The Rookie Class
January 17th, 2026
Early star; late rumor.
Man, the way Bucs rookie Emeka Egbuka jumped out to such a hot start, Joe thought he was going to carry the offense.
But something happened along the way to San Jose/San Francisco/Santa Clara area of Silicon Valley where the Super Bowl will be held next month. What that something was, Joe has no idea but Egbuka vanished when the team needed him the most.
Over at BSPN, the founder of Football Outsiders (RIP) and the inventor of DVOA, Aaron Schatz, typed up a ranking of each NFL team’s rookie class.
Schatz had the Bucs at No. 16, right in the middle of the pack. And Joe is convinced had Egbuka gotten better as the season grew old, not the other way around, Schatz’s ranking for Tampa Bay would have been much better.
But fear not, Bucs fans. Schatz seems to think Mayfield’s struggles had a lot to do with Egbuka’s disappearance.
Let’s start with first-round wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. His production slowed down in the second half of the season, but that’s in part because Baker Mayfield was throwing him fewer catchable passes. For the entire season, Egbuka had 63 catches for 938 yards and six touchdowns.
There is no doubt Mayfield’s play slipped badly, too. Is that the real reason Egbuka vanished? Was Egbuka unable to adjust as defenses keyed on him more? Is one reason Josh Grizzard is gone because he couldn’t scheme Egbuka open?
Egbuka didn’t help himself with a handful of bad drops, which early in the season seemed improbable.
Here is why Joe is just a wee bit dubious of putting Egbuka’s downfall on Mayfield. Late in the season, Egbuka was splitting snaps with No. 3/4 receiver Jalen McMillan.
If Egbuka was consistently getting open, he wouldn’t have been splitting snaps with anyone.
January 17th, 2026 at 8:19 am
Its all Mayfield fault. Not only did Baker ruin EE’s opportunity for ROY, but he got Grizz fired. Grizz is going to be a super star OC, you watch. And it was Mayfield that made the O-line play so bad and have all those injuries. We have to cut Mayfield immediately before he causes more havoc.
Did I get that right Rod and WSL?
January 17th, 2026 at 8:24 am
On a serious note, I am very excited to see what someone like McD could do with Evans, Godwin, EE, J Mac and Tucker. Please come back ME, please. What a wicked offense that could be (without Grizz messing it up). EE has so much potential, but he is not ME, more of a Godwin type.
January 17th, 2026 at 8:25 am
Nothing is Bakers fault. He can do no wrong. His record in primetime game shows how clutch he is. He is a top QB in the league and nothing is ever his fault. It’s the injuries, the oline, the lack of weapons.
Did I get that right Harry?
January 17th, 2026 at 8:29 am
Joe says…
If Egbuka was consistently getting open, he wouldn’t have been splitting snaps with anyone.
Are you sure? I mean how effective was Grizzard at playing the hot hand at running back?
January 17th, 2026 at 8:37 am
Morrison is a kitten.
January 17th, 2026 at 8:41 am
Something happened during the bye week that we don’t have the specifics on but, whatever it was, it resulted in 2 – 7 with a team that looked like many quit and tuned out the coaches and the locker room went to sh#t in break neck speed. Both sides of the ball mailed it in the rest of the way. The offense had to see Grizzard was clueless. The defense as well had to see Bowles was as well. How else do you explain getting key players back during that spell and the team getting progressively worse? Coaching! The 49ers faced the same injury adversity as we did if not worse. Coaching! They also had a capable back up quarterback who they weren’t afraid to play when Purdy needed time to heal. They lost key defensive players and still balled out. Coaching!
January 17th, 2026 at 8:44 am
I’m waiting to hear news of how the McDaniel interview went.
January 17th, 2026 at 8:51 am
@Joe
Your question at the end of the article begs another question.
Why stick with Bucky at RB if RW and ST are both producing more YPC?
Also, why stick with an edge rusher that can’t produce any pressure on the opposing QB?
Also, why keep kicking the ball to the returner when you’re getting destroyed on returns, even after “we talked about” kicking through the end zone.
And finally, why pull a guy off of a high school side line, bring him in as your #2 QB then keep him on the bench while your “injured” #1 QB can’t throw past the line of scrimmage accurately.
I have lots of questions about decisions this organization makes. But my biggest question is why isn’t Todd Bowles unemployed?
January 17th, 2026 at 8:51 am
I’m awaiting news regarding the “new hires” while listening to classic 70’s songs like The Wreck of the Supertramp by Edmond Fitzgerald
January 17th, 2026 at 8:51 am
I believe this is exactly why high-quality coaching matters so much. The right coaches & assistant coaches make it a point to constantly & consistently understand not only a player’s skill set and abilities but the PLAYER himself. All of which can change from week to week based on little injuries and their mental health or state of mind.
You take ALL of the information you have week to week & use that to put your players in the best possible plays for success. This was clearly NOT happening for much of 2025. This is obviously not easy. It requires a tremendous amount of several things: Knowledge, Sports Psychology, Strong organizational skills, Informed Decision-Making & several other qualities.
This is why it is SO IMPORTANT for the BUCS to pick the right OC for this team!
A legit proven experienced offensive play caller is likely the smartest path for us.
I sincerely hope that whoever made the choices for all these coaches that we just let go learned from those and picks higher quality, better experienced coaches this time around!
January 17th, 2026 at 8:52 am
Danny Mac Says:
January 17th, 2026 at 8:44 am
I’m waiting to hear news of how the McDaniel interview went.
—————
You and me both – and everyone else. Looking for a shimmer of light in the darkness.
January 17th, 2026 at 8:53 am
Really?! Bake did have a different countence a couple times I haven’t seen before. Ingured? OC? HC? Other distractions? Maybe offensive line injuries? When Mike is out they almost always lose regardless. EE is great with Mike on the other side. Uhh. Changes are coming.
January 17th, 2026 at 8:56 am
Well at least no more Russell Shepard and the offense did get stale. Egbuka did a lot of damage in the deep middle of the field and defenses took that away from Grizz he didn’t adjust either. Fans should probably stop obsessing over the next OC. Even if it is McDaniel doesn’t matter. Coen gave Bowles a top 5 offense Bowles gave you 10 wins. Unless they bolster the front 7 with all free agents veterans lol this defense will be trash and this week be a throwaway season with a top 5 offense
January 17th, 2026 at 9:01 am
Something was eerie after the bye. Thinking changes are coming next season and Egbuka getting back to where he was early this season.
January 17th, 2026 at 9:09 am
EE was 20 yards downfield….hard to catch a 3 yard pass…
January 17th, 2026 at 9:11 am
The title says rookie class, but you only talk about EE.
RD 2 Morrison C- Need to see more this year when he’s healthy
RD 3 Parrish B+
RD 4 Walker No grade
RD 5 Roberts B-
RD 7 Johnson B
Another pretty good draft by JL. We’ll see how it turns out for sure in a few years
January 17th, 2026 at 9:21 am
Blame startes with the HC. TB needs to adjust play on the field as needed. Can anyone say that happened under him. Injuries definitely hurt the Bucs but some of the blame goes directly to TB.
He needs to address his hesitantly. He’s their leader. No one is perfect. His hesitantcy has been the Bucs biggest problem. Ask the question WHAT DID SHANAHAN do in San Francisco to keep his team in the playoffs. Todd Bowles should try it because what you are doing is not working.
January 17th, 2026 at 9:27 am
@Bucs Guy is on the money. I’d be slightly more generous but not much. EE (B+) really disappointed me with the drops – very surprising. J-Mac did look very good when he came back and took away snaps from EE. The competition between those guys will be good for the team next year.
January 17th, 2026 at 9:41 am
@Senor Harry
“but that’s in part because Baker Mayfield was throwing him fewer catchable passes.”
137 Targets
63 catches
9 drops credited
So we know what happened on at least 72 of his 137 targets.
I bet if Egbuka could defy physics, time and space to throw himself more catchable passes on a consistent enough basis, he’d be the unanimous OROY 😂
January 17th, 2026 at 9:44 am
Mayfield is a hero-ball quarterback. He’s a short guy, who always feels like he has to prove himself, and that leads to him taking on players instead of sliding. His injuries are inevitable and they hurt the team. He slid more as the season progressed but it was too little too late. He’d already damaged his body. To compensate for his hardheadedness, the Bucs need more o-line depth depth and a very good backup qb. Sit Mayfield when he gets hurt.
January 17th, 2026 at 9:51 am
IWRONG SEÑOR!
Todd is responsible for having a healthy Baker by benching him when necessary.
2026 is RINSE AND REPEAT 🤯
January 17th, 2026 at 9:51 am
The rookie class was solid year 1, but general rule of thumb is wait between years 2 and 3 to see how the class fully transitions to the pro game.
The player I wanted to see the most got hurt, and for what we didn’t get out of Morrison right, we found something with Elijah Roberts as the season went on.
Parrish will develop, but he looked good being the only rookie outside of EE thrust into the lineup from the jump.
DT Landon Robinson ‘26
January 17th, 2026 at 9:52 am
Lot of problems. Injuries to almost everyone including Baker. Defenses figured him out cuz he ended up as WR1. Grizzard couldn’t scheme him open. Cant expect rookies to carry that load. Enough reasons?
January 17th, 2026 at 9:53 am
It was a great draft.
Licht did a great job.
We got 2 WR who played very well for rookies
We got 2 CBs who can start and hold their own.
We got 2 DL who are tough. Roberts and Walker.
It was a solid draft.
We just need 2 MLB next year.
We need a DT. A NT. And a DE.
Our offensive line is returning. (With 2 hurt guards)
January 17th, 2026 at 10:06 am
Bucs Guy … You’re a lot more generous than I am. Tend to be a big believer in ‘You are what your record says you are’. There were 15 NFL teams that had better records than we did in 2025, plus 5 teams that had the same 8-9 record. That’d put us ranking someplace between #16 to #20 this past year. That’s middle-of-the-pack mediocrity at best.
In 2024 we had a 10-7 record. Only 9 teams had a better record than we did, plus 6 teams had a 10-7 record. I’d say we would’ve ranked someplace between #10 to #15. Considerably better than we did in 2025. We had a LOT of the same starters, plus a handful of free agents, plus the rookie class. Sorry but neither the FAs nor the rookie class scream ‘Hey, we’re ready for the Super Bowl’. It’ll be interesting to see how many of this rookie class get to be signed for a 2nd contract in 3 years. I’m thinking 2 at most (Egbuka & Parrish).
January 17th, 2026 at 10:08 am
Not worth the draft pick in the first round.
January 17th, 2026 at 10:11 am
I checked the list. Notably had the Saints #1, Panthers #5, Falcons #6
January 17th, 2026 at 10:26 am
Not sure if splitting snaps with McMillan had anything to do with his play on the field because bowels had our best corner Dean splitting with Morrison instead of Zyon which wel all know had the subpar play on the field and needed his snaps diminished
January 17th, 2026 at 10:32 am
Good analogy, DTownva
Also extends to some of deep balls he through that either didn’t get through the
defense or sailed over the receivers head.
January 17th, 2026 at 10:33 am
Good analogy, DTownva
^^^^^threw^^^^^
January 17th, 2026 at 10:54 am
Great signing on Zyon McCollum at 16 mil per year with 35 mil guaranteed-Keep those bored guys coming Jason Licht.
January 17th, 2026 at 10:54 am
I don’t know how Joe rights this piece with a straight face. Acting perplexed that some how the wheels came off the bus. Gimme a break. This season was no different from last season of the season before that. Todd gets off to fast starts then crashes like a meth head. Only difference this year they didn’t bounce back on a steady diet of 3rd and 4th string QBs. The narrative at obp was to go another season with Todd… A poor woke judgement and Joe’s are obligated to push that narrative.
January 17th, 2026 at 11:32 am
Geeze, guys. The whole darn team went to charlie heck in a hand basket after the bye week. Nothing and nobody played worth a darnold. The defense had always been bad, but it went strait down the toilet bowles after the bye. Baker was obviously hurt, but he didn’t have any protection even before the bye. That’s how he got hurt in the first place. Honestly, it seems that all the receivers simply quit on him. The defensive backs quit from the beginning, but the receivers quit by the second half…I guess because they were disgusted with the defense. It was here that I’d read…after the defense gave up a first down after a 3rd and 28…one of the receivers complaining about it. I can’t remember which one. One of you will remember.
That is precisely why none of us can believe bowlzo was retained.
January 17th, 2026 at 11:34 am
WSL,
First let me say, I very much enjoy reading your posts, unless you are talking about Baker (almost the same with Rod, but he goes to extremes on all things, always). Your posts are intelligent and well thought out – you clearly know the game.
When it comes to Baker, I take a different, less one sided position on blame. Baker without a doubt deserves some blame, but also some credit, which some posts seem to conveniently ignore (especially Rod’s). It is a TEAM game. All those INTs, I would share most of the blame with Baker and Grizz – WHY were our WRs not getting open DOWNFIELD? Throwing INTs late with the game on the line, terrible Baker.
What happened to the offense in the beginning the season compared to the last half – we go from throwing downfield to all freaking screen routes. Some of that is also clearly injuries to the O-line, Bake had less time to throw. BUT come on Grizz, run more 12 formations for blocker, keep RW back to block (except RW was rarely in the game?) etc.
When Baker was being recognized by experts and NFL players as a real potential MVP, that is dismissed as BS. But Bake does not deserve all the credit there either as he had a great team around him allowing him to look good.
Baker throwing INTs late in the game? Stop it, that’s on Bake. Baker playing hurt? While I appreciate Bake’s “grit”, GTFU and recognize when you are hurting the team (same for Grizz – but Grizz couldn’t recognize which RB has the “hot hand”, forgot RW is a better WR than RB, did not look at stats to see RW had better production than Bucky, etc). It’s a team game, and they all contributed. It was a complete total disaster of a season
January 17th, 2026 at 11:38 am
Jason with another good draft. A few stayers and some depth pieces. I was deff impressed with this class outside of Morrison and walker. Walker didn’t play and Morrison has a tough position to play not only at the nfl level but in Bowles scheme. I’m not going back on my word here but when you don’t have legit edge rushers and can’t get to the QB it makes it that much harder to play corner. The one thing I know is Bowles can develop DBs.
January 17th, 2026 at 11:45 am
Egbuka wasn’t necessarily the number 1 receiver at Ohio State and maybe he just wasn’t used to getting doubled a lot and defenses are much better at disguises in the pros than college. He may become a number #1 receiver but that also may take time. If Mike comes back and stays healthy then he will get the majority of the double teams and Egbuka may light it up again. In addition the rookie wall is a real thing and he may have hit it. Hopefully the offseason gives him a chance to get his body back and he will be the receiver we saw at the beginning of the season.
January 17th, 2026 at 11:54 am
Everyone gets worse under a Tood Bloweszo double half coiched team. Regression is his superpower.
January 17th, 2026 at 12:32 pm
Fanofdabucs Says:
January 17th, 2026 at 8:25 am
Nothing is Bakers fault. He can do no wrong. His record in primetime game shows how clutch he is. He is a top QB in the league and nothing is ever his fault. It’s the injuries, the oline, the lack of weapons.
————
Thank you for saying what needs to be said. So many people around here want to bash Baker and not accept him as their Lord and Savior. I tell you, those people are possessed by SATAN!
The unbelievers – just watch, when Baker gets healthy, he’s going to bring forth a new era of production unseen before, and make Tom Brady look like a chump with his measly 7 Super Bowls.
But alas our God must get healthy. Then you’ll see…
January 17th, 2026 at 12:37 pm
Senor Harry in Costa Rica Says:
January 17th, 2026 at 11:34 am
WSL,
First let me say, I very much enjoy reading your posts, unless you are talking about Baker (almost the same with Rod, but he goes to extremes on all things, always). Your posts are intelligent and well thought out – you clearly know the game.
When it comes to Baker, I take a different, less one sided position on blame. Baker without a doubt deserves some blame, but also some credit, which some posts seem to conveniently ignore (especially Rod’s). It is a TEAM game.
———————
Wait – you’re saying it’s a team game? Blasphemy! How dare you imply that Baker didn’t single-handedly win those games early in the year. MVP Baker is the greatest of all time! How dare you besmirch his name! Begone with your hate and lies!
January 17th, 2026 at 12:43 pm
How the hell did you read Joe’s stories about Bowles and come to the conclusion Joe thought he should have been back? Promise you the Bucs didn’t feel that way.
Did Joe believe Bowles was going to return? Sure felt that way — Joe just doesn’t go to One Buc Palace to drink free Cokes and watch dudes walk out of the shower. That doesn’t mean Joe thought he *should* return. Big, big difference between “should” and “believe.”
January 17th, 2026 at 12:49 pm
This was the precarious situation of drafting EE over defensive guys like Jihad, Pierce, Schwessinger, etc.
With Evans on the team, you have 4 high- investment WRs. There’s only 1 ball to go around, can’t feed everybody.
Based on EE’s skillet and measurables, he looks more like a #2. So without Evans, we essentially have 3 #2 WRs but not a bonafide #1.
January 17th, 2026 at 1:06 pm
@Senor Harry
Thank you for the kind words, and much respect for realizing Rod & I are totally seperate people.
To your point, it’s less about just blame and more about accountability with Baker. For me it’s not just throwing x-amount of INTs and more about the how, why, when and where relative to the game scenario.
1st quarter 0-0 game, eh bad play by us good play by the D, and we’ve got to bounce back from that.
2nd half leading or trailing, as you score you close a deficit or build a lead, that opportunity to do either is gone and so is the clock. Much harder to bounce back with limited time and opportunities.
I’m not saying “hey, if he throws more than x-amount of INTs, he stinks” no, I’m more concerned about when they happen and how they change games. Outside of scoring, generating chunk plays, and penalties, nothing else changes football games faster than giveaways. That’s the basis of how I see the game of football and why I place emphasis on
That said, I have no problem being honest about Baker. Is he capable of running an offense that game can win football games? Absolutely, I’ve seen it watching the last few years.
Now, the money question is when things aren’t going right or certain players aren’t availabe does Mayfields’ talent from the QB position help mitigate that or does his play take a hit(no pun intend) when the table isn’t fully set for him? Or rather, is he the same guy whether he has or has not?
Also,
-Landon Robinson ‘26-
January 17th, 2026 at 1:06 pm
IMO, EE hit the rookie wall…It is what it is. It happens.
WTS, I look forward to seeing what the 2026 version of EE looks like…I can envision a much more assertive EE now that he fully understands what it takes to take care of his body and mind over the course of a NFL season.
January 17th, 2026 at 2:03 pm
@Rod
“Wait – you’re saying it’s a team game? Blasphemy! How dare you imply that Baker didn’t single-handedly win those games early in the year.”
Wow, how convenient to ignore part of my post that said exactly that. But I would expect nothing less from you. You are like a dog with a bone when you sent your mind on “its all Baker’s fault”
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
So here, I made it easy for you and reposted for you:
“But Bake does not deserve all the credit there either as he had a great team around him allowing him to look good.”
don’t get me wrong Rod, I like your posts and always read them, unless I see Bakers name in them. Then I know you are hammering home your loathing of Baker and I don’t need to read any further.
January 17th, 2026 at 2:08 pm
HeartyDickerson Says:
Based on EE’s skillet and measurables, he looks more like a #2. So without Evans,
we essentially have 3 #2 WRs but not a bonafide #1.
————–
So you think there’s like 7 #1 WRs in the NFL?
January 17th, 2026 at 2:09 pm
Senor Harry — Here’s a secret… my post wasn’t actually aimed at you.
January 17th, 2026 at 2:22 pm
Rod, truly LMAO. I have never observed you being bashful, or indirect about pointing out someone’s opinion that you disagreed with. Too funny.
My apologies.
January 17th, 2026 at 2:30 pm
Maybe, the season started to wear a bit on EE. I don’t think so. I prob saw at least 30 of his college games at a minimum, while at Ohio State. He didn’t look any differently. Maybe, he lost a little confidence and his burst after the hamstring and then it just started to kind of snowball from there. You could definitely tell a big difference when JMac got in there… He came in FRESH with a lot of alpha energy and FIRE. Need to get a TRUE #1 in that 2027-Class (cough, cough, Cam Coleman?) to pair with those two, & then we’ll be sitting pretty! As long as we’re not in a position to grab one of the top 2 or 3 QB’s. Then, try to sign or draft your #1-WR in 2028, with your new QB on his ‘rookie’ deal. I just hope that we LOAD UP on 2027-PICKS, if given the opportunity! Want to get this roster rebuilt and in a solid position (especially upfront, on both sides of the ball), before drafting a QB on that ‘rookie’ deal. Get him into a real good spot to succeed and in a great salary cap position, to fill-out the rest of the roster with. DON’T just ‘settle’ Florida the 3rd/4th/5th QB in 2027, just for the helluvit! Sign a solid “bridge-guy” and continue to build the roster. Or, use your ‘deadline’ picks gained, in order to move-up for QB #1 or #2… Or, for Jeremiah Smith!!!!
January 17th, 2026 at 3:20 pm
Ebuka is the least of the team’s worries. They had a decent draft but need to go all in on defense this year.
DT
LB
LB
CB
CB
Plus free agents.
January 17th, 2026 at 3:30 pm
Typical below average Jason draft
Leopard always changes his spots right ?
January 17th, 2026 at 4:42 pm
Senor Harry in Costa Rica Says:
January 17th, 2026 at 8:19 am
“Its all Mayfield fault. Not only did Baker ruin EE’s opportunity for ROY, but he got Grizz fired. Grizz is going to be a super star OC, you watch. And it was Mayfield that made the O-line play so bad and have all those injuries. We have to cut Mayfield immediately before he causes more havoc.
Did I get that right Rod and WSL?”
Way to go Senor Harry! The Baker haters are plentiful. Don’t forget about Bee.
January 17th, 2026 at 4:56 pm
Hoping we get McDaniel. Next year . AFC. North 2- 2
NFC north 2-2
NFC. South 3-3
Chargers w, rams l, cowboys,w
9-8
January 17th, 2026 at 5:16 pm
I see several of you compared the Buc situation to the 49rs and their great coach Shanahan. He is so much better than Bowels it’s like chess and checkers. But don’t overlook the GM. Lynch keep the 49rs in the hunt with mid-season talent added. What did our “great” GM do after the draft? He might as well been in Africa for the past 7 months. HE NEEDS TO GO WITH BOWELS!
Darn, I referred to the Bucs’ GM as “our” GM. Sorry for the error.
January 17th, 2026 at 5:20 pm
Rod Munch Says:
January 17th, 2026 at 12:32 pm
Fanofdabucs Says:
January 17th, 2026 at 8:25 am
Nothing is Bakers fault. He can do no wrong. His record in primetime game shows how clutch he is. He is a top QB in the league and nothing is ever his fault. It’s the injuries, the oline, the lack of weapons.
————
”
Thank you for saying what needs to be said. So many people around here want to bash Baker and not accept him as their Lord and Savior. I tell you, those people are possessed by SATAN!
The unbelievers – just watch, when Baker gets healthy, he’s going to bring forth a new era of production unseen before, and make Tom Brady look like a chump with his measly 7 Super Bowls.
But alas our God must get healthy. Then you’ll see…
Look up the word blasphemy. Your language and your insults are juvenile but this takes the cake.
January 17th, 2026 at 5:37 pm
Senor Harry in Costa Rica – Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely think Baker cost the team making the playoffs with how poorly he played during that critical 4-game stretch – but specifically talking about ‘single handedly losing games’ is a knock at all those who claimed early in the year he ‘single handedly won games’ — yet when he played poorly, it was never his fault, he was hurt, his offensive line let him down, the OC, the receivers… it always something.
But if you’re willing to admit Baker has faults, you’re not a Baker Boi, and thus I can have a reasonable conversation, even if we disagree.
January 17th, 2026 at 7:25 pm
It’s futile to talk about a Bucs future that doesn’t include a top 5 draft pick as long as Mr Doublefail is employed.