Faster Starts (And Better Fourth Quarter Defense), Please
July 10th, 2026
Need more of these, especially in the first half.
All kinds of stats can be cited to explain why the Bucs missed the playoffs last year but at the end of the day, it comes down to the only stat that truly matters.
Points.
Opponents had too many. The Bucs didn’t have enough. That’s all you need to know.
Dirk Koetter always talked about starting fast. Sometimes the Bucs did; sometimes they didn’t. But with Liam Coen the Bucs sure did. They led the league in average points scored in the first quarter.
That’s how you win games: Put the other team’s offense on their heels.
The Bucs, as noted handicapper-turned-stathead Warren Sharp pointed out in his Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, struggled to overcome deficits last year. That’s why it was so important to score early.
Sadly, the Bucs under Josh Grizzard struggled with scoring early. The Bucs were -18 in quarter points margin and a first half margin of -24. Yes, a chunk of that can be hung on the defense.
The Bucs’ offense was strong coming out of the locker room at halftime, scoring 105 points in the third quarter with a margin of +30.
In the fourth quarter, the Bucs’ defense bent over with a -37 scoring margin. It’s really hard to close out wins when the defense assumes the position and plays ole’ defense in the fourth quarter.
Again, per Sharp, the Bucs were behind at halftime in eight games in 2025. All eight were losses. When the Bucs led at halftime their record was 7-1.
So for Joe, one answer is clear for 2026: The Bucs must score more, especially in the first half and preferably in the opening quarter.
And for crying out loud, is it too much to ask a defensive head coach to have a slightly better fourth-quarter defense than second-worst in points allowed?
July 10th, 2026 at 12:04 pm
no mention of the 4th quarter INTs by our QB lol…figures lol
GO BUCS!!!!
July 10th, 2026 at 12:12 pm
Try playing football before September. It may help.
July 10th, 2026 at 12:35 pm
7-1 when leading at halftime. Guess what game the loss was?
3rd and 28
The key predictive stat most closely correlated to losing is who the Twocoach is. For those who love cheering for a loser, Todd Bowles was retained for a 5th season as Twocoach. Which is why Mike and the other vets who could leave, did.
July 10th, 2026 at 12:41 pm
Anyone referring to Evans as a “deva “ (the correct spelling is “diva,” moron) immediately self-identifies as a ripe eggplant. Great for the Pom Pom Squad.
July 10th, 2026 at 12:48 pm
That leaves out a lot of information but, I will let DR explain it. He can do it a lot better than I can.
July 10th, 2026 at 1:24 pm
Starting fast is nice; consistency is better. Coen had both. Remember Leftwich’s final year when the opening drive was a thing of beauty and then the rest was a zombie walk?
July 10th, 2026 at 1:28 pm
“In the fourth quarter, the Bucs’ defense bent over with a -37 scoring margin. It’s really hard to close out wins when the defense assumes the position and plays ole’ defense in the fourth quarter.”
14 of our 18 giveaways happened in the 2nd half of games.
11 of those 14 were in the 4th quarter and 5 of those 11 giveaways gave opposing offenses possesion on our side of the 50 and were converted for 27 points against us. Terrible complimentary ball, but no big deal because turnovers aren’t that important, right?(lol)
Offensively, we ranked 31st in 4th quarter scoring averaging 4.8 points a game in the last 15 minutes of the game. We ranked 3rd in 3rd quarter scoring w/6.1 points per 3rd quarter. So the fall off looks like “only” 1.3 points, the fall from 3rd rank to 31st ranked says a lot more
Our defense recorded 11-2nd half takeaways which was converted to 41 of our total 187 points scored in the 2nd half of games.
11 of 17 games we went into the 4th quarter with the lead
The most points we scored in a 4th quarter of any game was 10 points.
Oh, and the 11 fourth quarter turnovers was the worst in the league. So yea, for all this talk about our defense blowing these phantom leads that you guys reference ad nauseum defense got a lot of help(sarcasm) from an offense with the worst ball security of any team in the 4th quarter.
But like ATL said, I’ll let Defense Rules come in and lay this out a little better than I did.
July 10th, 2026 at 2:06 pm
11 of 17 games we had the 4th qtr. lead. So our defense was excellent at coughing up 4th qtr. leads. Tell us something we didn’t know, WBL.
July 10th, 2026 at 2:08 pm
“11 of 17 games we had the 4th qtr. lead. So our defense was excellent at coughing up 4th qtr. leads. Tell us something we didn’t know, WBL”
Poor attempt at snark, first and foremost.
Obviously ignoring the offense leading the league in 4th quarter turnovers and being the worst offense generating points in the same quarter.
Try again, Boomer.
July 10th, 2026 at 2:10 pm
Joe the Bucs had no talent on defense and played like it. The offense just couldn’t get going. Joe be happy the Bucs were not in the playoffs. It would have been worse than 3-28, or equally as bad, or equally as embarrassing.Be thankful Joe be thankful
July 10th, 2026 at 2:16 pm
WBL. You are so far off with your insane bullshlt stats, I don’t know where to begin. You say we had 11 giveaways in the 4th quarter? And how is our offense supposed to score points in the 4th quarter when the other team is sticking it to our defense like a troop train visiting a brothel. Get back to me about our 11 4th qtr. turnovers, would you, WBL.
July 10th, 2026 at 2:25 pm
WBL. I counted 15 turnovers by the Bucs offense in 2025. That’s one of the lowest numbers in the league. I don’t think you are on the right page. You reckon?
July 10th, 2026 at 3:05 pm
The last 3 games last year, Bucs scored 53 points – less than 18/game
The last 3 games last year, Bucs’ D gave up 57 points – 19 points/game.
The Bucs went 1-2 last 3 games.
You’re not winning many games averaging less than 18 points/ game.
July 10th, 2026 at 3:07 pm
Last time I looked this isn’t actually an English class. The purpose of writing is simply to communicate. The question I ask myself is: can I figure out what this person is trying to actually say. Most of us are typing on phones.
July 10th, 2026 at 3:12 pm
Hopefully, we play better this year. I think we will be at least a little better. Heck! Put me on the field. You can time me with a sun dial.
July 10th, 2026 at 3:17 pm
Janitor at a gentleman (s) only club is a much higher calling than full time troll. 🤣
July 10th, 2026 at 3:29 pm
Need 4th qtr OFFENSE.
July 10th, 2026 at 3:29 pm
If Simpleton were in the Navy, he’d be on permanent barrel duty below deck.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
July 10th, 2026 at 3:58 pm
Joe … ‘And for crying out loud, is it too much to ask a defensive head coach to have a slightly better fourth-quarter defense than second-worst in points allowed?’
Sharp’s analysis:
o Bucs’ scored: 1st qtr – 71 pts … 2nd qtr – 122 pts … 3rd qtr – 105 pts … 4th qtr – 82 pts … Total scored: 380 pts
o Bucs’ surrendered: 1st qtr – 89 pts … 2nd qtr – 128 pts … 3rd qtr – 75 pts … 4th qtr – 119 pts … Total allowed: 411 pts
Just looking at numbers, the Bucs’ offense started games very slowly, but did great in the 2nd qtr, decent in the 3rd qtr, then meh in the 4th qtr. Bucs’ defense did fine in the 1st qtr, then stunk in the 2nd qtr, recovered beautifully in the 3rd qtr, and was also meh in the 4th qtr. Looks to me like BOTH the offense AND the defense were riding a roller coaster throughout each game.
And it’s that LACK OF CONSISTENCY that bugs me, for both the offense AND the defense. Like WBL wrote … ‘Terrible complimentary ball’.
Being realistic, we all know that injuries played a huge role last season. And we all know that turnovers always play a role (teams that win the Turnover Battle win 70%-78% of the time). Player talent plays a role, coaching plays a role. Heck, what players had for breakfast probably plays a role (Bucs obviously need to stick with Wheaties, the Breakfast of Champions).
Point being: It’s never JUST 1 thing; it’s always the combination of multiple factors. And all any team can do is determine what those factors were & HOPEFULLY improve during the off-season. We’ve made a bunch of changes & 2025 is now mostly irrelevant (water under the bridge as they say?). I’m confident that the changes we’ve made will strengthen us as a team. What that leads to this season is still anyone’s GUESS at this point (but hey, I’m still voting for 10-7 & the NFC South crown). HOPEFULLY the Bucs surprise me and do even better than that.
July 10th, 2026 at 4:06 pm
Whats wrong with being a janitor a gentlemens only club? I made a killing, not to mention the play…….SMDH.
July 10th, 2026 at 4:18 pm
Joe is not wrong.
But, fourth quarter play calling of consecutive passes on offense when the dogs were already running loose after Baker in anticipation of a pass gave the ball back just in time for the other team to score the winning points when running the ball in those situations would have killed most of the clock.
And, as Joe reported, the Bucs had the greatest run success on third down and the least pass success on third down.
But, in critical end of game situations, the play calls were pass, pass, pass, and punt.
July 10th, 2026 at 4:27 pm
DR. You oughta be an arbitrator, or something along those lines. 2025 is done. QBs and head coaches don’t survive losing games- they’re hired to win games. I think we’re winning the division, too. With a little luck, who knows? All you pessimists, we’ll have that purge you’re seeking if we continue losing. I can promise you that.
July 10th, 2026 at 6:50 pm
Kenton … ‘QBs and head coaches don’t survive losing games- they’re hired to win games.’
Yea verily. I personally think there’s a LOT more to the story of the Glazers keeping Bowles on as 2026 HC AND DC, but that’s pure speculation on my part (billionaires tend to be rather fussy about who they have lead their organizations; it’s THEIR money on the line, not ours).
That said, I still wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Bucs have a new HC next year, almost regardless of what Todd is able to do this year (barring winning the Super Bowl of course). He’ll be 63 years old this Fall, and that’s getting on for a HC (and for a DC). Mike Tomlin’s only 54 (almost 10 years younger) & MAY be the Glazers’ target for next year. Sean McDermott’s even younger (only 52), and like Tomlin, he has an impressive record as a HC (98-50 … 66.2% W/L vesus Tomlin’s 193-114 as a HC … 62.8% W/L). Both are taking a well-deserved season off according to what I’ve read, and MAY consider the Bucs to be a decent HC opportunity. Stranger things have happened.
July 10th, 2026 at 6:51 pm
There’s no sugar coating a bottom 3 red zone defense.
Aside from Otton getting stripped multiple times, I can’t think of many if any Baker turnovers inside our own 30 or 20 immediately setting the opposition up in the red zone.
So how exactly is Baker responsible for opposing teams marching 40+ yards to pay dirt?
I wanna state for the record that Baker sucked last half of the year and he probably shouldn’t have played but defending the defense and turning it on Baker is nasty work.
July 11th, 2026 at 12:30 am
DR. I know you’ve been a proponent of Coach relinquishing the defensive coordinator job. Todd Bowles has played on a Super Bowl winning defense- and he’s coached a Super Bowl winning defense. The dude knows some defense. It’s been funny my 3 years following the Bucs, and to hear what people think of him. Our team was spending first picks on Barton’s and Egbuka’s instead of Bain’s and Trotter’s. Still, last year we would have made the playoffs if the offense hadn’t have been on the bench. We got some free agents and some draft picks this year. Bowles is a good defensive coach. I hope you’re wrong,DR, about Bowles being in his last year.
July 11th, 2026 at 1:13 pm
Not a defensive expert at all but it was plain to me that we could not get off the field late in games. If i had to guess it cost us three games last year. Surely playing from behind also aids defenses in being able to get a better idea of what is coming late in games as well. Hats off to Baker for grinding like he did BTW. Crap O line and some not ready for prime time WRs out there. Not to mention a not ready OC. Hope we can get to a point where we don’t need Baker’s heroics late in games.
Go Bucs!