Maybe Josh Grizzard Should Tinker With Bucs Offense
June 29th, 2025
How much change?
Joe has three core beliefs when it comes to winning football:
1. Play good, smart, solid fundamental football and everything will fall into place. Confession: Joe stole this from Bill Walsh.
2. The quarterback must go down. And he must go down hard. Joe also stole this. It came from Al Davis.
3. Don’t fix something not broken. Joe didn’t get this from anyone. It’s a genuine belief.
Last year there was nothing wrong with the Bucs offense, even though it was a dink-and-dunk offense. Joe wrote that and got called out by then-Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen. But it was true. The Bucs rarely threw farther than 20 yards downfield.
But guess what? It worked. The Bucs had one of the best offenses in the game in 2024.
Now there is all sorts of data demonstrating Bucs receiver Mike Evans is still, at 31, one of the best go-route receivers in the game. A go-route is almost always used on deep passes.
Despite this, Coen kept the offense in mostly a dink-and-dunk format. Again, it worked very well.
So the following was interesting to Joe: Famed handicapper-turned-stathead Warren Sharp listed how many completions each team had of 25 or more air yards. The Bucs had just 10, which reinforces the NextGen Stats data that claims the Bucs didn’t often throw long passes. You know, dink-and-dunk.
Only three playoff teams had fewer than 10 passes of 25 or more air yards. They were Los Angeles, Detroit and Kansas City (Detroit really surprised Joe).
While Joe isn’t big on tinkering with something that isn’t broken, would it be beneficial for the Bucs to have more long passes than just 10 in 17 games?
New Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard hinted several times that might just be the case. But Joe has to wonder if that may negatively affect the offense? Again, the Bucs were a dink-and-dunk team that excelled.
Should the Bucs get away, ever so slightly, from an offense that worked? Being so loaded at receiver, maybe they should throw long more often?
Even if that deviates from one of Joe’s core football beliefs.
completions of 25+ air yards:
22 – GB
21
20 – PIT, MIN
29
18 – IND
17 – LAC, CIN
16
15
14
13 – TEN, PHI
12 – BUF, SEA, DEN, LV, CAR
11 – BAL, WAS, NO, SF, JAX, HOU, DAL, NE, NYJ
10 – TB, CHI
9 – ATL,NYG
8 – LAR,DET
7 – CLE
6 – KC
5 – ARI, MIA*2024 regular season
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 24, 2025
June 29th, 2025 at 12:23 am
You need receivers other than Mike that can track the long ball and if Baker has a weakness, it’s accuracy on longer passes. You also seem to get more pass interference calls on longer passes. So it’s a mixed bag but let’s go for it!
#1 offense in the league is coming!
June 29th, 2025 at 1:31 am
One extra ‘long’ ball per game would more than double our numbers and put us in the league lead.
One extra long ball per game isn’t a major “fix”. It’s barely an adjustment.
Tell me you wouldn’t like to see Mike put up 15-20 TD’s this season!
June 29th, 2025 at 1:32 am
Or more.
June 29th, 2025 at 1:54 am
🙂
June 29th, 2025 at 5:02 am
I am right with you believing, “If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it.”
There are times that minor tweaks are needed along the way. Sort of like going to the doctor when you absolutely need to. Offense doesn’t need to yet.
On the other hand Joe, you raised good reasoning. With our strong offense, what to do? Sort of scary to change course, but yet could be the right plan of action and get more points on the board before the 4th quarter, or it could go the other way. It’s a risk. No matter what, can’t wait to see what Grizz has in store for offense.
June 29th, 2025 at 6:12 am
Umm…How many were thrown and not completed? What was the completion pecentage? I saw a bunch of misses on the long balls. Not just those intended for Mike.
Go Bucs!
June 29th, 2025 at 6:22 am
If Mike is in single coverage, you got to try it
June 29th, 2025 at 6:27 am
Coen found an offensive strategy that worked, and worked well. To the tune of us scoring 502 points on the season, almost 30 PPG average.
See Rule #3: ‘Don’t fix something that’s not broken’.
Ironically though, we didn’t always meet Rule #1’s mantra in the process: ‘Play good, smart, solid fundamental football and everything will fall into place’. Having the most INTs in the NFL is NOT solid fundamental football. Compiling 466 offensive penalty yards is NOT playing smart football. And in the process of that, our QB was sacked too many times on the year, making Rule #2 (‘the QB must go down’) tenuous.
I’m sure that the Bucs can play ‘smarter’ football. Also sure that Baker can reduce the number of INTs and also sacks. Whether we can do that IF we return to emphasizing the deep ball more is anyone’s guess. I like Rule #3 though.
June 29th, 2025 at 6:27 am
Tinker with NEVER calling a jet sweep deep in your own territory in a playoff game.
June 29th, 2025 at 6:47 am
DR, I completely agree. With this being the second year of the same offense (with tweaks for the OC change), the focus should be on taking the whole thing and making it better.
This means a few less INTs and sacks, a few more long balls, and just the general overall improvement that familiarity should bring. I don’t think that’s too much of an expectation to have going into this year.
June 29th, 2025 at 6:47 am
Interesting…”dink and dunk” offense and yet, the fastest WR on the field, Trey Palmer was barely a hiccup.
June 29th, 2025 at 7:04 am
no
June 29th, 2025 at 7:27 am
With Grizz coming from Miami, I expect him to run some of their plays. But Miami, with Waddle and Hill, was at the bottom of the list above with only 5!
Looking at the top teams on the list, they generally aren’t playoff teams. The best scoring offense, Detroit, only had 8 completions – less than the Bucs.
To me, this metric has nothing to do with good offenses or being a playoff team.
I like Bill Walsh’s short passes because you have a very high completion percentage, sacks are rare, picks are rare, and holding penalties are reduced.
Baker isn’t great with long throws as he tends to throw lasers and without much air under the ball:
1-10 air yds 78% completions
10-20 62%
over 20 43%
June 29th, 2025 at 7:29 am
I agree with Garro. The questions was how many were attempted? Where are we in completion %?
June 29th, 2025 at 7:36 am
Hey Joe, as long as your first two core beliefs are accomplished, deviating from No. 3 shouldn’t be a problem. As others have pointed out, Baker’s accuracy seems to diminish on long throws. However, throwing long more often should result in increased production. And, if the D plays sound football (No. 1) and we get the QB on the ground more frequently (No. 2), the offense will be rewarded more possessions. All in all, it should work out well. (Again, assuming we achieve the first two goals.)
June 29th, 2025 at 7:40 am
No risk it, no biscuit.
June 29th, 2025 at 7:51 am
Have a feeling JG is going to work in a little run, run, pass, punt excitement for us! Like the good ole days!
June 29th, 2025 at 8:24 am
Are there not any “defensive” thoughts for our offense? That is do we not believe the offense can have a lot of effect on the defense especially when it comes to TOP!
The Bucs “appear” to have an offense that can operate in many different ways with plenty of targets, a trio of gifted RB’s, and one of the youngest OL’s in the league. IE Might they not wish to simply control the game from the outest?
If that means dink and dunk and create openings for Bucky in the running game and just never surrender the ball until it’s in the end zone!
I loved BA’s “no risk it”offense but I love winning more than anything and the Bucs offense may have reached that nirvana where they don’t “need” to risk anything and just simply come out and kick some serious butt including TOP!!!
June 29th, 2025 at 8:41 am
Lt. Dan.
Keep in mind that the Miami had a down year with Tua out and Hill only had a wrist injury he played with all year. Hill had about an 11 yard average per catch with under 1000 yards, he’s usually a 18/1800 guy. Miami was top 1-3 in the league in most all the offensive stats in ‘22 & ‘23. Last season was an anomaly.
*I’m no Dolphin fan, just familiar with them because of fantasy football.
June 29th, 2025 at 8:59 am
Grizzard will definitely put his own spin on the offense. Teams have film on the Bucs offense, it would be incompetent to bring everything back without changes.
June 29th, 2025 at 9:01 am
Woody Hayes said only 3 things happen when you throw the ball and 2 of them are not good. Well there is a 4th: PI so it is 50/50. Down and distance has a play in it as does the defensive alignment but a few more long balls won’t hurt. Just as you can’t give up on the run to try to keep the D honest so too with the long ball.
June 29th, 2025 at 9:04 am
That most definitely was Not a “Dink and Dunk offense. Dink and dunk is not an insult, just a reality. –Joe Matter of factually, there is no such thing as a dink and dunk offense. This list is completions, and let’s not forget that the Bucs lost Chris Godwin for the season, and Mike Evans for 3 games (after hurting his hammy on his second touchdown of the game). They had to spend the next 3 games without their top targets. Also they started running the ball more in a gap scheme. Yeah.. don’t fix what iant broken. If they had Mike and Chris just for those 3 games, this number would be higher, but again it doesn’t matter. It would also be higher if receivers caught more of their targets, and if baker threw every single deep ball perfect. Football isnt perfect, but they got damn close in my opinion last year. Dink and Dunk… psh! They were one of the most exciting and watchable offenses in the league!
Trash take.
June 29th, 2025 at 9:06 am
Offense needs tweeking in a couple areas.
1. More runs. Irving and Tucker should each be getting about 15 carries a game. Those 2 are too good, the offensive line is too good and Baker makes too many mistakes for the Bucs to just be willy nilly throwing the ball all over the place. It cost them the Dallas game and nearly cost them the Panthers game.
2. Phase White completely OUT. There’s a direct negative correlation between White touching the ball and the Bucs scoring/winning. Ira keeps talking about his improved 4.3 ypc but that isn’t impressive compared to Irving’s 5.4 and Tucker’s 6.2. 4.3 ypc makes White look BAD Ira. Oh you want to make a big deal about his receiving? When White had 3 or more receptions the Bucs were 1-7 with 25 points per game. 2 receptions or less? 8-0 with 38 points per game. They don’t need him, he makes the offense worse.
June 29th, 2025 at 9:56 am
I never thought of a Dink and Dunk offense as a pejorative but it seems lots of people do. To me, it’s just shorter high percentage throws and gets the ball out of the Qbs hands. It should help keep the team out of 3 and long. I guess now that I think of it there are sayings like ‘chicks dig the long ball’. Go big or go home. Maybe people feel like it’s more macho to throw deep all the time. I would like the Bucs to do it successfully a few times early in the year and every once in a while just to keep the opposing defenses honest. If they think you’re incapable of it they will stack the box and make your life much harder.
June 29th, 2025 at 9:58 am
Everyone needs to revisit the Cowboys games. We were exposed big time, and the formula was set on how to stop this offense.
Dallas’ defense led by Micah Parsons was not bad and had enough talent to be a problem. They appear to use a pretty simple formula against us, stifle the run game early, little to no gain on first down, 2nd and 10 and Liam goes to his bag of tricks that originates behind the line of scrimmage, Lee would call it, the “dink and dunk” plays. Dallas’ defense was too talented to not see it coming… then all of sudden on 3rd and long, Tampa tries to go vertical and simply put, Baker was not comfortable in that position. Our Oline showed some weakness in pass protection. Baker’s pocket always appeared to be collapsing before the play could form downfield. I think he ran for 60 yards in that game, and as I’ve mentioned before, that’s not always a good thing, nor is it something we want Baker doing by necessity.
Yes, we need more vertical plays, doesn’t have to be bombs, but we have to stretch the field to keep defenses honest. Additionally, I know Bucky is the more talented RB, but underutilizing White could be a problem for both the offense and Bucky. We were successful early on with Bucky when no one saw him coming. Taking a 3-down role in this offense might not be the best decision for success, but I’m sure they know more than me on the matter. I’m hoping for a big year from him.
June 29th, 2025 at 10:07 am
That’s a busted Azz take on White. When Rach has production catching the ball out of the backfield the Bucs lose. That’s your take?
What’s with the screen name? Michael Husted is a friend of mine and was a really good NFL level kicker. Top 5 kicker in Bucs history.
June 29th, 2025 at 10:15 am
Re-watch the Dallas game. It provided the formula of how to beat this football team, while exposing our offensive line issues with pass blocking.
We need to be able to stretch the field in order to keep the defense honest.
June 29th, 2025 at 11:18 am
Baker didn’t really have the time to get the ball 25 yards down field. After the Detroit game, it was mostly…..get the ball out quickly..it was a great strategy, one that fans were calling for to help the O-Line. He may have more time this season!
June 29th, 2025 at 11:25 am
@Stanglassman
When White had the backfield to himself in 2023 the Bucs were dead last in yards and ypc. The 2024 stats are overwhelmingly against him getting touches. I don’t know how this is even a discussion. He’s one of the most inefficient runners in the league and his receiving numbers obviously do not move the needle like I cited.
And I couldn’t care less about who you’re friends with.
June 29th, 2025 at 11:29 am
@Zoocomics
Bucs were #1 in pass block efficiency. The #1 issue in the Dallas game was Coen being completely pass heavy a defense that was #30 in rushing yards per attempt against. 50 pass calls and just 19 RB rushes vs that defense? And then all of you dopes spent the entire week blaming Bowles.
June 29th, 2025 at 12:06 pm
Statistically Tom Brady threw more short passess than anybody, especially in 2014. Patrick Mahomes is another king of the short passess. We better just leave things alone until Grizzard gets real comfortable.
June 29th, 2025 at 12:11 pm
And by the way on long passes of 20 yards or more Baker ranks 7th completing them in 2024. I’m not sure where it came from that Baker can’t throw long but probably from the same place that his arm was weak and his arm was inaccurate and he couldn’t scramble. 😂
June 29th, 2025 at 12:18 pm
Husted 71.8% really isn’t willy-nilly. Baker makes so many mistakes he ran the 3rd best scoring offense in the league, with second and third string receivers. 😳