Poor Turnover Margin
June 19th, 2025
Light shines on takeaways.
After reading this, Joe sort of understands where Todd Bowles is coming from.
The Bucs coach this offseason has kvetched about takeaways so much, Joe thought maybe lousy Lovie Smith was counseling him.
But these numbers sort of tell the tale. The Bucs were negative-5 in turnover ratio last year.
No other team with a negative-5 or worse turnover ratio made the playoffs. So now Joe better understands why Bowles has been whining so much about defensive takeaways. Of course, it would also help Baker Mayfield could whittle down his league-leading 16 picks.
Joe is an old-school football guy at heart. Joe would rather the Bucs defense get a three-and-out, preferably with a sack, saving themselves wear and tear, than banking on the opposing quarterback making a mistake.
turnover margin in 2024
+24 – BUF
+23
+22
+21
+20
+19
+18
+17
+16 – PIT
+15
+14
+13
+12 – GB, LAC, MIN
+11 – PHI
+10 – HOU
+9 – DET
+8 – CHI
+7
+6 – KC, BAL, LAR, DEN
+5
+4
+3 – CIN
+2
+1 – WAS
0
-1
-2 – NO, NYJ
-3 – ARI
-4 – IND
-5 – TB, CAR, MIA
-6 – SEA, ATL, DAL
-7
-8 – NYG…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 21, 2025
June 19th, 2025 at 7:19 am
I just want balance in generating turnovers on defense and not giving the ball away on offense. Keep our margin in the positive and we’ll be a dangerous team week in and week out.
June 19th, 2025 at 7:34 am
Has any of the stat people run the numbers on how many points were scored against us on Baker’s picks? I know they’re weren’t any pick sixes
June 19th, 2025 at 7:51 am
“Joe would rather the Bucs defense get a three and out, preferably with a sack”. Joe, I guess that makes me(and probably many others reading this) an old school football guy at heart too!
June 19th, 2025 at 8:00 am
I think you’re being a little too harsh on Baker for his turnovers Joe. Yes he led the league, but in his defense he played all 17 games. There were SEVEN other teams that threw that many or more INTs … Browns (23 INTs), Titans (21), Falcons (19), Colts (19), Raiders (16), 49ers (16), Seahawks (16). All 7 of those teams had 2 or more QBs play last season who threw INTs.
The goal should always be ZERO turnovers, but that’s a bit unrealistic given the violence of the game. I’d personally be very happy if the Bucs limited their giveaways to 1 per game. Obviously Baker throwing 16 INTs in 17 games doesn’t leave much margin for error for the rest of the team using that criteria, so it’d be nice if he cut down to say 10-12 INTs this year. Give the other guys a little slack to play with.
In terms of takeaways, 18 total in 17 games doesn’t cut it. That was a meager 7 INTs & 11 fumble recoveries. BTW Joe, those 7 INTs are the LEAST our Bucs have EVER HAD, including our 1976 inaugural year when we made 9 INTs and went 0-14. So 7 INTs is truly pathetic. And especially compared to our 2002 Super Bowl year when we made 31 INTs. I think the goal should be around 1.5 takeaways per game on the average, for about a 25 or 26 takeaway total in 2025. It’d be awesome to get that up to 2 takeaways per game on average, but that’s a pretty big leap in just 1 year.
June 19th, 2025 at 8:26 am
DR
Too harsh on Baker speaking about turnovers? Did you watch the playoffs the past few years? The Lions game ended on a 2nd down int on the Bucs side of the field. Didn’t make it past the 50. And the Commanders game Baker had a fumble on the Bucs side of the field after a defensive 4th down stop.
Baker has to fix this part of his game to help the team win more PLAYOFF games.
June 19th, 2025 at 8:41 am
lol all NFC south teams are –
June 19th, 2025 at 9:01 am
Bee … Baker gave us over 1100 offensive snaps last season in his full 17 games. He took a beating in those 17 games, yet he bounced back up every single time.
Quite a few of the Top-20 QBs also played in 17 games (11 of the 20), but only 1 other threw MORE TDs than Baker (Joe Burrow with 43).
June 19th, 2025 at 9:02 am
DR
gotta disagree with you on baker…
joe isnt being harsh enough!!!!
of those teams that threw more INTs, how many have a franchise QBs?….all those teams that you mentioned have/had a horrible qb situation to begin with excluding the 49ers….
winston & levis arent franchise qbs….kirk tied with baker in INTs and was benched….colts qb richardson was hurt all year…raiders dont have a qb….seahawks had a new HC and offensive system and average qb play in geno at best….
sounds like your being too harsh on the defense….winfield and dean missed a ton of time…as you stated before, we were 5-0 when dean&winfield finished a game together….how many TOs did we have during those 5games?….t.smith missed games…we were down to our 3rd and 4th LBs…
not sure what you’d expect when half of your starters are out….
GO BUCS!!!!
June 19th, 2025 at 9:25 am
only 1 other threw MORE TDs than Baker (Joe Burrow with 43)
not sure what point your trying to make DR lol…
joe burrow only threw 9 INTs and he missed the playoffs…and no top 10 QB threw more than 12INTs….
the beating baker took came from when he ran outside the pocket to make a play not sack like joe burrow or caleb williams
GO BUCS!!!!!
June 19th, 2025 at 9:41 am
Turnovers matter A LOT!
The team that has more takeaways than giveaways in any given game usually wins that game. (+1-66%, +2-76%, +3-88%)
Teams that have plus turnover margins for the season are almost always “winning” teams. Just look at the list from last year…. Only 1 team with a plus turnover margin had a losing record (Bears) and only 2 teams with a minus turnover differential had winning records (Bucs and Seahawks).
Turnovers are the NFL’s #1 variable when it comes to games won and games lost.
Putting extra attention on getting more defensive turnovers and not giving up as many on offense is not only smart – its mandatory when your team has Championship aspirations and was minus 5 in turnover differential the previous year…..
Coach Bowles is absolutely correct in focusing his team on this issue in 2025!
June 19th, 2025 at 9:44 am
I’ll say it again. Defense Rules should have his own weekly column. I would also show total comments made by posters and have the ability to like or dislike a comment. Don’t get me wrong Joe’s the site is great and I get more Bucs news here than anywhere else, but that doesn’t mean you can’t make the site even better.
June 19th, 2025 at 9:53 am
The defensive injuries excuse is silly
Healthy or injured this defensive scheme is not good at defending the forward pass. The soft zones, giving receivers a free release off the line, not disrupting the timing of short routes, and not changing the coverage schemes also help the pass rush
The defenders are lost in the scheme, they are consistently nowhere near the receiver. Watch other teams, even some of the worst defenses have their guys in position to make a play, the Aints in week 18 had defenders in position to stop a top 5 offense, while the Bucs defense with something to fight for left backups and guys off the street wide open
If you don’t think this scheme is a problem you don’t know the game
June 19th, 2025 at 9:56 am
@ Beej
9/16 of his INTs got turned into 43 points in 6 of the 10 games he threw a pick.
These instance came in weeks 3(1TD), 6(x2/1TD-1FG), 7(x2/1TD-1FG), 13(x2/2FGs), 14(1TD), & 18(1FG).
Also, pointing this out doesn’t make me a hater. Name calling or whatever else won’t be entertained, and get a grip. Desiring cleaner play knowing it’ll take us just a little further than a wild card weekend exit is not “hating”.
Also, scrutinize the math, I did this at work with a split between counting, eating an egg and pastrami sangwhich and my actual job.
June 19th, 2025 at 10:00 am
Of the 17 teams with a negative turnover ratio, only two had a winning record: Tampa and Seattle. (both were 10-7)
Nine of those teams won 5 games or fewer!
I can totally understand the emphasis that Bowles put on turnovers.
June 19th, 2025 at 10:09 am
Pickgrin … Totally agree with you that ‘Turnovers matter a LOT’ and that Todd Bowles is absolutely right in focusing on that aspect of the game. But Baker is who Baker is, and he tries to squeeze every inch out of every play. Yes he often holds the ball too long. Yes he sometimes takes risks that are a little questionable. But hey, he got us to a 10-7 record last year, and we scored over 500 points in getting there. He had a bad game in the playoffs, but we lost that game for a variety of reasons.
Like I wrote earlier, what he needs is to cut down on the turnovers, both INTs and fumbles. We can do better on giveaways, and we can definitely do better on takeaways. And I’d be willing to bet that we will.
June 19th, 2025 at 10:19 am
^^^^
“Balance good, karate good, everything-good”
June 19th, 2025 at 11:09 am
Radical concept, I know it’s crazy. But maybe if a pass defender were in the same zip code as a receiver, the chances of getting hands on balls increases. I know, insane talk.
June 19th, 2025 at 11:29 am
DR, Great Work! I didn’t ever think that a bunch of NFL teams threw more picks than we did. Baker was responsible for 18 turnovers. It would be great if he could cut that down by 3 or 4. And informing us(I didn’t know) that our defense was the worst in Bucs history in taking the ball away? Great information! So if we just take the ball away 3 or 4 more times then we should be on the plus side of the turnover battle. We have a great chance to do those 2 things. A little bit here and a little bit there. We’re going to lose a few games this year. But not many (hardly any).
June 19th, 2025 at 1:17 pm
Joe is correct that the Bucs need to surrender fewer interceptions. But, IIRC, two of those were ripped from the hands of McMillan – something that Baker cannot fix by himself.
But, with a health WR group and the new additions, and hopefully the progression of the rookie McMillan, Baker should be in better hands and have more separation to work with.
June 19th, 2025 at 1:26 pm
Everyone who watches football knows turnovers are a telling statistic. This is football 101. You can’t count on the defense to just make turnovers happen on demand, but over the coarse of a season you can increase the odds of victory through technique, effort, discipline, and anticipation… not yo mention squeezing the effing ball when it hits you in the hands. So, I’ve never understood why J03 was triggered by Bowles concern with turnovers. Maybe it’s Lovie PTSD, cuz that fool seemed to think you could just dial up a turnover at any moment. He also had the softest defense in modern NFL history. An absolute joke who thought way more highly of himself than he had any right to.
Todd Bowles is not Lovie, by a long stretch.
June 19th, 2025 at 1:59 pm
Joe is correct that the Bucs need to surrender fewer interceptions.
LOL…IT GOES BOTH WAYS LOL
i can remember right off the top of my head vs ATL, vs DEN and vs DAL, db’s dropping INTs that baker threw right at them lol
GO BUCS!!!!
June 19th, 2025 at 2:43 pm
Bakers interceptions have absolutely nothing to do with a defense that only managed 18 takeaways. 7 interceptions is pretty pathetic.