It’s All About Coaching
July 2nd, 2025
Learning curve?
Yes, Joe knows the old phrase, “It’s Jimmys and Joes, not X’s and O’s.” While that’s not wrong, Joe is always reminded of what Mike Tanier (then of Football Outsiders) once wrote:
“Nothing drags down talent like bad coaching.”
Tanier was correct. Nothing will lasso talent like bad coaching. Further, great coaching can squeeze the utmost out of whatever talent a player may have, not to mention good coaching will find ways to position players to best make plays.
Per noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp, coaching is why the Bucs offense skyrocketed to the top-three of the NFL last year. Liam Coen’s coaching.
Sharp didn’t notice a major difference in personnel or motion used, or anything out of the ordinary with Coen transitioning from 2023 offensive coordinator Dave Canales.
Well, except for one thing. And Sharp believes it made all the difference in the world: throwing on first downs.
In the just-published “Sharp Football Analysis 2025 Preview,” Sharp notes the biggest help Coen did to jump-start the Bucs offense was running less on first down, which his predecessors Byron Leftwich and Canales loved to do.
Coen made the very smart decision to be pass-first on early downs to start games, something Canales and Leftwich refused to do.
In 2024 in the first half, the Bucs ranked:
#10 in first down pass rate (up from #31 in 2023)
#5 in early down pass rate (up from #25 in 2023)This was a MASSIVE change.
And as a result, first half early down efficiency spiked:
#6 in success rate (53%) (up from #30 in 2023 with 34%)
#8 in EPA (+0.04) (up from #28 in 2023 with -0.15)
#7 in yards/play (6.2) (up from #29 in 2023 with 4.6)…
This was coaching, pure and simple.
Yes it was coaching. To be fair, Sharp added that a critical tool emerged last year that sure helped Coen and the Bucs move the ball. That was a competent running back by the name of Bucky Irving.
But yeah, Coen knew what he was doing. While he may have been a first-time NFL playcaller, he did have experience calling plays in the SEC at Kentucky. So Coen wasn’t like Canales, who was fully green to calling plays.
Joe sure hopes new Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, himself a first-time playcaller, doesn’t have that sort of Canales learning curve.
July 2nd, 2025 at 5:59 am
The Bucs scoring on the first possession was a huge improvement by Coen. Playing with the lead can’t be over emphasized. A big measuring stick for Grizz will be first possession scoring.
July 2nd, 2025 at 6:51 am
I’ve always felt like coaching matters more in football than in most other sports.
July 2nd, 2025 at 7:46 am
Dang..I just broke out in a rash. Just the thought of Leftwich and Canales banging the running back between the center and guard on every 1st down! Bucs ball…”second and 9″.
July 2nd, 2025 at 7:47 am
“So Coen wasn’t like Canales, who was fully green to calling plays.”
IMO, the biggest quality Canales provided was his positive attitude that got Baker’s head in a good place. After all Baker went thru before he came to the Bucs, he needed someone who believed in him. it took a while. Baker was on par with Trask in the beginning, then slowly built solid ground.
Coen, IMO, is a solid play caller. That is what Coen brought to the table. But it was several contributing factors that led to Coen’s success. Of course Bucky. But also a confident Baker and a talented Oline (with good Oline coaching). Baker was the #1 overfall pick for a reason. the talent was always there. Canales, then Coen brought it back to the surface.
What will Grizz bring? These stats show what a great play caller (Coen) can do. I think some of us under appreciate the talent of Coen. But Grizz has a top 5 O-line on the rise, Baker in a strong place, a top RB in Bucky that is on the rise, a WR room that may be the best in the NFL. THAT will cover up a lot of warts for Grizz until he figures it out.
July 2nd, 2025 at 7:49 am
Very true, Tim.
July 2nd, 2025 at 8:21 am
100% support for your position on Canales and Leftwich.
It wasn’t like they hadn’t been alerted to their obsessive need to run on first down, as they couldn’t have possibly been deaf to the thousands of nay sayers that harped on that point ad nauseam. Any minimal research on the NFL’s data base for teams that were successful on first downs, would have proven them wrong.
No, I firmly believe that it was plain and simple their bull headedness.
How can any OC be successful on !st down play calling, when the other team is nearly 100% certain what type play is being called on first down? Even the hot dog vendor in the stands knew what was coming!!
July 2nd, 2025 at 8:35 am
This is probably an underrated point. It’s also why Canales got the gig in Carolina.
July 2nd, 2025 at 8:43 am
Yeah but we have had some coaches who should have returned their pay checks to the Glazers. Jeff Tedford, if he ever got one. Loved him as player but Ray Perkins had some crazy ideas about how to handle NFL players. Byron…Well lets just say Check yo sheet! There are graceful ways to exit the NFL and then there is Mike Smith….Lovie and Rah?
Go Bucs!
July 2nd, 2025 at 9:37 am
Grizz reminds me of a no holes barred kind of guy.
A no risk it no biscuit mentee.
I’m all for thinking outside the box if it doesn’t look like a monkey Fing a football.
It takes dedication and reps to perfect plays outside the box.
You have to practice them over and over.
That means the HC has to buy in.
Man I hope we have some fake punts and plays in general this year.
July 2nd, 2025 at 10:05 am
Coaching matters. Why the offense lept to the top of the league.
And why the pass defense wallows at the bottom, in a passing league, for a coach whose specialty is pass defense.
July 2nd, 2025 at 11:07 am
I keep seeing these comments about Bowles being (or becoming?) a terrible DC as head coach, which I suppose is convenient for casual fans. I won’t try to defend some of his questionable late game decisions… or the constant soft zone with no pass rush- but if you look at the players his coaching staff had to field on D by even midway through last season- It’s too simple to say he and his staff failed the defense or that he’s just a bad coach.
Give me a relatively healthy defensive unit through the season with a repeat of last year and I’ll be the first to join these critics. But I’m betting on massive improvements. It starts up front. We witnessed that with the transformation of our OLine. Coaching and playcalling matter- of course they do. But having the players who can execute is crucial.
Funny- I see a ton of parallels with Sirianni’s situation a couple seasons ago
July 2nd, 2025 at 11:43 am
Coen did a good job when you look at the entire 2024 season, but he wasn’t very good in the Commanders’ playoff game.
Paralysis by over-analysis?
July 2nd, 2025 at 12:59 pm
By the end of the 2023 season Canales’ offense was playing much better than it was at the beginning. So much that the Bucs were playing well enough to at least make it to the Divisional Round and close enough to smell a Conference Championship game. Game ended or was given away on a breakdown of his protect the Ball at all cost Philosophy. Can’t lay that on Canales.
Much of Coen’s success came from groundwork laid by the guy before him and another year of experience of the Line working as a unit. An addition in the draft helped too.
New OC will have a better chance of offensive success with what he has been handed vs what Coen walked into @ Jax.
Plenty of QB’s would have had success in 2024 with the Bucs but put any on the Giant’s 2024 squad, including Mayfield, and they still would have had 3rd pick in the draft.
July 2nd, 2025 at 1:01 pm
Recent success makes some folks forget where we came from and how we got here.
Arians was a super coach. Said he didn’t call much but was just overseeing all his great assistants. Sure, Jan. We don’t believe you, and his handiwork was all over the no-risk-it-no-biscuit offense.
Then Leftwich took the job under Bowles. He still had the GOAT, but he had some challenges as well. (1). Leftwich had to do something different just to show he was his own man. (2). Todd demanded more running. The one yard and a cloud of dust offense was born. It failed. Leftwich may not have been totally at fault but he was totally responsible.
Candles was a different cat. He also came in with orders to run the ball, and it didn’t seem like Bowles got upset with his work. The fans did. But IIRC, and Defense Rules can back me up, the play calls got more daring, or at least more aggressive towards the end of the season. What’s more, Canales was brought in to deal with a shattered veteran psyche, just as he had in Seattle. You can criticize Canales for his play calls but you better give him his due as a leader and motivator.
El Serpiente came in with the reputation of being a good technician. He was a great technician. And while Bucky sure was good he wasn’t the key to success. Coen spread the wealth and sure would have cooked up great results with #13 and 14 had they stayed on the field. And he adjusted with Otton and White even before Bucky took off. The question with him is his ceiling: he was a great coordinator for us — not in the Arians league to be honest but very, very good — but he didn’t display all what it takes to be a good head coach. May be wrong, but there could be a ceiling to hm.
Griz comes to the job with lots of talent on the team. He has shown the technical skill to choose plays and the flexibility to coach in several systems. Now need to see him come up with and call a whole game.
And that’s the way it is.
July 2nd, 2025 at 1:05 pm
Joe wrote an article with the data. Todd’s pass defense has had one year where they were 10th. The rest, 20th or worse.
Facts.
July 2nd, 2025 at 1:34 pm
IF you believe Liam was a good OC then the Griz hiring should comfort you.
Grizz spent last year at Liam’s right hand working out 3rd down offense. Griz has ALREADY been intimately involved in the SUCCESSFUL Bucs offense! This is just a continuation.
Grizz is in a better spot than Liam was coming in. Liam was getting at an age where he was thinking next “career” move while Griz doesn’t have to worry about that. He is a YOUNG guy. In a perfect world Todd wins the SB and retires and Griz moves up to HC and becomes the next “Sean McVay” and goes on a tear with first Baker then his successor. Might as well dream big right?
July 2nd, 2025 at 3:31 pm
Great coaching is always going to help players become better. However; If a team wants to be great it needs great players along with great drafting. Great coaching only win championships with great Jimmies and Joes!
July 2nd, 2025 at 3:31 pm
Aqualung … ‘Joe wrote an article with the data. Todd’s pass defense has had one year where they were 10th. The rest, 20th or worse. Facts.’
I agree that ‘Facts are facts’, BUT … it’s easy to come to cherry-picked conclusions if you only focus on 1 or 2 sets of facts. Yes Todd Bowles’ defenses Passing Yardage rankings have been quite bad IMO … WHEN LOOKED AT IN ISOLATION. But if each year’s rankings are viewed in the context of the TOTAL passing defense game, a somewhat different picture can emerge.
That TOTAL passing defense can be looked at in terms of (1) Passing Attempts; (2) Passing Yardage Allowed; (3) Passing TDs Allowed; (4) Interceptions Made; (5) Net Yards Per Attempt; and (6) 1st Downs Allowed. How our defense ranks in EACH category is critically important, and the picture in totality better defines a defense’s passing defense effectiveness than simply looking Passing Yards Allowed. The relationships are important.
For example, Todd’s Run Defenses are usually very good, and as a consequence opponents normally choose to pass more rather than run more against us. Thus the Passing Attempts are very high usually, as would be our ranking. So it shouldn’t be unusual for Passing Yardage Allowed to ALSO be high (opponents are throwing more), and for Passing TDs to be high also. But interestingly, that’s NOT what’s been consistently happening.
Look at the rankings for each of those (1) to (6) categories I noted above, from 2019 – 2024 …
2019: Attempts #32 – Yards #30 – TDs #25 – INTs #17 – NY/A #12 – 1st Downs 222
2020: Attempts #29 – Yards #21 – TDs #20 – INTs #7 – NY/A #8 – 1st Downs 215
2021: Attempts #32 – Yards #21 – TDs #13 – INTs #8 – NY/A #4 – 1st Downs 214
2022: Attempts #18 – Yards #9 – TDs #28 – INTs #24 – NY/A #6 – 1st Downs 186
2023: Attempts #27 – Yards #29 – TDs #17 – INTs #17 – NY/A #25 – 1st Downs 213
2024: Attempts #31 – Yards #29 – TDs #19 – INTs #26 – NY/A #15 – 1st Downs 212
Thus while it looks like 2022 was our best Pass Defense (from a Passing Yards Allowed ranking of #9), it was actually our WORST Pass Defense year (based on Passing TDs Allowed ranking of #28 (we allowed 29 Passing TDs that year). It was also our worst record (8-9). We emphasized Pass Defense over Run Defense that year apparently, and that’s the ONLY year that a Todd Bowles defense gave up OVER 2,000 yards rushing. Opponents figured out what we were doing quickly, and ran on us MUCH MORE than in any other year (458 times).
I’m convinced that Todd Bowles measures his defense’s effectiveness mostly based on POINTS ALLOWED. Remember that we finished 13-4 in 2021 with a defense that ranked #21 in Passing Yards Allowed. But look at the REST OF THE DEFENSIVE PICTURE that year and it all starts to make sense. And remember, that was the year we had Vea, Suh, JPP, Shaq and many other beasts playing at Mach 10.
July 2nd, 2025 at 7:08 pm
Lol 😂😂 here comes the new scapegoat just like Byron Leftwich lol 🤣🤣.
July 2nd, 2025 at 8:24 pm
So not being predictable actually helps an offense… who knew?
Also, there wasn’t a difference in motion from Canales? Humm, from the eyeball test it certainly seemed like there was. Also the scheme was very different with the offensive line doing a lot more movement, and there being a lot of misdirection.
But this does back up what literally everyone said for years – stop running up the middle on first down. And no, when you’re down 21 points in the 2nd half and you just throw on every first down, that isn’t balance, Mr Leftwich.
July 2nd, 2025 at 8:27 pm
Defense Rules – Good job with the stats, love seeing the effort and backing up your thoughts with the numbers. Even before I got to the end, I was saying in 2022 the Bucs gave up a ton of yards rushing which is why the pass defense looked better – which you said as well.
Also in 2019 it’s worth remember how incredibly bad the defense was early on as they were learning the new scheme and breaking in a young secondary.
July 3rd, 2025 at 2:20 am
Stats are awesome and cherry-picking is not.
BA came in on Jason’s offer and cumulatively went 36-19, including 5 playoff wins. When his DC reported to him, the defense performed well enough and earned a reputation.
Since BA’s DC has reported to himself, the pass defense has worsened each year. If you gave BA 30ppg, he’d get 12 wins a year with Todd or someone else coaching defense. Excuses will be made.
July 3rd, 2025 at 3:55 pm
Aqualung Says:
July 3rd, 2025 at 2:20 am
Stats are awesome and cherry-picking is not.
——————-
Says the man who hangs his hat on ONE STAT = passing yards allowed.
While ignoring stats that actually matter = PPG. 🤡