)
Chris Braswell: Next Gen Stats draft rating: 77 (5th best in DE/edge)
Where did Jason go wrong here? They simply all don’t work out
January 31st, 2026 at 10:06 am
Ocala – I just read your post. I hope you will change your mind and continue to share comments. You are a voice of reason.
January 31st, 2026 at 10:11 am
2025 should have been make or break tear which he failed horrifically in grand fashion and still kept his job .. Much, MUCH better coaches were fired for less by good team owners who want to win and win often …. Unfortunately we get a team that would rather be somewhat political!….
January 31st, 2026 at 10:13 am
Bowles gets the most hatred of any Bucs coach because he didn’t even earn the job. It was handed to him. And he stinks. What’s clear to me is that he comes up with a new gameplan each season. Kudos to him. It works for the first few weeks. Then comes the mid-season swoon. That swoon is the rest of the league having figured out his new approach for the season. After that, he can’t adjust. His brain moves so slow, not only can he not adjust mid-game, he can’t adjust mid-season! Think about that. And then yes, his calling card is “defensive genius” but there is absolutely nothing about his defense that scares opponents or inspires confidence in fans. In summary, the job was handed to him, he has nothing going for him, he can’t adjust, and his “calling card” is for defensive mastery that doesn’t exist. There is literally nothing to like here. Nothing to say ‘well at least he does X well.”
January 31st, 2026 at 10:14 am
Again, the loss of our 2 starting guards for the rest of the season destroyed this team, not Todd. That resulted in relentless pressure on Baker to make plays in .1 seconds.
January 31st, 2026 at 10:21 am
Special Teams was full guys making business decisions.
Braswell= soft and useless on special teams
Culp=can’t tackle. Useless on special teams.
Jones= awful on special teams.
Tucker=awful on special teams. Cant tackle.
Watts=stiff and rigid. Useless on special teams.
We had the worst special teams I’ve ever seen.
Hopefully. Danny Smith will get some guys who can tackle and block on special teams.
January 31st, 2026 at 10:24 am
They need Rampage Jackson on the defensive staff.
January 31st, 2026 at 10:26 am
The 49ers backup front 7 was better than our starting front 7.
Saleh is a great coach. “Fast and Violent”
Our front 7?
Weak and soft.
Hall=not even half as good as Gholston was.
Gaines=5-11. We need a 6-5 DT to replace him.
SVD=put him back on special teams only!
LVD=only as our #2 MLB. No longer a #1 MLB.
Reddick=2.5 sacks? We need a 7-10 sack guy at OLB.
Safeties? I’m okay with our safeties.
Corners? I’m okay with our corners for 1 more year.
Re-sign Dean for 2 more on the cheap.
We need front 7 help.
January 31st, 2026 at 10:54 am
Ridiculous comment Joe! They have drafted JTS, Braswell, YaYa, and brought in Reddick as a FA. Bowles knows a lot more about football than you and you can bet your a$$ he is desperate to find an edge rusher. They are hard to come by and the good ones aren’t falling into the 20s in the first round of the draft. Suc a dumb comment to say he doesn’t care about getting an edge rusher.
January 31st, 2026 at 11:00 am
Bowles and Licht are joined at the hip. Bowles is getting all the heat for obvious reasons but Licht is just as responsible for the mediocrity. The defense has a woeful lack of talent. For all Jason’s love for draft picks, he has done a terrible job of restocking the defense with quality players. Pick after pick has been average at best or an outright bust the last 6 or 7 years. Vea and AWJ are the only notable players on D. There are couple of young guys who may develop but overall this group is in the lower half of the league. Notable busts like JTS, Hall, Kancey, Hargreaves have all contributed to the decline along with few later round picks developing into high value NFL starters. Licht and Bowles picked this team together and have equal blame for the results. A new HC could quickly inject some new life and energy.
Licht has to be on the hot seat too. There are too many bad picks and overpaid vets that are JL’s responsibility. There is also the lack of activity during FA period and at the trade deadline. Glazers are too conservative to dump both together is my guess. Hopefully, they get the message something needs to be done. One or both or these guys needs to be canned to get us out of the rut. A few more good NFL players would help too.
January 31st, 2026 at 11:02 am
Joe, I really don’t care to hear about how nice of a guy Todd Bowels is. Why even mention it/ If you knew me well I think you would judge me a nice guy. What relevance is that to coaching an NFL team? Answer = none!
It boils my gonads to hear TV guys repeatedly praise Bowels for his defensive skills. The Glaziers must make decisions based on what Troy Ackman says.
I’m with John Ocala. I’ll check in every day, and when I see an article on Todd Bowels I’ll pause to read it in hopes that his demise is coming. Other than that, so long.
Thanks Glaziers.