The Race To 11
November 30th, 2025
At 7-5, the Bucs are gunning for a 12-win season.
An 11-win season by Tampa Bay will guarantee the Bucs win the NFC South (again). Yes, that’s the math.
With a little luck, the Bucs’ final game of two remaining against the Panthers, Week 18 at The Licht House, will be a meaningless contest that would let the Bucs rest banged up players.
The Panthers (7-6) have a bye next week while the Bucs host the slimy two-win Saints (2-10). Carolina’s final four games include those two Bucs games on their schedule, plus dates with the Saints and Seattle (9-3). The Bucs also will host Atlanta (4-8) and hit the road to play Miami (5-7).
As of now, per the New York Times/TheAthletic.com data charts and game simulators, the Bucs have a 73 percent shot at winning the division. Carolina is at 27 percent. Atlanta and the Saints are considered toast.
Can the Bucs get to 12? They’ll have to play a lot better than they did today.
Can the Bucs get to 11? Maybe.
Can the Bucs get to 10? Definitely.
November 30th, 2025 at 9:26 pm
10 with 2 losses to Carolina will probably mean missing the playoffs unless the Saints beat Carolina again. Bucs have zero margin for error, they lost that when Bowles was outcoached by New England and Buffalo.
November 30th, 2025 at 9:32 pm
We’ll be 8-5.
That’s the only thing I’m certain of.
506 Kirk Cousins
@ panthers
@ Miami
Panthers
Personally I think it’s a W, L, L, ?
November 30th, 2025 at 9:35 pm
Im a huge believer in taking things one week at a team. We got a little healthier today had some guys in field who could make plays. Let’s sure up our tackling keep getting better and see how it plays out. Right now only thing that matters is the Saints in Tampa. 8-5 basically means Carolina would have to sweep us to win the divsion. Lot better chance we sweep them!
November 30th, 2025 at 9:41 pm
Luved! Bowles ol’ defense strategy of protecting a two-touchdown-lead in the third Qtr: just let the opponent play pitch n’ catch for 76 yards in 6 plays for an easy, wide-open-receiver touchdown. Of course the receiver was all alone in the end zone; because Todd’s strict discipline teaches the defense to give up on the coverage if the opponent’s quarterback is scrambling. Oh ya, he’s got a million classic moves like this; too bad we didn’t get to see some time management decisions today to top it all off.
If the Cardinals won, they’re going to award Bowles the game ball.
November 30th, 2025 at 9:42 pm
agree withh Dan completely one game at a time
November 30th, 2025 at 9:44 pm
We can win all 5 remaining.
November 30th, 2025 at 9:46 pm
Doing all the playoff combos, and basically, so long as the Bucs don’t get swept by the Panthers AND so long as the Bucs beat the Saints, they’re basically in. With that said, they had better no lose 3 of 5 down the stretch, because even if they make it in, it won’t mean much.
Still figure they will split the Panthers, like I have since the day the schedule came out. That Falcons game worries me only because it’s a TNF game, but I think the Bucs can win it. But that Dolphins game looks tougher by the week – they’ve been a much better team lately, but hopefully by week 17 they’re just worrying about their offseason travel plans.
November 30th, 2025 at 9:50 pm
Dan – that’s a smart approach. Anything can happen, in the week, in the game, anywhere. Things can happen that change the dynamic.
That said, gun to your head/home on the line, do you think Todd Bowles can beat siriani, McVay, ben johnson or dan Campbell in the post season?
That’s really the only thing that matters. We’ll know the answer soon enough if we get there. And the problem is we all know what that answer is already.
I’d like to not know the answer to that question.
November 30th, 2025 at 9:54 pm
I could easily see the Bucs missing the playoffs this year.
November 30th, 2025 at 9:55 pm
Zyon McCollum plays cornerback like he’s on Lovie’s defense. He stinks.
November 30th, 2025 at 9:55 pm
Great point Rod if you study the analytics it becomes obvious we are still in great shape. Our projected record is 12-5 Carolina is 8-9 that’s a 4 game swing with 5 to go. Highest probability is we wrap this divsion up.
What I care about is seeing this team rebuild its confidence how awsome was it today to have some playmakers on the field? Let’s watch Bucky and Godwin continue to play into shape watch how much better we look as we get healthy.
Saying we are even getting Kancey back just keep the faith today was a nice first step in getting back on track.
We might just end of playing our best football at right time!
November 30th, 2025 at 10:05 pm
Dan the Bucs Fan – I don’t know what analytics you’re looking at, but no, I don’t think the Bucs win 12 or the Panthers only win 9.
My point was so long as the Bucs beat the Saints next week, even if they lost to Falcons and Dolphins, so long as they split with the Panthers, they’d likely still be in (assuming the Panthers lose to the Seahawks – if not the Bucs would be out).
Just saying the numbers still favor the Bucs — so long as they split with the Panthers. If they don’t – then the Bucs are in big time trouble — not to mention they wouldn’t deserve to be in the playoffs if they get swept by a divisional opponent in the last three weeks of the season.
But, one game at a time, the Bucs obviously need to win next week vs the Saints, then they’re 8-5 and things look a lot better.
November 30th, 2025 at 10:05 pm
Lol bucs fans:
1. We sweep carolina and win the division “the division was easy”..
2. The same fans, “Carolina is a good team, they can beat us”
3. The worst fans: Wants us to lose to carolina just for a chance to have bowles fired.
November 30th, 2025 at 10:06 pm
Least enjoyable winning season I can recall. Yech.
November 30th, 2025 at 10:19 pm
Dan is spot on. I’m not saying all is sunshine and lollipops, cuz its def not, but the Bucs are in a pretty strong position thants to their good start and cushion it brought. regardless of the vibes or how Carolina is playing. If the Bucs beat the saints, like everyone is saying, it basically means Carolina would need to sweep the Bucs and/or win out.. with the Bucs having a 2008 collapse.
November 30th, 2025 at 10:20 pm
12 and 5, said it last night. Asked to be called on it. My odds are getting better.
Rod — you going to call me on it?
November 30th, 2025 at 10:20 pm
We are not good. Maybe we get healthy. If we win it’s in spite of the coaching.
November 30th, 2025 at 10:25 pm
If we win the next 3 games, we win the Division.
November 30th, 2025 at 10:32 pm
No reason why Bucs can’t win at least 4 of the final games. Only things stopping them is lousy play calling and the dam##ed refs. I have been a Bucs fan for 2 many years to count. I’ve watched the Offense slowly improve. I could tear my hair out at the inane play calling by, yet, another OC. This team is getting back to close to 100%. Let the dam#ed dawgs out for crissakes!