Stunning Stat Explains How Broken Bucs Are
December 13th, 2025
Todd Bowles
Said here many times has been the following about the sorry Bucs defense, “Joe doesn’t know how you fix a defense in December.”
And here is some intel explaining why this Bucs defense is nearly unfixable without the aid of a trade.
For Joe, one of the dumbest stats ever been hatched was “win probability.” Who gives a flying F? A game isn’t over until the buzzer sounds.
Joe started seeing this nonsense a couple of years ago — peddled by BSPN, naturally. But Joe came across an item on NFL.com that uses win probability to demonstrate just how badly the Bucs’ defense is broken.
Next Gen Stats Insight for Falcons-Buccaneers (via NFL Pro): The Falcons’ win probability was as low as 4.8% with 13:29 left in the fourth quarter (trailing 28-14) in their 29-28 comeback win over the Buccaneers.
Joe doesn’t know what to add. But when the head coach is also the defensive coordinator of such an outfit, there’s no escape.
And it’s not like the Bucs defense has been dominant since Todd Bowles came to town, though it’s had excellent games and stretches. Only once since the start of the 2019 season has the Bucs’ passing defense not been ranked in the 20s.
Now you have a defense that cannot be trusted with holding a two-score lead with only a few minutes to play at home. And the run defense has fallen off.
Dark defensive times in Tampa Bay. Again.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:11 am
Brokeback Bucs
December 13th, 2025 at 10:12 am
When Jamel Dean goes out, our pass defense has absolutely no chance of stopping anybody.
It’s weird.
But we definitely need to re-sign Dean (again).
He’s our best secondary player by far.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:13 am
I found myself envious of the Falcons pass rush many times watching them collapse the pocket over and over again against the Bucs.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:15 am
Joes,
Of course you are correct, but there are a lot here who will blame everyone other than the defense. The defense isn’t even up to small college standards. While Bucs receivers rarely get separation, opponents receivers are surrounded in all directions by 7yards of open space. Things will change next year. Everyone has seen enough.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:16 am
I would be willing to wager that the Glazers do not fully realize the pivotal nature of the task they are facing this off-season. Releasing good man, bad coach, Todd Bowles is the easy part. No time to contemplate the complexities. Already…
The Glazers are on the clock.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:19 am
We’ve been saying this for a while: No pass rush, soft zones and no killer instincts. Yet the Bucs keep trying the same things over and over.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:27 am
Who are the top coaching candidates this offseason?
December 13th, 2025 at 10:32 am
This team has been basically broke all year. Tired of hearing how we started 5-1
Week 1 we beat Atlanta 23-20
Week 2 we beat Houston 20-19
Week 3 we beat The NY Jets 29-27
Not exactly anyone’s definition of a powerhouse… They were winning by smoke and mirrors. Could care less if Todd is a good man he’s a terrible head coach… Period.
It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they excuse another train wreck season and hide behind injuries and bad luck. Maybe force him to hire a DC… Don’t care… Too late !!!
Fire Todd or continue seeing fans defect… I already watched more Jaguars games this year than I have in their entire existence. They are fun to watch and have a up and coming coach. Wish we could find a coach like that.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:33 am
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Time to move on from Bowles and make some necessary changes.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:35 am
It’s simply inexcusable for this to happen. Heads need to roll and while I like Licht, history proves he cannot pick a head coach to save his rear end. Outside of Arians (teamed up with Brady), Licht hasn’t had a good track record in picking winners.
I think the Glazers give him one more chance to make the right pick at head coach, but I would have to think his leash is small, too. Dude has been here for too many years and has gone through too many head coaches. This next head coach will be number 5 for Licht 😳
December 13th, 2025 at 10:36 am
At some point Jason Licht needs to be held accountable as well due to the friction that has occurred in the locker room. He’s the one who assembled this team.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:48 am
That’s not a stat it’s a projected probability, which is not real but a guess. When life is involved anything can happen
December 13th, 2025 at 10:49 am
This squad has a severe lack of talent along the Dline and at edge rusher and at LB(Vita Vea excluded). Jason Licht could have made a move or two at the trade deadline to shore up some of the leaks , but Licht said nope we are good.
DOES IT LOOK GOOD TO YOU JASON LICHT???????????
Losing the division should get em all run including Licht and Baker.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:54 am
At this point our “Ring of Honor” GM needs to be put on the hot seat as well.
He waited until last week to address the worst pass rush in the NFL.
His solution? Old arse broken down 36 year old JPP who hasn’t played in two seasons…
Are you freaking kidding me?
What a JOKE!!!
I’m actually fine with Licht being shown the door as well.
Look at his drafts since 2019.
I’m not impressed.
A monkey with a dart board could do just as well.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:56 am
Chukwuma got better and better each quarter.
Why won’t they put Wirfs at LG and keep Chukwuma at LT?
The interior of our offensive line is AWFUL.
Wirfs next to Barton? There’s no way anybody is breaking through.
And Wirfs will make holes. And Wirfs can pull.
Chukwuma is nasty and super fast.
Keep him on the field!!!
December 13th, 2025 at 11:03 am
Bowles and LICHT must Go. Set it off Glazers. Give us Buc fans some hope for next year.
December 13th, 2025 at 11:03 am
Wirfs at LT, Barton at LG and bredeson at C.
December 13th, 2025 at 11:05 am
Bredeson is out for the year.
December 13th, 2025 at 11:05 am
Joe please lets move on from the debacle and pick the best coaching staff then you can get Ira to give the list to Ronde to give to the Glazers. I nominate Todd Monken for head coach.
December 13th, 2025 at 11:18 am
Bayou bullet said this:”Fire Todd or continue seeing fans defect… I already watched more Jaguars games this year than I have in their entire existence. They are fun to watch and have a up and coming coach. Wish we could find a coach like that.” lol no doubt, agree completely. Watching Jags with coach Coen is our future. If Bowles stays I am going on a Bucs hiatus until the ownership gets off their fat asses and fire him once and for all.
December 13th, 2025 at 11:32 am
Todd Bowles has figured out ways to lose games which no other coach could manage to lose. Cleveland with Brady comes to mind, choosing not to go for a 2 point conversion in KC last year also comes to mind, the embarrassing loss to the Texans a couple of seasons back, etc. etc. The Glazers may not want to admit they made a mistake last January with Coen and he did go behind their back, but looking at how he has energized he Jags and then you look at how deflated the Bucs are under Bowles and they will have to owe up to making a mistake with Bowles and simply move on. Target Monken, Kubiak in Seattle or LaFleur with Rams. Granted they will have to overpay to outbid the Falcons and the Giants but if the Glazers sincerely want to wash the stench of Bowles losing attitude out of Tampa, it will cost them some coin.
December 13th, 2025 at 11:54 am
I wouldn’t watch El serpiente if my life depended on it
He is a big reason we are in this pickle. Losing two OCs in two years and the last one behaved like a big jerk. no thanks.
But I do hope we get a better OC and a better HC.
December 13th, 2025 at 12:02 pm
No playmakers on this D that we can count on in crunchtime. Period. No sackmaster, no top corner. No safety that will make a big hit for a stop or fumble AT crunchtime CONSISTENTLY. FIX IT LICHT!.
BUT….3rd and 28 to 4th and 14, there’s NO WAY any D should give up the 1st down in crunch time. NO WAY.
December 13th, 2025 at 12:39 pm
Bowels and his staff need to go. We need an up and coming offensive mind and not some damn retread.
December 13th, 2025 at 12:55 pm
This is great for opposing teams they’ll be able to come to Tampa and enjoy watching their team win next year as the Bucks fans continue to diminish we’ve been broke all year we will lose the next three games fire everyone and then rebuild from scratch Bank it
December 13th, 2025 at 2:45 pm
Good isNOT a good coach
December 13th, 2025 at 3:02 pm
You talk about an angle. Only talking about the pass defense numbers when the rushing defense been top 10 for most of the same duration is crazy misleading
December 13th, 2025 at 6:35 pm
Todd, your little statement about BM6 running tells everyone all we need to know about you whiney little girls. BM6 don’t run and you are so dense you don’t know it after all this time. Like everything else about this team, you people know nothing.
December 13th, 2025 at 10:09 pm
LvD was great player but his pass rush opportunities should have been given to sirvocea who is the better pass rusher. He also retarded Voss ability to lead
December 13th, 2025 at 11:40 pm
I have said it over and over and will say it one more time….If the Bucs could rush the passer and pressure the QB, most of these collapses would not happen. There is simply no way we can defend anyone without applying pressure to the QB and sacking him. We rarely get anywhere near the QB and he can just pick our soft zone coverage apart, anyone could. You cannot play this type of defense without a very good defensive line and ours is not good at all.