“Implied Probability” Bucs Go DL Or TE At No. 15
April 7th, 2026
Bucs GM Jason Licht.
The term “implied probability” may as well, for Joe, be called “throw [it] against the wall and see if it sticks.”
The Twitter account of someone who goes by the handle of “@fb_insights” usually has some pretty good statistical insights into football. In this instance, it has both good and bad.
Joe has no idea who the person is behind this Twitter account, and Joe has no idea where he (she?) got this data or if he (she?) put it together all alone. It has some obvious intel on the Bucs’ draft targets at No. 15 and some asinine analysis.
For example, the highest chance of the Bucs picking at No. 15 is either defensive line or edge rush. Joe has already detailed how the Bucs’ defensive line is thinner than you may think.
Edge rush? That’s obvious.
The No. 2 position is tight end. A lot of Bucs fans get angry when this is mentioned, but the Bucs are a field-stretching tight end away from potentially having a dominant offense. That’s the only weak link on the offense.
And here comes the asinine. The Bucs’ No. 3 position to draft would be, per @fb_insights, offensive line.
Pardon Joe while he wipes the tears from his eyes laughing.
Unless there’s a blockbuster trade, the Bucs are not drafting any offensive lineman at No. 15. @fb_insights admitted he/she reads the PFF tribe and only the PFF tribe would try to make a sober argument the Bucs may draft an offensive lineman at No. 15.
(And this is also why NFL general managers howl in both laughter and outrage at the PFF tribe’s dumb@ss offensive line grades.)
Where would this offensive lineman play? Are the Bucs going to bench Tristan Wirfs? Are the Bucs going to bench Luke Goedeke, who just signed a big contract last year? Are the Bucs going to bench Cody Mauch? Are the Bucs going to bench Ben Bredeson, who is in the middle of a newish three-year contract? Are the Bucs going to bench Graham Barton?
The answer to all five questions is “Hell, no!”
Don’t believe Joe? Just go back to when Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht said from the combine that the Bucs’ offensive line is the strongest position group on the team. He said it twice, both for #NFLMedia as a whole, and on the “Ira Kaufman Podcast.”
Now Joe can easily see Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht drafted a guard on the third day of the draft. The Bucs backup guards were trash last year.
Yes, Joe knows the Bucs re-signed Dan Feeney. Doesn’t mean he will make the 53-man roster come September.
Market implied probabilities of the first position that teams could draft in April pic.twitter.com/oIUUF0USrn
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 31, 2026
April 7th, 2026 at 12:25 am
No way to TE.
That would be a major disappointment. They have a very good all-around tight end. They don’t have ILB and edge and they need another CB
April 7th, 2026 at 12:33 am
and…… No one in the media saw the Bucs drafting a WR with their first pick last year.
Say… how is Cody Mach’s knee doing/going to be…. In the Last year of his contract…. Can you catch my drift?
Do , does Fred Flintstone subscribe to drafting the best player available at 15 or tip the scales to needs?
The Bucs are and have been lacking in Explosive offensive talent, sure they have had great chain movers and low on the totem pole of bell ringers… in a League tilted towards bell ringers !
April 7th, 2026 at 1:39 am
Bredeson and Mauch are still question marks after their injuries….thats why i hope we draft Ioane….Bredeson can be our swing backup. Unless sonny gets within reach and we trade up.
April 7th, 2026 at 1:42 am
Mauch told Joe last week of season he was ahead and schedule and expected to be 100 percent for OTAs, sans any setbacks. Joe had heard nothing but good things about Mauch’s recovery since.
April 7th, 2026 at 1:44 am
It’s sensible. Like an old gearbox, Bredeson might never return to full health, and we have NO depth along the interior. Mauch is due extension, followed by Barton, leaving no O-line players on rookie contracts. Drafting a stud guard on a five year deal like Seattle did last year makes the world of sense to me. And if the difference between say Messidor and R Mason Thomas isn’t that big, we pick up an EDGE in round 2.
April 7th, 2026 at 1:45 am
Again… you win games by scoring more points than the other team.
Those are literally the rules, you can look it up and everything.
With that said, I personally would not draft Sadiq at #15, but I’m not going to throw a fit if the Bucs do that. There is ZERO depth after Otton at TE – Durham is not an NFL caliber player and Culp is still very much a lottery ticket that causal fans are much higher on than the team is. Ko, meanwhile, is pretty much a dedicated blocking specialist. So TE is a need, for sure.
Ideally the Bucs could trade back, pick up an extra 2nd and/or 3rd rounder, then that would make things a lot easier as there’s a good number of receiving TE’s in this draft.