All Eyes Are On The Defense
July 4th, 2025
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
Yesterday, Joe read a commenter on this here corner of the interwebs ask a very good question.
Last year, the Bucs were ravaged by injuries in the secondary and at inside linebacker. It led to the Bucs playing Antoine Winfield when his play had dropped off so much from his normal self, Joe has wondered aloud several times that maybe Winfield shouldn’t have been on the field.
The commenter in question stated (Joe is paraphrasing) the offense had a bunch of injuries, too, yet Liam Coen still produced.
That’s a fair point. Very fair. For three games, the Bucs were without their two Hall of Fame/Pro Bowl receivers. Granted, the Bucs lost all three but it wasn’t like the offense collapsed. Each game was a one-score losses. A
ll three were lost, in large part, because the Bucs either couldn’t get a stop late in the fourth quarter or in overtime.
Sense a pattern?
In Warren Sharp’s Sharp Football Analysis 2025 Preview, Sharp said all eyes are on the Bucs defense this fall.
The Bucs dropped from #12 to #25 in touchdowns allowed per drive, they dropped from #8 to #25 in turnovers forced per drive, and they consequently dropped from #11 to #18 in points allowed per drive.
Tampa is playing a slightly more difficult schedule of offenses in 2025, so they must improve tremendously on that side of the ball.
Doing a modicum of research this week, Joe was stunned to re-discover that, except for one season (2022), the Bucs have been in the bottom-third of the league in passing yards allowed per game. Three separate times the Bucs ranked No. 29 in passing yards allowed, including the last past seasons.
So yeah, Joe agrees. The defense better improve with new additions to every level.
And it would also go a long way if SirVocea Dennis and Jamel Dean can stay on the field. Those two have missed a combined 26 games the past two seasons. Not good.
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July 4th, 2025 at 6:37 am
Defense returns to top 10 status (was #16 last year in the only defensive stat that REALLY matters – points against) and offense remains top 5 = 11+ wins and poised to make a deep playoff run……
July 4th, 2025 at 6:44 am
The defense has to be better this year. We’ve been bad at pass defense for 2 reasons.
1. Our defense is primarily set up to stop the run.
2. The players and coaching scheme have not been good enough.
Also, before we just say that the offense is good even when we have injuries, it appears that when both Evans and Godwin were both out – we averaged 310 yards per game. When at least one of them were on the field, the Bucs averaged 418 yards per game. And more importantly, we lost all three games they were both out.
July 4th, 2025 at 7:00 am
Please Please let’s stop with this JDean need to stay on the field. Injured or not, he’s at the threshold of mediocre. He’s a dud who drop potential ints on critical downs, is a passive tackler, often gets juked, is slow to react, is extremely poor at tracking the bal, n to this day, seems confused on where to line up on certain plays despite 7yrs in the league. I’m so done with this guy in the same manner I was with OJ Howard, Jayden Darden, JTS, n Scotty Miller.
July 4th, 2025 at 7:17 am
Bowles is old school: Always, ALWAYS, stop the run first. The league has changed, maybe that’s not the way to do it anymore, and he hasn’t noticed?
July 4th, 2025 at 7:18 am
IMO Dean better than Howard, Darden, JTS, and Miller.
However, would love for him to be involved in a trade for Trey Hendrickson!
July 4th, 2025 at 7:42 am
I’m with Pickgrin.
All that matters is points scored against this defense.
When a team focuses primarily on stopping the run, they’re going to give up more yards in the passing game automatically. Not allowing teams to score as much against us, that is the key. Getting those third down stops and forcing more turnovers is huge this year. Do we have the horses to do it? I think so.
July 4th, 2025 at 8:18 am
While I agree that keeping an opponent from scoring is the primary goal; letting them use up entire quarters driving up and down the field is not great either. The Commanders had a 15 play drive and an 11 play drive to start the game. The defense had a couple of late stops, but not nearly enough. The field position game was too much to recover from.
July 4th, 2025 at 8:46 am
Uh oh. Expecting a coach to perform through adversity that every other coach also has to perform through seems to be a no no for Bowls. His fan boys really really hate when you hold him accountable without offering excuse after excuse for his terrible rotten no good lousy defense.
July 4th, 2025 at 8:51 am
Run stop defense.
League is all passing offenses.
Bucs better evolve. Stagnation is death.
July 4th, 2025 at 8:52 am
we just have to play complementary football….
if the defense is lacking, offense needs to run the ball, chew up the clock and protect the football(limit INTs & Fumbles)
if the offense isnt playing well, defense needs to flip the field, limit penalties, and take the ball away(punts or turnovers)
simple as that!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
July 4th, 2025 at 9:07 am
Beej … ‘Bowles is old school: Always, ALWAYS, stop the run first. The league has changed, maybe that’s not the way to do it anymore, and he hasn’t noticed?’
I agree Beej: Todd Bowles is ‘old school’. Our Bucs had the #16 defense in terms of Points Allowed (our worst showing since 2019 when Bowles arrived here). We had the #29 Pass Defense with 4147 Passing Yards Allowed (which obviously drove Joe to drink), but we had the #4 Run Defense with 1663 Rushing Yards Allowed.
But the same could surely be said about the Vikings’ and their DC, Brian Flores. Their Pass Defense ranked #28, with 4114 Passing Yards Allowed, but their Run Defense ranked #2, with only 1588 Rushing Yards Allowed. Similar results, except that the Vikings defense ranked #5 in the NFL, 11 places better than our #16 ranking. And they finished with a 14-3 record (but got clubbed by the Rams in the 1st playoff game, 27-9). So they also focused on stopping the run like we did, their pass defense was no better than ours, yet they finished with the #5 overall defense. Hmmm, MAYBE there’s more to the story than just Pass Defense & Run Defense.
Actually there were several areas where Minnesota’s defense performed significantly better than ours, despite those similarities. For one thing, the Vikings made 33 takeaways altogether last season … 24 INTs & 9 FRs. Compare that to our 18 takeaways last season … 7 INTs & 11 FRs. Huge difference. Vikings won the Turnover Battle in 8 games; Bucs won it in only 4 games.
Another significant difference lies in stopping 3rd & 4th down conversion attempts. Vikings only allowed 35.6% of 3rd down conversion attempts to succeed (ranked #4), while our Bucs allowed 38.1% to succeed (ranked #14). But it’s on the 4th down conversion attempts that the Vikings really blew us away. They only allowed 13-of-35 to succeed (37.1% for a #1 ranking). The Bucs on the other hand allowed 19-of-30 to succeed (63.3% for a #23 ranking).
Considering their advantages in those 2 stats … takeaways & 3rd/4th down conversions … that’s a big reason why the Vikings’ defense ranked #5 (allowing only 332 points), while our defense ranked #16 (allowing 385 points). And those are 2 areas that we REALLY need to improve in this year.
July 4th, 2025 at 9:08 am
The only stat that matters is where are you ranked in scoring defense yards don’t mean nothing. People forget about the Patriots defense because the meadi gave all the credit to Brady and if you bring up their defense then that means you hate Brady so people ignored it. But the Patriots defense was always ranked top 5 in scoring because they didn’t give many points. They would give passing yards and rushing yards but they didn’t give up points. Go see each year they were in the Superbowl how many times teams scored 30 points against their defense.
July 4th, 2025 at 9:25 am
…and they the failed DC is rewarded with a contract extension. Yeeeesh!
July 4th, 2025 at 9:28 am
All you have to do is look at where the team has talent – offense. How many undrafted free agents are we starting on offense. The talent holes on defense have been wide and deep since the SB. We’ve weathered the ensuing salary cap hell with the majority of emphasis on Offense. Yup, there have been busts on D – JTS – and guys that dumped on us – D. White, J. Whitehead round II.
Yet with the greatest weaknesses being on D, we go WR in the draft. I’m sure EE will be great. But RD1 should be a Pro Bowl caliber player (when the Pro Bowl meant something) and we make the pick on O.
The two teams that crushed KC in the SB have been the Bucs and Eagles. Both did it with DEFENSE.
July 4th, 2025 at 9:35 am
It is worth repeating: “Doing a modicum of research this week, Joe was stunned to re-discover that, except for one season (2022), the Bucs have been in the bottom-third of the league in passing yards allowed per game. Three separate times the Bucs ranked No. 29 in passing yards allowed, including the last past seasons.” Joe’s words!
So, under Bowles, 1 out of 6 years the pass “D” is NOT in the bottom 3rd of the league! That sounds like the system is the problem more than the players, no? Even when we had pass-rushers (JPP, Barrett), strong interior (Vita, Suh, Gholston, Hicks), good to great LBs (LVD, DW, when he cared), & above average back-end (Winfield, Davis, Dean, saftey, Revis’ cousin who went to Jets & returned last year, safety from KY who left then returned last year, names escape me now) the “D” still ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league!? That is defensive genius stuff right there!?
Last year the offense missed:
Goedeke. 2-3 games,
Wirfs 1-2 games,
rookie center 1 game,
Starting LG 1-2 games,
RB White 1 game,
Evans 3 games,
Godwin 9-10 games. (Did I miss anyone?)
and remained ALL year & finished in the top 5! Sounds like a good system & good play calling, no? But BBB, the culture! The wrong coordinator left.
Thanks Bucinjim, if your high-powered “O” is on the bench, they are rendered powerless!
Bowles
Rated
July 4th, 2025 at 9:46 am
I need to mark this day. It is the most I have ever agreed with ONeilbuc!!!
FrontFour – To me lots of ways to win and win the Super Bowl. I do remember Sean Payton saying he felt really good about the Bucs style of defense in the Super Bowl, and it gave them an excellent chance to win against KC. He seemed convinced that Bowles would not let any explosive plays happen by KC in the Super Bowl and he turned out correct.
The same thing that fans complain about in the Washington playoff game for our defensive strategy worked against KC in the Super Bowl. Sometimes game by game matchups do work in the ways you want them to and sometimes they do not.
It’s what I love about pro football. Not just a singular way to get there.
July 4th, 2025 at 9:57 am
The apologists and excuse makers are out in droves.
Points allowed and yards allowed correlate very strongly over time. When they don’t, it’s an anomaly, not some magic button that a part-time coordinator pushes. Last season the chickens came home to roost, a reversion to the statistical mean. Any team needing just a FG to win or tie in the 4th quarter simply carves up the Bucs soft underbelly like a 4th of July tenderloin.
Todd’s pass defense sucks. Has sucked.
Will it suck in 2025?
July 4th, 2025 at 9:59 am
PS even Bryce Young could do it. Thank you Anthony Nelson. You saved Todd’s job and the Bucs season temporarily.
July 4th, 2025 at 10:44 am
No No No bucs fans you got it all wrong.
“Look over here, we won the south again!! Nothing wrong with the defensive coaching whatever do you mean!!!??”
July 4th, 2025 at 10:51 am
I’M SO PUMPED FOR OUR NEW DEFENSE
Here’s the good news. NO … THE GREAT NEWS. Bowles coaches all observed the same thing. They acknowledged the pass defense was attrotious and needed changes.
They locked themsleves in a room for days and days with the goal of fixing the defense.
1. Discovered the problems.
2. Analyzed options.
3. Built a new scheme.
You remember the last HC and DC to create a new scheme. It was Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin. They created the Tampa 2. Here comes the Tampa v3?
July 4th, 2025 at 10:57 am
Passing yards allowed ranking doesn’t always equate to a successful team. The bottom 6 teams in 2024 were Jaguars, Ravens, Bucs, Vikings, Lions. Only the Jaguars missed the playoffs. The team that allowed the least amount of passing yards was the Titans, and they just had the first pick in the draft.
Teams with good offenses (The playoff teams mentioned above) are more likely to force the opposing team to pass, therefore increasing the attempts and likelihood of higher yardage.
When looking at yards per attempt given up, the Bucs were middle of the pack but near other playoff teams (Bills, Chiefs, Vikings, Ravens, Lions).
When looking at TDs given up, the Bucs were slightly worse than middle of the pack but were within +/- 2 TDs of other playoff teams (Commanders, Ravens, Bills, Rams).
Interception ranking was bleak but tied with the Commanders.
The passer rating was in the bottom 1/3 of the league and the worst among all playoff teams (the Rams were close).
That being said, out of Pass Offense, Rush Offense, Pass Defense, Rush Defense, and Special Teams. The passing D was clearly the weak link on the Bucs and even modest improvement (with no major regression on the other units) would put the Bucs into the elite team echelon.
July 4th, 2025 at 11:55 am
‘the offense had a bunch of injuries, too, yet Liam Coen still produced.’
And that is what exposed Bowels as a poor DC!…
Liam (as a newby OC) coached the talent he had and still had success…
Bowels (with all his years experience) showed he has to have the best players or his side falls apart… Not good at coaching to where he can coach up the 2nd string….
Hoping the next Bucs HC is coming SOON and is a modern OC with great success!
July 4th, 2025 at 12:27 pm
Nicely framed Bucsbeback. Just seems “Obvious” doesn’t it.
What I’m trying to wrap my head around is where.is Jason Licht in this? I guess THAT’S the advantage of being the “Man behind the Curtain” . He has the luxury of letting Todd Bowles take all the heat. And because of Todd’s Choices he deserves it.
BUT… to be Perfectly Honest….. Jason Licht is Ultimately Responsible for Todd Bowles! “Jason Licht” IS responsible for No Full Time DC……!
I’d LOVE to be a fly on the wall when he bends the knee and kisses the ring and has to EXPLAIN the LOUSY Defensive circumstances.. It seems he’s selling magic beans to the Glazers for their $ CASH COW $! Obviously he’s got them a bit hoodwinked and drunk on very small doses of nfc south “barely” titles…..
Got to give Jason credit… He one he!! Of a salesman!
July 4th, 2025 at 2:03 pm
Not sure the source of this but I thought some of our reasonable readers might find it interesting.
July 4th, 2025 at 2:03 pm
Lots of promising young players on defense. They should improve throughout the season. The defense should be very good in the end. Fewer INTs would help, too.
July 4th, 2025 at 2:08 pm
There are numerous good YouTube videos on defensive schemes that can help understand (for those interested in actually knowing more about defense) coverage’s and schemes..
July 4th, 2025 at 2:18 pm
SlyPirate … Interesting observations. I’m also wondering what changes Todd Bowles & his defensive staff will be making this season. Gut feel is that he’ll depend a lot more on rushing 4-5 and not blitzing nearly as much. Also feel that our Secondary will be playing a lot more man-to-man, or at least a ‘tighter zone’.
July 4th, 2025 at 2:33 pm
There are so many holes in those two sentences Joe doesn’t know where to begin.
July 4th, 2025 at 2:39 pm
Give it a try Joe.
Start with ONE hole and work from there.
I’ve heard a few respected talking heads (Greg Olsen comes to mind) mirror that opinion. If it’s wrong, or has holes in it I’d be happy to hear what they are, from an analytics perspective and with some logic please ✌🏼
July 4th, 2025 at 2:43 pm
when you’re winning the other team passes a bunch more, maybe we were just that damn good offensively 🙂
July 4th, 2025 at 2:43 pm
No need. It stands for itself. Might need to check your ego at the door, though. You’re not as smart as you pretend to be.
Plus please do continue to pick fights with Joe’s readers. That you are well-versed in.
July 4th, 2025 at 3:29 pm
Bravo Joe. Extinct reptiles try to bully but gets butthurt when facts which don’t agree with his muffin recipe.
July 4th, 2025 at 3:48 pm
Ok Joe. I appreciate your time. Of course you didn’t address the post, or expand on your opinion, but you took the time to low key blame the messenger and redirect the conversation to something other than the topic at hand.
As far as my fights go …. You are right, I usually try to pick debates but they turn into fights. Kinda hard when I post stats or opinions and get labeled snowflake, cupcake, maroon, etc etc etc. over and over. There are only 2-3 people who I regularly “fight” with and they have a long history of name calling, and making troll posts, and trying to bully anyone who questions their simplistic, always negative narrative. Regardless, I own my part…. I do engage in that shlt too often and just last night I decided to ease up on the wasted energy.You may have noticed there was nothing argumentative in my posts today 👍🏼
I expected an actual reply from you on the topic @ hand. Analytics and defense, not just an attempt to “wave it off” with some kind of its obvious claim. You said “There are so many holes in those two sentences Joe doesn’t know where to begin.” just avoids the question that your comment to me raised – what are the holes in the statement?
I didn’t write the original comment but I posted it because I thought it would encourage discussion re: defensive schemes, what we’ve played, results, defensive philosophy etc etc but it’s pretty obvious not many of us here are interested in that type of discussion… I would have thought you’d welcome this type of comment and discussion but c’est la vie.
Thx for the site and your time have a happy 4th of July 🥳
July 4th, 2025 at 4:04 pm
Some extinct reptiles just look and act like an appendage that has no ears.
July 4th, 2025 at 4:11 pm
See what I mean Joe 🤣
Now if I comment back to someone who calls me names am I picking a fight?
Thank you for your comment @aqualung and bless your heart 🙏🏼
July 4th, 2025 at 4:13 pm
Cry to daddy after a spanking. Nice.
July 4th, 2025 at 4:55 pm
Since I just poured my first glass of many cheers to everyone, happy Fourth of July! As far as analytics go, without looking up stat’s I’m guessing field position and time of possession play a huge part in the outcome of the game. If the Bucs let most teams drive to the 50, even if they stop them there, they’ll punt it to the 10-yard line. What are the odds of scoring a TD driving 90 consistently?
July 4th, 2025 at 6:39 pm
Back to my original comment….
I think at least some “experts” agree that there are a few key stats that are more important than others = PPG, explosive plays, turnovers…. I’d add red zone D, 3rd (and 4th) down success.
Yards allowed doesn’t correlate to W/L as often as some seem to think. For some I think it’s THE ONLY stat they consider as it’s pretty much the only one they mention in their critiques. Every thing else is catchphrases and redirection to personal attacks instead of conversing about the data.
The best (top 10) in the league last year at limiting yards in the passing game.
Tennessee, Philadelphia, NY Jets, SF, Washington, Houston, Chargers, Green Bay, NY Giants, Miami btw……. Pretty mixed bag that seems to indicate the info I posted might just have some validity 🤔
July 4th, 2025 at 7:03 pm
GoneGator.
Yeah, I’ve been on the site more regularly since 2019. The only thing I’ve seen Joe do when it comes to “building a defense” is say find an OL/DE and pray he turns into Lawrence Taylor. That’s it. That’s the whole master plan. Get the one guy. Sack the quarterback. Boom—defense. Brilliant, huh? Get the Bosa’s, the JJ Watt, Mack, or Hendrickson and they win the title for you (or obviously they don’t).
Now today, you actually made some sense. But the second you did, Joe—or whichever version of Joe we’re getting this week—decides to toss a little drive-by snark your way. No real reason.
Apparently, you’re not on the approved list of internet geniuses.
July 4th, 2025 at 7:56 pm
@geno711
Thx guy 👍🏼. I make an occasional good point, even if it’s contrary to some people’s narrative. Unfortunately I do get sidetracked by “those guys” and things quickly turn into poo slinging.
That’s my bad for thinking logical arguments is actually an option (for some people here) in spite of over a year of evidence to the contrary. I can be pretty stubborn in ways – I want to believe people, as a rule are smart, kind, logical, understanding, honest etc.
66 years and you’d think I’d have learned by now….. they’re the exception , not the rule 😔
Maybe he’ll let my last 2 comments post too. They are not inappropriate and the last one is an attempt to get the comments back on topic. Or maybe not 🤞🏼
July 4th, 2025 at 9:40 pm
People need to avoid talking about people’s mommas and daddies…. Mentioning family members in any way can be a “problem”.
Call me a maroon cupcake snowflake extinct reptile or whatever other super creative and entertaining nicknames your simple little mind comes up with…. Who cares.
You really shouldn’t reference family or pets or loved ones bro – it’s just not cool.
—————————-
Back to the topic at hand. It looks like yards per game has little or no direct correlation to w/l % or “success” in the regular season or the playoffs. Or am I missing something?
I don’t have access to any advanced stats sources but I’d be interested in knowing which stats DO have a more obvious impact, if any. Like the ones I listed above = explosive plays, red zone, 3rd down, TURNOVERS, etc.
Of course PPG is king of the stats.
July 5th, 2025 at 10:21 am
I’ve been thinking about all this and IMO it’s easier for an offense to take advantage of defensive injuries than the other way around. If you’re on offense and you know your opponent just brought a guy in off the street to play safety or Corner you can target/run at that player unmercifully. Offenses with a player out can just focus elsewhere- run away from the second string player or throw elsewhere.
It is relevant.
July 5th, 2025 at 2:19 pm
When you combine self-absorbed egotism with low self awareness and a deranged view of reality, then put all ingredients between two slices of bread, it makes a terrible sandwich.
July 5th, 2025 at 3:22 pm
Like I thought…. Nobody wants to tackle the topic of how important ypg actually is (passing in this case) vs how other stats are better indicators of success ? I expected as much from the same guys as usual but I didn’t expect Joe (or one of the Joe’s) to be so averse to discussing alternate info. Oh well 🤷🏼
July 5th, 2025 at 5:48 pm
WHY DID WE EXTEND HIM???
July 5th, 2025 at 6:22 pm
TAMPA 2?
“The term rose to popularity due to the installation and effective execution of this defensive scheme by then-head coach Tony Dungy and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, and the style helped the Buccaneers win Super Bowl XXXVII.
4–3 defense in a Tampa “Under” front, with back 7 falling into Tampa 2 zone coverage. Cornerbacks jam receivers before falling back into their zones. Middle linebacker ensures the deep middle is covered.
Despite being identified with Dungy and the Buccaneers, the roots of the Tampa 2 actually come from the Pittsburgh Steelers and their Steel Curtain defense of the 1970s.[2] Dungy openly admitted that it was based on concepts he’d picked up in Pittsburgh, where he’d played as a safety from 1977 to 1978. “My philosophy is really out of the 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers playbook,” said Dungy during media interviews while at Super Bowl XLI. “That is why I have to laugh when I hear ‘Tampa 2’. Chuck Noll and Bud Carson—that is where it came from, I changed very little.”