CBS: Fade The Bucs
February 20th, 2026
It seems our friends in the desert have Bucs coach Todd Bowles figured out.
Looking at the win-totals for the Bucs since Bowles took over, the Bucs have eight, nine, 10 and nine wins. So the gambling crowd from DraftKings has decided to average things out to establish the Bucs’ win-total line for 2026. Per R.J. White of CBS, DraftKings has set the Bucs’ season-win total at 8.5 wins.
So if you take the over, you are banking on the Bucs having a winning record. If you take the under, you’re betting on the Bucs having a losing record in back-to-back seasons.
White also thinks gamblers should fade the Bucs’ 8.5 win-total. In other words, bet on the under.
The Bucs are also a strong fade at plus odds having to go up against both L.A. teams.
If the Bucs end up with a losing record, that means Bowles will have a losing record in three of his five seasons as the Bucs’ head coach, including his last two.
Team Glazer generally sets its intolerance level for losing at two straight losing seasons.
February 20th, 2026 at 12:24 am
8.5+8.5=17 hmmm 8.5 That is .500. How could they have come to that one…? HAHAHAH This season is a goner. If they get rid of Dean, Evan, and others an keep Bilgewater you know the fix is in.
February 20th, 2026 at 12:52 am
Going by the end of last season, I would be SHOCKED if the Bucs get 7-8 wins…
With that schedule and subpar coaching, 7 wins is likely the Bucs ceiling…
February 20th, 2026 at 1:10 am
He has 8, 9 , 10 and 8, not 9. Let’s not gift him anything.
Speaking of gifts you forgot to factor in what happens if Todd wins the glazers another participation trophy/nfc south championship in ‘26 at 8-9.
Will the home playoff game and extra money be enough to save him yet again?
February 20th, 2026 at 1:19 am
Oh yeah, awesome….def taking the under (nothing against the players, its the D scheme and Todd.
February 20th, 2026 at 1:35 am
8-9
9-8
10-7
8-9
Average wins in a season = 8.75
It’s really hard to win in the NFL. An average of 9 wins is a winning record. Bowles is almost there.
February 20th, 2026 at 2:16 am
Looks like a brutal schedule this season….
Bowles defensive scheme just exposes players if we have no pash rush…
Simple as that 🤷🏻♂️..
Honestly, wouldn’t be surprised if we see below 6 wins…
February 20th, 2026 at 2:27 am
Yeah. I’m taking under. Except for the “we just have to coach better”. That, I’ll take the over.
February 20th, 2026 at 5:18 am
I know the media has to fill up space even during dead times in the football year like this, but it’s rather ridiculous making ANY predictions at this point in the season. None of us have the foggiest idea what OUR roster will look like come Game 1 in September, nor what any of our opponents rosters will look like.
What we do know at this point is who our 2026 opponents will be. We know that we’ll play all 4 teams in the AFC North and the NFC North. We also get to play the Chargers, Rams, Cowboys and the other 3 teams in our own NFC South twice.
Those 17 games resulted in 141 wins, 146 losses & 2 ties in 2025. And only 4 teams had 10 or more wins (Chargers, Rams, Steelers, Bears). Another 4 teams had 10 or more losses. The rest had mediocre, middle-of-the-pack records last season … just like we did.
Some will fix their major problems and improve. Some will fix very little and struggle once again. It’s not a matter of being overly-positive or overly-negative at this point about the 2026 Bucs. None of us have enough information at this point to be either. Should be a fun ride though. Usually is with the Bucs.
February 20th, 2026 at 5:35 am
Take some action now on the under assuming the Bucs will not be a major player in free agency and-or trading draft capital to get better now. If they just dabble and keep future picks, they’re definitely tanking in 2026 to draft a franchise QB in high 2027. Then plunge your lungs on the under! Note: Keeping Bowles is strong signal they’re intentionally tanking this season.
February 20th, 2026 at 5:43 am
MadMax … ‘nothing against the players, its the D scheme and Todd’.
Like you Max, I’m not enamoured with the defensive scheme that’s been run, nor with Todd Bowles being BOTH the HC AND DC. But I do take issue with the players on defense: nearly half should be replaced because they’re not talented enough to contribute to winning us another championship.
Right now (under contract) here’s who I’d keep on defense:
o Safety: Winfield, T Smith, JJ Roberts (if he’s back healthy).
o CB: McCollum, Morrison, Parrish
o ILB: Dennis
o OLB: Diaby, Nelson, D Walker, Braswell (or Mohamed Kamara if he performs better in Training Camp)
o DLine: Vea, Kancey, E Roberts
That’s 14 players. I’d also re-sign FA Izien (Safety). That’s 15.
So we’d still need 1 Safety, 2 CB, 3 ILB, 1 OLB, 3 DLine beasts. We could potentially get as many as 4-5 of those from the draft, but we’ll need to be very active in free agency to pick up 5-6 more defenders who can really help us. By redoing some high-value contracts, Bucs can easily get $80-$100 mil to spend on free agency & draft picks. We just have to spend wisely.
February 20th, 2026 at 6:19 am
I see the Bucs at 9 wins top, 7 wins bottom, so yeah, 8 is in the middle of the two. The under is probably the way to go.
At least the two L.A. games are at home and West coast teams don’t always travel well to the East coast.
I’d be much more concerned that we play the entire NFC Central with away games at Chicago and Detroit. In fact, in addition to all of the NFC South teams, the entire Bucs away schedule is brutal.
That said, the rest of the division has the same or worse brutal schedule, with the exception of the Saints. The Saints get Cardinals, Giants, Raiders. The Falcons get 49ers, Commanders, Chiefs. Panthers get Seahawks, Eagles, Broncos. Bucs get Rams, Cowboys, Chargers.
February 20th, 2026 at 6:29 am
“”None of us have the foggiest idea what OUR roster will look like come Game 1 in September, nor what any of our opponents rosters will look like.””
Very true DR but what we do know is we’ll have the worst coach in the entire NFL back directing this team right into oblivion again.
3rd and 28.
We as coaches have done all we can.
February 20th, 2026 at 8:07 am
Hc/DC is still the same everyone sees it but the glazers bad clock management bad in game decisions bad defensive scheme just a bad hc in general but culture right at least the culture is good I guess so that’s like we won the whole season before it even started yay go bucs.
February 20th, 2026 at 8:21 am
Before last season started I thought the Bucs would win all their NFCS games, The Bucs went 3-3. The Panthers and Falcons are both improving. The Saints are still in salary cap hell.
February 20th, 2026 at 8:26 am
The question is:
Are defensive players developing to slow because of the scheme. Are they focusing on to many things and not becoming good at any??????
February 20th, 2026 at 8:35 am
Yes the fix is in. Ira picked the Bucs to win like 11 games now suddenly this is a team without talent. Bowles is trash and there is nothing about his coaching history that says otherwise or that he should have gotten a contract extension. This team is extending everybody no matter how mediocre it is
February 20th, 2026 at 8:42 am
Fire Bowles now
February 20th, 2026 at 8:54 am
GREAT teams have coaches that can ADJUST their schemes to get the most out of their players talents. Todd refuses to tweak his system to fit the talent he has on the roster. Pretty much this is the way it is going to be – if you can’t buy into it , you will suck or will be gone. His player development is non-existent.
February 20th, 2026 at 9:03 am
Agree
The defense will be more of the same
RINSE AND REPEAT
SMH
February 20th, 2026 at 9:17 am
I just don’t understand this talk about the defensive players not being able to pick up the scheme. Maybe have the opposing QB explain it to them, they don’t seem to have any trouble figuring it out, heck even rookie QB’s go through it like a hot knife through butter.
February 20th, 2026 at 9:39 am
Go Bucs!!!! Fire Todd Bowles
February 20th, 2026 at 10:54 am
Slamming the under. You might get better value after the first 3 weeks. Bowles likes to start out hot. Then the mid season collapse will take place like it does every year and it will be all over after that.
February 20th, 2026 at 11:08 am
Even if the Bucs only win 5 games, that’s still 5 more wins for Bowles’ resume’ as the best Bucs twocoach.
February 20th, 2026 at 11:13 am
.@DR That is a perfect analysis of the state of the team. Clearly, there is the opportunity and resources to vastly improve the quality of the roster. Do Licht and Bowles have the wisdom and courage to to take the steps needed to make these changes?
I’m certain they don’t. Half measures will be employed due to lack of courage. They will draft a few decent guys but they will squander cap money retaining sentimental legacy players to pander to fans to make up for keeping Bowles. They will not go far enough in the restructuring to bring in the quality and quantity of FA we will need to get significantly better. They will also wait too long to restructure and miss the first wave of FA with the best players.
Once again the lack of imagination and boldness required to become an elite team will be drown in a pool of fear and lack of managerial talent. Bowles and Licht are not the answer. Extending their contracts for 3 years last season was a surrender to mediocrity. Maybe they prove me wrong but if we don’t see a rash of restructuring soon you can bet on the half measure approach and organizational failure. I hope I’m wrong. Go Bucs!!
February 20th, 2026 at 11:20 am
The odds are determined by an average but past performance can be misleading. The PATRIOTS were very poor the previous year and made the Super Bowl. The media’s bias shows its ugly head consistently every year. It’s on full display in 2026. The odds of injuries returning this year should be less, and first year players will improve, free agency and the 2026 draft could return the Bucs to the playoffs
Bowles coaching changes hopefully make a difference too, especially at OC. If Evans returns again, that’s a good sign the Bucs will be a playoff team.
February 20th, 2026 at 11:44 am
Moderated to nowhere for no reason.
Nice Joe
February 20th, 2026 at 12:29 pm
Already cancelled Sunday ticket for next year.
February 20th, 2026 at 1:15 pm
dah. Betting the under is the lock of the year. In all honesty, 8.5 wins is too high, especially with that schedule.
February 20th, 2026 at 2:00 pm
defense rules, this is for you. how many games will the defense win, and how many will they lose. last times i checked the box scores for the last 4 years, todd the fraud is way under .500 in the win category. other teams offenses will improve but toddi’s defense will continue to get worse. that’s been his MO for the last 4 years. we know what the roster will look like. we don’t need your wait and see comments. fire the fraud, and hope will return.
February 20th, 2026 at 3:00 pm
If all you guys bet the under, maybe 8.5 will drop to 6.5, and the rest of us can bet the over. I’m looking forward to the Baker Revenge Tour as the Bucs play the AFC North once apiece and a double shot of Stefanski.
February 20th, 2026 at 3:45 pm
But yet Joe can’t figure out why fans don’t like Bowles
February 20th, 2026 at 5:09 pm
NLK@boston … ‘how many games will the defense win, and how many will they lose’.
Again, no way to answer that for this coming year, but can look back at last season. Bucs’ offense averaged 22.4 PPG over the season, so any game that our offense scored 22 pts or less AND we won could be looked at as a win for the defense.
o Game 2: Beat Houston 20-19.
o Game 12: Beat Arizona 20-17.
o Game 17: Beat Carolina 16-14.
Personally I’d say that the Bucs’ defense played well enough for 60 minutes to win each of those 3 games. But there’s another game that we SHOULD have won if our offense had scored closer to their seasonal average:
o Game 16: Lost to Miami 20-17. Bucs’ defense held the Dolphins to 2 TDs & 2 FGs, but our offense committed THREE turnovers (to 0 for the Fins) that doomed us (2 of those turnovers were in the 4th qtr).
We also lost another game because of a Special Teams miscue:
o Game 4: Lost to Eagles 31-25. Bucs’ offense had a punt blocked on our very 1st drive that was run back for a TD and gave the Eagles a FREE 7 pts, while our defense sat on the bench. We lost that game by 6 pts.
Please don’t misunderstand, our defense was not good at all last season (as evidenced by us giving up 411 pts on the season. But to blame everything on the defense is showing tunnel-vision; the offense shares a significant part of the blame. Our defense was very inconsistent last season & that’s unacceptable.
February 20th, 2026 at 6:27 pm
How could they go against us? Baker was week 6 MVP… don’t they remember that?
February 20th, 2026 at 7:05 pm
Rod Munch: Why don’t you ever mention the lousy defense and terrible coaching? Is it because your pea sized brain can only focus on one thing?
February 20th, 2026 at 9:29 pm
Thanks,defense rules! Always enjoy your take on the Buccaneers and NFL!
February 20th, 2026 at 10:18 pm
For all you professional beer drinkers out there !Im sorry you weren’t tough enuf to play football cause your mommy said so. You cant hit a baseball cause daddy didn’t throw tennis ball at your head Your criticism is uncanny ! You all make Bowles look like a Lombardi Shula clone.. Joe this site is insane,at least I dont argue with my wife anymore
February 20th, 2026 at 10:21 pm
Bowles Wasn’t Held Accountable Says:
February 20th, 2026 at 7:05 pm
Rod Munch: Why don’t you ever mention the lousy defense and terrible coaching? Is it because your pea sized brain can only focus on one thing?
——–
Over the final 6 weeks, the Bucs were 10th in scoring defense and 28th in scoring offense.
One man cost the Bucs the playoffs, and it wasn’t Todd Bowles, it was the incredibly inaccurate Baker Mayfield who does what he does to every team that puts faith in him. He lets them down.
February 20th, 2026 at 11:08 pm
That defense ranked 30th from week 10 on ward. Against teams with nothing
To play for. Let that marinate.
February 21st, 2026 at 1:58 pm
Yeahmetoo Says:
February 20th, 2026 at 11:08 pm
That defense ranked 30th from week 10 on ward. Against teams with nothing
To play for. Let that marinate.
——–
Literally not true.