Takeaways And Luck
October 27th, 2025
Talking takeaways.
Later this week Joe will share a few discussions with Bucs defenders Joe had on the subject of takeaways.
Joe has long been skeptical of the extreme emphasis on takeaways. Still is. Are they good? No doubt! But Joe has always maintained takeaways are more luck than skill.
Rather than obsessing over takeaways, Joe always hoped defensive coordinators would stress just as much the beauty of three-and-outs. Tackle. Get a sack. Force a punt.
Defenders are much more in control of those things than takeaways, which Joe regards as being akin to accidents.
Today, Bucs coach Todd Bowles all but admitted takeaways are unpredictable and basically luck.
“We practice it all the time,” Bowles said of takeaways. “They come in bunches. I can’t tell you that there is one thing we do differently that we have not been doing.
“I have been around when we practiced it daily every day and did everything we could and we got none, and I have been around when we hardly practiced it, and we got a bunch of them.
“They come in bunches, and the guys start seeing it and they feed off of it and we just have to keep that going.”
Look, Joe thought it was awesome how the Bucs got so many takeaways from the slimy Saints yesterday. Takeaways are good. But when you can’t get takeaways and the opposing offense is gouging the defense and running up and down the field, well, that surely isn’t good.
You know, lousy Lovie Smith defense?
Play good, strong, fundamental football and the takeaways will come. Punts are turnovers too.
October 27th, 2025 at 3:29 pm
Takaways are only sometimes luck….usually it’s taking advantage of poor play from the opponent…….
In particular, it’s catching the interception instead of dropping it.
October 27th, 2025 at 3:33 pm
Most the Bucs turnovers came from good coverage and a good pressure scheme. More repeatable than the ball squirting out of the QBs hand untouched.
Although we have seen the defense play somewhat well and fall on the other side of the TO luck coin.
October 27th, 2025 at 3:37 pm
Takeaways usually come from pressure on the quarterback, lately we have actually been getting that
October 27th, 2025 at 3:49 pm
Bucs are 4th in turnover margin (+7) , and T-3rd in takeaways (12). Last season? T-23rd ( -5) and 16th (18), respectively. FWIW.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:00 pm
Turnover differential is absolutely a stat that matters and I absolutely love that we’re becoming a big play, takeaway hungry defense.
Defense and particularly takeaways is kinda the only bright spot, along with Tez for the moment.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:03 pm
I think turnovers are more than luck. Detroit was very aggressive and effective at punching out the ball to create turnovers. So there is a skill involved that has to be taught and being good at it leads to more turnovers.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:05 pm
Joe just because Bowles has talked about takeaways, which mostly leads to points for the takeaway team doesn’t mean he’s not focused on solid defensive play and wants the 3 and outs. Hell, all of us want that every time the D is on the field but it’s just not realistic. And to your point sacks do make it harder for the opposing team to sustain drives but how many times have we seen a sack early on downs only to see it be chipped away to a first down? Sacks are only as good as the defense sustains them to be, keeping them bottled up. A turn over instantly changes field position. We want both of them to be sure, no doubt but coachs always, and for good reason talk about 2 major things in their favor at the end of the year.
1 Health
2 Turnovers.
Those 2 are the main contributing factors for a teams success at the end of the season. Hell, look at the Colts, who are they missing? NO ONE. That there shows the reason for their success, so far. Or at least one of the 2 main reasons. That’s why we were thought of so highly was because of the talent on the offense but where is it now? We will be fine as I see the D trending up and the O will get there through the injuries so there is a lot to look forward to.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:08 pm
its not luck. its opportunity and you have to be ready for it. what do you mean takeaways? like ball punching and stripping like what awj did yesterday? those takeaways had nothing to do with luck. when the qb doesnt see you and throws it right at you? well you better be able to catch not bobble. those are all fundamentals for football, catching passes isnt just for offensive players.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:10 pm
You can’t predict takeaways, there’s too much variance. But through skill and technique you can drastically increase your chances of getting them.
For the last two seasons the Bucs have been one of the best in the NFL at the punch out and ball strip moves defenders make to force fumbles. Doesn’t always work, but it works better for them than most teams. And the Bucs are heavier on the plus + turnover side of things because of it.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:13 pm
With you Joe. 100%.
At least it seems like the return of Lovie style defense took a detour for now. Good thing since deer in the headlights Grizzard got the wrong files, and instead of using Coen’s offense as a base, he’s using Leftwurst’s.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:19 pm
Idk about luck, the two INTs alone were dynamite individual efforts by Tweeze & Nelly respectively.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:21 pm
And to add it drives me nut’s when I see open guys catching balls over the middle of the field and those sacks turned into 1st downs and drives down the field, especially after backing them up, but I would rather see them drive between the 20″s and try FG’s instead of putting the ball in the end zone. That’s what the old Buc’s D did.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:23 pm
Takeaways have some luck involved—like every aspect of football—but they’re dramatically influenced by coaching, technique, scheme, and talent. The statistical evidence is overwhelming: certain players, coaches, and systems consistently generate more turnovers over a large sample size
That’s literally the definition of skill, not luck.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:28 pm
Yes, some takeaways involve lucky bounces.
But many are:
Forced fumbles from specific techniques (Peanut Punch)
Tipped passes from pressure and coverage disguises
“BAITED” throws from QBs making the wrong read
Strips after catch from pursuit and tackling technique
Calling these “accidents” is like calling a chess trap “luck” because your opponent fell for it.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:28 pm
I suspect you’re right Joe, that there’s a certain amount of luck involved in generating turnovers. I also believe though that good teams make their own luck. Strip sacks for instance are the result of a great push rush getting there before the QB even knows what’s happened. Pick 6’s more times than not are the result of a defender playing his position perfectly & stepping in front of the guy he’s defending just at the right moment to intercept & take it to the house.
Would love to see that winning teams should always have a positive Turnover Margin, but that’s often not the case. Look at this year’s teams with the better records, and most of them currently have a negative Turnover Margin. Bizarre. And some teams (like the Saints) with their 1-8 record have a positive Turnover Margin. Yup, bizarre.
What’s helped the Bucs this season is not just that we have a +7 Turnover Margin, but also that we’ve played some pretty good Complementary Football & taken advantage of those turnovers. Bucs’ offense has scored 26 points off 10 takeaways (2 TD & 4 FG) & our defense has added 16 more points from 2 Pick-6 & a safety. And on our 5 giveaways, opponents have only scored 7 points (1 TD). 42 points vs 7 is a pretty nice ratio.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:29 pm
If takeaways were truly luck:
Ed Reed wouldn’t have 64 career INTs
Charles Woodson wouldn’t have 65 INTs + 33 forced fumbles
Certain schemes wouldn’t consistently produce more turnovers year after year
Ball-stripping techniques wouldn’t be teachable skills
Strip-sack artists, cover corners who bait QBs, safeties with ball skills—these aren’t random. They’re cultivated abilities.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:29 pm
Another take away… let’s not waste anymore time on Logan Hall n Chris Braswell. They’re both garbage n a bust. Have we not learned from the likes of Kyle Trask, JTS, n OJ Howard. Let’s try to get a 5th for both n move on. Ther are outta their league. I said the same about JTS n OJHoward. JTS is on the chopping block in Cleveland n OJHoward was a 1 hit wonder once traded then vanished off the map. We consume too much time with potentials.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:30 pm
Shooting percentages in basketball come in bunches too. That doesn’t make Stephen Curry’s three-point shooting “luck.”
Yes, takeaways have higher variance than sacks or tackles. But variance in outcomes doesn’t prove absence of skill. Home runs are less predictable than singles, yet we don’t claim power hitting is “luck.”
October 27th, 2025 at 4:31 pm
Wait—if takeaways are “accidents” and “luck,” how does playing fundamentally cause them to happen? You can’t have it both ways. Either they’re random luck, or they’re the result of deliberate actions.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:37 pm
Lol, no, not luck. At least, not just luck. Look at the Detroit film – they were trying to punch out or strip the ball on just about every play (hell, some of the punches even hit the ball and not our players!). The Bucs replicated that against the Saints (per your article about Nelson being in the zone), and, lo and behold, it worked.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:44 pm
A punt from your opponent’s 35-yard line that gives you the ball at your own 15 is absolutely NOT equivalent to:
-An interception at midfield
-A fumble recovery in the red zone
-A pick-six that scores without your offense touching the ball
Punts and turnovers differ in:
-Field position swings (massive difference)
-Momentum impact (turnovers demoralize, punts are expected)
-Scoring probability (turnovers often directly lead to points)
Saying “punts are turnovers too” is like saying “field goals are touchdowns too—they both score points!” Technically true, functionally silly.
October 27th, 2025 at 4:51 pm
If takeaways were luck, here’s what defenses should do:
-Stop trying. Don’t practice strip drills.
-Don’t teach DBs to read QBs’ eyes.
-Don’t scheme to disguise coverages.
-Just tackle and pray (Lol)
But no team does this. Why???? Because every defensive coordinator in the NFL knows that takeaway creation is teachable, practicable, and reproducible.
The entire defensive infrastructure of professional football—from practice drills to scheme design to draft evaluation—is built on the premise that takeaways are a skill.
October 27th, 2025 at 5:05 pm
Hey DMatt- up to this past game, most people said Anthony Nelson had potential too.
October 27th, 2025 at 5:14 pm
The real LUVMYBUCs is on fire.
“Strip-sack artists, cover corners who bait QBs, safeties with ball skills—these aren’t random. They’re cultivated abilities.“
Shaq Barrett instantly comes to mind
“Bucs’ offense has scored 26 points off 10 takeaways (2 TD & 4 FG)“
Should be so much more than 26 points, not a knock on the offense, but when you think about it thats 30-70 points you could max out on IF we scored off every one of these. So yea it’s a knock on the offense lol
October 27th, 2025 at 5:16 pm
Warren Brooks Lynch
Respect, Bredren
October 27th, 2025 at 6:18 pm
Joe, that horse is dead. You are free to stop beating it now.
October 27th, 2025 at 7:20 pm
Free us from this incompetent, Schiano probably would have had the same result as this guy with this team.
October 27th, 2025 at 7:32 pm
Read the comments. Can’t add anything more. Well done Bucs fans.
October 27th, 2025 at 10:59 pm
LUV
As always some great points. I agree with most. I think perhaps we’re all debating at the margins.
Turnovers are probably overvalued but they are clearly better than punts. I think it’s the old adage good luck comes to those who work hardest. Yes you can’t count on takeways in any individual game, much as you can plan for how successful you run or pass the ball, but over the long haul some teams seem to be better than others and even at the margins it’s the NFL where the margins can be the difference.