Solving Why Baker Mayfield’s Play Has Deteriorated
December 24th, 2025
Statistical plunge on Baker Mayfield reveals concerning data.
One of a handful of smart people at ESPN, NFL analyst Ben Solak, decided to do a deep dive to figure out what is going on with Baker Mayfield falling off a cliff statistically since the bye.
Solak suggests Mayfield’s career numbers are similar to his numbers this year. It was last year, Solak typed, that was his career outlier (in a good way).
Solak took the long road to conclude Mayfield’s issue this season (if he is not hurt) is that he misses Liam Coen. A lot.
But Mayfield’s off-target rate this season is 16.8%, right around his career average (16.2%). The outlier season was actually last year when he had an 11.8% off-target rate — easily the best of his career. His completion rate this season (61.6%) is right below his career average (63.3%), while last season’s 71.4% rate was the best of his career by more than 7 percentage points.
I still think it’s true that Mayfield is playing at less than 100 percent. But we so quickly change our opinion on quarterbacks year over year that an astonishing season like Mayfield’s 2024 campaign quickly throws our perspective out of whack. This season isn’t the surprising or inexplicable season. Last season was. It was the presence of a largely healthy offensive line and an elite schemer in Liam Coen that inflated Mayfield’s play beyond what should reasonably be expected of him. (Don’t worry, Jags fans. Trevor Lawrence is different.)
We can call this season a return to Earth for Mayfield while still acknowledging the extenuating circumstances. First-time offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard is still finding himself and what he believes on offense, as the Bucs’ approach has vacillated between various identities to account for different players’ availability. The absence of Bucky Irving has dramatically affected the Bucs’ running game (0.05 EPA per rush this season vs. minus-0.04 last season) and their screen game (0.21 EPA per dropback last season, 0.02 EPA this season). The absence of wide receiver Mike Evans has dramatically affected their red zone touchdown rate (66.7% last season as compared with 54.5% this season). And of course, the lack of Coen affects all of this.
Joe is no fan of blowhard Colin Cowherd. He is demonstrably wrong about so many things and what Joe hates about the guy, aside from his arrogance, is that he has bragged that he doesn’t care if he’s accurate.
Why should Joe waste valuable time listening to tripe from someone who doesn’t care about accuraccy? Joe could just go to Hooters and listen to a welder talk football. And have a much better time, too.
Here is what Cowherd said recently (Joe is summarizing) about Mayfield.
Mayfield resurrected his football career playing for Sean McVay and Liam Coen in Los Angeles.
In Tampa, Mayfield first played for Dave Canales. The 2023 Bucs offensive coordinator then went to Carolina and in two years he has an edge on the Bucs for the NFC South crown.
Then, Mayfield played for Coen. In his first year in Jacksonville this season, Coen took over a woeful franchise with an underwhelming No. 1 overall pick of a quarterback, and Coen now has the Jags one game from the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
So, Cowherd contends, Mayfield was around three excellent offensive minds in three seasons and it’s unreasonable to expect a quarterback to have four really good coordinators in succession. And as long as Mayfield has a good coordinator, he’s fine.
(Note: It is Cowherd who thinks Canales is an excellent offensive mind, not Joe.)
Again, Joe is not a Cowherd fan, but he seems to be onto something.
(Background for the graphic below: “Success rate” is when an offense gains 50 percent of needed yards to convert on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth downs.)
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 23, 2025
December 24th, 2025 at 9:11 am
That fall off was very similar to the injury year in Cleveland. I’d like to see it correlated to coaching changes or one other variable.
December 24th, 2025 at 9:19 am
There is truth to the QB/coordinator relationship but there have been too many missed passes this year and not ones over 20 yards. I think Grizz has put this team in bad situations but more so the players when the play is there to be made and it’s not made. Last games 3 tries inside the 5 to get a TD, the misses before against the Saints and others, a lot of that is play calling, or the formation it’s run out of. Quick passing to start the ball rolling or keep it rolling. Going with what works and not with what isn’t, not that hard to figure out. It seems that when the offense is rolling and scoring enough points to win the defense has flat rolled over. When the Defense has held teams down then the offense doesn’t score enough to win. Don’t even talk about not-so-special teams
December 24th, 2025 at 9:20 am
It’s easy folks. Coaching and scheme. Bucs let an offensive GENIUS walk to keep a mediocre HC and replaced said the Genius with a football neophyte. Kudos to the GREAT Liam Coen for getting the hell out of here. He saw it and didn’t want to be a part of anything Todd Bowles is doing.
December 24th, 2025 at 9:21 am
When an offense can’t throw downfield it becomes predictable and easy pickings for even an average NFL defense.
When an offense has two 3rd string guards playing and is attempting to run the football 35-40 times a game it becomes predictable and easy pickings for even an average NFL defense.
Defenses are just stacking the box and inviting Baker to throw deep.
The reason the Bucs don’t throw deep?
Because Baker is incapable of throwing deep…
Either find a new QB or find a new OC that can figure out how to best utilize Baker’s abilities.
Coen understood that throwing deep (at least a few times a game) is mandatory – however Baker also led the NFL in both interceptions and fumbles in 2024…
Pick your poison.
A dink and dunk predictable lame offense or a weak armed QB who leads the NFL in turnovers.
December 24th, 2025 at 9:26 am
Hi Joe, the whole team is a mystery at present. We have two teams. If Baker missed Cohen, how do you explain his play early on?. The Seattle game, San Francisco game?. Similarly, how do you explain the ATL, game , Saints game. The Car game understandlable.
My humble opinion while not understanding the team collapse, except the players losing confidence, I think some is explainable.
Baker, yes injuries played a role prior, now it appears he has them behind him for the most part. Presently, I think he is uncomfortable in the pocket, very poor play interior guards. He gets happy feet, panics he will have to avoid the sack and throws the ball quicker than he would like. The Car game the last interception may be the clue. He moves to avoid the rush then panics and gets rid of the ball instead of waiting to see where Evans goes. If you watch as Evans turns he is wide a– open but Baker unloads to quick instead of waiting for Evans. QB as Baker says is about split seconds decisions and when expected to get sacked or over worrying about it leads to poor and inaccurate decisions. However, in the Car. game when you are only running the ball well, hard for the qb to make much of a difference until the interception.
The other factors, yes no pash rush. We did not have on e before the season nothing changed and in fact maybe worse.
Bucky, not playing like last year and White is having the better season , but underutilized. Tha is the OC plain and simple. Inside IB, problem last year this year the same. Poor decisions Licht, Bowles not to strenghten position. Secondary, two new players, Smith , Parrish, but alarming poor play by McColumn. Winfield , has disappeared. I don’t know, can anybody really explain the team before the by and the team after?
December 24th, 2025 at 9:30 am
No QB in the league is playing at 100% after mid season
They have to suck it up and keep it moving
That’s why they get paid the big bucks
There’s no excuses for these QBs,
Some have it and some don’t have it
December 24th, 2025 at 9:32 am
“But Mayfield’s off-target rate this season is 16.8%, right around his career average (16.2%). The outlier season was actually last year when he had an 11.8% off-target rate — easily the best of his career. His completion rate this season (61.6%) is right below his career average (63.3%), while last season’s 71.4% rate was the best of his career by more than 7 percentage points.”
Because last year he threw a crap ton of sideways passes.
Don’t take my word for it, look at the combined targets of Bucky & Rachaad from 2024.
Evans led the team with 110 targets
Otton was 2nd with 87
Rachaad & Bucky combined had 109 targets for a combined 789 net yards as both combined for -259 yards combined yard before catch.
The folly is, comparing this year to just last year and not looking at it in the scope of Mayfields career. Law of averages is putting belt to ssa this season
December 24th, 2025 at 9:41 am
Uh oooo.
Sounds like this years bust is starting to look more like a Mayfield issue than a Bowles issue?!
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again
CLOSE THE BALERY!!
December 24th, 2025 at 9:41 am
Trade Baker to the Bengals and a 1st round pick please, he is who we thought he was
December 24th, 2025 at 9:41 am
CLOSE THE BAKERY*
December 24th, 2025 at 9:51 am
When it was first announced that Baker was signed by the Bucs I was thrilled. I stated here on JBF at that time that if Baker could be paired with “his version” of Sean Payton that the Bucs may have found “their version” of Drew Brees. It was clearly obvious that Coen was that man. Does anyone not think that Baker and Coen could not have a long successful run with the Bucs ? Were the owners so very loyal to the mediocrity of Bowles that they just couldn’t bear to let him go ? Or did they try to get cute, save money, and have their cake and eat it too ? Regardless they made a very poor decision. After 50 years I am done being a fan of this team. I will follow JBF only to follow the team news in hopes of seeing a change that I view as unlikely. The NFL is corrupt. Outcomes are steered if not rigged. It is so bad that the blatantly wrong calls make front page news on major networks yet the fans roll over, yawn and beg for more. Players and coaches are prosecuted for corrupt gambling crimes. Read the news. Someone has to speak out and stand up. I don’t want it to be this way. I just want to watch honest sports competition. Let the best man/team win. Let me have my heroes (Larry Bird). Let me know my teams players came to play and give their best win or lose. I don’t mind being a fan of a lovable loser if they are truly trying to win. Does anyone here think Larry Bird would not give his best at all times ? Does anyone here think Red Auerbach would accept anything but the best ? I use basketball as an example because it matters not which sport it is. It’s about integrity and putting a team on the field, court, rink or diamond that represents the community it serves and profits from. It’s about respecting that fan base.
Stop feeding the fans poop and telling them it tastes good.
December 24th, 2025 at 9:52 am
This is bigger than Mayfield alone
This is an issue, with everyone stinking the field
There’s not a Buc player on the field standing out
They all are playing like trash
The coaches are confused and can’t find an answer
The GM haven’t made any moves to improve the team
The only moves he made was to bring in a High School coach who haven’t thrown a pass in years. And a 40 year old Edge Rusher, who haven’t played in years
This whole organization is in Suck mode
December 24th, 2025 at 9:53 am
Baker is an average QB unfortunately. Our HC is below average. Our OC is well below average, our GM is not looking so great. Our ST coach is the worm in the tequila bottle. Other than that, we’re great!
Hey – did Braswell not make the ProBowl? I’m “shocked” by that.
December 24th, 2025 at 9:57 am
POOPY BELIEVES if Bucs signed Burrow he would win a Superbowl immediately, Baker always blows it when the game counts, a white Jameis
December 24th, 2025 at 10:00 am
The Bucs roster is loaded with below average players
Look at how Licht draft picks disappear after they leave Tampa
December 24th, 2025 at 10:00 am
Baked Goods go stale too…..
December 24th, 2025 at 10:01 am
I agree with the article. The team has had HC/DC and HC/OC last few years. This year we have Todd from the Jets, and Mayfield from Carolina.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:02 am
Why do Bucs fan continue this narrative that there was a choice with Coen?
It’s fake news and please go back through the timeline and understand that there is no precedent to firing a coach who is continuing to show upside (don’t say dungy, 100% different circumstance). And not only firing that coach, but promoting someone below said coach with one year of play calling experience. I’d love to see an example, but don’t think you’ll find one.
We’re moving backwards talking about Coen. Move forward. It’s over, and there was nothing we could have done to keep him. We weren’t firing Jason ( yes Coen had a better deal in Jacksonville building his entire team – including GM). We weren’t firing Bowles.
MOVE ON!
December 24th, 2025 at 10:04 am
I think Roger is correct about most of the fans but not all of the fans.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:04 am
In other words he is trash… you have qbs like baker and sam darnold who need to be caressed and cuddled by coaching… and then you have qbs like josh allen and stafford who just sling mf touchdowns no matter what.. got it
December 24th, 2025 at 10:05 am
He can’t drop and effectively throw out of the pocket . I think the batted balls have canceled / affected his downfield field throws 10-25 yards …….the play has to break down to create pocket movement for a secondary throwing lane . He also hurt his hand and his shoulder while throwing ( in motion) in the pocket and subsequently got hit while throwing several times afterwards . To take it just a little further , this is causing him to 100% rip balls that don’t need 110% max velocity because he’s trying to get it out so fast……..Bottom Line !! He s not comfortable in pocket !!
December 24th, 2025 at 10:08 am
Deeboooo Says:
December 24th, 2025 at 10:02 am
Why do Bucs fan continue this narrative that there was a choice with Coen?
^^^^
Because there WAS a choice with Coen.
Now I will get on with my blessed day.
Have a good time Bucs fans.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:09 am
I remember there were people here saying Baker made Coen but now we are seeing loud and clear that Coen got the best out of Baker. Baker has a career outlier year and they said coaching had nothing to do with it. Welp now we missed out on a generational offensive mind for an average HC that has openly spoken about retiring soon. Good work Bucs!
December 24th, 2025 at 10:13 am
Joe … ‘Why should Joe waste valuable time listening to tripe from someone who doesn’t care about accuraccy?’
The devil made me do it Joe … check the spelling of the word ‘accuraccy’? There’s a certain irony in there.
Beyond that, fabulous article Joe. I think you hit the nail on the head with Baker misses Liam Coen … a LOT.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:13 am
Time to bring back Todd Monken, between his stops at Georgia and Baltimore, he can surely put together a great staff and get the most out of our offensive weapons
December 24th, 2025 at 10:13 am
Not too long ago they were calling Baker Mayfield the Head Coach maker. They was saying he was the reason why Dave Canales, Liam Coen got Head coaching jobs.
Now they’re saying the Bucs should have fired Bowles and promoted Coen
I’m sure Tom Brady won multiple Super Bowls with different OC
But Mayfield has to be cuddled like a newborn baby, to get him going
December 24th, 2025 at 10:13 am
The eye test doesn’t lie….our Oline is not protecting Mayfield……he is rushed…..often throws immediately to a back or WR short of the sticks….rarely even looks downfield. WRs don’t have time to get open….when he does he forces throws into coverage.
Teams are taking away our RB screens & WR screens. Injuries to Bucky, Oline & Baker & WRs has hurt.
There is a very thin line between the heroic early Baker comebacks & the last 4 games….he’s had the chance to win and has failed.
This is really going to cost him with his next contract.
Our losing is on the Defense….but our “not winning” is on Baker (if that makes any sense)
December 24th, 2025 at 10:15 am
Deeblow says:
“We weren’t firing Bowles”
And therein lies the problem. This ownership group isnt forward thinking enough. The Bucs had themselves a young Sean McVay, a great offensive mind and you dont let those walk out the door so you cam keep a dinosaur DC.
They should have thanked Bowles for his time and offered the HC job to Coen.
As you correctly mentioned, it’s in the past, so time to move forward. Sadly
December 24th, 2025 at 10:22 am
Sal
Of course there is a choice, but let’s play this out
The owners have a meeting at the end of the season to evaluate and say “we want Coen. How do we make it happen? We need to match the other offers he will receive. We don’t know yet what offers are out there, so let’s blow it
All up after another winning season and playoff appearance to out all our cards in on Coen. He’s a first time play caller in the NFL. Never held an upper coaching position. Should we bet on a guy with no repeatable results?”
I think anyone in business or any discipline would say no. It’s the right answer.
If we were tanking, I’d say go all in.
Hindsight is 20/20 right? I get that. I still don’t think Coen has proven anything other than being able to effectively call plays. I wanna see what happens to him as a coach when adversity hits. Maybe he’s then next great HC? Maybe it’s a fluke outlier year for him? Who knows, I certainly don’t but I’m also not putting all my cards in on an unproven coach just yet. We won’t know until we see REPEATABLE results
Have a great holiday. But stop whining please.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:25 am
Nice
Bully tatics, love it
IlL mAkE fUn Of YoUr NaMe. ThAt WiLl ShOw My DoMiNaNcE
Ok Boomer! Enjoy your mid day jello at the retirement home
December 24th, 2025 at 10:26 am
Translation: Grizzard sucks, Mayfield hasn’t been 100% healthy most of the season, and injuries.
WE ABSOLUTELY NEED A NEW OC NEXT YEAR OR WE SUCK AGAIN ON OFFENSE.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:26 am
“Defenses are just stacking the box and inviting Baker to throw deep.”
Baker Mayfield against two-high vs. single-high shells:
Completion Rate: 61.6%/54.3%
On-Target Rate: 74.7%/64.8%
ANY/A: 7.3/5.2
EPA/att: 0.10/(-0.18)
Success Rate: 48.3%/37.4%
December 24th, 2025 at 10:31 am
Just noise. Pretty hard to throw beyond 10 yards when all three interior linemen are bull rushed into Mayfield’s face. O line isn’t up to NFL standards.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:35 am
Grizzard will: 1. Run on first down with a scatback up the middle. 2. Throw a sideways pass that breaks down with no blocking or is too obvious to miss. 3. See a TE gain 9 on 3rd and 10. 4. Run up the middle from the 1 yard line five straight times with no play action. 5. Get 13 back and throw the most obvious low percentage jump ball in the corner of the end zone.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:36 am
Trevor Lawrence is all alone in fourth place in TD passes this year with 26. Baker Mayfield is tied for 11th place with 23 TD passes this year. Yes, injuries to an offensive line and receivers do affect a QBs play. But I’m convinced this year’s play calling, is more the culprit than injuries.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:37 am
As many have already mentioned here, I think play calling could be some of Mayfield’s problem. This is Grizzard first year as a play caller and I keep reading where Bowles’s saying stuff like, we need to go down field more, this individual need to get the ball more and so on. I am not a NFL personnel guy but, I AM JUST SAYING
December 24th, 2025 at 10:37 am
Why? How about because our Offensive coordinator is over his head. The offense hasn’t evolved, it wasn’t adjusted when we lost Evans and it’s not being changed now that we are healthy. This guy has a play sheet from week one. That’s not how this league works. I’m sure he would be a solid high school coordinator.
December 24th, 2025 at 10:55 am
Who was calling the offensive plays during the Mayfield MVP chants???
The same guy they’re throwing under the bus, cause Mayfield stinks
December 24th, 2025 at 10:57 am
From the western edge of civilization, your quarterback’s physic is fractured! Either Mayfield’s injuries are more complicated than anyone issues aware or the folks higher up the food chain has told others to keep it under lock and key. My opinion, if he is injured, medication is used to keep him playing. The meds are slowing his reaction time and decision making which leads to over throws and interceptions! If it is a mental distraction, it maybe nothing to do with football.
December 24th, 2025 at 11:09 am
There’s a saying, “what should be done eventually, must be done immediately.” Imagine how different this year would’ve been had Licht fired Bowles and replaced him w/ Coen. They loved Coen and knew he was a difference maker. But they tried to hold on to him as an OC instead of doing the hard thing.