Win Probability!
September 15th, 2026
Ball security wasn’t an issue for Baker Mayfield on this play. It was too many times, otherwise.
One sports fad of the third decade of the 21st century is a complete and total mystery to Joe.
What is the deal with win probabilities? And why do people care? It has to be some gambling thing, right? America cannot be this obsessed with stat geekery, can we?
So-and-so just farted into the catcher’s face mask. That gives his team a win probability of 42 percent.
Who. Gives. A. Eff?!
But to play along with the numbers crowd, how badly was the Bucs’ win probability after Baker Mayfield played Santa Claus in Cincinnati? The Bucs still had a better than expected win probability, per Nick Shook of NFL.com.
NEXT GEN STATS INSIGHT: Baker Mayfield’s three lost fumbles decreased the Buccaneers’ win probability by a combined 32.9 percentage points in Sunday’s loss to the Bengals.
The way some folks talk about turnovers, Joe figured Mayfield doomed Tampa Bay, maybe down to a 2 percent shot. Not only did the Bucs nearly make a comeback, they had a third of a chance to win.
Joe is more of a win certainty guy. As long as you have more points than the other team when the clock hits 0:00, you win.
That’s what concerns Joe. And the Bucs failed at that Sunday, no matter how much you want to play with a calculator.
September 15th, 2026 at 12:16 am
I’m optimistic, I just watched players like trotter and Benjamin Morrison step up we seen Bucky make cuts and jukes similar to his rookie year. Ebuka looks like a true #1 receiver. Chris Godwin looks very good considering his age and his past injuries. Ted hurst showed with a lil more time he can perform well in the big leagues. If baker don’t fumble the game away we would be talking about how zyon McCollum and Morrison held Jamar chase and tee Higgins to under 80 yards combined. Even with the turnovers the Bucs still had a dam good chance and all this with no pass rush. It’s a long season and Bucs just went to Cincinnati(a Super Bowl contender) and really made it a game. I’m not too beat down about this loss baker needs to wake tf up though!
September 15th, 2026 at 12:17 am
“As long as you have more points than the other team when the clock hits 0:00, you win.”
Ask Western Michigan about that!!
September 15th, 2026 at 12:17 am
It says decreased the win probability by 39 pp, not that the win probability was 39%
September 15th, 2026 at 12:25 am
Buccaneers lost all four fumbles. That’s incredibly BAD LUCK. On average NFL Teams normally recover 5o-55 per cent of their own fumbles. If they had recovered even one, the outcome could have been different. Two, they likely would have won the game given they were averaging 5.2 yards per play and never counted the entire game
September 15th, 2026 at 12:26 am
Love the shock and angst about 0-1, as if they were expected to finish 17-0.
September 15th, 2026 at 12:26 am
High 5 Joe. For now I did see some satisfaction not encouragement, as of the first game but satisfaction, ( still have last year collapse in mind ) Special teams looked a little better so did the CBs. The offensive was decent. If you take away Cincinnati’s defensive score the Bucs win this game. So I guess I’ll just take a wait and see til we get deeper into the season
September 15th, 2026 at 12:46 am
To be honest the game took on a comic edge with each successive mistake the Bucs made. A couple of Baker’s fumbles had me imagining Chris Berman doing highlight “Whoops!” on SportsCenter back in the day.
No offense to either side of the coin for the ‘they suck’!’ or ‘playoff bound!’ Bucs fans – but this is an average team that had a bad day. They’re just good enough to piss everyone off for neither tanking or winning enough. The Bengals game encapsulated the bad, the Browns game will likely show the good. They’re just good enough to keep you watching – and that’s really what the business is about. To keep you hooked, whether you’re hopeful or seething.
As far as win probability went on Sunday, it dropped to near zero the moment Otten let a perfect ball hit the ground that would’ve gained 25 and Bucky coughed it up on the next play. That was game playing against Burrow with our coverage scheme.
September 15th, 2026 at 12:49 am
Baker not only cost the team 7 points on the fumble returned for a TD, he also fumbled into the opponent endzone, costing another 7 points. Then he cost the team another score when he fumbled at the Bucs 42, which in the modern NFL means at least a FG is given up.
That’s a 17 point swing in a 6-point loss.
In fact the defense on the day only gave up 16 points when the Bengals got the ball on their side of the field … and the Bucs defense scored 7 points. So that was a net 9 points the defense gave up to one of the NFL’s best offenses.
And thanks to the defense at least holding the Bengals to FGs on some drives, the Bucs were kept in the game as the Bengals defense did a very Bowles thing and went into a super soft shell and let the Bucs nearly come back.
Next week should be different.
Hopefully.
September 15th, 2026 at 2:27 am
This is like cavaliers coach saying analytically they won but in reality got swept by the knicks lol
September 15th, 2026 at 2:55 am
Joe was going to write something like that but figured it would fly over too many people’s heads. 🙂
September 15th, 2026 at 5:06 am
I had to take a second look, Morrison must have put on some muscle too, he certainly showed up many times. Overall I’m glad we had some great def moves. Trotter has become my new favorite, and Anzalone may need to sit if he continues to play the way he had. Dennis played better than him.
September 15th, 2026 at 5:41 am
Not many opportunities to punt during a game when you keep fumbling the ball away before you hit 4th down…
Jus’ sayin…
September 15th, 2026 at 6:46 am
The strong Broncos messed the bed last night because of turnovers. It was a mess. They couldn’t make it close, the Bucs did. Both teams lost, so don’t turn the ball over. Simple fix.
September 15th, 2026 at 7:28 am
“Joe was going to write something like that but figured it would fly over too many people’s heads. 🙂”
I know it’s JoeBucsFan, but you should strongly consider a college gameday open thread. It’d pay dividends for your coverage during the draft season and there are quite a few college footballs fans already frequenting the site.
“The way some folks talk about turnovers, Joe figured Mayfield doomed Tampa Bay, maybe down to a 2 percent shot. Not only did the Bucs nearly make a comeback, they had a third of a chance to win.”
The win probability shot back up from 10% to 33% after the Trotter Pick 6 because it cut a 2 score lead back down to 7 points.
Doesn’t make the turnovers any less damning, and the late rushing TDs much like the score itself makes things seem closer than they actually were. These next gen stats only speak Mayfields’ fumbles, and even then you don’t want your QB of all people to be the reason your win probably drops 30%
Let’s be foreal.
September 15th, 2026 at 8:11 am
screw what his stats says….his fumbles did doom the BUCS to a 2% chance at winning….
you can put all the Maybelline make-up on a pig, doesnt change the fact that its still a pig….
GO BUCS!!!!!
September 15th, 2026 at 8:24 am
ESPN gave the Cincinnati Bengals a 61.6% chance to win, compared to a 38% chance for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield’s three first-half lost fumbles reduced the Buccaneers’ in-game win probability by a combined 32.9 percentage points
our win probability was 5% until 2:24 left in the 3rd quarter when Trotter got his pick6…
the fumbles did indeed doom our chances at winning…
GO BUCS!!!!
September 15th, 2026 at 8:33 am
Todd Bowles win percentage against the AFC North: 0.00%
He’s a guru. The Sultan of suck!
Just wait until the Browns beat us in the home opener.
Then what excuses will the Pom Pom squad make????
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
September 15th, 2026 at 11:05 am
Negative Nellys….yes. Bakers fumble into the end zone was a clear example of him trying to get more than what was available. Plus he has a tendency to carry the ball like a loaf of bread on his scrambles. But, WOW!! His touchdown run was gorgeous. When he juked that poor defender out of his shoes, I was up and screaming.
Why isn’t anyone talking about that?
September 15th, 2026 at 11:41 am
IMAGINE IF THEY LOSE … To Cleveland!!!!
No one is even considering it.
September 15th, 2026 at 12:01 pm
I’m considering it. I predict Watson will have his best game as a Brown against us. Who wins- -50-50.
September 15th, 2026 at 12:11 pm
Look at the film. Mayfield is awful. Put in Daniels and Fire Bowles.
September 15th, 2026 at 1:52 pm
Hopefully JMac will be back soon. Adds a lot to our already good WR group.
September 15th, 2026 at 3:05 pm
Some fans! Rooting for the Browns to win this week for the sole purpose of witnessing the failure of Baker Mayfield. Maybe you can make a deal with devil. Why all the vitriol directed exclusively at Baker with some at Bowles. At the end of the day, Baker didn’t hold a gun to the head of Licht and the Glasers. They chose to make the deal. He was ready to play without a deal. Nothing directed at them so far since the debacle in Cincinnati. Why not , since you are so sure it was a huge mistake after one bleeping game.
September 15th, 2026 at 4:16 pm
If Bucs lose to Cleveland on Sunday, you’re gonna see a massive implosion on this team. Mark my words!!
They freaken better not lose.
Fans waited 9 months to watch Bucs football again, and if they put a piss-poor product on the field on Sunday, you gonna see a massive mutiny towards this team.
September 15th, 2026 at 7:52 pm
0-3, here we come……