When Todd Bowles Went ESPN Analytics
November 26th, 2025
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
It’s a running joke for Joe because it is comical.
Joe watches a lot of football, often squeezing in four games on a Saturday. That’s not counting Monday, Thursday and Friday nights (oh yeah, and when the MAC and Conference USA play on Tuesday and Wednesday nights). If Joe’s not otherwise occupied covering the Bucs in some way, it is a very, very good bet Joe’s watching football.
As a result, Joe watches a fair share of games on ABC/BSPN. Last football season, Joe began to hear announcers say when a team was facing fourth down, “ESPN Analytics say ‘Go for it.'”
It’s gotten to a point where Joe may hear this a half-dozen times a game. Doesn’t matter the down, distance, time of the game, yard line… none of that. It’s always “ESPN Analytics say ‘Go for it.'”
Except once.
Just once in the past two seasons has Joe heard an announcer say, “ESPN Analytics say ‘Punt.'” Once. In nearly two full seasons of football.
Joe swears it could be fourth-and-40 from a team’s own-10 and Joe would hear “ESPN Analytics say ‘Go for it.'” Zero context given. Zero consequences weighed or debated. Just blindly slam into a brick wall and to hell with consequences.
It might cost a team a bowl game or a playoff berth or an undefeated season. Might cost a coach his job or his assistants their jobs or livelihoods. Doesn’t matter. Just “Go for it!”
It’s like teaching your kid to drive and when he pulls up to a stop sign at the intersection of a busy highway, scream at him to stomp on the gas pedal without checking for traffic.
Just “Go for it!”
Well, even though Sunday’s debacle in Los Angeles was an NBC broadcast, Joe swears “ESPN Analytics say ‘Go for it'” was ringing in Todd Bowles’ head.
The Bucs’ head coach, seeing his defense getting throttled (again) by a stud quarterback, decided to tap into ESPN Analytics.
Down 28-7, with 1:48 left in the first half, Bowles decided to go for it. The pass to Sterling Shepard failed and the Rams took over with a layup chance for points. They kicked a field goal after the Bucs’ defense finally found a pair.
Joe was up in the press box and completely in shock. Joe thought Bowles gave the game away at that point. Sure, 28-7 is tough to overcome. But just a few hours earlier, Dallas rallied from a 20-point deficit to beat Philadelphia.
Difficult to overcome a three-touchdown deficit? Certainly. Impossible? No.
Joe could see Bowles or any team trying to convert a fourth down deep in their own territory, trailing by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. But with nearly two minutes left in the first half? Sort of early to give up, wasn’t it?
Joe was in the Buc’s locker room after the game and didn’t get a chance to ask Bowles about this on Sunday night but Joe did have a chance to ask today. Here was Bowles’ answer to why he pulled such a rash, perhaps reckless move (some say a white flag moment):
“Because we were down a great deal,” Bowles said. “We wanted to get something going.
“And fourth and two, we wanted to get some points on the board.”
Joe gets trying to jump-start the offense. But there were less risky ways to get something going.
Would it have somehow been against California state law to run a two-minute offense to get a spark? Joe guesses that would have worked just as well as those waste-of-time wide receiver screens to the sideline for two yards.
The week before in Buffalo, when Bowles’ offense was moving the ball with a powerful run game, Bowles did not go for it on fourth-and-two from the Bucs-39 with the Bucs trailing by five midway through the fourth quarter.
Like in Los Angeles facing Matt Stafford, the Bucs had no prayer slowing down Josh Allen in Buffalo. So punting there in Buffalo basically gave the game away. Everyone watching saw it and knew it but Bowles, it seemed.
Then he goes for it against Los Angeles in the second quarter down 21 from the Bucs-28?
Itjust confuses Joe how Bowles wouldn’t try a fourth-down conversion with the game on the line in Buffalo when the Bucs had a strong advantage, then a week later, he tries a fourth-down conversion in the second quarter where the downside is basically conceding a loss before halftime.
November 26th, 2025 at 6:27 pm
If you can’t trust your vaunted offense to get 2 yards something is wrong. Against Buffalo we could easily have ran it. Not sure I trust these receivers to get open though against the Rams. Not a good track record at that point. Ya gotta take into consideration how the offense is playing.
November 26th, 2025 at 6:31 pm
Time to jump on TB now that we’re losing and playing crappy. It’s the same TB when we win, lose. He ain’t changing. Get use to it.
November 26th, 2025 at 6:32 pm
And punting it back to them, when they were also going to get the ball to start the second half, wouldn’t have been conceding a loss? They needed to score before half time to give themselves a chance rather than going four scores down. Just because Bowles made a mistake against Buffalo doesn’t mean he was wrong on this occasion.
November 26th, 2025 at 6:52 pm
Todd Bowles — “YOU LIKE THAT!!!”
November 26th, 2025 at 6:54 pm
Rams were up 31-7 at the half, and could’ve laid another 31 pts on us if they’ve pushed. But they didn’t, and only ended up scoring 1 FG in the 2nd half.
Bottom line Joe: That decision to ‘go for it’ didn’t make a pee hole in the snow difference. Rams are a significantly better team offensiely & defensively. Bucs got pummeled and the Rams stole our lunch money. Sometimes it sucks to be us; Sunday was one of those days.
November 26th, 2025 at 6:55 pm
The more we go through what a football season brings-the less I think of Bowles and feel that he’s hit ceiling with his coaching ability. His game management is awful and that Putrid Pass Defense year after year is punishing. It’s time.
November 26th, 2025 at 6:59 pm
Bowles and analytics should never be mentioned together
November 26th, 2025 at 7:00 pm
Here’s what frustrates me the most though with these 3rd & shorts, 4th & shorts that we’ve had the last couple games. They’re almost always doing the play out of shotgun and its pretty much always a pass.
The analytics are what they are in those situations, but you’d better know on that 3rd down whether or not your going for it on 4th down and act accordingly.
When its nut cutting time, Bowles hides in the corner.
November 26th, 2025 at 7:01 pm
Why in the world does this matter at all? The Bucs got smoked!
I have no problem with them going for it, analytics of not, because the Bucs defense wasn’t stopping anything. At that point, the Bucs best defense was their offense keeping the ball. Do you really think if the Bucs punted that the Rams weren’t going to still move the ball downfield in two plays and be in field goal range?
All that said, I hate this analytics cr@p. The numbers geeks don’t take into account matchups, what one teams is good at vs. the other team’s strengths, field position, time in the game … Nothing. It’s just raw data statistically derived from many games that many other teams have played. It’s averages and averages aren’t the same as real game situations and matchups. Coaches should flush this analytics where they read the paper every morning, it’s just as meaningful.
November 26th, 2025 at 7:02 pm
Really Joe??? Are you that shocked by Bowles decisions anymore??
This is year four of the same groundhogs day routine.
Start off with a few wins, long sustained losing streak, play several weak teams at the end to sneak into the playoffs, lose in the playoffs against every good team.
Then make excuses and just say: “Gotta get better”. – Toad Bowels
November 26th, 2025 at 7:03 pm
I don’t know Joe. Desperate measures for desperate times. The Bucs were definitely desperate Sunday night . Yes may have been some panic too. In that game I don’t think it would have changed anything. It is nice to think they were going to make a come back like Dallas. However, let ‘s be honest , the only way that was going to happen was if the Rams were to pull all their starters and rested the first unit.
Who knows if the Bucs punted there maybe the Rams march down the field and score 7 before the half.
The Buffalo game maybe it made a difference, who knows. However I don’t think the Bucs defense was going to contain Allen until the clock ran out
Either way those games were embarrassing losses and are behind us. There is no sense beating a dead horse. I am not sure they can beat the Cardinals are you?
November 26th, 2025 at 7:08 pm
It’s Grizzzzzz time ,, remember he is also learning on the fly ,,, like Canalles , Grizz has never called plays so there is a learning curve ,,, Coen has called a lot of plays before the Bucs so he looked more polished
November 26th, 2025 at 7:14 pm
@joe Im just glad we don’t play on Thanksgiving Bowked doesn’t have the chance to ruin my dinner
November 26th, 2025 at 7:15 pm
*so Bowles
November 26th, 2025 at 7:24 pm
Ira, I understand the balance between relationship and candor. Are you sold out? Todd is not getting the job done. You are the Sage, speak the truth. Todd has lost this team. Can you say it??
Steve, you are the glue for this podcast. You have to manage Ira’s earned status and balance respect for Ira and what the truth is. Lee, you are the ankle biter. I respect Ira, however be honest…please
?? Ira speaks the truth. We all do. You may not like everyone’s truth, but noboby’s sold out and crafting answers. Ira doesn’t have to believe the team is lost under the head coach at 6-5. Joe tells no fan how to be a fan, and that same respect should be afforded to Ira. –Joe
November 26th, 2025 at 7:29 pm
Let’s face the facts. He’s supposed to be a defensive guru. Yet since 2022 when he was anointed the HC/DC job his defense has been off the charts bad. Like historic bad. Whats to defend here? He’s shooting for losing 4 games in a row for the third seasonin a row plus you can throw in
November 26th, 2025 at 7:30 pm
His record after bye weeks, his prime time record, etc etc.
November 26th, 2025 at 7:30 pm
Didn’t matter game was over. Rams coulda dropped 70 if they wanted. Bowles defense is done….again
November 26th, 2025 at 7:32 pm
It goes on and on. He’ll continue to provide evidence of his inadequacies as a quality competent NFL HC.
November 26th, 2025 at 7:32 pm
t was a mercy signal that both coaches acknowledged by going for it on fourth down. We are going for it on fourth here, if we don’t get it, take your foot off the gas and spare further humiliation. The rest of the game was just scrimmage time.
November 26th, 2025 at 7:34 pm
It’s pretty bad when you know the Rams let off the gas in the game 🎮………..
I think all serious Bucs Fans are tired of seeing this repeat of bad defense every season
November 26th, 2025 at 7:35 pm
100% the correct call to go for it. Who in the world thinks the defense is getting a stop? If they don’t – then the Rams just use up the entire clock and at the very least kick a FG, if not get a TD. If you go for it, and don’t get it, you either hold them to a FG, or even give up a TD, but with enough time to get the ball back and score yourself. Also, as a reminder, you’re down 28-7 and the Rams get the ball to start the 3rd, the game is over if you can’t score. There is no choice but to go for it there, the gutless thing to do would be to punt. The fact you all have an issue with this is utter nonsense.
The absolutely terrible call of the game was punting from the Rams 42 on the opening drive. Every kicker is making 60-yarders, and you’re indoors, and your defense can’t stop anything, and you punt the ball – don’t go for it, don’t kick the FG, but instead punt, and of course 3 plays later they got the ball out past the 42. That’s stupid, and gutless.
That’s the issue with Bowles, he’s so inconsistent with his calls, and always seems to make the wrong one.
November 26th, 2025 at 8:37 pm
100% the wrong call to go for it. 2nd Qtr? Total surrender. Coach had as bad a game as I’ve seen him have. Puzzling to me how after that pick 6 that the play wasn’t examined more closely. Bowles should have thrown that red flag and that was a mistake. The first drive I agree with Rod which I usually wouldn’t do. But that’s because I think Chase is as likely to make a 60 yarder as he is to make a 40 yarder.