“You Gotta Be A Master Of Probability”

November 10th, 2026

Baker Mayfield has a troubling total of seven turnovers in his six starts this season.

That’s ok if a quarterback can complement those giveaways with big stats, like Mayfield did in 2024, when he led the NFL in interceptions and fumbles and threw 41 touchdowns.

But this season, Mayfield has struggled mightily. He’s got only three touchdown passes and is completing less than 61 percent of his passes.

Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees lectured on turnovers yesterday during his weekly visit to Let’s Go! on SiriusXM Mad Dog Radio.

Joe could listen to Brees all day if he’s talking quarterback play. It’s no surprise that he and Tom Brady were tight and shared the same throwing guru in their 40s.

Brees said before the 2017 season, he said he made a conscious decision to become a “single-digit turnover guy — interceptions and fumbles.” And that changed his already stellar career. He accomplished the goal and led the NFL in completion percentage in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

Brees was asked about the six interceptions in the Bucs-Bears game on Sunday night. That led to him opining on QB play.

“Just because you can make the throw doesn’t mean that you attempt it depending on the situation,” Brees said. “Especially ultra-confident quarterbacks, there’s not many throws that you look at and say, ‘I can’t make that throw.’ Like, you’re gonna be like, ‘I can. But is it a 1-out-of-2 throw or is it a 1-out-of-10 throw and is it in a situation where is it worth the risk? Who am I throwing to?’

“Like you’re calculating all this stuff. If I’m throwing the ball up to Calvin Johnson on a jump ball, is that a 50-50 ball or is that an 80-20 ball in my favor? Is it a 90-10 ball in my favor? I mean, tell me who the free safety is. Tell me who the corner is, does he have the same ball skills?

“Does he get his head around, you know, I trust my guy. It’s either a catch or [pass interference] or, you know, incomplete. I like those odds.

“I’ve always said the quarterback position, you gotta be a master of probability, and you make these calculations before you even get into the game.

“… I got conditioned towards the end of my career to be a bit more conservative, recognizing what the turnover differential means in a game. Like right now, if you win the turnover battle, you’re a 78 percent winner — like right off the bat, even just plus one in the turnover [margin].

“So you just think about, you know, is that interception or big play worth it at the expense of decreased probabilities against us? So it’s the hardest part about playing the quarterback position as to whether you turn it loose or not. And there’s a lot of calculations and a lot of preparation that go into that moment. Because you don’t have time to think about it, you just react.”

Brees went on to lecture, “before you learn how to win the game, you have to learn how to not lose the game.”

Joe easily could argue Baker Mayfield’s poor decisions and negligence cost the Bucs wins in Weeks 1 and 9, wins they’re aching for right now.

 

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