NFL.com Takes A Stab At Bucs’ Win-Loss Total
May 20th, 2025
Cynthia Frelund has a surprise.
Bucs fans, please don’t be mad at NFL.com stats queen Cynthia Frelund. She actually has your back.
But wait, Joe! How can she have Bucs fans’ backs while projecting the Bucs to win less than 10 games? As the great eastern philosopher Moe Howard famously said, “We shall see.”
Frelund hopped on what she likes to call her “models” (Kate Upton and her gal pals?) to determine the win-loss totals for the Bucs. She has the Bucs winning 9.7 games.
(Before someone asks, “How do you win a seventh of a game?” — just play along, you know?)
In the first seven weeks, the Bucs face four games against teams I forecasted to win their respective divisions: at Houston (Week 2 on Monday Night Football), vs. Philadelphia (Week 4), vs. San Francisco (Week 6) and at Detroit (Week 7 on MNF). That stretch — combined with Weeks 11 and 12, when Tampa must face the Bills and Rams on the road — drives the Bucs’ win total under 10 games. Don’t be too mad, though, because I have them winning the NFC South for the fifth straight season.
Yeah, well, with a possible new playoff rule being put into effect this week, that nine-win season might just cost the Bucs a home playoff game. Thanks, Rog.
Joe can see a path to 11 wins. But that four-game stretch with the Eagles, 49ers, Seahawks and Lions likely will define the season for the Bucs. If the Bucs can win two of those games, that’s fine. If they can pull out three wins, that would be excellent.
Would that force Frelund to then pick the Bucs over her beloved Lions if the two meet again in the playoffs?
May 20th, 2025 at 12:14 am
If we stay healthy, 13.
May 20th, 2025 at 12:16 am
I had them 10-7 in my initial game-by-game predictions. Could still go up from there before the season – but I doubt I’d go lower unless they have some major injuries in the preseason.
May 20th, 2025 at 12:16 am
joe says:
But that four-game stretch with the Eagles, 49ers, Seahawks and Lions likely will define the season for the Bucs.
———-
i somehow think we go 3-1 in those 4 games…i’m thinking we get our arses handed to us on a silver platter in detroit…but we win the 2 home games…eagles in the heat…and finally get one on the 9ers…
and go across country to seattle for a good win there
May 20th, 2025 at 12:19 am
I see 8-10 wins the way the defense finished the season last year…..
Bowels resume is that his teams hover around .500…
May 20th, 2025 at 12:22 am
10 to 12 wins floor to ceiling…
but if we get major injuries and the season unravels, it could be a disastrous 8-9 wins…
but if injuries are not out of the ordinary, i see us winning 11…
people thinking 13 and 14 are not being realistic…
i see us going like 4-2 in division…so that’s 2 losses…
losing in detroit…
definitely losing one or the other vs buffalo and the rams…
we will have one game we just simply don’t show up for…it happens every year…
that’s 5 losses right there…
and throw in one more for good measure…
11-6
May 20th, 2025 at 12:30 am
Playing Seattle and LA Rams on the road is tough; Buffalo not so much.
Odds are that the Bucs will lose some games somewhere. But, straight up, I would take the Bucs in any game except those west coast trips.
Healthy and 13 wins sounds like a good call. 10-7 for a floor unless a sinkhole swallows the training facility with the team in it.
May 20th, 2025 at 12:30 am
Joe, say it ain’t so! She is picking the Niners , Eagles, and Lions as Division winners. Her view is skewed Joe. Houston should win their division but all four of those teams aren’t getting better. Some of us can see that. Some of us see a bare midriff, blond hair, and bare feet. Joe. Joe! We should be the favorites in every game we line up this year except the Rams and Bills. I’m thinking 13-4
May 20th, 2025 at 12:59 am
Uh, .7 isn’t a seventh. That would be seven-tenths. #GotMath
May 20th, 2025 at 1:20 am
you guys with the 13-4 thing…geez…
please understand in our finest regular season ever, our top record was 13-4…
we are not going to tie that regular season record, this season…
we will come relatively close tho…
there is a slim chance we can grab 12…you never know…
but keep in mind…our coach is todd bowles…and he’s never won anything close to 13 as a HC
May 20th, 2025 at 1:21 am
11 wins
May 20th, 2025 at 1:24 am
there are def a few trap games in the schedule…
let’s not forget it still is “a buc’s life”… 🙂
a trap game will prolly catch up with us…
the trap games are:
N.O. (before the bye)
pats
arizona
miami
May 20th, 2025 at 1:29 am
She predicted 7.5 wins for t he Bucs last year. Link in my name.
She was 2.5 game off then.
Add 2.5 to 9.7? 12.2.
May 20th, 2025 at 4:15 am
@adam, entitled to your opinion just like the rest of us are, no need to be a doosh…i can jab too but its not worth it….just remember what we did in the draft and off season, plus injured players who are hopefully healed and back to 100%. Thats where Im coming from…. it might be a little wishful thinking and thats fine too.
May 20th, 2025 at 4:51 am
Butterface.. She has us winning 9.7 games? Sweetheart you can win 9 games, or ten games. There is no .7 game.
May 20th, 2025 at 5:19 am
If the offense plays anywhere close to how it did last year, and if Bowles can resume defensive chess master status, and if we stay at least average level healthy… we could be a 13 or 14 win team.
If we hit that mid season slump that we have the last several years, get plagued by injuries again, and our defense continues to play pass defense like swiss cheese… we might just be a 9.7 win team… which will still be enough to clench the NFC South.
May 20th, 2025 at 5:31 am
After looking at some things and seeing where we are, especially at Safety, I think we should go after Justin Simmons. A nice vet presence and he can still play. Im just not feeling so comfortable with this safety group right now. Plus he would be a great rotational player back there if Tykee has any issues.
May 20th, 2025 at 6:18 am
Adam
Don’t disagree with your take at all.
“it could be a disastrous 8-9 wins…”
I must say however that it says a LOT about the Tampa franchise when 8-9 wins is a disaster. Not disagreeing actually celebrating.
“there are def a few trap games in the schedule…”
I might disagree slightly with this observation. IMHO there are 17 TRAP games.
I’m old school and I believe the NFL succeeded at creating parity beyond their wildest dreams. It’s a cliche, I get it, but cliches generally arise from some kernel of truth.
‘ON ANY GIVEN SUNDAY!”
May 20th, 2025 at 6:47 am
So if we go by how far Frelund is always off, 12.2 wins? I can round that down to 12 wins. 12 and 5 works for me.
As soon as I read this article I recalled that she GUESSED (cuz calling it a model is just a techy name) way lower for us last year as well and then I saw BucBonz’s post.
Yep, she’s a closet Buc disrespector… unlike Kay.
May 20th, 2025 at 6:58 am
i pick 9 or 8 Bowles as usual. 9.7….? DEI strikes again.
May 20th, 2025 at 7:21 am
Sign Gronkowski!!!
May 20th, 2025 at 7:25 am
The offence will still be solid behind Baker Mayfield but Todd’s defense will still be the problem. The unit will be improved in quarters 1-3 but in the 4th quarter Todd’s don’t bend but break D won’t be able to hold leads,…… 8-9
May 20th, 2025 at 7:41 am
We’re going 17-0 this season, you downers! Perhaps not but it’s just as likely as other possibilities. We have a great team coming together, but even Nostradamus couldn’t predict how we’ll end up. So I’m sticking with predicting an undefeated season until we lose our first game.
May 20th, 2025 at 7:49 am
9 to 10 wins sounds reasonable for a floor. If there’s a rash of injuries I could easily see us dropping to 9.
However if we have solid or good luck with injuries, the players can hold themselves accountable and the skipper gets better at understanding situational football – 12 is reasonable IMO.
May 20th, 2025 at 7:52 am
If you are a SB team you have to go out and smash the so called consensus power teams that the Talk heads spend their time hyping. This is the year the Bucs flip the script on all of those dominant teams and become the dominant team.
\
As for Baker and the rest of Bucs it is time to cut yourselves off from the hype and lock in on your goals and ignore all Media psyche out propaganda One game at a time one play at a time. No talking just iron resolve and laser focus. This year the Bucs will be the big surprise.
Can’t wait to see Baker and the Bucs pay the Texans back for that last meeting. This time the Buc’s Defense will be able to close them out instead of giving up the TD .
May 20th, 2025 at 8:21 am
Hmmm…. The ceiling is an 11 – 7 record. Hardly qualifies as a Super Bowl run.
May 20th, 2025 at 8:28 am
It’s still a team coached by Bowles
9-8 or 8-9
Another wasted season
May 20th, 2025 at 8:32 am
Winning two against ATL is what matters most.
11
May 20th, 2025 at 8:45 am
“Yeah, well, with a possible new playoff rule being put into effect this week, that nine-win season might just cost the Bucs a home playoff game. Thanks, Rog.“
So why play for the division title if you have a good record? Why not try or not try based solely on where you think your team end up in the rankings. I’m thinking the last games of the season will be exciting …..but not for what’s happening on the field……
“Why yes, they’re playing their division rival for a chance to win the division but if they lose, they’ll still get a home playoff game AND they will most likely play the Browns or the Cardinals. So I think their starters will sit this one out.”
Or am I overthinking this?
May 20th, 2025 at 9:46 am
This looks like an 11-13 win team to me. I think 12 is reasonable. This is a very good football team. Borderline great.
May 20th, 2025 at 9:57 am
Id pass defense still confuses Todd Blows and his inept defensive staff then the Bucs are not winning more than 6 or 7 games
Facing QBs like
Allen, Stroud, Tua, Goff and Hurts with their passing attacks and Todd’s awful pass d is not a good combo.
The ceiling for any Todd coached team is ALWAYS going to be 10 wins until he proves other wise
May 20th, 2025 at 11:24 am
All the teams have improved after the draft All teams look good in pre-season practices. Then the games start and it’s a new day. 10 wins if key guys do NOT get injured. If Baker goes down early in the year we could sink.
I’m not trying to be a negative Nancy, but when people are predicting undefeated or 13 win seasons I think that’s a little unlikely.
May 20th, 2025 at 11:27 am
11-13 WINS!!!!
GO BUCS!!!
May 20th, 2025 at 11:32 am
4-2 in the division good enough?
May 20th, 2025 at 11:33 am
smarter than joe – but Bowles had an epiphany about his defense during the offseason!