Playoffs Getting Closer
October 8th, 2025
May not need to hold breath.
Here are some feel-good numbers for Bucs fans as they tackle a hump day.
Per the unofficial NFL stats Twitter account @NFL_Stats, the Bucs are close to a lock for the playoffs. That is, if you believe recent history.
Per this site, teams this decade who start a season 4-1 have a 92 percent shot of making the playoffs.
This site is not the only outfit that thinks the Bucs have a better than 50/50 shot of playing meaningful January football.
Aaron Schatz, the inventor of DVOA over at FTNFantasy.com, has the Bucs with an 83.7 percent shot of the playoffs.PlayoffStatus.com has the Bucs with a 77 percent chance of making the playoffs.
So things are looking up for the Bucs and postseason play. Joe may suggest not blowing all your savings on the holidays. Save some for playoff games and various parties.
BSPN has the Bucs with a high probability of making the postseason at 87 percent, second-highest in the NFC. And not to be outdone, the PFF tribe has the Bucs with an 89 percent chance.
% of teams since 2020 that have made the playoffs after starting:
5-0: 100%
4-1: 92%
3-2: 56%
2-3: 26%
1-4: 7%
0-5: 0%— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) October 7, 2025
October 8th, 2025 at 9:06 am
Good news… win Sunday and in the playoffs.
October 8th, 2025 at 9:06 am
Nice statistics Joe but I love the old quote: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Bucs needs to keep their foot on the gas and rack up wins by focusing a game at a time. Dont buy the hype of statistics, mvp talk, or other praise. Don’t relax and celebrate till they hoist a trophy over their heads.
October 8th, 2025 at 9:07 am
I am failing to understand that first sentence…
Neither did Joe. It’s fixed.–Joe
October 8th, 2025 at 9:08 am
I’m just happy the Giants gave the Saints their first win. The longer a team goes winless the less I want to play them.
October 8th, 2025 at 9:08 am
That first sentence gave me a stroke.
October 8th, 2025 at 9:09 am
Being 4-1 means you only need a .500 record to hit 10-7. With our cushy back end of the schedule, I don’t see this being an issue at all. We got this.
October 8th, 2025 at 9:31 am
Whoa, slow down, Joe. I know that jbf is a Bucs Fan site, but we’ve got 11 games left, and still a lot of players injured. One game at a time. Your first sentence didn’t bother me. Wednesday is Hump day. 5-1, Bucs!!
October 8th, 2025 at 9:32 am
1 GAME AT A TIME!!!!!
4-1!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
October 8th, 2025 at 9:40 am
Might be greedy, but I think the goal should be to run the table after the bye with the bulk of our players healthy again. And yes, we go to Buffalo and LA but I don’t care. Full strength this offense can throttle any team. This year shouldn’t be about just making the dance, we need to be dogfighting for the #1 seed and a bye. Especially after surviving the early schedule 4-1 with a mountain of injuries.
October 8th, 2025 at 9:42 am
I agree with Jim Mora’s response about playoffs.
One game at a time. The 49ers will be a very tough game coming up. You can bet they learned a lot from the Seahawks game where our D gave up 35 pts and our rushing game average 2.3 yds/carry.
October 8th, 2025 at 9:48 am
Bucs have got to avoid the last couple of years mid season streak of losses.
October 8th, 2025 at 9:51 am
Loved Bowles after half interview with sideline girl (which I think is ridiculous having them) It was classic line which I think Bowles should say every week.
“We just got to keep scoring points and stop the other team to from scoring points” (paraphrased)
Now that is some wisdom there.
Bucs defense came out on first possession of 2nd half and Seahawks scored in 4 plays.
October 8th, 2025 at 10:15 am
Joe … ‘Per the unofficial NFL stats Twitter account @NFL_Stats, the Bucs are close to a lock for the playoffs. That is, if you believe recent history.’
That belies the question Joe … ‘Do YOU believe recent history?’ Just in these past 3 years since Todd took over as HC, we went through (1) a period in 2022 when we lost 5-of-6 games; (2) a period in 2023 when we lost 6-of-7 games; and (3) a period in 2024 when we lost 5-of-6 games.
There’s a certain consistency there which is scary, although in each case injuries kept mounting & were a major factor. It’d be nice to point to just the offense or defense as being ‘the cause’ but that’s not the case. The ’cause’ changed virtually week to week; sometimes it was defense sputtering, sometimes it was offense. And yes, sometimes it was both.
What I’m liking about our 2025 team thus far is that it’s very resilient. Yes we’ve made mistakes (some whoppers actually), but this team has totally bought in to the belief that they’re NEVER out of it. And we’ve fought back in each and every game. That is priceless.
As I look at the 12 games on the rest of our schedule, it seems useful to divide those into 2 blocks of 6-games each. The first ‘block’ (49ers, Lions, Saints, Patriots, Bills, Rams) will probably be much tougher than the 2nd block (Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, Panthers).
Our current 4-1 start is a huge blessing obviously. Our Bucs team, although beaten up physically, is showing that they can play with anyone. Improve little-by-little, game-by-game like we have in past years, and this Bucs team should not just be able to make the playoffs, but also do some damage once we get there.
October 8th, 2025 at 10:30 am
Even if we go 3-3 the next 6 games we shld be in great shape.
October 8th, 2025 at 10:43 am
If this team just wants to get into the tournament they only need to beat the Saints 2 times, beat the Panthers 2 times and beat the Falcons and Dolphins. That is 10 wins stomping on divisional rivals and beating a cupcake.
I know this team has higher goals so take them 1 at a time and play your best.
October 8th, 2025 at 10:52 am
With no defense and Magoo continuing to drive the special bus into the ditch, this team under you know who will likely have one of those swoons that have become a Todd Trademark.
5-7 is just as likely as 7-5.
October 8th, 2025 at 10:59 am
Forget making the playoffs. We need to be aiming for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. We’re going to make the playoffs. The challenge this year is getting to the Conference championship and hopefully the SB. Our chances of doing that are best if we’re the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
October 8th, 2025 at 11:06 am
Aqualung is truly a sourpuss.
You think this team goes 1-6?
Give me a break!
October 8th, 2025 at 1:32 pm
I don’t think any of these sites have looked into their crystal balls and seen how lousy the Bucs schedule is the last 9-10 games. There are very few teams expected to be .500 or better on it. Even if we split the last 10… combined with our four wins, that gives us NINE wins, which is likely a playoff team… very likely. But barring a total collapse, there’s no way we split our last 10… more like, 7-3 or 8-2 worst case scenario if we don’t lose the entire roster to IR. This is a 12+ win team… which I said before the season started… funny enough, i stated in 2022 that we were a 9+ win team and last year a 10+ win team…. based on my astute predictions, bet the house on 12+ wins.
October 8th, 2025 at 2:54 pm
I still remember Sam Wyche’s “5 dash 2” comments before the bottom dropped out of that season.
October 8th, 2025 at 3:08 pm
aqualung choking on the crow Todd cooked for him again!!!!
easy young fella….one bite at a time…and dont eat the feathers!!!!
4-1!!!
GO BUCS!!!
October 8th, 2025 at 3:10 pm
With no defense and Magoo continuing to drive the special bus into the ditch
***************************************************************
easy young fella!!!!….one bite at a time…dont want you to choke on that crow Todd cooked for him again!!!!
chew slow, dont talk with your mouth full…and dont eat the feathers!!!!
4-1!!!
GO BUCS!!!
October 9th, 2025 at 7:04 am
Wonderful news for all the Statboys out there. Wonder what the percentage is for four game skids? Way too early for that nonsense.
Go Bucs!