Bucs’ Playoffs Probability Moves To 78 Percent
November 25th, 2025
Who’s buying playoff tickets for a home game at The Licht House?
Packers fans?
Yes, the computer nerds at the New York Times/The Athletic have a popular NFL playoffs probability program that runs many hundreds of simulations to determine teams’ likelihood of landing in the playoffs.
After the Panthers (6-6) showed the world what brutal quarterback play looks like last night at San Francisco, the Bucs’ postseason chances moved up to a 78 percent likelihood. And Tampa Bay has got a 77 percent shot at winning the division, per the Times/Athletic.
On Sunday, the Bucs host the three-win Cardinals while the Panthers welcome the high-flying Rams to Charlotte.
November 25th, 2025 at 8:43 am
I don’t want to hear the word playoffs associated with this lousy team. They have the worst HC in the league and the players are soft and brittle. Playoffs. LOL.
November 25th, 2025 at 8:45 am
Bucs need to win 3 or 4 more and the Division is theirs and the fans are tortured with Todd Blows for at least another year
Panthers are not beating the Rams or Seahawks, they are at least at 8 losses. The Aints already punked Carolina so who knows if they can pull that off.
If Bucs can’t win 3 or 4 of the last 6 they don’t deserve it
November 25th, 2025 at 8:50 am
What BucU said.
November 25th, 2025 at 8:50 am
We can’t keep relying on the Panthers to lose…although they will likely lose to the Rams.
We need to win our games…
Our losses to Eagles, Lions, NE, Bills & Rams….very good teams.
We seem to handle the poorer teams well.
November 25th, 2025 at 8:51 am
All the Panthers have to do is beat Toilet Bowels twice and the division is theirs.
The defense will make Young look like Montana in his prime.
Grizzard will throw right into the teeth of the defense.
The GM already punted on this season and went to the bar.
Fire Bowles now!
November 25th, 2025 at 8:53 am
Every year under Bowles, at least a 3 game losing streak.
Soft coverage by timid DBs who are never in frame.
No edge pass rush.
Ridiculous and embarrassing coverage by the Edge rushers who can’t put pressure on a QB and certainly can’t cover anyone.
But this year will be different. I thought.
I can see clearly now.
November 25th, 2025 at 8:58 am
There needs to be a major overhaul of the organization starting at the top.
Eff the playoffs…
November 25th, 2025 at 9:00 am
Carolina will not beat the Rams or Seahawks.Their ceiling is nine wins if they sweep the Buccaneers. Highly unlikely. Next year maybe.
November 25th, 2025 at 9:03 am
Another playoff run that Todd will failed to as he is 100% going to be out coached.
November 25th, 2025 at 9:14 am
Canales and the Panthers are a nice turnaround story but they are so up and down. I think they get to 8 wins but can’t steal the crappy South from the Bucs
November 25th, 2025 at 9:20 am
I think Todd gets fired if we don’t win a playoff game. Just getting into the dance won’t be enough. I also think if we win a playoff game and he is retained he will be required to bring in a d coordinator next year. Something has to change!
November 25th, 2025 at 9:21 am
Why are you complainers a fan of this team if you dont want to see us in the Playoffs? Walk the plank. We’re pirates, let us in there and we’ll plunder your championship. Go Bucs. Every week.
November 25th, 2025 at 9:22 am
winning the nfc south with this team vs the competition is really not anything to write home to mom about.
knowing this team and their culture of just doing enough but nothing more it will come down to the wire like last year.
these “dawgs” are like yappy purse puppies, loud on blogs and social media but suspect play, suspect coaching and suspect front office that everyone now sees as pretenders.
November 25th, 2025 at 9:31 am
Bucs just need 10Wins. As fan since 1976 all you can ask for is to get into the playoffs the whole lets not go is for loosers …How did not going to the playoffs work from 1983-1997 ? how about 2009 to 2020 ? Did we get better each by not going to the playoffs?
November 25th, 2025 at 9:37 am
Pointless to back into the playoffs to play in front of an empty stadium or full of opposing fans. No thank you. Fire Bowles!
November 25th, 2025 at 9:41 am
Panthers still have to play the Rams and Seattle. Unless they win one of those and sweep us, we are gonna sneak into the playoffs again and be stuck with Turtle Todd for at least one more year.
November 25th, 2025 at 9:43 am
JOE – why the secrecy with Hassan Reddick??? How can they not let us know his status…
November 25th, 2025 at 9:47 am
So many non-Bucs fans here it’s crazy. The Bucs had a mid-season slide mostly due to injuries. They were able to beat a bunch of average teams even without our best offensive talent, but once they hit the best ones without our playmaking talent we fell short. Players need to come back and SOON.
And they will.
November 25th, 2025 at 9:52 am
We were even competitive with Buffalo and New England without WR 1,2,3. That’s crazy when you think about it. Imagine if we HAD THEM at full health!
November 25th, 2025 at 9:53 am
BucU Says:
November 25th, 2025 at 8:43 am
I don’t want to hear the word playoffs associated with this lousy team. They have the worst HC in the league and the players are soft and brittle. Playoffs. LOL.*************************man I could not of said it better myself, we are far from being a lock to make the playoffs. Even if we make the playoffs then we will certainly lose round 1 and out. If we make the playoffs then we are saddled with Bowles for another mediocre season. Year after year we are stuck with this sht, we need a dynamic coach–honestly this team should of been nimble and pounced on Liam Coen. So as usual, we will lose in the playoffs and I will have to root for another team to win and specific teams to lose. Meanwhile the Bucs season is over.
November 25th, 2025 at 9:57 am
This shows how lucky the Bucs are to be in NFC South…Lucky Bucs. The only threat is the Panters but the Niners will take em down tonite. This year is 80 percent .500 will with the division. Another replay and Bowles returns next year for more exciting NFL parity fun. This is all getting cumbersome.
November 25th, 2025 at 10:00 am
Bwahahahahaa
Playoffs?!?!
Playoffs?!?!
This team?!?!?!?
Bwahahahahaa
Have you been watching?
It’s not about playoffs anymore
It’s about getting to the NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
anything else is Fools Gold
November 25th, 2025 at 10:04 am
@HC Grover I think you lost a day the 49ers already beat the Panthers yesterday.
November 25th, 2025 at 10:06 am
Carolina’s play tells me that they probably are a year away. Last night, San fran tried to give them the game and Bryce Hall could not take advantage of the gifts. Canales had a lot of questionable calls on O as well. Bucs can probably back into the playoffs which IMHO might be the worst thing to happen as it means us fans will be stuck with Bowles for one more season. If Carolina could somehow go 4-1 down the stretch (unlikely) and win the division, that could force the Glazers to do something as they will be sore about losing that wildcard home game revenue. Another possibility, if Bowles D continues to give up and average of 35 points a game down the stretch, they could make Bowles give up DC duties which could make him resign. We shall see.
November 25th, 2025 at 10:12 am
Since the league badly wants a week 18 added, this Bucs team are a great example of what the league should do – add an extra week of playoffs. Lowest seeded division winner plus 3 wild cards. That creates 4 week 18 games and crappy teams like this year’s Bucs have to play their way in.
November 25th, 2025 at 10:22 am
Hopefully Bucs win 10 straight, Bowles retires with a ring. Win/win for everybody. Of course the odds of that happening are slim to none, but a fan can dream. I’ll never root for my team to lose. I do think they fire Bowles if we miss playoffs, or back in at 9-8 with a loss in the WC round. I think 10-7 with a loss in the WC round they’ll have that conversation. Glazers have proven they’ve willing to pay a coach to sit home. 11-6 or better and I believe his job is safe.
November 25th, 2025 at 10:34 am
it is 100% likely that we will still win the NFC South and make the playoffs. We will then get blown off the field by any of the other legit NFC teams.
November 25th, 2025 at 10:39 am
Bucky…..Bucky….Bucky
November 25th, 2025 at 10:56 am
More like 98%.
Listen, I know there are a lot of fake fans here…and there are some naysayers here who use multiple usernames to make it seem like there are more naysayers than there actually are.
Fake fans are very easy to spot. Look for keywords like “Clean House”, “Backing into the playoffs”, “lousy team”, or “fire Bowles!”
Here are simple truths:
REMAINING SCHEDULES
🏈 Buccaneers (6-5): Cardinals (3-8), Saints (2-9), Falcons (4-7), Panthers (6-6), Dolphins (4-7), Panthers (6-6)
FACING NO TEAMS OVER .500
🏈 Panthers (6-6): Rams (9-2), Bye, Saints (2-9), Bucs (6-5), Seahawks (6-3), Bucs (6-5)
FACING 3 TEAMS OVER .500 (one twice) and a bye (LOSS)
(They will be lucky to win one more game)
🏈 Falcons (4-7): Jets (2-9), Seahawks (6-3), Bucs (6-5), Cardinals (3-8), Rams (9-2), Saints (2-9)
FACING 3 TEAMS OVER .500
(Not a threat)
🏈 Saints (2-9): Dolphins (4-7), Bucs (6-5), Panthers (6-6), Jets (2-9), Titans (1-10), Falcons (4-7)
FACING 1 TEAM OVER .500
(Not a threat, tanking for #2 pick)
So, at worse we go into the playoffs with 11 wins, very possible 12 wins. That’s NOT backing into the playoffs.
November 25th, 2025 at 10:56 am
I sure hope we are in the play offs too.
Tampabaybucfan – absolutely agree. We can’t keep on counting on other teams to lose.
November 25th, 2025 at 10:57 am
Thank God football games can actually be won and lost on computers these days. If we actually had to play the games on the field our odds would be about 50/50.
November 25th, 2025 at 11:00 am
Very likely the Bucs will be 9-5 when we face the Panthers the first time. Panthers will be 7-7.
It will be even worse for the Panthers the second time we face them.
November 25th, 2025 at 11:01 am
Keep in mind…the Panthers have not had their bye week yet. So their record is inflated.
November 25th, 2025 at 11:15 am
Weebs10
I 1000% AGREE
bowles only survives if:
BUCS win a playoff game
brings in a DC & Special Teams coach
GO BUCS!!!!
November 25th, 2025 at 11:31 am
Yeah, I was an optimist, too. That ended with the dung show in LA when those clueless clown DBs looked like Middle School kids against men. McCollum is hideous. Morrison is frightened. Those two alone messed up the Defense.
Then you have Braswell and Diaby, the vacant tenants. David, the octogenarian.
I support this team. They did not.
Why am I supposed to blindly support and yell rah rah after that embarrassment?
No. They punched their own ticket.
Who cares if they make the playoffs? They have proven against Detroit, Philly, NE, Buffalo and the Rams that THEY CANNOT COMPETE.
November 25th, 2025 at 11:40 am
this season other than Seattle and San Francisco have the Bucs beaten any team with a winning record when they played? Looks like to me the Bucs will struggle against equal or better teams as long as Jason and Todd run the ship.
November 25th, 2025 at 11:47 am
It’s not who’s hot in the beginning of the year ,,, it’s not who’s hot in the middle of year ,,, it’s who’s hot at the end ,,, so let’s get hot ,, get Bucky , Ben, Big Mike , CG, Dean, Reddick, JMac, Kancey and let’s see ,,, yea we lost to some good teams ,, and yea we beat some good teams so let’s see what the next 6 bring us
November 25th, 2025 at 12:18 pm
BucU Says is spot on! This is a team in a freefall. Licht’s roster is being exposed for what it is, weak and below average players, especially on defense. Bowles has shown time and time again he’s not the right coach for this team and his defensive scheme and game day coaching is horrible. The Glazers fired Dungy for achieving much more. The fear of regressing to the dark days should not obscure the fact this team needs a new coaching staff and lots of new players.
November 25th, 2025 at 12:21 pm
Again, the Bucs were very competitive with New England and Buffalo without our WR 1,2,3! That’s amazing! Wait till they come back 100%!
November 25th, 2025 at 12:25 pm
@BucU
I’ve always said that about them, too! This is on him the Glazers & the front office.
November 25th, 2025 at 12:27 pm
ModHairKen Says
“Yeah, I was an optimist, too. That ended with the dung show in LA…”
LIAR!
From the poll:
ModHairKen Says:
November 23rd, 2025 at 4:58 pm
“No. They can’t possibly beat the Rams. It was an assault on climate change to even waste the jet fuel to fly out there.”
Last I checked, that’s not optimism.
They should just forfeit.
November 25th, 2025 at 12:28 pm
“They should just forfeit.”
Was a quote from you too.
November 25th, 2025 at 12:32 pm
Will the Bucs have the courage to fire Bowles? Nope….
November 25th, 2025 at 1:15 pm
StPeteMatt … ‘We were even competitive with Buffalo and New England without WR 1,2,3.’
Competitive? Our defense gave up 44 pts to the Bills & 28 pts to the Patriots. That means that our offense would’ve had to score at least 74 points to win both games … 37 PPG. We would’ve been hard-pressed to accomplish that even with WR 1, 2 & 3 in our lineup.
Our defense has now given up 106 pts in just the last 3 games. Yes, to playoff-bound teams, but 106 pts nonetheless. How many playoff teams do you remember Matt who gave up an average of over 35 PPG in the playoffs & became SB champion?
November 25th, 2025 at 1:45 pm
MAKE OR BREAK YEAR
Most of us gave Bowles a pass for the last two years because the Bucs were in salary cap hell. This was his year to show real improvement.
THREE YEARS SAME OLD
Start fast, die in the middle, lose in Prime Time, mad dash to the finish. He’s an old dog that can’t learn new tricks.
TIME TO MOVE ON
Moving on from Bowles could spark a lot of change.
>Bowles – Gone
>Grizz – Gone
>Baker – Resign for 2-3 Years
>Evans – ?
>LVD – ?
>Godwin – Trade
>Hall – Gone
>Otton – Gone
November 25th, 2025 at 2:14 pm
I wish all the people claiming to have given up on the Bucs would go cold turkey and stop clogging the comments columns. And all those who wish Bowles would go away would teach him by example. And those who have hallucinations like the one who saw Morrison in the Rams game would restrict their condemnations to the real world. I just posit these as wishes since I believe in free speech; it’s the only 100% valid exposer of hypocrites.
November 25th, 2025 at 2:19 pm
NFL.com = 85% PLAYOFF PROBABILITY
November 25th, 2025 at 3:03 pm
Of course the playoff selection committee is going to give us a spot, after all we’re the week 6 ESPN Power Poll champs! And we got the week 6 MVP at QB! It’s in the bag!
November 25th, 2025 at 3:28 pm
Playoffs? Many years ago in the dark dark days. Yeah this Organization needed any spark to gain confidence. We’re way post that now. I see no benefit of just squeaking into the playoffs, only to get our breaks beat off in the 1st round.
November 25th, 2025 at 3:32 pm
Been seeing a lot of the back of #54’s jersey this year
November 25th, 2025 at 4:40 pm
Hi DR that’s a lot but I think the defense plays better when the offense plays better. Our own version of complementary football. We would have outscored both teams with all our wide receivers. And certainly put up a better fight against the Rams. Raises morale to have a bunch of superstars playing on offense. Let’s get them back and see what happens!
November 25th, 2025 at 5:56 pm
All our receivers were injured by targeting too IMO. Tipping McMillan upside-down, hip drop on Godwin and diving early and holding Evans to land on him. When is the NFL going to intervene in this madness? It’s not just bad luck they are out!
November 25th, 2025 at 5:57 pm
Defense Rules – So if the Patriots RB gets the first down and takes a knee, like he’s coached to do, and the Pats run out the clock and the defense only gives up 21 points, then they’re great. But because he scored, which is what you want to happen as a Bucs fan, since it was the only way to get the ball back and not have the game over, you think it’s a bad game?
The Bucs defense gave Baker the ball 3 times in a row in the 4th quarter with a chance to take the lead, and the offense got zero points.
The defense played a good game vs the Pats. Just saying they gave up 28 is so lazy, it’s way beneath you.
November 25th, 2025 at 7:54 pm
Some perspective: as of this weeks all 5 Buc losses and two of their wins are over top 10 rated teams. Per ESPN, the losses were to the 1,2,4,8 and 10th ranked teams and the Bucs have wins over the 5th and 9th ranked teams. Think about it: the Bucs have played the 1,2,4, 5, 8, 9, and 10 ranked teams, that’s 7 out of 10 of this weeks power ranking, 12 weeks into the 17 game schedule.
I can’t remember a tougher start to a season from a schedule perspective. Considering the injuries and poor special teams play early on, the Bucs have done well to still be leading the division at 6-5.
The Panthers play the Rams this weekend without Horn, Thornton and Moehrig. I don’t see a win for Carolina, considering they couldn’t beat the Niners with Purdy throwing three int’s. The panthers can run on the Rams, but I don’t see them out scoring Stafford.
November 25th, 2025 at 8:47 pm
Sad times when the fans are rooting for loses just to get a new coach. Just a couple months ago people were talking about how we going to lose Grizz and pay Baker 60 mil a year? I guess times change fast in football
November 25th, 2025 at 10:01 pm
I think a lot of the anti Bowles crowd are bots. There can’t be that many real Buc fans that want yet another lost decade.
November 25th, 2025 at 11:03 pm
Wow this fan base is embarrassing. Why is it so hard to understand some of us want to a watch a great team, not a team that can only beat bad teams and will be embarrassed in the playoffs.
November 25th, 2025 at 11:25 pm
View from 132 Says:
November 25th, 2025 at 11:03 pm
Wow this fan base is embarrassing. Why is it so hard to understand some of us want to a watch a great team, not a team that can only beat bad teams and will be embarrassed in the playoffs.
———–
Let me guess, you became a fan in 2020?
Because anyone who has been a longtime Bucs fan knows exactly what it’s like to be the bad team that is always being beat, and celebrating if you’re not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by mid-November and spending Thanksgiving talking about the draft.
You ladies are crying while the team is in first place playing with an ALL-PRO team on the IR.
Get lost kiddo. You’ll be the first one to abandon ship the second they start a rebuild as you’ll tell everyone how life is too short, then go jump on another bandwagon.