Did Liam Coen Find The Key To Unlocking Baker Mayfield’s Success?
June 30th, 2025
Interesting research.
Joe has referred several times to how the Bucs ran a dink-and-dunk offense last year, despite that tag irking then-Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen.
The proof was in the pudding. The Bucs almost always threw short, and the offense was one of the best in the league. Baker Mayfield had a career year.
Perhaps there was a reason for that?
In research cobbled together by Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis, he seems to have found a reason why Coen wanted to throw short so often. It seems as if that’s the passing attack Mayfield thrived in.
When he threw the ball within 2.5 seconds from the snap, Mayfield completed 77.8% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
When he held the ball longer than that, he completed 63% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
That’s a pretty big difference. Joe has no idea what that may mean other than Mayfield is more accurate perhaps with short passes?
New Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard has noted several times while he plans to largely keep the same offense, Grizzard also wants to incorporate more longer passes.
Given how few times the Bucs threw long last year and their deep stable of receivers, throwing longer passes stands to reason.
But it will be interesting to Joe how Mayfield produces with longer passes because that generally means he won’t be throwing within 2.5 seconds of the snap.
June 30th, 2025 at 12:27 am
I think Coen got the run game rolling and that changed everything. Balanced offense was the key.
June 30th, 2025 at 2:05 am
Extremely successful running + play action can lead to very long completed passes. Freeze those safeties. It will always be a lot easier that way.
June 30th, 2025 at 2:25 am
Coen’s scheme was great! But, sometimes his play calling was awful. When Coen put Baker in the shotgun waiting for deep routes to open, too often, Baker got baked.
If the Bucs want to throw deeper, they have to scheme it with play action, roll outs, etc. Go four receivers with White and Godwin or Tucker in opposing slots and crashing into the edge rushers before picking a sort spot to run to. At 2.3 seconds, Evans and Egbuka should be twenty yards downfield field ready for a pass with twenty-five yards in the air if Bakers hits one of them in stride.
Of course, include something longer in the route tree in case there is no effective rush. But, be ready to hit a short quick route or throw the ball away.
June 30th, 2025 at 3:58 am
That’s a remarkable difference in performance: 77.8% completions, 27 TDs & only 3 INTs within 2.5 secs but 63% completions, 14 TDs & 13 INTs if over 2.5 secs.
So many things could be in play as to reasons why. Play design? No progressions needed? Are the receivers just more open on those short passes because the defenders are still trying to figure out what’s about to happen?
Bottom line to me is that IF that’s what it takes for Baker to succeed, continue to ride that pony until teams show that they can stop it.
Bucs’ RBs as RECEIVERS were a critical part of those numbers, and probably don’t get enough credit for that part of their performance.
o Irving: 90.4% Catch Percentage (47 of 52) – 392 yds – Minus 2.9 YBC/R – 528 Yds After Catch – 11.2 YAC/R – 0 INTs
o R White: 89.5% Catch Percentage (51 of 57) – 393 yds – Minus 2.4 YBC/R – 516 Yds After Catch – 10.1 YAC/R – 0 INTs
o Tucker: 75.0% Catch Percentage (9 of 12) – 109 yds – 0.4 YBC/R – 105 Yds After Catch – 11.7 YAC/R – 0 INTs
Those are some spectacular numbers for all 3 of our RBs. Even though they’re all catching the ball on average at or behind the LOS, all 3 have an average of over 10 Yds AFTER the Catch. And considering that the 3 of them caught 107 of Baker’s 407 completions (over 25%) at an average Catch Percentage of 88.4% for the 3 of them, I’d say that our RBs made a huge contribution to our passing attack AND to Baker’s success.
June 30th, 2025 at 4:32 am
Could be on to something there Joe. Did we roll Baker out much last year? I don’t recall that being used much. It can help with the pass rush and it seems like Baker has been fairly accurate on such plays. Could be wrong on this though.
Go Bucs!
June 30th, 2025 at 5:26 am
I would bet most QBs have similar stats vs time to throw.
June 30th, 2025 at 5:29 am
DR, you out did yourself. Very interesting stats regarding our RBs. 25% of Baker’s yards with 10 yards YAC is a big contribution to our passing game.
June 30th, 2025 at 5:44 am
The short pass game does 2 things, gets the ball out of your QBs hands and doesn’t force him to make passes over the middle of the formation that he cannot see . So you work the ball around to your RBs and TEs, but for the most part you’ll always have the defense in front of you.
It’s why the YAC is so important and why I find it weird people want to push Rachaad out the door. Both years ‘23 & ‘24 he(and Otton) were the bailout targets for Baker by design and when plays broke down. We ranked 6th league-wide in yards after catch, but 29th in air yards per catch. That tells this some of this story and how we can build on it, especially with the added talent at WR the last 2 seasons.
It’s not “bad” but it’s also why you hear talk of improving our downfield pass game in attempts to generate more explosives. Gotta be able to show defenses another layer to this pass attack. I’d also say Canales laid the foundation, & Coen came in and just built on it. 3rd year in a row with a New OC? How’s an about 3rd year in a row to with a new OC who’s never had the OC job in the NFL before?
June 30th, 2025 at 5:52 am
Could it be the times he held the ball longer were times his receivers were covered? The secret with Baker as with most QBs is getting the ball out in rythem, not so much as getting it out fast. There’s a big difference between throwing deep on play action, and throwing deep from the shotgun waiting for a long route to open. Baker off play action would be the best way to add some deep shots to this offense. This way he’s still getting the ball out quickly, but more importantly on time.
June 30th, 2025 at 7:29 am
The time to deliver the football has always been dictated by the teams front 5 protection. It’s true for any team It’s a team sport and individual efforts can be limited.
June 30th, 2025 at 8:09 am
I’m like Coen, thinking ‘dink and dunk’ is pejorative. I call it a Bill Walsh offense.
Throwing on rhythm is the goal. A QB holding onto the ball usually leads to bad things like holding calls, sacks, strip-sack fumbles, or INTs.
Looking at Baker’s picks, he threw 6 when targeting J-Mac. Some were on J-Mac – a ball going through his hands, and another when the defender took a catch out of his hands. The other 4 seemed to be late throws where Baker didn’t see a defender. I’d like to see Bake scramble more to the sides where he doesn’t run for yards but extends the passing play and get better vision of the field.
June 30th, 2025 at 8:27 am
Dink and Dunk is an effective part of a balanced passing attack , but if you have trouble throwing deeper to stretch the field it’s going to weaken your passing attack. Without a doubt other teams have noticed this too and are making plans to counter it, seems most team are improving their pass rushers, so beware of blitzes and man to man coverages, 2.5 seconds goes away quickly under pressure.
June 30th, 2025 at 8:31 am
Is Liam the reason for Baker’s success? Joe, you can fool some of the people some of the time. Heismann winner. First pick. 7-5-1 rookie record with a team that had lost 35 of their previous 36. Set NFL rookie TD mark in 13 games. By his third year almost made a Super Bowl run. 48 points in the playoffs against the Steelers. Tore his labrum third game of 4th year. Idiot coach let him play and wait for required surgery. Signed his replacement while he was healing after surgery. Then spent his 5th year in Carolina. Opening game against Cleveland at Carolina. Baker did Baker stuff and drove them to go ahead touchdown with 45 seconds left. Cleveland hit 57 yard field goal with no time left. Anyone remember Baker’s first year here? Houston game? I do. That same 5th year he goes to LA and garners national attention his 4th day there. NFL record last minute drive. Finishes that 5th year hanging 56 points in Sean Payton and the Broncos. Signs and plays his sixth and seventh seasons here in Tampa. Baker Mayfield has been a great football player for a whole bunch of years straight. And no. Liam Coen was not the key to it. The fact is Todd Bowles and Jason Licht and yes even Bruce Arians are responsible for it. And the rest of the Buccaneers world that had the sense to see what many couldn’t. People like Rod Munch and his buddy Oneilbuc. But that’s another story.
June 30th, 2025 at 9:18 am
The RB’s were absolutely crucial to the passing game last year, it’s like an extended handoff trying to get them 1 on 1 with a LB or safety and make them miss then go. It’s a no brainer that the shorter the hold time the better the % completion is cause it’s coming out so fast, see Brady. With the receivers, TE’s and RB’s we have it will cause major problems for defense’s this year. Just the WR’s alone will increase the % down field because the D will be on their heels as to who to cover.
June 30th, 2025 at 9:19 am
Kenton Smith – add to this the fact that Baker was highly successful in college throwing the ball long. I think the key point is that when he throws ‘on time and in rhythm, he’s accurate’. He has the ability to scramble and make short throws that way, but when he scrambles and tries to go long, it does not usually work out.
June 30th, 2025 at 10:43 am
Where’s the context? How does Mayfield’s release time stats compare to the stats for all passes thrown in the 2024 season?