Bucs-Falcons Ceiling Clash
July 26th, 2025
Is it possible the 2025 Falcons have a higher ceiling than the Bucs but are far less likely to win the NFC South?
That’s the contention of the official NFL data-driven personality named Game Preview Guy. He does exhausting breakdowns and Joe’s not sure if the voice is part artificial intelligence.
Regardless, the Game Preview Guy cranked out a 43-minute video preview of the NFC South and projects the Bucs to win the division with a 9-8 record. He explains the Bucs’ ceiling is 11 wins with a floor of 7 wins.
However, the analysis for the Falcons was a 12-win ceiling and a six-win floor, and a prediction for them to fall in behind the Bucs with eight wins but maybe nine. The floated X-factor on the high side was whether quarterback Michael Penix can play like C.J. Stroud or the rookie version of Jayden Daniels.
Joe was appalled by all of this. First, the Bucs’ ceiling is at least 12 wins. “Ceiling” should be defined as the best the Bucs can pull off. And Joe thinks it’s fair to say the Bucs’ ceiling in the NFC South is a 6-0 record and they’re certainly capable of going 6-5 outside the division.
Team Glazer should use its pull and recommend Game Preview Guy for termination.
As for the Falcons, Joe agrees with their ceiling. As much as Joe hates to type it, Atlanta has talent.
If free agent edge rusher Leonard Floyd has a season that matches any one of his past five, and one of Atlanta’s first-round pass rushers hits the ground running, their defense will improve immensely. Joe also like Penix, though he has a lot to prove, and Bijan Robinson is an elite player behind a good offensive line.
It may sound silly to say opening day in Atlanta is a must-win game for the Bucs. But a loss would be absolutely brutal for a variety of reasons. And then the Bucs would be solid underdogs a week later in Houston.
Beat Atlanta!
July 26th, 2025 at 4:42 pm
they’retheir defense will improve immenselyJuly 26th, 2025 at 4:44 pm
“It may sound silly to say opening day in Atlanta is a must-win game for the Bucs”
🤣🤣🤣 Wow. Drama much?
July 26th, 2025 at 4:49 pm
9 wins?? Only if multiple things go wrong – like major injuries to 3 or 4 star players….
9 wins is the Bucs floor this season. The ceiling is 14 or 15 wins.
Most likely is an 11 or perhaps 12 win season and at least 1 playoff victory.
Anything less than that would be a disappointment with this year’s roster.
July 26th, 2025 at 4:55 pm
Bucs ceiling is 13-14 wins, certainly not 12. Maybe even 15 if everything on earth goes right and nobody gets hurt all season. Heh.
Atlanta’s is definitely not higher. Baker Mayfield is more likely to play like Peyton Manning than Penix is to play like Jayden Daniels.
July 26th, 2025 at 4:58 pm
I think Rah is a better HC with the schemes, Xs and Os etc
Both offenses are pretty much even in terms of talent
But Rah did fire Jimmy Lake as DC, and drafted 2 Edge Rushers
I think it comes down to the. Bucs defense playing more aggressive
I love Rah aggressive approach, defensive and offensive
July 26th, 2025 at 5:08 pm
Joe how good is this guy if he predicts a 9 -7 season. Computer stat driven AI? He must be still running Windows 7… What happened to the 17th game ? That’s the problem with AI… there’s a learning curve.
July 26th, 2025 at 5:16 pm
Bucs ceiling of 12-13 wins, bottom of 8-9 wins, most likely record will be 11-6. Falcons have two rookie edge rushers. Not going to see anything special out of either one until next year at the earliest. Michael Who? Until he does it, he hasn’t and I’ll take Baker over Michael until he proves he’s been there and done that at Baker’s level.
July 26th, 2025 at 5:20 pm
healthy bucs on a good day can beat anyone. paper football is the same as underwear football, though.
July 26th, 2025 at 5:39 pm
Falcons have the makings of an excellent offense, as do the Bucs. Both teams will quality special teams, and both teams have significantly revamped defenses. Gotta think that the team ending up with the better defense will have the better season.
My money’s on the Bucs.
July 26th, 2025 at 6:04 pm
Defense has to learn how to tackle and the OLBs have to get after Penix. If the Bucs can put pressure on Penix and the DBs can play press coverage and not give up easy passes on 3rd down, they can win. Bucs can’t play ATL like they did last year that’s for sure. Bowles better not put DLs in coverage. lol. ceiling is 14 wins.
July 26th, 2025 at 6:05 pm
Out of curiosity, why does this site call the Falcons the Dixie Chicks?
July 26th, 2025 at 6:09 pm
Oh, and the Bucs offense is way more talented than Atlanta’s- look at WR 1-4, the O-line, and QB. RB is close too- the Bucs ran it better last year.
July 26th, 2025 at 6:13 pm
Penix has said they should have the best offense in the league, in every category this season 🙄. We, quietly believe the same. No better way to shut some people up (and get some people talking) than putting Penix on his a$$ early and often in the opener and registering a couple of takeaways.
Lfg Bucs 🤘🏼
July 26th, 2025 at 6:13 pm
DR – The Bucs have a better QB, better OL and better receivers (including backs) than the Falcons. Not saying Atlanta’s OL or WRs suck – just that ours are better.
And Penix of course is unproven and still learning how to be an NFL QB…..
I like our Defense better on paper – especially the back end. Falcons did spend quite a bit of resources this year trying to find a pass rush. If they succeeded – then their defense will be decent to good. If not – then not so good…. Pretty much same scenario for the Bucs I guess…. LOL
July 26th, 2025 at 6:24 pm
Stpetematt – Joe loves to designate nicknames….
Dixie Chicks, Slimy Saints, Stinkin Panthers….
Bucco Bruce Arians, Lousy Lovie Smith…
America’s Quarterback….
One of my favorites is ‘Follicly Challenged Bill Barnwell’.
Bet that dude hates Joe for always calling him that – LOL
July 26th, 2025 at 6:36 pm
We are younger and I expect more improvement from last year and throughout this season than the Falcons will have. We have a way stronger team culture. We have many more guys that can play multiple roles. I’m not sure how other teams can defend our crew of offensive weapons. We have multiple guys that need to be double teamed. Our defence is improved and deeper than Atlanta’s. I also think man for man we are better than them. I’ll take our QB duo over theirs any day. Trask sraying with the Bucs says a lot to me.
July 26th, 2025 at 6:46 pm
The first two games are away and week 3 is a short week. That is a good test to start the season. Go Bucs. We will see how Atlanta matches up week 1.
July 26th, 2025 at 6:48 pm
If Todd Bowles play soft coverage against the Falcons
Michael Penix Jr will pick them apart like sitting ducks
And Bijan will run wild behind Chris Lindstrom
We give Pitts and Drake London free releases, and they destroy us
There’s a reason why the Falcons swept us last season
Better coaching, and they made more crucial offensive plays
When you have a Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson
And their offensive line, you’re not lacking on offense
Trust me
July 26th, 2025 at 6:51 pm
Bowles > rah, and it’s not even close. Bring on Atlanta 🏴☠️🏴☠️
July 26th, 2025 at 6:53 pm
I’m a Buc fan thru and out,
Thru thick and thin..till the end
But sometimes you have to face reality
This this team swept us last season
And they put scored our high powered offense both times
Their defense gave up 25 PPG last season
If they can get it under 21, they gonna be hard to be at
True facts
July 26th, 2025 at 6:55 pm
”’l don’t know where some of those words come from””
Lol
July 26th, 2025 at 7:05 pm
I guess I must be high, but I thought for sure there were17 games in a season.
July 26th, 2025 at 7:27 pm
Pickgrin … I too like our offense & defense better, but as we saw last season, anything can happen over the course of 17 games. Both the Bucs & Falcons were 8-7 last year after 15 games, and they owned the tie-breaker. The last 2 weeks though made all the difference when we won Games 16 & 17 to finish 10-7 and they lost both of them (BOTH in overtime) to finish 8-9. Such is life.
July 26th, 2025 at 7:45 pm
Stpetematt: Because the Falcon Chokers would be in poor taste.
July 26th, 2025 at 8:17 pm
Because they are baby birds and baby birds are called chick’s and they are from the south hence Dixie.
July 26th, 2025 at 8:26 pm
Rah is not a good coach
Like able guy
Did not bench a QB that was hurt until too late
Bad decisions vs Washington etc
Lakeland Buc watch QB on Netflix and you’ll have a different opinion
July 26th, 2025 at 8:27 pm
Bucs Ceiling is 15 wins if the defense is as good as I think it can be, and the offense maintains from last year. Last year the Bucs were seconds away from three wins, and their schedule is markedly easier this year. Their major conference rivals besides the Eagles (Lions and Rams) both have huge questions marks, while their non-conference schedule is against the Texans, the weakest AFC division winner, and the AFC East, arguably the worst division in football this year.
I predicted 12 wins, but it could easily be more.
July 26th, 2025 at 9:37 pm
I don’t know why people think Rah can’t coach
He was on Jon Gruden staff, when the Bucs won their first Super Bowl
He was an assistant DB coach to Mike Tomlin
He was an assistant Head Coach to Dan Quinn when they blew the 28-3 lead to NE in the Super Bowl.
He was the DC with the Rams when they beat the Bucs and won the Super Bowl. He won 10 games as the Bucs HC with a bunch of UDFAs
You can’t keep taking these Falcons and Rah lightly
If you do, it will be another sweep by the Falcons
Just sayin
July 26th, 2025 at 9:39 pm
“””The Rams beat the Bucs in the NFC Championship game
Then beat the Bengals in the Super Bowl “”
July 26th, 2025 at 9:40 pm
Bucs need to get after Penix jr he was really injury prone in collage an I believe only played one full season In collage the rest were cut short with big injuries if the Bucs can get to him with pressure an hit him they will be good an they should be able to with that Defense Knock him.around force TOs make him see.ghost
July 26th, 2025 at 10:04 pm
I’d think anything less than 12 wins would be a disappointment. I can see a path to 14+… No $hit! For real. And no before ya ask I haven’t over-medicated planted here on the couch, stuck….. The 2025 Buccaneers get to 14+ wins by: Avoiding the injury bug, staying positive, professional and serious as they approach business each week and not looking past the upcoming opponent.
Mark this prediction please,Joe. I’ll certainly screenshot it. I have no problem standing behind what I say and laying out how my logic. I’ve been a fan for 50 years. I went to school with Brantley’s sisters andy older siblings went to school with Scott & John. I’ve been a fan through the ugly and never wavered. Joe talks about the “lost decade”…. Well, other than the playoffs (Rams game in ’79 , i think 🤔) the Buc’s were the laughing stock of the NFL until Coach Dungy bought respect and identity (Deeee- Fence) nearly 20 years after the Buc’s only respectful season since their inception…. The franchise started what 27 straight loses?. The Glazier’s, Coach Dungy and Chucky put this team on the map and bought respectability to the organization. Jason Lyte and company have taken it to a whole new level. One more super bowl in the near future and we’ll be talking about Lyte building a dynasty, Seafert style. The Buc’s may simply “reload” for the next 10 years verses “rebuilding” every few… Go Buc’s at 14+
July 26th, 2025 at 11:17 pm
Target: Michael Penix Jr. — Brittle Under Pressure
Injury History Snapshot
2018: Torn ACL (left knee)
2019: Sternoclavicular joint injury (right, non-throwing shoulder) — required surgery
2020: Re-torn ACL (left knee)
2021: Dislocated right (throwing) shoulder
Michael Penix Jr. has sustained major injuries to both knees and both shoulders—twice compromising the same ACL and damaging his throwing arm. His durability is a known liability. He breaks down when the pocket breaks down.
Keep the pressure high. Hit him. Harass him. Collapse his rhythm early. Force movement, test those knees, challenge that shoulder. He’s shown a pattern: over time, the hits add up—and he cracks.
July 26th, 2025 at 11:28 pm
^
Licht, not Lyte
Glazers, not Glaziers
Bucs, not Buc’s
26 straight losses
Seafert? If that’s who I think it is, it’s spelled wrong, and he wasn’t responsible for any dynasty.
In ‘79 we beat the Iggles in the playoffs on the back of Ricky Bell. We then lost to the Rams in the NFC Championship because we were shut out.
July 27th, 2025 at 12:00 am
Bold prediction for the opener.
Michael’s Penix will throw for 350 yards and 3TDs on 35 of 39 passing. Bowles opts to attempt a game tying 58 yard FG on 4th and 2 with 2:10 left instead of going for the first down. We miss the FG and can’t get the ball back. Bucs lose 30-27.
July 27th, 2025 at 12:02 am
The only time their talent counts is against us. Everybody else is up and down. I 2nd what FilthyAnimal said. The 1st game this year is going to be very important for the Bucs
July 27th, 2025 at 12:38 am
Actually, I was laughing at Joe’s suggestion that the opening game with ATL was “must win”… that’s just patently absurd. Big game? Sure, obviously… but to call any game so early in the season a “must win” is being overly dramatic, even if it’s against your main division rival.
July 27th, 2025 at 12:47 am
Bowles can’t afford to lose the opener. He will but he can’t afford to.
July 27th, 2025 at 2:12 am
Aqualung…i predict that Bowles elects to kick a FG with 2:30 left on the clock.
Give me a break…
July 27th, 2025 at 4:57 am
The Bucs all the way! Agree with a lot of the comments too. We have a young team with a lot of talent.
The Falcons are in a precariously situation in who their starting QB is. Does Cousins go somewhere else? So much uncertainty going into preseason which does have repercussions in the locker room, and onto the field.
July 27th, 2025 at 7:08 am
Many of these posts do not seem to recognize how much of a liability Rah really is. Some say what happened in his last ten games as Bucs HC ( the players just flat out quit on him) is no longer relevant. Okay. But what about choking down the stretch, last season? Realistically the division title was theirs to lose and that is exactly what they did.
But at least he has shown the sense not to undertake the def coordinator role.
July 27th, 2025 at 7:16 am
The ceiling for our Bucs this year? Not too worried about it. I’ve only seen Baker entering his 3rd year with 2 teams. 3rd year with OU lost to Georgia 54-48. Led 31-17 at half. 45-45 going into overtime. Bama beat Georgia 26-23 in overtime the next week for Saban’s 5th national championship. Baker in his 3rd year with Cleveland went 11-5 and were a missed call from the AFC championship game. By the time Baker has had a few years with a team it seems like said team is hitting their stride. Can’t imagine what we may look like if he gets 6 or 7 years. We’re going to be the favorites going into a bunch of games this next 5 or 6 years. Of that much I’m sure.
July 27th, 2025 at 8:01 am
These guys lay awake at night dreaming this stuff up. I am sure of it! What in the Wide World of Sports is this guy talking about! High ceiling is the latest scout jargon but I am not a fan of it.
Go Bucs!