Outkicking Your Coverage
October 19th, 2025
Rally king.
No, this is not about the Bucs’ punt team.
Nor is it about Joe somehow winding up with Rachel Watson and a bottle of Eagle Rare.
The Bucs really are outkicking their coverage, as in pulling rabbits out of a hat. And Joe assumes when a stat geek reads the following, he or she will scream, “Regression to the mean!”
For normal folks, that means coming back down to earth.
In the NFL, teams that fall behind in games, have a winning percentage this season of .390 in those games, per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis.
How are the Bucs doing when they fall behind? In those same games, the Bucs are winning at an absurd .833 winning percentage, the best in the NFL.
That’s more than double the league average.
So will the Bucs come back down to earth (regression to the mean) on Monday? Well, try not to fall behind.
Naturally, Joe hopes this hot streak continues.
October 19th, 2025 at 12:12 am
This is gunna be a tough game. But I think we got this folks.
October 19th, 2025 at 12:47 am
I think one main reason regression happens is because teams lose players to injury. However, that’s already happening. If we get Evans, Egbuka, Morrison, and McCollum, then we are gaining players. Sure, some of them won’t be 100%, but they’re percentages better than the 3rd, 4th, or 5th best player still standing.
I think we can leverage this. Not sure it will be enough, but Inwont bet against Baker or this team.
October 19th, 2025 at 12:48 am
Baker is playing at an incredible level. Coming from the king of critical (Baker no exception), I don’t see much that would make me think that’s going to change anytime soon, aka regression to the mean.
I think the matchup on Monday actually favors us.
If we don’t make mistakes and the defense plays like it did in the second half of the 49ers game, we will win.
Baker will have more “Baker moments” and further cement his claim for MVP, in front of a national audience.
6-1
October 19th, 2025 at 1:00 am
Hopefully the Lions backup DB’s that have to play this week will look like the Bucs guys who had to do that last year.
October 19th, 2025 at 2:46 am
Regression to the mean? We’ve survived offensive line injuries to two starters, special teams disasters (which seem to have been fixed), the loss of our top 4 receivers and our starting running back. We weren’t playing over our heads. We have a really deep and talented roster at all of the skilled positions and on both sides of the line.
I know a lot of you don’t want to hear this, but we also have had incredible coaching. Bowles should be a coach of the year candidate. There will be no regression. Monday night you will see extreme a-gression!
October 19th, 2025 at 6:03 am
Could it be that they are beating the refs attempts to hand the game to their opponents? They fall behind inferior teams becasue of… insert Bogus penalties here.
Also for some reason we do not play defense in the first half and it kind of paints a different picure to me.
If we can keep the refs honest and play completer game it may be we get a lead most of the time. Sure would make things alot easier on my old ticker. LOL
Go Bucs!
October 19th, 2025 at 6:29 am
With four healthy corners, I’m hoping Todd brings more pressure earlier on Goff. If we allow Goff to sit in the pocket, go through his progressions, plant and throw.. he will kill us. Move him off of his mark and knock him down a couple times and he becomes very pedestrian.
October 19th, 2025 at 7:36 am
Eagle Rare….mmmmm. Took a tour of the Buffalo Trace distillery last year and they were selling a bottle for $40, only one per person. But that stuff is…..
Oh wait, sorry. Go Bucs. Forgot where I was for a minute.
October 19th, 2025 at 7:44 am
White Tiger, Joey Galloway is one of my sons all time favorites. Joe, I’ve got 2 bottles of E.H. Taylor small batch. Come on over after the Super Bowl. We’ll Crack one
October 19th, 2025 at 7:51 am
Something special is undeniably going on for us right now. Nascent yes, random maybe. But it’s more than the win-loss record. It starts with the guy captioned in this article. It continues with guys like Tez and Dean last week, and tomorrow for whomever’s turn it is next. The whole is just plainly greater than the sum of the parts.
October 19th, 2025 at 9:00 am
The game is not over until Baking with Grizz say so!
Let’s Go!!!!
October 19th, 2025 at 9:10 am
2 games were only close because of special teams break downs. The other 3 were close because of a soft defense. I recall one tv talking head saying defenses get better as the season goes on because of more tape. With the brilliant minds of Baker and grizz plus an injury induced rotating cast of players the Bucs,offense,may never get figured out.
October 19th, 2025 at 9:25 am
I got a feeling that after the bye week we’re going to start blowing the doors off people.
October 19th, 2025 at 10:16 am
Some real comedy in this thread. Either that or a lot of morons.
October 19th, 2025 at 10:35 am
DungyDance. That’s what it is looking like. Well said. The Rams are beating the Jags by 3 touchdowns. Ouch.
October 19th, 2025 at 10:48 am
What is Eagle Rare? I agree that it looks like STeams are fixing their boo-boos. I’m more worried about the zebs. Bucs have to be ready for them. Joe, is the team flying up to Motown today? 6-1, Bucs!!