Bucs Might Want To Stick With 13-Personnel
November 11th, 2026
This is working!
Joe is a big trends guy. If something isn’t working, quit doing it.
And, flipping the coin, if something is working, why try to fix it? Keep doing it! This isn’t really difficult.
So when it comes to 13-personnel for the Bucs (one running back and three tight ends) the Bucs may want to think about sticking with that. Per data scientist Steven Patton, no team in the NFL produces more explosive plays in 13-personnel than the Bucs.
See, the Bucs can do something right on offense! The dumb move is not using this enough — though when the Bucs decided to go all Woody Hayes in recent wins against Dallas, Carolina and Atlanta, they used 13-personnel more than usual.
Generally, an explosive play is not an official NFL stat so each coach has his own definition. It’s generally a run of at least 10 yards or a pass play of over 20 yards.
The best offenses in the NFL don’t often get to third downs because using explosive plays tends to move the chains quicker. It’s almost like CFL football.
And since it seems the Bucs have the best offense in 13-personnel, why the hell do they ever stray from using it?
The Bucs don't use 13 personnel often, but they make it count.
Their 20.5% explosive play rate leads the NFL, even though they use 13 personnel at a league-average rate. pic.twitter.com/cwZgCvCTHS
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) November 4, 2026
November 11th, 2026 at 9:07 am
Soo much intelligence permeating through this organization. It’s inspiring. Go Bucs
November 11th, 2026 at 9:14 am
Yes, let’s abandon the forward pass all together shall we? Run every down.
That should produce nothing but victories going forward.
We can change the game forever. It really is a brilliant plan.
Todd is a genius and this is his brain child. We all just need to jump on board.
Placing my order for playoff tickets now! Go Todd go!!!! Yay!!!!
November 11th, 2026 at 9:15 am
And if you’re going to start featuring this as your base, you better have a nice a repertoire of counters to Otten, Sharp and Durham in your bag. Otherwise that explosive rate will decline rapidly.
November 11th, 2026 at 9:17 am
When using 13, the Bucs bring in Bauer Sharp. He’s young, so makes mistakes (holding penalty), but the guy has juice and is making plays.
November 11th, 2026 at 9:20 am
All those explosives out of 13p were runs.
November 11th, 2026 at 9:23 am
why they came out in shotgun against the bears and tried to run out of that is crazy. But the beef on the field and start pounding
Just another exhibit in the case to fire Bowles and his staff
November 11th, 2026 at 9:29 am
Adjacent question is how come play action is not working when used in conjunction with our explosive running game?
November 11th, 2026 at 9:38 am
I would like to see this same analysis done after they remove the Atlanta game.
That game was a ridiculous anomaly.
Our running game was back to a pedestrian 126 yds against the Bears under normal conditions…
November 11th, 2026 at 9:44 am
Against the Steelers we had 102 yds rushing…
I believe the Bears and Steeler games are a more accurate measuring stick of this rushing attack and our O-line’s true abilities.
November 11th, 2026 at 9:54 am
“Our running game was back to a pedestrian 126 yds against the Bears under normal conditions…”
League average per game is 112 yds per carry, and trying to use a 2 game sample after 9 games played to define our run game is kind of weird. We see what you’re doing dude, cut the crap.
November 11th, 2026 at 9:56 am
*112 yards per game over the course of the entire NFL schedule, so league-wide average of all 32.
November 11th, 2026 at 9:58 am
The keys in 13 personnel is how the TEs can get out and catch.
So far Sharp is a mere rumor in the pass catching category, with hype on the level of Hurst. Durham — well, somebody has to block. Otten is only a safety blanket when facing the qb or hitting a seam — we saw in Chicago what happens when he’s guarded by a safety downfield. And the WRs do not perform well in this alignment. (Aside from their blocking, that is. Bring back Mark Carrier!).
The success of this grouping comes from Bucky’s performance. Maybe it could be effective. Loveland sure was for Da Bears. But unless Sharp explodes or a WR separates this fad is going to fade.
November 11th, 2026 at 10:13 am
The less Baker throws the ball, the better. Guy has lost his mojo.
November 11th, 2026 at 10:15 am
Agree with Lou⬆️. The way 13 becomes really effective is we have to be able to also throw to the TEs. That’s exactly what the Rams do so well. They actually have 4 TEs that can catch. We have 3. Cade has shown he can catch ( everyone has some drops). Sharp can run intermediate and deep routes based on his speed and athleticism. Durham has been slept on. Coen used him very effectively. The dude led the Big 10 in TE receptions ( over LaPorta and many other good TEs) and had 23 career TDs. Was a Mackey award semi finalist….. for his Receiving ( mainly red zone), not blocking. His college coaches knew how to scheme him. Sharp led Oklahoma in receptions. 13 can be awesome for us if ZRob can actually use it like McVay.
November 11th, 2026 at 10:25 am
if Brady was still playing no way we lose that hand to the bears. baker is horrible for a year now!!! use 13 every time bc when we throw bad things happen. unless a guy is wide a** open with nobody around for ten yards, baker makes too many mistakes. just don’t maker mistakes and we win… so stupid
November 11th, 2026 at 10:40 am
@ warrin
Do you understand the term “pedestrian”?
I never said it was bad… Come on boy.
Try to keep up.
November 11th, 2026 at 10:42 am
Jie why dont thr bucs go wildcat we would of won the bears game if we did that..
November 11th, 2026 at 10:55 am
Ya good point I n play action – this run game should be a dream for running creative play action but something is just off – if anything they should have traded for a legit tight end so they could continue and evolve as it’s pretty clear ZR runs his offense through the TE
Oh well
Train is off the rails and all that’s left is to see how many the crash effects
Bucs should be ready to trade the farm for Mestemaker if BM continues to drag the team down
They’re getting into “just a QB away” territory with the s D and run game
November 11th, 2026 at 11:01 am
@Maureen
Do you still not understand math?
Relative to our own outlier performances in 2 back to back games before playing Chicago, you could think running for 126 yards is “pedestrian” FOR US, but by league standards it’s literally average.
Let me stop, before you get to crying about how mean I am because I disagree with you lol
November 11th, 2026 at 11:04 am
@ warrin
“Let me stop, before you get to crying about how mean I am because I disagree with you lol”
You should stop due to embarrassment.
It has nothing to do with me my little Buc compadre…
November 11th, 2026 at 11:07 am
“The dude led the Big 10 in TE receptions ( over LaPorta and many other good TEs) and had 23 career TDs.”
Finally has more targets in the NFL than he had TDs at Purdue, but only 4 more.
I’ll say it until he’s no longer on the team-you would THINK that as soon as we get in the endzone, you’d get Payne to just pick a pylon and toss it to him so he can body a DB.
6’5″ 250+ you would think a team that has struggled in the redzone like we have, would be calling this dudes number in close quarters, but NOPE!
November 11th, 2026 at 11:08 am
@ warrin
Listen little man – I was merely suggesting that by removing the two insane outlier contests from the equation you would clearly see that these numbers are highly skewed.
Now go get your shine box boy.
November 11th, 2026 at 11:21 am
I think they should have used Sean Tucker against the Bears in the first half when the shifty runs weren’t working. I-formation with Ko Keift leading the way.
Also, speaking of sticking to what works – Baker didn’t scramble when pass plays broke down like he used to when the offense was successful. What’s up with that?
November 11th, 2026 at 11:29 am
This isn’t 1955…going more 13 will just telegraph the plays more than they already are…you have to pass in this league and we suck at it. It’s not gonna rain every week either. The team is unbalanced in so many areas. 13 years and Licht still can’t put a decent team together unless Brady is at QB. And we’re all out of Bradys.
November 11th, 2026 at 11:31 am
“All those explosives out of 13p were runs.”
Yes they were, and the reason we aren’t in 13p more is cause apparently Robinson doesn’t know how to run play action from that set and open up field for a TE running outta that formation.
Seriously, when is the last time you saw the Bucs line up heavy and throw a pass that wasn’t a screen?
I doubt it was 13p but the only thing I can recall recently was early in the season, Egbuka caught a pass nearly wide open on some kinda counter mesh concept. They had everyone going right and Emeka came outta the formation on the right through the traffic to the other side where Baker faked and boot legged towards Emeka finding him relatively easily for a nice gain.
My memory may have failed me to get that completely right but it was a nice design and something that works in short yardage when you are a run first and run heavy team which everyone knows the Bucs are! Just zig when you usually zag a couple times, drives me nuts.
November 11th, 2026 at 11:33 am
WBL⬆️couldn’t agree more. I was looking at his measurable too. 84” wing span and 35” vertical jump. Throw the ball up at a back pylon
November 11th, 2026 at 11:44 am
I don’t think the math is math-ing – the use of TEs is not additive –
Otton + Durham + Sharp + Kieft does not equal Gronkowski –
all 4 were Licht-drafted BTW – the TE unit has 25 catches for 237 yards –
Tez has 11 catches for 254 and everyone is yelling at him for drops –
if we could trade Mayfield for Bo Nix we wouldn’t have that problem –
BTW Otton had 15 of his 23 catches 65% (and 157 of 211 yards 74%) in the first four games all losses – 8 catches for 54 yards in 5 games since – Tez had a 64-yarder from Daniels at Dallas and a 58-yard toss from Mayfield LAST WEEK –
Tez had more yards in the last game than Otton had in the last 5 games –
yes we need to take out Tez and Godwin and put in Durham and Sharp – brilliant
November 11th, 2026 at 11:49 am
Tez had more yards in ONE CATCH last week than Otton has had total in the last five games
November 11th, 2026 at 11:56 am
“Listen little man – I was merely suggesting that by removing the two insane outlier contests from the equation you would clearly see that these numbers are highly skewed.”
Brain smoother than a jolly rancher
November 11th, 2026 at 12:07 pm
@canwe…
You realize TE routes tend to be shorter and WR routes tend to be longer. Your comment kinda illustrates you don’t. Also receptions and yards are a function of targets. Godwin/Tez have 59 targets .Combined 4 TEs have 41. Your math ain’t math-ing.
November 11th, 2026 at 12:13 pm
ok
Cade Otton – snaps 560 Tez Johnson 256
Cade Otton – targets 36 Tez Johnson 20
Cade Otton – receptions 23 Tez Johnson 11
Cade Otton – drops 2 Tez Johnson 2
Cade Otton – yards/rec 9.2. Tez Johnson 23.1
who should be on the field more ?
November 11th, 2026 at 12:17 pm
@OurYear – yes I get that the roles and routes of Tez and Otton are very different – but what I am getting at is that using a mediocre TE (Otton and the rest) is less effective than rolling the dice on an explosive play by Tez
November 11th, 2026 at 12:18 pm
Ok, now do blocking and receiving combination illustrating who is more versatile. Tez blocking …… I’ll wait
Your math also tells me Otton catches 64% of his targets while Tez catches 48%. Efficiency much?
November 11th, 2026 at 12:19 pm
@canwe. We dont have the OL pass protection to drop back and throw Tez deep balls all game.
November 11th, 2026 at 12:22 pm
also @OurYear – I see you also snuck Godwin stats in there – very sneaky and deceptive of you – try harder next time – and read a book sometime
November 11th, 2026 at 12:28 pm
@canwe… this was your comment. Lol
“yes we need to take out Tez and Godwin and put in Durham and Sharp – brilliant“
You compared Tez and CG to the TEs . I simply took their stats vs the TE group . Dude, you were comparing the yardage of WRs ( long routes) to that of TE’s ( short routes) and making a stupid comparison of value to the offense.
Take the “ L” and move on….
November 11th, 2026 at 12:33 pm
@OurYear – the article is about 13 sets – which is three TEs – putting Sharp and Durham in there – I know you had someone read the article to you because you’re embarrassed that your lips move while you read but maybe they mistranslated it and you misheard – you should go back and try to pass the 5th grade
November 11th, 2026 at 12:40 pm
@canwe… yep right on cue. Resorted to verbal attacks when your ignorant comment is dissected and exposed. Ok, let’s go with your theory. Let’s not use 13 which has yielded ys all 3 of our wins but go with 25 targets a game to … wait for it…. Tez Johnson. See you at the Super Bowl win post game party. Carry on.
November 11th, 2026 at 12:50 pm
The Professor is 100% right. The Bucs proved they belong and played really good against the Bears. The scoreboard lies at the end, that’s all.
November 11th, 2026 at 2:18 pm
@OurYear – I do pity you for your lack of cognitive function but the “13 which has yielded ys (sic) all 3 of our wins” suggests only that the Bucs need to utilize the 13 in conjunction with torrential downpours or situations in which the QB has no use of his throwing arm in order to win – that might not be a winning strategy – I hope you are getting treatment for your dyslexia, dementia , or delirium tremens or whatever affliction from which you suffer –
November 11th, 2026 at 2:29 pm
@canwe… lol. A typo of “ ys” instead of “us” and you try to highlight it. Sad. Your lack of football knowledge is painfully obvious. My guess is your ceiling in the game was the flag football coed church team. The one your dad coached so that you could get a few snaps over the more talented girls.
November 11th, 2026 at 3:29 pm
I’m sure it was more but I only saw the Bucs in 13 personnel once in the Bears game. Bauer Sharp had a holding penalty and I never saw it again. We definitely can’t pass so if you’re going to go down, go down with what you do best, which is run the football. Given the nature of today’s NFL you have to be able to pass consistently to win but as of yet the Bucs can’t pass effectively enough so run the damn ball.
November 11th, 2026 at 3:38 pm
“Our running game was back to a pedestrian 126 yds against the Bears under normal conditions…”
They also have one of the best run defenses before Simmons trade
November 11th, 2026 at 4:18 pm
Todd bowles is running the defense and has turned it around quite magnificently the offense can get nothing going in any sort of consistency or rhythm besides running the ball. Fire zack Robinson
November 11th, 2026 at 5:24 pm
Let’s run wild cat offense