Red Zone Touchdown Rate Must Improve
October 14th, 2026
Bucs OC Zac Robinson.
Joe gives the Bucs a little bit of a pass here. Just a little.
Aside from playing against a truly porous defense last week in Dallas, one so bad Jerry Jones sunk to maybe his lowest point of his charmed life by hiring stone-cold idiot Mike Pettine to try to rescue his defense, we all know how much the Bucs offense has struggled this year.
And here is some documentation.
The Bucs have the sixth-worst touchdown percentage when entering the red zone, 47.1 percent, per handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp. With all the Bucs’ talent, both on the line and at the skill positions, that should not be.
Infact, with all that offesnsive talent, to be this poor in the red zone means you’re either trying to get fired, of your offense does not match the talents of your roster. At all.
So why is Joe giving Robinson and the Bucs a little bit of a pass? Well, Baker Mayfield did not play well in his first three starts, and in the past two games, the Bucs had to turn to an undrafted rookie quarterback. So Joe is confident Bucs offensive coordinator Zac Robinson had to dumb down the offense.
What’s shocking about this stat is the Bears have the worst red zone touchdown percentage in all of football. The Bears? That tells Joe that Chicago must be scoring a bunch from outside the red zone.
Either that, or the Bears get into the red zone so often, they can get away with having these types of poor numbers.
Oh, and look who is No. 1. Weird, huh?
red zone touchdown rate this season:
87.5% – San Francisco 49ers
83.3% – Dallas Cowboys
81.3% – New Orleans Saints
77.3% – Detroit Lions
73.7% – Baltimore Ravens
71.4% – Buffalo Bills
69.2% – Atlanta Falcons
68.4% – Los Angeles Rams
66.7% – Indianapolis Colts
64.7% – Carolina…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 13, 2026
October 14th, 2026 at 12:24 am
I question whether the bucs have alot of talent at skill positions. Who is the go to guy for the qb in the redzone? Godwin isnt scoring unless its a wr screen.
October 14th, 2026 at 12:43 am
I blame Baker. Y’all can blame Bowles and whoever you want, I blame Baker Mayfield’s catastrophic drop in play. Coach Baker might be his best contribution, I don’t care if that makes him the most highly paid Offensive Assistant in league history.
October 14th, 2026 at 1:31 am
During the last two weeks we are 5 TD’s in 7 red zone trips.
October 14th, 2026 at 1:39 am
Capebuc Says:
I blame Baker. Y’all can blame Bowles and whoever you want, I blame Baker Mayfield’s catastrophic drop in play.
.
.
It’s impossible to properly evaluate Baker with the horrible OL protection in the first 3 weeks.
October 14th, 2026 at 1:41 am
New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina are all in the top ten? It must be an stupid stat.
October 14th, 2026 at 6:42 am
Funny how three of the top ten red zone offenses are in what is constantly described as the “woeful” NFC South. Too bad the Bucs aren’t one of them and haven’t been since Coen left. His Jags aren’t in the top ten either, though.
October 14th, 2026 at 10:05 am
Mike Evans effect in San Francisco.
October 14th, 2026 at 10:42 am
The rest of the NFC South looks good, so again the Bucs are the worst in the division. Thankfully, the Steelers don’t look great, but still better than the Bucs. Maybe target Ted Hurst in the RZ?
October 14th, 2026 at 10:56 am
i’m sure some donkey will be in here soon to hee haw about how the bucs dont miss mike evans or provide some other curve fit monday morning stat like “well on the 8 th week of odd years the bucs are 32 and 18 in games with a 62.7 % red zone efficiency when playing in mountain time zone as long as they are playing teams that have a coach or defensive coordinator who’s name starts with S so things are way better thanks to todd. if only the offense was better. by the way i love jason lite” idiocy.
October 14th, 2026 at 11:30 am
Ouch!
Go Bucs!
October 14th, 2026 at 1:13 pm
Apparently Mike Evans was the only WR we’ve had who can catch a fade…
With that said, I don’t think even the UDFA rookie QB is an excuse, because he is extremely mobile (as is Baker). There’s a lot you can do with misdirection, moving the pocket, etc., to confuse defenses and scheme guys open, even in the short field of the red zone.
The question is whether Robinson is actually capable of that? So far, the answer is no. We seem to only throw passes behind the LOS, or to Cade Otton.
October 14th, 2026 at 1:14 pm
Atlanta’s offense has improved vastly without Robinson running things (when Penix is healthy / playing)